Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Will Alberta join the US?" Event volume totals $2M across outcomes. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Will Alberta join the US?)" at 2.2% and $0 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Fed Decision in October?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "No change" at 54.0% and $680K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? - Yes
$4M
Highest implied
MLB: 2026 NL MVP - Pete Crow-Armstrong
98.8%
Top priced
MLB: 2026 NL MVP - Pete Crow-Armstrong
98.8%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election? - United Russia (ER) leads the desk at 72.0% with $533K traded.
Lead stories
Credibility in Osun , Questions for Wike and the NBA – THISDAYLIVE
Credibility in Osun , Questions for Wike and the NBA – THISDAYLIVE. Meta , TikTok , YouTube and LinkedIn didnt act on 77 % of misinformation reported during Áras race. Real and RE / MAX Holdings Announce Preliminary Results for Election of Form of Merger Consideration by REMAX Stockho....
Sources: thisdaylive.com, thejournal.ie, montrealgazette.com
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Fed Decision in October? - No change leads the desk at 54.0% with $680K traded.
Lead stories
Commentary : The Fed credibility depends on resisting politics , not playing it
Commentary : The Fed credibility depends on resisting politics , not playing it. Small CPI surprise could trigger big Fed rate decision. Friday CPI inflation report is even more important than usual . Here what to expect.
Sources: timesleader.com, finance.yahoo.com, cnbc.com
B4
Lead market: Which company has the best AI model end of September? - Anthropic leads the desk at 96.4% with $14K traded.
Lead stories
US Agencies Accuse China - Based AI Firms Of Maliciou Copying Of American Models
US Agencies Accuse China - Based AI Firms Of Maliciou Copying Of American Models. OpenAI and Samsung deepen chip and enterprise AI cooperation. OpenAI says working with Samsung on next - generation chips , deepening cooperation.
Sources: zerohedge.com, finance.yahoo.com, ksl.com
B5
Lead market: Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 leads the desk at 4.4% with $109K traded.
Lead stories
UrbanFest 360 returns to Orlando with Chadwick Boseman tribute
UrbanFest 360 returns to Orlando with Chadwick Boseman tribute. Entertainment Live Updates Today ( September 11 , 2026 ): Haiwaan Hits Theatres ; Mirzapur The Movie Crosses ₹200 Cro.... Hollywood Biggest Film Festival Bets , From Flops to $500M Hits.
Sources: wftv.com, filmibeat.com, observer.com
B6
Lead market: Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 5.3% with $4M traded.
Lead stories
Bitcoin , crypto stocks surge 11 % as Trump pushes CLARITY Act at White House summit
Bitcoin , crypto stocks surge 11 % as Trump pushes CLARITY Act at White House summit. Wall Street Is Now Backing the Clarity Act . Here the Most Likely Scenario for What Happens Next With Crypto .. Ibrahim Alriyami Opens Enrollment for The Showing - Up Strategy Sprint , a Five - Week Sprint to Help Professionals M....
Sources: thenews.com.pk, fool.com, prnewswire.com
B7
Lead market: NFL Champion 2027 - Houston Texans leads the desk at 3.6% with $43K traded.
Lead stories
Former NFL RB LeShon Johnson Sentenced To 5 Years In Prison For Operating Large - Scale Dogfighting Ring. CB Nate Burleson Drew TV Inspiration from Fellow Vikings WR Ahmad Rashad. When the College Football Stars Played NFL Champs.
Sources: dailycaller.com, vikings.com, history.com
Lewis Hamilton calls for Ferrari rules ; Raikkonen Jr signs for Red Bull
Lewis Hamilton calls for Ferrari rules ; Raikkonen Jr signs for Red Bull. Jack Doohan to test for Haas as Esteban Ocon 2027 seat remains uncertain. F1 news : Ferrari shuts down crisis claims after Monza.
B8
Lead market: Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑4.75k leads the desk at 86.0% with $15K traded.
Lead stories
In South Africa , renewable energy latest part of timber industry green efforts
In South Africa , renewable energy latest part of timber industry green efforts. Farming and food unprepared for global warming , says advisory council. Codan Reports 1 , 603 Tonnes of Scope 1 and 2 GHG Emissions as DTC united kingdom Targets Net Zero by 2040.
Sources: news.mongabay.com, irishtimes.com, greentechlead.com
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
98.5%
$50
Gov Dan McKee faces primary rematch amid Washington Bridge construction delays. NH Dem nominees fire first shots at post - primary breakfast. Roll Call on the Road : Day Two in Dallas.
Sources: foxnews.com, unionleader.com, rollcall.com
New report reveals Trump been lying about Iran war since the start
New report reveals Trump been lying about Iran war since the start.
Sources: dailykos.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election? - United Russia (ER) at 72.0% with $533K traded.
Top volume remains in Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election? - United Russia (ER).
Lead event
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election? - United Russia (ER)
Trading at 72.0% with $533K in volume.
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
72.0%
-4.0pp
$533K
+107%
Event leaders
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
Top volume & odds: United Russia (ER) | 72.0% | $533K
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Top volume: Gavin Newsom | 16.2% | $340K
Top odds: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 18.3%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?) | 17.0% | $318K
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?) | 4.0% | $186K
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Top volume & odds: September 30 | 90.0% | $164K
16.2%
-2.2pp
$28M
+4%
Republican nominee
Event volume $705M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $706M0%
Fed Meets Next Week To Confront Rising Inflation Pressures. JPMorgan & Wall Street Giant Estimates on US CPI Inflation , Will Crypto Market Recover ?. August CPI report could spark the Fed first rate hike in over 3 years.
Sources: aol.com, finance.yahoo.com, aol.com
Central bank under pressure to raise rates at upcoming meeting : Economists
Central bank under pressure to raise rates at upcoming meeting : Economists. Norway Core Inflation Rises to 3 % in August. Experts Predict No Fed Rate Cut Next Week : What It Means.
Sources: focustaiwan.tw, econotimes.com, newsweek.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Fed Decision in October? - No change at 54.0% with $680K traded.
Top volume remains in Fed Decision in October? - No change.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: No change | 54.0% | $680K
Top volume & odds: Yes (Fed rate hike in 2026?) | 95.0% | $251K
Top volume & odds: Yes (US recession by end of 2026?) | 12.0% | $143K
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in September 2026?
Top volume: ↑ $110 | 28.0% | $77K
Top odds: ↓ $100 | 96.5%
Popular events
Thinking of Buying the Anthropic IPO ? More Than a Decade of Tech - Based IPO History May Change Your Mind .. Enflame Technology Soars After IPO As China Backs Nvidia Challengers. As Anthropic IPO Looms , This Small Financial Powerhouse Just Got Its First Underwriting Job.
Sources: aol.com, businessinsider.com, aol.com
Nvidia in talks to invest in Anthropic mega IPO , sources say
Nvidia in talks to invest in Anthropic mega IPO , sources say. Nvidia eyes major investment in Anthropic mega IPO - The HinduBusinessLine. Nvidia in talks to invest in Anthropic mega IPO , sources say.
Sources: moneycontrol.com, thehindubusinessline.com, dunyanews.tv
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Which company has the best AI model end of September? - Anthropic at 96.4% with $14K traded.
Top volume remains in Which company has the best AI model end of September? - Anthropic.
Lead event
Which company has the best AI model end of September? - Anthropic
Trading at 96.4% with $14K in volume.
Event leaders
Which company has the best AI model end of September?
Top volume & odds: Anthropic | 96.4% | $14K
Top volume & odds: Anthropic | 85.0% | $6K
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
Top volume: ↑$4.0T | 8.8% | $4K
Top odds: ↑$1.5T | 95.0%
Top volume & odds: Yes (Human moon landing in 2026?) | 2.7% | $2K
The Passion of the Christ. ChatGPT Allegedly Told a Man Experiencing Delusions That He Was Jesus. Randall Wallace : The Passion was Mel Gibson calling.
Sources: pluggedin.com, vice.com, christianpost.com
Scary Movie Officially Confirms Streaming Release Date
Scary Movie Officially Confirms Streaming Release Date. Chris Pratt $1B Fantasy Adventure Officially Hits Rare # 1 Streaming Milestone. New Pokemon movie set for release in 2027.
Sources: movieweb.com, screenrant.com, asiaone.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 at 4.4% with $109K traded.
Top volume remains in Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31.
Lead event
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31
Trading at 4.4% with $109K in volume.
Event leaders
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 4.4% | $109K
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 1.9% | $9K
Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Top volume: Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 46.0% | $3K
Top odds: Avengers: Doomsday | 53.0%
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Top volume: Avengers: Doomsday | 5.0% | $592
Top odds: Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 94.0%
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
Top volume & odds: 1 | 77.0% | $503
Bitcoin and ethereum prices today , Monday , August 31 , 2026 : Higher rate expectations pressure crypto prices lower. Wall Street Investment Firm Bernstein Thinks Bitcoin Could Hit $300 , 000 by 2029 . Is Bitcoin Now a Buy ?. Wall Street Investment Firm Bernstein Thinks Bitcoin Could Hit $300 , 000 by 2029 . Is Bitcoin Now a Buy ?.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, fool.com, aol.com
Stablecoin Summit 2026 by XREX Group Returns to Singapore as Stablecoins Mature Into a Financial Infrastructure. PYMNTS | This Week in Stablecoins : Everything but the Coin. Stablecoin Summit 2026 by XREX Group Returns to Singapore as Stablecoins Mature Into a Financial Infrastructure.
Sources: aninews.in, pymnts.com, singaporestar.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? - Yes at 5.3% with $4M traded.
Top volume remains in Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?) | 5.3% | $4M
What price will Ethereum hit in September?
Top volume: ↑ 2,600 | 50.0% | $50K
Top odds: ↑ 2,500 | 72.0%
What price will Bitcoin hit in September?
Top volume: ↓ 55,000 | 1.1% | $45K
Top odds: ↑ 77,500 | 78.0%
Popular events
Sources: planetf1.com, planetf1.com, speedcafe.com
Joao Pedro : Chelsea boss Xabi Alonso says striker like Karim Benzema and as good as Erling Haaland
Joao Pedro : Chelsea boss Xabi Alonso says striker like Karim Benzema and as good as Erling Haaland. Champions League briefing : Ballon dOr contenders dazzle , a 12 - minute hat - trick and a two - man canoe. Ballon dOr : He outstanding - Spain coach De la Fuente picks player who should win 2026 award.
Sources: bbc.co.uk, nytimes.com, dailypost.ng
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by NFL Champion 2027 - Houston Texans at 3.6% with $43K traded.
Top volume remains in NFL Champion 2027 - Houston Texans.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Kimi Antonelli | 92.9% | $39K
Top volume & odds: Harry Kane | 55.4% | $20K
NBA: 2026-27 Rookie of the Year
Top volume: Darryn Peterson | 18.0% | $8K
Top odds: Caleb Wilson | 24.0%
Popular events
When the Climate Shifts , So Do the Pathogens ( And So Should We ).
Sources: fas.org
Codan Sustainability Report 2025 : Targets Net Zero by 2045 as Scope 3 Drives 95 % of 54 , 357 tCO2e Emissions. Digital companies are getting greener , but AI is making climate targets harder to achieve. Moody head of sustainable finance : Asia is embracing a pragmatic transition on energy.
Sources: greentechlead.com, digitaljournal.com, fortune.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑4.75k at 86.0% with $15K traded.
Top volume remains in Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑4.75k.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?) | 2.6% | $793
Popular events
+$29,998
+$12,363
+$8,366
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
Leaderboard