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News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?" Event volume totals $276M across outcomes, with $1M traded in the last 24 hours. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Abiy Ahmed" at 96.3% and $639 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Fed Decision in September?" Highest implied odds are for "No change" at 71.0%, with top volume on "25 bps decrease" at 1.4% and $978K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? - Alesa Mengesha
$0
Highest implied
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? - August 15
98.6%
Top priced
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? - August 15
98.6%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: August 31 leads the desk at 2.5% with $721K traded.
Lead stories
Trump says US own Strait of Hormuz , threatens Iran with force
Trump says US own Strait of Hormuz , threatens Iran with force. Trump says US has total control of Strait of Hormuz after strike on ship in Gulf of Oman. Strait of Hormuz sees lowest vessel count in a week.
Sources: economictimes.indiatimes.com, moneycontrol.com, samaa.tv
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B
B3
Lead market: Fed Decision in September? - 25 bps decrease leads the desk at 1.4% with $978K traded.
Lead stories
Fed seen sticking to policy - rate hold , for now , as inflation eases again
Fed seen sticking to policy - rate hold , for now , as inflation eases again. The Upcoming Inflation Report Is a Big Deal for the Fed . Here What Economists Expect .. US Fed expected to leave rates unchanged next month after soft inflation data.
Sources: kitco.com, ibtimes.com, economictimes.indiatimes.com
B4
Lead market: Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? - ↑$4.0T leads the desk at 9.4% with $104K traded.
Lead stories
SpaceXAI releases flagship Grok 4 . 6 model with advanced reasoning capabilities
SpaceXAI releases flagship Grok 4 . 6 model with advanced reasoning capabilities. Grok 4 . 6 Appeared on Cursor Editor Then Vanished Within Hours. Anthropic in talks to acquire Nvidia - backed Decart AI for $6 billion : Report.
Sources: siliconangle.com, memeburn.com, livemint.com
IPOs Should Be Approached With Caution , Apollo Top Economist Says
IPOs Should Be Approached With Caution , Apollo Top Economist Says.
B5
Lead market: Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - September 30 leads the desk at 2.2% with $35K traded.
Lead stories
IFFM 2026 opens in Melbourne with Rishab Shetty , Dulquer Salmaan
IFFM 2026 opens in Melbourne with Rishab Shetty , Dulquer Salmaan. Nina What Trending : You Could Get Fined $17 , 000 for Packing THIS ?! | JAMN 107 . 5. Nina What Trending : You Could Get Fined $17 , 000 for Packing THIS ?! | 93 . 9 The Beat.
Sources: dailypioneer.com, jamn1075.iheart.com, 939beat.iheart.com
B6
Lead market: Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 21.0% with $473K traded.
Lead stories
The Clarity Act long stay in legislative limbo needs to end
The Clarity Act long stay in legislative limbo needs to end. Cabinet approves proposed Electoral Act amendments to improve accessibility. Bangkok Post - Merkle advises watching US Bitcoin bill.
Sources: americanbanker.com, fijivillage.com, bangkokpost.com
B7
Lead market: NBA: 2027 Champion - Minnesota Timberwolves leads the desk at 3.3% with $148K traded.
Lead stories
NBA Slam Dunk champion , G - League MVP , set to join overseas team owned by Marc Gasol
NBA Slam Dunk champion , G - League MVP , set to join overseas team owned by Marc Gasol. The NBA scoring champion quiz. LeBron James and 76ers to open season against NBA champion New York Knicks ; will face Los Angeles Lakers on Christmas.
Sources: thebiglead.com, yardbarker.com, 6abc.com
Chelsea set Friday deadline for Fernández suitors as City reject new £51m Barça bid for Rodri
Chelsea set Friday deadline for Fernández suitors as City reject new £51m Barça bid for Rodri. PSG down Aston Villa to retain UEFA Super Cup. Man City transfers : Barcelona’s second Rodri bid rejected as City make ultimatum to skipper over dream move.
B8
Lead market: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 3.9% with $21K traded.
Lead stories
Heavy rainfall and flooding raise infectious disease risks across Europe
Heavy rainfall and flooding raise infectious disease risks across Europe.
Sources: news-medical.net
AI Giants Are Quiet on Climate in Sign of Post - ESG Wall Street
AI Giants Are Quiet on Climate in Sign of Post - ESG Wall Street. Wrong , Reno Gazette Journal , a Flawed Climate Study Doesnt Prove Future Desertification for Reno. Tourism Authority of Thailand Drives Low - Carbon Transformation Through the CF - Hotels Initiative.
Sources: insurancejournal.com, ,
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
$172K
$3 billion cash , 2 tonnes of gold , 15 planes : Is UAE appeasing Iran to avoid being dragged into the war ?. Hypocrisy is blatant , embarrassing : Araghchi slams France over condemnation of alleged protester executions in Iran. Soon in a trash can : Iran mocks Trump secret getaway via catering truck.
Iran prepares for prolonged war as US talks over Hormuz remain stalled
Iran prepares for prolonged war as US talks over Hormuz remain stalled. We have learned how to fight America : What IRGC Mohammad Reza Naqdi said about Iran long - term war strategy. Iran looks to join BRICS bank as war with U . S . drags on.
Sources: timesofindia.indiatimes.com, livemint.com, cnbc.com
Event leaders
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
Top volume & odds: August 31 | 2.5% | $721K
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
Top volume: August 15 | 2.5% | $314K
Top odds: December 31 | 81.7%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?) | 18.0% | $199K
Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner
Top volume: James Fishback | 2.0% | $198K
Top odds: Byron Donalds | 98.1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?) | 16.0% | $187K
Popular events
Vol $721K
15.6%
—
$13M
—
Republican nominee
Event volume $687M
Presidential election
Event volume $682M
Chicago Fed Austan Goolsbee says inflation is Fed top problem. Surging bond yields reveals Trump dilemma. Best CD rates today , Thursday , August 13 , 2026 : Lock in up to 4 . 30 % APY with a 16 - month CD.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, thestar.com.my, finance.yahoo.com
Trump says US own Strait of Hormuz , threatens Iran with force
Trump says US own Strait of Hormuz , threatens Iran with force. Trump says US has total control of Strait of Hormuz after strike on ship in Gulf of Oman. Japanese premier urges free and safe navigation in Strait of Hormuz without additional cost – Middle East Monitor.
Sources: economictimes.indiatimes.com, moneycontrol.com, middleeastmonitor.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Fed Decision in September? - 25 bps decrease at 1.4% with $978K traded.
Top volume remains in Fed Decision in September? - 25 bps decrease.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Fed rate hike in 2026?) | 52.0% | $256K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?) | 46.0% | $124K
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in August 2026?
Top volume: ↑ $100 | 8.0% | $51K
Top odds: ↑ $85 | 60.0%
Popular events
Sources: businessinsider.com
Salesforce stock gets a boost as J . P . Morgan says AI fears are overblown
Salesforce stock gets a boost as J . P . Morgan says AI fears are overblown.
Sources: morningstar.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? - ↑$4.0T at 9.4% with $104K traded.
Top volume remains in Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? - ↑$4.0T.
Lead event
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? - ↑$4.0T
Trading at 9.4% with $104K in volume.
Event leaders
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
Top volume: ↑$4.0T | 9.4% | $104K
Top odds: ↑$1.25T | 96.8%
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
Top volume & odds: SpaceX | 71.0% | $87K
Which company has best AI model end of August?
Top volume & odds: Anthropic | 95.0% | $20K
Top volume & odds: Yes (Human moon landing in 2026?) | 1.3% | $9K
Top volume & odds: Anthropic | 80.0% | $9K
Wednesday August 12th - Open Thread - The Last Refuge. Do Jews Believe in Jesus ? - Explore the Bible. Public Invited to Tour New Phnom Penh Temple of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter - day Saints.
Hollywood Billion - Dollar Black Stars The 10 Highest - Grossing Black Actors Of All Time
Hollywood Billion - Dollar Black Stars The 10 Highest - Grossing Black Actors Of All Time. The Odyssey North America Box Office : Christopher Nolan Epic Beats Toy Story 5 , Becomes 2nd Highest - Grossing Film.... The Odyssey OTT release : When and where to watch Christopher Nolan highest - grossing movie of all time.
Sources: blackamericaweb.com, koimoi.com, gqindia.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - September 30 at 2.2% with $35K traded.
Top volume remains in Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - September 30.
Lead event
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - September 30
Trading at 2.2% with $35K in volume.
Event leaders
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume: September 30 | 2.2% | $35K
Top odds: December 31 | 5.0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 2.1% | $23K
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 93.0% | $11K
Who will attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?
Top volume: Edu Aguirre | 5.8% | $9K
Top odds: Sir Alex Ferguson | 6.0%
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
Top volume & odds: 1 | 68.0% | $2K
They Wont Stop Printing The Real $1 . 8 Trillion Reason Why The Fed Is Quietly Predicted To Trigger A Massive Bitcoin.... Bitcoin Price Analysis : Key Levels to Watch. Anthony Pompliano Says He Betting on the Stupidity of Governments : If They Keep Printing Money , Bitcoin Will Go Up.
Sources: forbes.com, coinspeaker.com, finance.yahoo.com
Why the Coldhard hack hurt more than your average crypto hack
Why the Coldhard hack hurt more than your average crypto hack. Wall Street Is deepening Its crypto grip and rewiring the market. An Essential Guide to the New Grunge Streetwear.
Sources: fortune.com, economictimes.indiatimes.com, highsnobiety.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? - Yes at 21.0% with $473K traded.
Top volume remains in Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?) | 21.0% | $473K
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?) | 4.7% | $36K
Top volume & odds: December 31, 2026 | 4.8% | $20K
Popular events
Sources: aol.co.uk, tribune.com.pk, teamtalk.com
Where to watch NFL preseason games : Week 1 schedule
Where to watch NFL preseason games : Week 1 schedule. The Most NFL field goal quiz. Chiefs , Rams , Seahawks Have Most - Optimistic Fans.
Sources: abc7news.com, yardbarker.com, kfyi.iheart.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by NBA: 2027 Champion - Minnesota Timberwolves at 3.3% with $148K traded.
Top volume remains in NBA: 2027 Champion - Minnesota Timberwolves.
Event leaders
Top volume: Minnesota Timberwolves | 3.3% | $148K
Top odds: Oklahoma City Thunder | 22.0%
Top volume & odds: Los Angeles Rams | 14.0% | $40K
Popular events
Met Office weather maps name 51 areas finally about to get heavy rain
Met Office weather maps name 51 areas finally about to get heavy rain.
Sources: express.co.uk
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes at 3.9% with $21K traded.
Top volume remains in Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?) | 3.9% | $21K
Popular events
+$3,336
+$2,923
+$2,864
Kalshi via Jupiter
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