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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by...?" Event volume totals $3M across outcomes. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "December 31, 2026" at 2.3% and $0 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Fed Decision in September?" Highest implied odds are for "25 bps increase" at 51.0%, with top volume on "No change" at 49.0% and $2M 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by...? - December 31, 2026
$0
Highest implied
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? - August 31
98.7%
Top priced
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? - August 31
98.7%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: Brazil Presidential Election - Augusto Cury leads the desk at 3.4% with $921K traded.
Lead stories
News brief in progress
Editors are compiling the latest reports on Brazil Presidential Election.
News brief in progress
Editors are compiling the latest reports on Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027.
News brief in progress
Editors are compiling the latest reports on Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election.
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Brazil Presidential Election - Augusto Cury at 3.4% with $921K traded.
Top volume remains in Brazil Presidential Election - Augusto Cury.
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B
B3
Lead market: Fed Decision in September? - No change leads the desk at 49.0% with $2M traded.
Lead stories
News brief in progress
Editors are compiling the latest reports on Fed Decision in September.
News brief in progress
Editors are compiling the latest reports on Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31.
News brief in progress
Editors are compiling the latest reports on Fed rate hike in 2026.
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Fed Decision in September? - No change at 49.0% with $2M traded.
Top volume remains in Fed Decision in September? - No change.
B4
Lead market: Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? - Anthropic leads the desk at 59.9% with $47K traded.
Lead stories
News brief in progress
Editors are compiling the latest reports on Largest IPO by market cap in 2026.
News brief in progress
Editors are compiling the latest reports on Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31.
News brief in progress
Editors are compiling the latest reports on GPT-6 released by….
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? - Anthropic at 59.9% with $47K traded.
Top volume remains in Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? - Anthropic.
B5
Lead market: Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes leads the desk at 1.7% with $185K traded.
Lead stories
News brief in progress
Editors are compiling the latest reports on Will Jesus Christ return before 2027.
News brief in progress
Editors are compiling the latest reports on "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by August 31.
News brief in progress
Editors are compiling the latest reports on Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027.
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes at 1.7% with $185K traded.
Top volume remains in Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes.
B6
Lead market: What price will Bitcoin hit in August? - ↑ 82,500 leads the desk at 5.2% with $209K traded.
Lead stories
News brief in progress
Editors are compiling the latest reports on What price will Bitcoin hit in August.
News brief in progress
Editors are compiling the latest reports on Clarity Act signed into law in 2026.
News brief in progress
Editors are compiling the latest reports on What price will Ethereum hit in August.
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by What price will Bitcoin hit in August? - ↑ 82,500 at 5.2% with $209K traded.
Top volume remains in What price will Bitcoin hit in August? - ↑ 82,500.
B7
Lead market: UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion - Bayern Munich leads the desk at 15.0% with $105K traded.
Lead stories
News brief in progress
Editors are compiling the latest reports on UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion.
News brief in progress
Editors are compiling the latest reports on NBA: 2027 Champion.
News brief in progress
Editors are compiling the latest reports on EPL: 2027 Champion.
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion - Bayern Munich at 15.0% with $105K traded.
Top volume remains in UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion - Bayern Munich.
Lead event
UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion - Bayern Munich
Trading at 15.0% with $105K in volume.
B8
Lead market: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 3.8% with $18K traded.
Lead stories
News brief in progress
Editors are compiling the latest reports on Hantavirus pandemic in 2026.
News brief in progress
Editors are compiling the latest reports on Measles cases in U.S. in 2026.
News brief in progress
Editors are compiling the latest reports for this desk.
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes at 3.8% with $18K traded.
Top volume remains in Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes.
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
$27K
Event leaders
Top volume: Augusto Cury | 3.4% | $921K
Top odds: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 58.0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?) | 14.0% | $324K
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
Top volume & odds: United Russia (ER) | 75.0% | $268K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?) | 5.0% | $186K
US ceasefire against Iran continues through...?
Top volume & odds: August 31 | 97.0% | $177K
14.7%
—
$27M
—
Republican nominee
Event volume $692M
Presidential election
Event volume $694M
Event leaders
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?) | 32.0% | $97K
Top volume & odds: Yes (Fed rate hike in 2026?) | 68.0% | $86K
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Top volume & odds: 0 (0 bps) | 88.8% | $64K
Top volume & odds: December 31, 2026 | 96.0% | $45K
Popular events
Event leaders
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Anthropic | 59.9% | $47K
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
Top volume: ↑$4.0T | 11.1% | $32K
Top odds: ↑$1.5T | 95.0%
Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
Top volume: PayPal | 12.0% | $5K
Top odds: MGM Resorts | 34.0%
Popular events
Event leaders
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 1.7% | $185K
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by August 31?
Top volume & odds: 800 - 900m | 97.9% | $48K
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 3.9% | $13K
Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Avengers: Doomsday | 50.0% | $1K
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
Top volume: 2 | 20.0% | $1K
Top odds: 1 | 75.0%
Event leaders
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?) | 14.0% | $163K
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?) | 4.7% | $20K
Popular events
Event leaders
UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
Top volume: Bayern Munich | 15.0% | $105K
Top odds: Barcelona | 17.0%
Top volume: Cleveland Cavaliers | 1.9% | $92K
Top odds: Oklahoma City Thunder | 22.0%
Top volume & odds: Harry Kane | 65.7% | $33K
Popular events
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?) | 3.8% | $18K
Popular events
+$37,053
+$17,054
+$16,433
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
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