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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?" Event volume totals $286M across outcomes, with $3K traded in the last 24 hours. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Abiy Ahmed" at 98.4% and $379 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Fed Decision in September?" Highest implied odds are for "25 bps increase" at 81.0%, with top volume on "No change" at 18.0% and $5M 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? - Gedion Timothewos
$0
Highest implied
Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch? - $100M
98.8%
Top priced
Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch? - $100M
98.8%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? - Yes leads the desk at 16.0% with $333K traded.
Lead stories
President Brings House Down with Trump Dividend Announcement Here How to Score $5 , 000
President Brings House Down with Trump Dividend Announcement Here How to Score $5 , 000. Trump Republican convention keynote speech features stunning cash vow. Trump Pledges $5 , 000 Dividend for Every Adult American if Republicans Win Congress.
Sources: redstate.com, foxnews.com, khaama.com
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B
B3
Lead market: Fed Decision in September? - No change leads the desk at 18.0% with $5M traded.
Lead stories
Friday CPI inflation report is even more important than usual . Here what to expect
Friday CPI inflation report is even more important than usual . Here what to expect. FOMC September 2026 Odds for a Rate Hike Surpass 50 %. Gold Price Steadies Near $4 , 400 , Silver Holds Above $66 as Markets Brace for a Fed Decision Complicated by War.
Sources: cnbc.com, finance.yahoo.com, indiainfoline.com
B4
Lead market: Which company has the best AI model end of September? - Anthropic leads the desk at 96.0% with $48K traded.
Lead stories
Oracle AI bet pays off as cloud momentum helps drive a rosier forecast
Oracle AI bet pays off as cloud momentum helps drive a rosier forecast.
Sources: morningstar.com
OpenAI says working with Samsung on next - generation chips , deepening cooperation
OpenAI says working with Samsung on next - generation chips , deepening cooperation. As Anthropic IPO Looms , This Small Financial Powerhouse Just Got Its First Underwriting Job. Stop paying for Claude and ChatGPT NVIDIA is offering free models thatre just as good.
Sources: ksl.com,
B5
Lead market: Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 leads the desk at 3.7% with $104K traded.
Lead stories
Entertainment Live Updates Today ( September 11 , 2026 ): Haiwaan Hits Theatres ; Mirzapur The Movie Crosses ₹200 Cro.... Get to know the Philippine 10 new national artists. Mirzapur The Movie Box Office Collection Day 7 : Pankaj Tripathi , Ali Fazal Film Nears Rs 150 Crore In India , Cross....
Sources: filmibeat.com, rappler.com, newsx.com
B6
Lead market: Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 18.0% with $348K traded.
Lead stories
Treasury Secretary Bessent Urges CLARITY Act Passage after Senate Returns
Treasury Secretary Bessent Urges CLARITY Act Passage after Senate Returns. XRP Falls 4 . 94 % to $1 . 34 as $350 Billion Leaves US Stocks . Can It Still Reach $1 . 50 Before the Fed and Clotur.... Complexity Matters : Why And How Leaders Need To Work With It.
Sources: cointelegraph.com, aol.com, forbes.com
How to Invest in Bitcoin : Ive Spent 5 Years Covering Crypto , and This Is the Strategy Id Use Today
How to Invest in Bitcoin : Ive Spent 5 Years Covering Crypto , and This Is the Strategy Id Use Today. How to Invest in Bitcoin : Ive Spent 5 Years Covering Crypto , and This Is the Strategy Id Use Today. How to Invest in Bitcoin : Ive Spent 5 Years Covering Crypto , and This Is the Strategy Id Use Today.
B7
Lead market: Frances Tiafoe leads the desk at 29.0% with $513K traded.
Lead stories
Brandon Nakashima vs . Ben Shelton prediction : Odds , picks , predictions for Canadian Masters Final. Trinity Rodman shares the major downside of dating Ben Shelton publicly. Trinity Rodman admits she slid into Ben Shelton DMs first : Im really embarrassed.
Sources: nypost.com, hola.com, hola.com
Michael Ramirez. Madeline Brewer Will Star in Wild Rose at New York Theatre Workshop. 30 writers from across Canada make 2026 CBC Nonfiction Prize longlist.
B8
Lead market: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 2.6% with $52K traded.
Lead stories
Data Gaps Hinder Response to Climate - Driven Infections
Data Gaps Hinder Response to Climate - Driven Infections.
Sources: medscape.com
Woman drowns in car trapped in underpass as floods hit Italy - General News
Woman drowns in car trapped in underpass as floods hit Italy - General News.
Sources: ansa.it
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
Bulletproofing The Hemisphere : Rubio Kicks Off South America Tour As Continent Lurches Right. Brazilian Supreme Court Chief - Justice weighs in on the turmoil shaking the institution. 17 years after first BRICS summit , Lula skips meet for election campaign.
Sources: zerohedge.com, yahoo.com, newindianexpress.com
Several people injured in sword attack in Fagersta , Sweden
Several people injured in sword attack in Fagersta , Sweden. DPM underscores importance of further advancing Pakistan - Sweden economic ties. Swedish opposition holds big lead ahead of September vote , poll shows.
Sources: jpost.com, radio.gov.pk, straitstimes.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? - Yes at 16.0% with $333K traded.
Top volume remains in Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? - Yes.
Event leaders
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?) | 16.0% | $333K
Top volume: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 45.0% | $284K
Top odds: Flávio Bolsonaro | 52.9%
Top volume & odds: Magdalena Andersson | 74.0% | $217K
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
Top volume: September 30 | 9.9% | $195K
Top odds: December 31 | 26.0%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Top volume: September 30 | 86.0% | $190K
Top odds: September 15 | 94.0%
Popular events
14.6%
—
$27M
—
Republican nominee
Event volume $703M
Presidential election
Event volume $704M
Are interest rates on their way up again ?. Fed Meets Next Week To Confront Rising Inflation Pressures. Experts Predict No Fed Rate Cut Next Week : What It Means.
Sources: bbc.co.uk, aol.com, newsweek.com
Gulf foreign ministers to meet with Iran counterpart for Strait of Hormuz deal
Gulf foreign ministers to meet with Iran counterpart for Strait of Hormuz deal. Iran IRGC says hit US sea drone in Hormuz Strait. Iran IRGC says hit US sea drone in Hormuz Strait.
Sources: jpost.com, prokerala.com, siasat.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Fed Decision in September? - No change at 18.0% with $5M traded.
Top volume remains in Fed Decision in September? - No change.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Fed rate hike in 2026?) | 90.0% | $210K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?) | 20.0% | $174K
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in September 2026?
Top volume: ↑ $110 | 36.0% | $90K
Top odds: ↓ $95 | 83.0%
Popular events
Wave of AI - driven IPOs expected to accompany Anthropic listing – The Mercury News
Wave of AI - driven IPOs expected to accompany Anthropic listing – The Mercury News. Wave of AI - driven IPOs expected to accompany Anthropic listing – Orlando Sentinel. Wave of AI - driven IPOs expected to accompany Anthropic listing – The Press Democrat.
Sources: mercurynews.com, orlandosentinel.com, pressdemocrat.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Which company has the best AI model end of September? - Anthropic at 96.0% with $48K traded.
Top volume remains in Which company has the best AI model end of September? - Anthropic.
Lead event
Which company has the best AI model end of September? - Anthropic
Trading at 96.0% with $48K in volume.
Event leaders
Which company has the best AI model end of September?
Top volume & odds: Anthropic | 96.0% | $48K
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
Top volume: ↑$2.0T | 84.0% | $10K
Top odds: ↑$1.5T | 96.0%
Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
Top volume: OpenAI | 3.0% | $376
Top odds: MGM Resorts | 34.0%
The Passion of the Christ. Miraculous dreams , a surprise box of Bibles , and how Jesus is still reaching Iran. MAGA Pastor Urges Voters to Stop Uncircumcised People From Stealing a Jesus - Dedicated Nation.
Sources: pluggedin.com, mnnonline.org, ibtimes.co.uk
Summer Movie Box Office Winners & Losers For 2026 : Did Everyone Win ?
Summer Movie Box Office Winners & Losers For 2026 : Did Everyone Win ?. Louisiana Box Office Records : The Top 8 Highest - Grossing Films. Bethlehem Kudumba Unit Kerala Box Office : Nivin Pauly and Mamitha Baiju starrer approaches Vaazha 2 lifetime record....
Sources: bleedingcool.com, kpel965.com, pinkvilla.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 at 3.7% with $104K traded.
Top volume remains in Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31.
Lead event
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31
Trading at 3.7% with $104K in volume.
Event leaders
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 3.7% | $104K
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 1.7% | $20K
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Top volume: Avengers: Doomsday | 6.0% | $2K
Top odds: Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 94.0%
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
Top volume: 3 | 2.2% | $579
Top odds: 1 | 75.0%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by...?
Top volume: December 31, 2026 | 2.2% | $195
Top odds: March 31, 2027 | 8.0%
Bitcoin ETFs Are Roaring Again . Is Bitcoin a Buy at $80 , 000 ?
Bitcoin ETFs Are Roaring Again . Is Bitcoin a Buy at $80 , 000 ?. Bitcoin Correlation With Gold Is Near an All - Time High . Does That Make Bitcoin a Buy ?. Bitcoin Correlation With Gold Is Near an All - Time High . Does That Make Bitcoin a Buy ?.
Sources: aol.com, finance.yahoo.com, aol.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? - Yes at 18.0% with $348K traded.
Top volume remains in Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?) | 18.0% | $348K
What price will Bitcoin hit in September?
Top volume: ↑ 80,000 | 64.0% | $73K
Top odds: ↓ 75,000 | 71.0%
What price will Ethereum hit in September?
Top volume: ↑ 2,700 | 49.0% | $45K
Top odds: ↓ 2,400 | 67.0%
Popular events
Sources: reviewjournal.com, theatermania.com, cbc.ca
Ballon dOr : He outstanding - Spain coach De la Fuente picks player who should win 2026 award
Ballon dOr : He outstanding - Spain coach De la Fuente picks player who should win 2026 award. Ballon dOr 2026 ranking after shortlist revealed. Lionel Messi breaks the MLS barrier with another Ballon dOr nomination.
Sources: dailypost.ng, vanguardngr.com, mlsmultiplex.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by Frances Tiafoe at 29.0% with $513K traded.
Top volume remains in Frances Tiafoe.
Event leaders
US Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Ben Shelton
Top volume: Frances Tiafoe | 29.0% | $513K
Top odds: Under | 82.0%
2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)
Top volume & odds: Alexander Zverev | 54.5% | $241K
2026 Women’s US Open Winner (Tennis)
Top volume & odds: Aryna Sabalenka | 57.0% | $88K
Popular events
Vol $513K
Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 - Rodri
Vol $133K
EBRD backs landmark wind power project in North Macedonia. Bangladesh to get carbon credits for electricity generation from waste. Expansion completed for largest solar energy project in Milwaukee history.
Sources: ebrd.com, bssnews.net, cbs58.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes at 2.6% with $52K traded.
Top volume remains in Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?) | 2.6% | $52K
Popular events
+$44,493
+$3,826
+$3,440
Kalshi via Jupiter
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