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News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?" Event volume totals $286M across outcomes, with $33 traded in the last 24 hours. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Abiy Ahmed" at 97.2% and $12 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Fed Decision in October?" Highest implied odds are for "No change" at 67.0%, with top volume on "25 bps increase" at 33.0% and $618K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? - Gedion Timothewos
$0
Highest implied
F1 Constructors' Champion - Mercedes
98.4%
Top priced
F1 Constructors' Champion - Mercedes
98.4%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
F1 Constructors' Champion - Mercedes
98.4%
$388
B1
Lead market: Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? - Benjamin Netanyahu leads the desk at 33.0% with $189K traded.
Lead stories
US coordinating very closely with Israeli counterparts on flydubai incident , attorney general says
US coordinating very closely with Israeli counterparts on flydubai incident , attorney general says. Lapid Says Flydubai Attack Was Not Mentioned In Netanyahu Briefing ; Senior Official Says He Was Warned Of Major Over.... NPR Coverage of Netanyahu at UN Highlights Anti - Israel Bias and Key Omissions.
Sources: middleeasteye.net, theyeshivaworld.com, newsbusters.org
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B
B3
Lead market: Fed Decision in October? - 25 bps increase leads the desk at 33.0% with $618K traded.
Lead stories
Should you wait until after the September Fed meeting to invest in gold ?
Should you wait until after the September Fed meeting to invest in gold ?. Commentary : The Fed credibility depends on resisting politics , not playing it. Small CPI surprise could trigger big Fed rate decision.
Sources: cbsnews.com, timesleader.com, finance.yahoo.com
Oil tanker hit by unknown projectile in Strait of Hormuz : Maritime agency
Oil tanker hit by unknown projectile in Strait of Hormuz : Maritime agency. Trump doesnt know if Iran is going to give up yet. Trump doesnt know if Iran is going to give up yet.
B4
Lead market: Which company has best AI model end of 2026? - Anthropic leads the desk at 56.0% with $38K traded.
Lead stories
Taxpayers Have Been Subsidizing Meta AI Data Centers : Report
Taxpayers Have Been Subsidizing Meta AI Data Centers : Report. OpenAI agents leak over 50 ChatGPT user images online in latest example of rogue activity.
Sources: aol.com, moneycontrol.com
5 Smartphones With Better Battery Life Than The Google Pixel 11 Pro
5 Smartphones With Better Battery Life Than The Google Pixel 11 Pro. Here how to keep your chats out of AI training. Here how to keep your chats out of AI training.
Sources: ,
B5
Lead market: Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 leads the desk at 3.4% with $24K traded.
Lead stories
Even Kate Middleton may not be able to save Tom Cruise Oscar chances
Even Kate Middleton may not be able to save Tom Cruise Oscar chances. Why Neon put a Korean - language thriller in 1 , 500 US theaters. Rwanda Icon Awards to Celebrate Top Creative , Sporting Talent.
Sources: marinij.com, lowellsun.com, allafrica.com
UniteUS Revival Reaches Miami as Hundreds More Students Go All In With Jesus
UniteUS Revival Reaches Miami as Hundreds More Students Go All In With Jesus. The Cost of Discipleship - Leading The Way - Devotional for September 30. God Provided Protection | Philstar . com.
Sources:
B6
Lead market: Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 5.0% with $89K traded.
Lead stories
Brian Okin Predicts End Of High - Stakes Las Vegas Poker
Brian Okin Predicts End Of High - Stakes Las Vegas Poker. Companies upset as states delay labour codes adoption. Senate unveils deal to cut permitting red tape to boost energy projects.
Sources: cardplayer.com, economictimes.indiatimes.com, washingtonexaminer.com
B7
Lead market: Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 - Lamine Yamal leads the desk at 43.4% with $76K traded.
Lead stories
Ronaldo quits Portugal camp ahead of Denmark clash , promising to reveal the truth
Ronaldo quits Portugal camp ahead of Denmark clash , promising to reveal the truth. Ronaldo leaves Portugal camp as coach denies rift. Very Interesting - Rangers Star NT Decision Welcomed.
Sources: euronews.com, thenationonlineng.net, insidefutbol.com
Colorado youth earn $506 , 000 at state fair livestock auction
Colorado youth earn $506 , 000 at state fair livestock auction. Stephen A . Smith catfished by fake Cari Champion.
B8
Lead market: Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑5k leads the desk at 88.0% with $874 traded.
Lead stories
Past emissions will continue warming the planet for decades
Past emissions will continue warming the planet for decades. The Sustainability Pendulum Wont Land Where It Started. Konecranes sets new long - term climate ambition that supports its customer industrie decarbonization efforts.
Sources: futurity.org, 3blmedia.com, hellenicshippingnews.com
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
97.7%
$14
Texas Republican Bo French under fire for calling for the execution of political opponents and not even his own party.... Quebec election : French - only voter guides prompted 160 complaints in five days. Andy Burnham declines to rule out manifesto bid to rejoin EU.
Sources: themarysue.com, cp24.com, yorkpress.co.uk
What to know about the viral claim about Brazil patron saint jolting a tight presidential race
What to know about the viral claim about Brazil patron saint jolting a tight presidential race. What to know about the viral claim about Brazil patron saint jolting a tight presidential race. What to know about the viral claim about Brazil patron saint jolting a tight presidential race.
Sources: mercurynews.com, bostonherald.com, thegazette.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? - Benjamin Netanyahu at 33.0% with $189K traded.
Top volume remains in Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? - Benjamin Netanyahu.
Lead event
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? - Benjamin Netanyahu
Trading at 33.0% with $189K in volume.
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
33.0%
—
$189K
—
Event leaders
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Top volume: Benjamin Netanyahu | 33.0% | $189K
Top odds: Gadi Eizenkot | 47.5%
Next French Presidential Election
Top volume: David Lisnard | 6.9% | $160K
Top odds: Marine Le Pen | 43.2%
Top volume & odds: Flávio Bolsonaro | 61.2% | $147K
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Top volume & odds: October 31 | 79.0% | $110K
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?) | 3.2% | $104K
15.0%
—
$13M
—
Republican nominee
Event volume $708M
Presidential election
Event volume $711M
Sources: aa.com.tr, canberratimes.com.au, standard.net.au
Friday CPI inflation report is even more important than usual . Here what to expect
Friday CPI inflation report is even more important than usual . Here what to expect. Fed Meets Next Week To Confront Rising Inflation Pressures. This is the test : All eyes on US Fed to tackle high inflation.
Sources: cnbc.com, aol.com, economictimes.indiatimes.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Fed Decision in October? - 25 bps increase at 33.0% with $618K traded.
Top volume remains in Fed Decision in October? - 25 bps increase.
Event leaders
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?) | 21.0% | $100K
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Top volume & odds: 0 (0 bps) | 96.8% | $11K
Popular events
AI boom lifts Asia - Pacific equity deals
AI boom lifts Asia - Pacific equity deals. Michael Burry Warns Against OpenAI , Anthropic Going Public. Anthropic IPO Looks Like a Speculative Disaster in the Making : Why Im Staying Away – NaturalNews . com.
Sources: tribune.com.pk, businessinsider.com, naturalnews.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Which company has best AI model end of 2026? - Anthropic at 56.0% with $38K traded.
Top volume remains in Which company has best AI model end of 2026? - Anthropic.
Lead event
Which company has best AI model end of 2026? - Anthropic
Trading at 56.0% with $38K in volume.
Event leaders
Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Top volume & odds: Anthropic | 56.0% | $38K
Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?
Top volume: October 31 | 50.0% | $20K
Top odds: October 23 | 52.0%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
Top volume: ↑$2.5T | 53.0% | $6K
Top odds: ↑$1.5T | 92.0%
Top volume & odds: No IPO by December 31, 2026 | 97.0% | $5K
Popular events
Dorothy Full Movie Collection : Dorothy box office collection Day 5 vs Meesaya Murukku 2 : Keerthy Suresh starrer sta.... Fantasia Barrino Leads Love of Soul Tour With Anthony Hamilton & October London. Fantasia Barrino Leads Love of Soul Tour With Anthony Hamilton & October London.
Sources: timesofindia.indiatimes.com, hot969boston.com, wild941.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 at 3.4% with $24K traded.
Top volume remains in Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31.
Lead event
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31
Trading at 3.4% with $24K in volume.
Event leaders
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 3.4% | $24K
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 1.5% | $17K
Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 63.0% | $11K
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
Top volume & odds: 1 | 70.0% | $3K
Best Crypto to Buy in October ? Apeing Stage 6 Surges Past $110K as. Apeing $0 . 0006 Entry , 33 - Stage Presale and 85 % APY Put $APEING. Best Crypto to Buy and Hold for 10 Years : Bitcoin , Ethereum , XRP , or Solana ?.
Sources: openpr.com, openpr.com, 247wallst.com
Bitcoin Price Forecast : Fed Shock and BTC Levels
Bitcoin Price Forecast : Fed Shock and BTC Levels. Down 34 % From Its Highs , Is Bitcoin a Buy Right Now ?. Should You Track Bitcoin ETF Flows to Time Your Purchases ?.
Sources: coinspeaker.com, fool.com, aol.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? - Yes at 5.0% with $89K traded.
Top volume remains in Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?) | 5.0% | $89K
What price will Ethereum hit in September?
Top volume: ↓ 2,600 | 1.9% | $68K
Top odds: ↑ 2,700 | 66.0%
Popular events
Sources: yahoo.com, awfulannouncing.com
Angels fans rejoice online and in person after learning of team sale – Redlands Daily Facts
Angels fans rejoice online and in person after learning of team sale – Redlands Daily Facts. Angels fans rejoice online and in person after learning of team sale – Whittier Daily News.
Sources: redlandsdailyfacts.com, whittierdailynews.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 - Lamine Yamal at 43.4% with $76K traded.
Top volume remains in Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 - Lamine Yamal.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Lamine Yamal | 43.4% | $76K
Top volume: Oklahoma City Thunder | 19.0% | $71K
Top odds: San Antonio Spurs | 22.0%
MLB World Series Champion 2026
Top volume: San Diego Padres | 9.1% | $39K
Top odds: Los Angeles Dodgers | 30.0%
Popular events
Central and northern TN may receive below normal northeast monsoon , normal in Chennai : IMD forecast.
Sources: timesofindia.indiatimes.com
County to wage weekly battle on ground squirrel population at Flood Park
County to wage weekly battle on ground squirrel population at Flood Park. When the Climate Shifts , So Do the Pathogens ( And So Should We ).
Sources: almanacnews.com, fas.org
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑5k at 88.0% with $874 traded.
Top volume remains in Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑5k.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?) | 2.6% | $88
Popular events
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Kalshi via Jupiter
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