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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?" Event volume totals $286M across outcomes, with $694 traded in the last 24 hours. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Abiy Ahmed" at 97.9% and $74 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Crude Oil all time high by...?" Highest implied odds are for "December 31" at 15.0%, with top volume on "September 30" at 1.4% and $103K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? - Gedion Timothewos
$0
Highest implied
Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch? - $100M
98.6%
Top priced
Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch? - $100M
98.6%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election? - United Russia (ER) leads the desk at 98.5% with $6M traded.
Lead stories
Ukraine launches biggest Moscow drone attack as Russia votes
Ukraine launches biggest Moscow drone attack as Russia votes. Russian election observer arrested | The Arkansas Democrat - Gazette - Arkansa Best News Source. Ukraine launches biggest Moscow drone attack as Russia votes.
Sources: moneycontrol.com, arkansasonline.com, timeslive.co.za
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Crude Oil all time high by...? - September 30 leads the desk at 1.4% with $103K traded.
Lead stories
WTI Crude Oil Near $100 : What Traders Are Watching
WTI Crude Oil Near $100 : What Traders Are Watching. Trump signs Russia sanctions bill , may hit India crude tap. Stock Market Next Week : US - Iran Tensions , Crude Oil And 100 % US Tariff Threat To Keep Sensex , Nifty On Edge.
Sources: dailyforex.com, timesofindia.indiatimes.com, freepressjournal.in
B4
Lead market: Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? - ↑$1.5T leads the desk at 90.0% with $17K traded.
Lead stories
After agreeing with Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei on slowing pace of AI , Sam Altman and Elon Musk teased next powerful.... Anthropic Considers New AI Model To Counter OpenAI Astra Days after CEO Called For Slowdown. Anthropic mulls releasing new AI model.
Sources: timesofindia.indiatimes.com, deccanchronicle.com, tribune.com.pk
B5
Lead market: Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 leads the desk at 4.3% with $55K traded.
Lead stories
Beauty Marks : The Best Beauty Looks of the Week
Beauty Marks : The Best Beauty Looks of the Week. Medical Miracle Full Movie Collection : It a Medical Miracle box office collection day 2 : Sangeeth Prathap film sees.... Bethlehem Kudumba Unit box office collection day 30 vs IM Game : Nivin Pauly film records 84 . 5 % growth ; Dulquer S....
Sources: vogue.com, timesofindia.indiatimes.com, timesofindia.indiatimes.com
B6
Lead market: What price will Bitcoin hit in September? - ↑ 100,000 leads the desk at 1.1% with $62K traded.
Lead stories
Bitcoin Is 11 Days From Its First Winning Quarter in a Year . What Needs to Hold Until September 30 ?. Bitcoin Broke Above $80 , 000 . Can It Close Above $83 , 000 ?. Brian Armstrong Predicts $400 , 000 Bitcoin Price by 2030 . The Forecast Requires 51 % Growth Annually : Can It Hold ?.
Sources: 247wallst.com, aol.com, 247wallst.com
B7
Lead market: UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion - Barcelona leads the desk at 21.0% with $228K traded.
Lead stories
Man City wins 8 - goal thriller against Sunderland to move clear at top of Premier League
Man City wins 8 - goal thriller against Sunderland to move clear at top of Premier League.
Sources: wral.com
Fox Live TV Schedule & Listings Guide
Fox Live TV Schedule & Listings Guide. 4 burning questions Colts must answer in Week 2 vs . Chiefs. Sunday Sports Headlines and Scores presented by Barton Community College.
Sources: screenrant.com, horseshoeheroes.com,
B8
Lead market: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 2.7% with $12K traded.
Lead stories
Data Gaps Hinder Response to Climate - Driven Infections
Data Gaps Hinder Response to Climate - Driven Infections.
Sources: medscape.com
Meteorologist Predicts Above - Average Snow for Many US States This Winter
Meteorologist Predicts Above - Average Snow for Many US States This Winter.
Sources: aol.com
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
Trump Signs Russia Sanctions Law With 100 % Tariffs on Energy Buyers. New US sanctions law undermines Ukraine peace efforts Kremlin. New US sanctions law undermines Ukraine peace efforts Kremlin.
Sources: hngn.com, iranherald.com, beijingbulletin.com
New US sanctions law undermines Ukraine peace efforts Kremlin
New US sanctions law undermines Ukraine peace efforts Kremlin. New US sanctions law undermines Ukraine peace efforts Kremlin. New US sanctions law undermines Ukraine peace efforts Kremlin.
Sources: indiagazette.com, shanghaisun.com, kenyastar.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election? - United Russia (ER) at 98.5% with $6M traded.
Top volume remains in Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election? - United Russia (ER).
Lead event
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election? - United Russia (ER)
Trading at 98.5% with $6M in volume.
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
98.5%
+17.5pp
$6M
+200%
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
1.6%
-16.7pp
$1M
+210%
Event leaders
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
Top volume & odds: United Russia (ER) | 98.5% | $6M
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?) | 17.0% | $377K
Top volume & odds: Nicolás Maduro | 55.3% | $250K
Which party will win the House in 2026?
Top volume: Republican Party | 8.0% | $177K
Top odds: Democratic Party | 93.0%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
Top volume: September 30 | 3.6% | $158K
Top odds: December 31 | 21.0%
15.6%
-0.4pp
$28M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $707M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $707M0%
Kevin Warsh just revealed a huge change for the Fed . The press missed it. Why Chalmer heroic IGR productivity assumptions are flawed. The Fed September Decision Could Change What You Pay for Your Next Car.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, afr.com, aol.com
Fed Kashkari says inflation is still too high across US economy
Fed Kashkari says inflation is still too high across US economy. Fed Kashkari reportedly says inflation is still too high. Fed Kashkari says inflation is still too high in all aspect of US economy.
Sources: freemalaysiatoday.com, cnbc.com, businesstimes.com.sg
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Crude Oil all time high by...? - September 30 at 1.4% with $103K traded.
Top volume remains in Crude Oil all time high by...? - September 30.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: 25 bps increase | 56.0% | $66K
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in September 2026?
Top volume: ↑ $105 | 34.0% | $31K
Top odds: ↓ $95 | 77.0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?) | 18.0% | $29K
Popular events
Prediction : Anthropic IPO Will Be a Big Winner for Alphabet and Amazon Investors
Prediction : Anthropic IPO Will Be a Big Winner for Alphabet and Amazon Investors. Prediction : Anthropic IPO Will Be a Big Winner for Alphabet and Amazon Investors.
Why Anthropic $30 trillion sales pitch ahead of its IPO could make sense
Why Anthropic $30 trillion sales pitch ahead of its IPO could make sense. The biggest IPOs ever . And where Anthropic could land. The biggest IPOs ever . And where Anthropic could land.
Sources: aol.com, wsoctv.com, wsbtv.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? - ↑$1.5T at 90.0% with $17K traded.
Top volume remains in Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? - ↑$1.5T.
Lead event
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? - ↑$1.5T
Trading at 90.0% with $17K in volume.
Event leaders
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
Top volume & odds: ↑$1.5T | 90.0% | $17K
Top volume & odds: Anthropic | 73.0% | $3K
Top volume & odds: No IPO by December 31, 2026 | 96.5% | $867
Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
Top volume: Viking Therapeutics | 15.0% | $860
Top odds: MGM Resorts | 28.0%
Popular events
Michael Youssef : Christians must not hide in our church pews
Michael Youssef : Christians must not hide in our church pews. Colorado State apologizes to BYU for derogatory chants as 11th - ranked Cougars beat Rams 41 - 23 – Winnipeg Free Press. A Prayer of Surrender - Prayers.
Sources: christianpost.com, winnipegfreepress.com, biblestudytools.com
SpaceX Nasdaq 100 weighting reportedly set to rise to 2 . 82 % · Digg
SpaceX Nasdaq 100 weighting reportedly set to rise to 2 . 82 % · Digg. 【 AICC Original Article 】 2026 World Manufacturing Convention Opens. Choi Myeong Been Reported To Join Byeon Woo Seok In Solo Leveling Live - Action Adaptation + Agency Comments.
Sources: digg.com, english.anhuinews.com, soompi.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 at 4.3% with $55K traded.
Top volume remains in Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31.
Lead event
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31
Trading at 4.3% with $55K in volume.
Event leaders
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 4.3% | $55K
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 1.8% | $38K
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
Top volume & odds: 1 | 73.0% | $2K
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Top volume: Avengers: Doomsday | 3.9% | $1K
Top odds: Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 94.0%
Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Avengers: Doomsday | 52.0% | $909
Paradigm Labels Zcash a Private Complement to Bitcoin . What the Implications for Both Coins. Strategy Is Up 53 % in the Past Month . Here the Bull and Bear Case for One of Wall Street Most Polarizing Stocks .. Strategy Is Up 53 % in the Past Month . Here the Bull and Bear Case for One of Wall Street Most Polarizing Stocks ..
Sources: 247wallst.com, fool.com, fool.com
Bitcoin survived brutal week of market shocks . Still , analysts are deeply split on what happens next .. How high can Bitcoin go ? BTC eyes $83 , 000 as ETF inflows fuel its latest rally. Crypto blew its big moment and the blame game has begun.
Sources: coindesk.com, hindustantimes.com, hindustantimes.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by What price will Bitcoin hit in September? - ↑ 100,000 at 1.1% with $62K traded.
Top volume remains in What price will Bitcoin hit in September? - ↑ 100,000.
Event leaders
What price will Bitcoin hit in September?
Top volume: ↑ 100,000 | 1.1% | $62K
Top odds: ↑ 82,500 | 80.0%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?) | 6.4% | $49K
What price will Bitcoin hit September 14-20?
Top volume & odds: ↑ 82,000 | 18.8% | $37K
What price will Ethereum hit in September?
Top volume: ↓ 2,200 | 7.0% | $12K
Top odds: ↓ 2,600 | 97.0%
Popular events
Ballon dOr 2026 : What he does is incredible - Milla names player who deserves award
Ballon dOr 2026 : What he does is incredible - Milla names player who deserves award. Real Madrid : 10 WORST Los Blancos signings since 1990s ranked – Kaka 2nd , Jonathan Woodgate 4th.
Sources: dailypost.ng, teamtalk.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion - Barcelona at 21.0% with $228K traded.
Top volume remains in UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion - Barcelona.
Event leaders
UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
Top volume & odds: Barcelona | 21.0% | $228K
Top volume & odds: Oklahoma City Thunder | 22.0% | $17K
Popular events
As power demand rises , Iowa falls back on coal. US Revokes Limits on Power Plant Climate Pollution | Human Rights Watch. Summit adapts to Trump drill , baby , drill | Environmental News , Nature News.
Sources: thegazette.com, text.hrw.org, thegazette.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes at 2.7% with $12K traded.
Top volume remains in Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?) | 2.7% | $12K
Popular events
+$30,553
+$14,084
+$12,363
Kalshi via Jupiter
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