Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?" Event volume totals $286M across outcomes, with $5 traded in the last 24 hours. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Abiy Ahmed" at 97.2% and $5 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?)" at 20.0% and $192K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? - Gedion Timothewos
$0
Highest implied
F1 Constructors' Champion - Mercedes
98.1%
Top priced
F1 Constructors' Champion - Mercedes
98.1%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
F1 Constructors' Champion - Mercedes
98.1%
$148
B1
Lead market: Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms - Democrats Sweep leads the desk at 65.0% with $454K traded.
Lead stories
Why do some US states matter more than others in US midterm elections ?
Why do some US states matter more than others in US midterm elections ?. Schoen : Will enthusiasm gap really help the Dems ?. How are US midterms different from presidential elections ? What to know before 2026 polls.
Sources: moneycontrol.com, bostonherald.com, economictimes.indiatimes.com
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? - Yes leads the desk at 20.0% with $192K traded.
Lead stories
Trump says that Iran wants a Strait of Hormuz deal because theyre dying
Trump says that Iran wants a Strait of Hormuz deal because theyre dying. Trump says that Iran wants a Strait of Hormuz deal because theyre dying. Trump says that Iran wants a Strait of Hormuz deal because theyre dying.
Sources: komonews.com, wcti12.com,
B4
Lead market: Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...? - December 31, 2027 leads the desk at 10.0% with $470K traded.
Lead stories
Anthropic spending big after $42B losses on AI | The Arkansas Democrat - Gazette
Anthropic spending big after $42B losses on AI | The Arkansas Democrat - Gazette. Anthropic path from AI startup to industry - defining IPO. Exclusive - Anthropic IPO prospectus shows sweeping AI vision , surging costs.
Sources: arkansasonline.com, thestar.com.my, thestar.com.my
Anthropic IPO prospectus shows sweeping AI vision , surging costs
Anthropic IPO prospectus shows sweeping AI vision , surging costs. Anthropic IPO prospectus shows sweeping AI vision , surging costs. Surging revenue , widening losses and a sweeping AI vision : Inside Anthropic IPO prospectus.
B5
Lead market: Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 leads the desk at 3.0% with $118K traded.
Lead stories
SS Rajamouli marks 25 years in cinema : From Baahubali to Varanasi , a look at his journey
SS Rajamouli marks 25 years in cinema : From Baahubali to Varanasi , a look at his journey. Keerthy Suresh makes Milan Fashion Week debut at Giorgio Armani show in sleek grey tailoring. Celebs , Brands & Designers Dominate Atlanta Fashion Week.
Sources: moneycontrol.com, bollywoodhungama.com, blackamericaweb.com
B6
Lead market: What price will Bitcoin hit September 28-October 4? - ↑ 88,000 leads the desk at 3.3% with $39K traded.
Lead stories
Why Does the Price of Bitcoin Keep Going Up ? The Answer Might Surprise You .
Why Does the Price of Bitcoin Keep Going Up ? The Answer Might Surprise You .. Is It Too Late to Buy Bitcoin After a 32 % Rally in Two Months ?. Wall Street Investment Firm Bernstein Thinks Bitcoin Could Hit $300 , 000 by 2029 . Is Bitcoin Now a Buy ?.
Sources: fool.com, 247wallst.com, fool.com
B7
Lead market: MLB World Series Champion 2026 - Chicago White Sox leads the desk at 7.1% with $192K traded.
Lead stories
The MLB Playoff saves leader quiz
The MLB Playoff saves leader quiz. MLB - best Brewers score in bunches but rarely homer , upending baseball launch - angle revolution | The Arkansas Dem.... List of MLB teams that have never won the World Series – NBC 5 Dallas - Fort Worth.
Sources: yardbarker.com, arkansasonline.com, nbcdfw.com
England v Czech Republic : Czechs prepare for Wembley 30 years after Euro 96
England v Czech Republic : Czechs prepare for Wembley 30 years after Euro 96. Kylian Mbappe winning the Ballon dOr wont actually mean anything. Messi finalises acquisition of second Spanish lower league club.
B8
Lead market: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 2.5% with $22K traded.
Lead stories
When the Climate Shifts , So Do the Pathogens ( And So Should We )
When the Climate Shifts , So Do the Pathogens ( And So Should We ).
Sources: fas.org
From NIMBY to PIMFY : South Korea community - based approach to climate change mitigation
From NIMBY to PIMFY : South Korea community - based approach to climate change mitigation. Farming and food unprepared for global warming , says advisory council. SCVNews . com | California Cuts Climate Emissions As Economy Keeps Growing.
Sources: ft.lk, irishtimes.com,
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
98.1%
$6K
US military to guard midterms after Donald Trump gutted agency that protects elections.
Sources: timesofindia.indiatimes.com
Iran files formal protest with UN aviation watchdog over US sanctions
Iran files formal protest with UN aviation watchdog over US sanctions.
Sources: moneycontrol.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms - Democrats Sweep at 65.0% with $454K traded.
Top volume remains in Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms - Democrats Sweep.
Event leaders
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Top volume & odds: Democrats Sweep | 65.0% | $454K
Top volume: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 36.0% | $451K
Top odds: Flávio Bolsonaro | 64.1%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?) | 17.0% | $313K
Putin out as President of Russia by end of 2026?
Top volume: December 31, 2026 | 2.6% | $278K
Top odds: June 30, 2027 | 11.0%
Next French Presidential Election
Top volume: David Lisnard | 9.3% | $245K
Top odds: Marine Le Pen | 45.1%
Popular events
15.5%
0.0pp
$13M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $709M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $712M0%
Strong U . S . job gains signal Fed hike as Trump levels new rate - cut demand
Strong U . S . job gains signal Fed hike as Trump levels new rate - cut demand. Fed rate hike back in focus after strong jobs report. UBS raises Fed interest - rate forecast to two hikes in 2026.
Sources: theglobeandmail.com, aol.com, aol.com
Fed October Odds : Hold Hits 66 %, but Is a Hike Just Delayed ?
Fed October Odds : Hold Hits 66 %, but Is a Hike Just Delayed ?. Key Events This Week : Jobs , Core PCE And ISM. Trump Could Target Three Fed Governors.
Sources: coinspeaker.com, zerohedge.com, politicalwire.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? - Yes at 20.0% with $192K traded.
Top volume remains in Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? - Yes.
Lead event
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? - Yes
Trading at 20.0% with $192K in volume.
Event leaders
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?) | 20.0% | $192K
Anthropic announces bankruptcy by...?
Top volume: December 31, 2027 | 10.0% | $72K
Top odds: December 31, 2029 | 22.0%
Top volume & odds: No change | 83.0% | $65K
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will GameStop acquire eBay?) | 7.0% | $21K
Sources: bdnews24.com, arynews.tv, businesstimes.com.sg
Surging revenue , widening losses and a sweeping AI vision : Inside Anthropic IPO prospectus
Surging revenue , widening losses and a sweeping AI vision : Inside Anthropic IPO prospectus. Anthropic IPO prospectus shows sweeping AI vision , surging costs. Anthropic IPO : Can its $2 trillion valuation survive a $42 billion loss and massive AI spending ?.
Sources: businesstimes.com.sg, thehindubusinessline.com, hindustantimes.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...? - December 31, 2027 at 10.0% with $470K traded.
Top volume remains in Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...? - December 31, 2027.
Lead event
Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...? - December 31, 2027
Trading at 10.0% with $470K in volume.
Event leaders
Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?
Top volume: December 31, 2027 | 10.0% | $470K
Top odds: December 31, 2028 | 16.0%
Which company has the best AI model end of October?
Top volume & odds: Google | 63.6% | $39K
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
Top volume: ↑$5.0T | 4.7% | $13K
Top odds: ↑$1.5T | 94.0%
Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Top volume & odds: Anthropic | 53.0% | $9K
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Anthropic | 59.9% | $8K
1 year ago today : 4 killed , several injured in shooting , fire at Grand Blanc Township church. Nollywood actor Ricardo Agbor survives car crash. Nollywood actor Ricardo Agbor involved in ghastly car accident.
Sources: clickondetroit.com, punchng.com, pmnewsnigeria.com
Spider - Man : Brand New Day Update Confirms Cut Daredevil Character Scene Is in Rerelease - Comic Book Movies and Su.... Deadline. Spider - Man : Brand New Day Re - Release In Works With Extra Footage.
Sources: superherohype.com, deadline.com, deadline.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 at 3.0% with $118K traded.
Top volume remains in Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31.
Lead event
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31
Trading at 3.0% with $118K in volume.
Event leaders
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 3.0% | $118K
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 1.4% | $8K
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Top volume: Avengers: Doomsday | 4.5% | $5K
Top odds: Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 96.0%
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
Top volume & odds: 1 | 73.0% | $2K
New bull for Bitcoin – Citigroup changes the game with a $113 , 000 price target. PYMNTS | Crypto Lost Its Clarity . Industry and Government Are Rebuild …. Crypto Firms Spent $8 Million Lobbying For The CLARITY Act . The Effort Failed ..
Sources: bankingnews.gr, pymnts.com, ibtimes.com
Bitcoin Crossed $85 , 000 on Cooler Inflation Data , Then Lost It the Same Day . Why Does Bitcoin Keep Failing at $85.... Is Bitcoin a Good Investment Right Now After a 42 % Quarter ?. Wall Street Investment Firm Bernstein Thinks Bitcoin Could Hit $300 , 000 by 2029 . Is Bitcoin Now a Buy ?.
Sources: 247wallst.com, aol.com, aol.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by What price will Bitcoin hit September 28-October 4? - ↑ 88,000 at 3.3% with $39K traded.
Top volume remains in What price will Bitcoin hit September 28-October 4? - ↑ 88,000.
Lead event
What price will Bitcoin hit September 28-October 4? - ↑ 88,000
Trading at 3.3% with $39K in volume.
Event leaders
What price will Bitcoin hit September 28-October 4?
Top volume: ↑ 88,000 | 3.3% | $39K
Top odds: ↑ 86,000 | 16.0%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?) | 5.1% | $39K
Popular events
Sources: bbc.co.uk, fourfourtwo.com, jamaicaobserver.com
The A . L . Batting Champion quiz
The A . L . Batting Champion quiz. List of MLB teams that have never won the World Series – NBC4 Washington. Tom Krasovic : Mark my words this is the Padre year to win it all.
Sources: yardbarker.com, nbcwashington.com, sandiegouniontribune.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by MLB World Series Champion 2026 - Chicago White Sox at 7.1% with $192K traded.
Top volume remains in MLB World Series Champion 2026 - Chicago White Sox.
Event leaders
MLB World Series Champion 2026
Top volume: Chicago White Sox | 7.1% | $192K
Top odds: Los Angeles Dodgers | 36.0%
Top volume & odds: Lamine Yamal | 49.5% | $75K
MLB: 2026 American League Champion
Top volume: Chicago White Sox | 21.6% | $33K
Top odds: Tampa Bay Rays | 46.9%
Top volume & odds: Colts | 67.0% | $18K
Popular events
Digital companies are getting greener , but AI is making climate targets harder to achieve
Digital companies are getting greener , but AI is making climate targets harder to achieve. Our food system is vulnerable to El Niño , warns united kingdom climate minister. Updated Oʻahu climate plan says resident choices key to curbing emissions.
Sources: digitaljournal.com, newscientist.com, hawaiipublicradio.org
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes at 2.5% with $22K traded.
Top volume remains in Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?) | 2.5% | $22K
Popular events
+$10,744
+$8,646
+$2,134
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
Leaderboard