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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by...?" Event volume totals $3M across outcomes. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "December 31, 2026" at 2.6% and $0 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Fed Decision in September?" Highest implied odds are for "No change" at 71.0%, with top volume on "25 bps increase" at 30.0% and $548K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by...? - December 31, 2026
$0
Highest implied
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑3k
98.9%
Top priced
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑3k
98.9%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑3k
98.9%
$417
B1
Lead market: Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 - Wes Moore leads the desk at 1.7% with $522K traded.
Lead stories
Brown , Acton hold slim leads over Husted , Ramaswamy in key Ohio races : Poll
Brown , Acton hold slim leads over Husted , Ramaswamy in key Ohio races : Poll. Haley Stevens urges El - Sayed to cut ties with Hasan Piker for Senate. Ex - opponent calls on El - Sayed to cut ties with Hasan Piker.
Sources: yahoo.com, foxnews.com, wpde.com
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Fed Decision in September? - 25 bps increase leads the desk at 30.0% with $548K traded.
Lead stories
Fed seen sticking to policy - rate hold , for now , as inflation eases again
Fed seen sticking to policy - rate hold , for now , as inflation eases again. The Upcoming Inflation Report Is a Big Deal for the Fed . Here What Economists Expect .. US Fed expected to leave rates unchanged next month after soft inflation data.
Sources: kitco.com, ibtimes.com, economictimes.indiatimes.com
B4
Lead market: IPOs before 2027? - Anthropic leads the desk at 87.0% with $20K traded.
Lead stories
OpenAI and Anthropic employees chased by wealth managers ahead of IPOs
OpenAI and Anthropic employees chased by wealth managers ahead of IPOs. Big AI IPOs Get Headlines . The Real Story Takes Longer To Tell. Anthropic Expects Mind - Blowing $200 Billion Revenue in 2028 as IPO Looms.
Sources: afr.com, finance.yahoo.com, 247wallst.com
B5
Lead market: New "Stranger Things" episode released by...? - December 31, 2026 leads the desk at 5.0% with $9K traded.
Lead stories
Stranger Thing Other Eleven Was Hiding In Plain Sight
Stranger Thing Other Eleven Was Hiding In Plain Sight. Shawn Levy Ghost Rider Casting Could Have a Stranger Things Connection Rumor - Comic Book Movies and Superhero Movie.... Instagram and Social Media Are Making Us Forget What We Look Like.
Sources: screenrant.com, superherohype.com, allure.com
August 17th - 2026 Presidential Politics - Trump Administration Day 575
August 17th - 2026 Presidential Politics - Trump Administration Day 575. Vermont church elder faces child pornography charges. Gospel in Art : Sell what you possess and give to the poor.
B6
Lead market: What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? - ↓ 45,000 leads the desk at 22.0% with $309K traded.
Lead stories
Where Will Bitcoin Be in 5 Years ? | The Motley Fool
Where Will Bitcoin Be in 5 Years ? | The Motley Fool. Why bitcoin could lose its edge to AI stocks over the next 5 years. Strategy CEO Phong Le Thinks MSTR Stock Will Outperform Bitcoin During the Next Bull Market . Here Why He Wrong ..
Sources: fool.com, hindustantimes.com, fool.com
B7
Lead market: UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion - Arsenal leads the desk at 14.0% with $80K traded.
Lead stories
Ideal club to win my first Champions League - Ferran Torres talks leaving Barcelona for PSG
Ideal club to win my first Champions League - Ferran Torres talks leaving Barcelona for PSG. Liverpool agree five - year deal with Bradley Barcola : report.
Sources: barcablaugranes.com, fourfourtwo.com
Von Miller , Cowboys agree to terms on deal
Von Miller , Cowboys agree to terms on deal. Tom Brady calls out NFL players for resting during preseason. Cowboys sign 8 - time Pro Bowl LB Von Miller.
Sources: ,
B8
Lead market: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 3.6% with $11K traded.
Lead stories
SCHOTT Updates its Climate Targets – SBTi Validates Emissions Reduction Path - Environment / Recycle - SCHOTT North A.... SCHOTT Updates its Climate Targets – SBTi Validates Emissions Reduction Path - Environment / Recycle - SCHOTT North A.... This is what climate change looks like : Dorset in drought.
Sources: newswiretoday.com, newswiretoday.com, bournemouthecho.co.uk
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
98.9%
$442
Peltola distances herself from Kamala Harris endorsement ahead of Alaska primary. Museveni sends Ugandan troops to Gaza as proxies of US imperialism. A chance to shape political framework.
Sources: yahoo.com, wsws.org, thenational.com.pg
Myanmar leader arrives in Russia for talks with Putin
Myanmar leader arrives in Russia for talks with Putin. Russia issues chilling warning for united kingdom – London will inevitably have consequences. Ukraine - Russia war latest : Seven dead as Kyiv blows up Russian Amazon hub in largest drone attack of 2026.
Sources: aa.com.tr, dailystar.co.uk, independent.co.uk
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 - Wes Moore at 1.7% with $522K traded.
Top volume remains in Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 - Wes Moore.
Event leaders
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Top volume: Wes Moore | 1.7% | $522K
Top odds: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 20.0%
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
Top volume & odds: Yes (US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?) | 4.7% | $477K
Putin out as President of Russia by end of 2026?
Top volume: December 31, 2026 | 8.0% | $292K
Top odds: June 30, 2027 | 13.0%
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
Top volume & odds: United Russia (ER) | 72.0% | $265K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
Top volume & odds: August 31 | 1.3% | $240K
14.9%
+0.1pp
$13M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $689M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $687M0%
Oman negotiations , reopening of Hormuz are two separate issues : Iranian FM Araghchi. Iran and Oman work on temporary Hormuz shipping route as Trump threatens to claim the strait. Iran Rejects Trump Strait Of Hormuz U . S . Territory Strategy.
Sources: aninews.in, middleeasteye.net, wtkg.iheart.com
WTI Crude Oil : Are Traders Watching Fear Instead of Supply ?
WTI Crude Oil : Are Traders Watching Fear Instead of Supply ?. Crude Oil 12 / 08 : Why Is the Rally Still Confusing Traders ?. HighPeak Energy , Inc . Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial and Operating Results.
Sources: dailyforex.com, dailyforex.com, manilatimes.net
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Fed Decision in September? - 25 bps increase at 30.0% with $548K traded.
Top volume remains in Fed Decision in September? - 25 bps increase.
Event leaders
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?) | 37.0% | $244K
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in August 2026?
Top volume & odds: ↑ $90 | 41.0% | $63K
Top volume & odds: Yes (Fed rate hike in 2026?) | 49.0% | $62K
Top volume & odds: December 31, 2026 | 85.0% | $22K
ChatGPT gave Google Code Red , prompting co - founder Sergey Brin return ; Now OpenAI Greg Brockman is facing Red Flag. Instabase Becomes SuperApp , Launches the AI Collaboration Super App. Should You Buy Meta Platforms Stock Below $600 Before Mark Zuckerberg Unveils Its AI Cloud Business ? Here My Honest....
GPT - 5 . 6 News | Latest OpenAI Updates
GPT - 5 . 6 News | Latest OpenAI Updates. SpaceXAI Launches Grok 4 . 6 , Matching GPT - 5 . 6 Sol on AI Index. AI Models : Google Gemini 3 . 7 Flash , OpenAI Ultrafast , DeepSeek V4 - Pro.
Sources: newsnow.co.uk, iclarified.com, heise.de
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by IPOs before 2027? - Anthropic at 87.0% with $20K traded.
Top volume remains in IPOs before 2027? - Anthropic.
Event leaders
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
Top volume: ↑$4.0T | 12.5% | $19K
Top odds: ↑$1.25T | 97.4%
Which company has best AI model end of August?
Top volume & odds: Anthropic | 97.6% | $9K
Popular events
The BFI just announced the films in the running for Best Film Award 2026
The BFI just announced the films in the running for Best Film Award 2026. Rasika Dugal drops pictures with Pankaj Tripathi aka Kaleen Bhaiya along with his real - life wife Mridula Tripathi ,.... Christopher Nolan Oppenheimer Now Streaming Free on Two Platforms.
Sources: shortlist.com, bollywoodhungama.com, polygon.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by New "Stranger Things" episode released by...? - December 31, 2026 at 5.0% with $9K traded.
Top volume remains in New "Stranger Things" episode released by...? - December 31, 2026.
Lead event
New "Stranger Things" episode released by...? - December 31, 2026
Trading at 5.0% with $9K in volume.
Event leaders
New "Stranger Things" episode released by...?
Top volume: December 31, 2026 | 5.0% | $9K
Top odds: March 31, 2027 | 11.0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 2.0% | $9K
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 5.0% | $8K
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Top volume: Avengers: Doomsday | 7.0% | $4K
Top odds: Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 93.0%
Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 64.0% | $3K
Bitcoin Price Below $10 , 000 ? ChatGPT Issues Warning as Crypto Is Dead Chatter Surges. Why Chainlink Rose as Bitcoin and Uniswap Weakened. This Is the Best Way to Invest $1 , 000 in Crypto Right Now.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyforex.com, finance.yahoo.com
Data of 54K Wallet Users Leaked , Clarity Odds Just 10 %: Hodler Digest , Aug . 16
Data of 54K Wallet Users Leaked , Clarity Odds Just 10 %: Hodler Digest , Aug . 16. Bitmine Immersion Technologies ( BMNR ) Announces ETH Holdings Reach 5 . 82 Million Tokens , and Total Crypto and Tot.... Bitcoin Holds $62 , 819 as Stablecoins Dominate LatAm.
Sources: cointelegraph.com, manilatimes.net, riotimesonline.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? - ↓ 45,000 at 22.0% with $309K traded.
Top volume remains in What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? - ↓ 45,000.
Event leaders
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?) | 20.0% | $41K
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?) | 4.9% | $19K
Popular events
Uganda : NBS Sport Unveils Dedicated Premier League Platform Ahead of New Season
Uganda : NBS Sport Unveils Dedicated Premier League Platform Ahead of New Season.
Sources: allafrica.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion - Arsenal at 14.0% with $80K traded.
Top volume remains in UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion - Arsenal.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Harry Kane | 57.9% | $34K
MLB World Series Champion 2026
Top volume: Tampa Bay Rays | 7.3% | $27K
Top odds: Los Angeles Dodgers | 32.0%
Popular events
Mobius Foundation ICSE 2026 to Bring Global Sustainability Leaders Together to Advance Education for Transformative A.... Stay tuned to the weather this week : NWS tracking disturbance Invest 92W. Tetra Pak US & Canada : FY25 Sustainability Report Supplement.
Sources: aninews.in, guampdn.com, 3blmedia.com
Rain set to bring temporary relief to scorched Britain - but Met Office warns sixth heatwave could hit in September.
Sources: lbc.co.uk
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes at 3.6% with $11K traded.
Top volume remains in Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?) | 3.6% | $11K
Popular events
+$5,879
+$5,094
+$3,753
Kalshi via Jupiter
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