Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?" Event volume totals $269M across outcomes, with $3M traded in the last 24 hours. Highest implied odds are for "Abiy Ahmed" at 96.1%, with top volume on "Adanech Abiebie" at 1.7% and $738K 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?)" at 61.0% and $83K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? - Adanech Abiebie
$738K
Highest implied
Clacton by-election Winner - Nigel Farage
98.9%
Top priced
Clacton by-election Winner - Nigel Farage
98.9%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? - Adanech Abiebie leads the desk at 1.7% with $738K traded.
Lead stories
Ethiopia Pursuing Three - Pillar Strategic Self - Reliance to Safeguard Sovereignty - PM Abiy
Ethiopia Pursuing Three - Pillar Strategic Self - Reliance to Safeguard Sovereignty - PM Abiy. Ethiopia : PM Abiy Calls On Natl Dialogue Conference Participants to Embrace Responsibility , Safeguard Sovereignty. Anna Hakobyan to attend peace forum in Ethiopia.
Sources: allafrica.com, allafrica.com, panarmenian.net
Will Iran - Oman deal end the Strait of Hormuz crisis ? What we know
Will Iran - Oman deal end the Strait of Hormuz crisis ? What we know. US - Iran War Live Updates : Understanding with Oman does not signify full reopening of Strait of Hormuz , says. Middle East crisis live : US and Iran signal hope for Hormuz deal but terms unclear.
Sources:
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? - Yes leads the desk at 61.0% with $83K traded.
Lead stories
Will Iran - Oman deal end the Strait of Hormuz crisis ? What we know
Will Iran - Oman deal end the Strait of Hormuz crisis ? What we know. US - Iran War Live Updates : Understanding with Oman does not signify full reopening of Strait of Hormuz , says. Middle East crisis live : US and Iran signal hope for Hormuz deal but terms unclear.
Sources: thenews.com.pk, livemint.com, theguardian.com
B4
Lead market: Which companies will be acquired before 2027? - Nebius Group leads the desk at 6.7% with $31K traded.
Lead stories
Are Top AI Talent Leaving Google to Apply AGI and ASI for Giant Leaps in Science – NextBigFuture . com. Confirming rumors , Anthropic reveals plan to develop custom chip. Anthropic Confirms In - House Chip Team : Co - Design Bet Could Cut Claude Inference Costs in Half.
Sources: nextbigfuture.com, siliconangle.com, techtimes.com
B5
Lead market: Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes leads the desk at 2.0% with $256K traded.
Lead stories
How to get Manchester tickets for £16 for Jesus Christ Superstar starring Sam Ryder
How to get Manchester tickets for £16 for Jesus Christ Superstar starring Sam Ryder. If indeed one ought to call him a man : New study shows historical Jesus had bigger impact than we thought. Jesus Christ Superstar with Sam Ryder in London and on tour – review.
Sources: manchestereveningnews.co.uk, theblaze.com, whatsonstage.com
B6
Lead market: What price will Bitcoin hit in August? - ↓ 50,000 leads the desk at 2.9% with $38K traded.
Lead stories
Bitcoin and ethereum prices today , Thursday , August 6 , 2026 : Prices firm as Hormuz negotiations continue and ADP.... Situation Is Extremely Bad Bitcoin Braced For More Critical Exploits After $10 , 000 Price Per Day AI Warning. Got $100 ? This Is the Best Crypto ETF to Buy Right Now.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, forbes.com, finance.yahoo.com
B7
Lead market: Chicago White Sox leads the desk at 48.0% with $250K traded.
Lead stories
Guardians vs . White Sox Series Injured List - Aug . 7 - 9
Guardians vs . White Sox Series Injured List - Aug . 7 - 9. Guardians vs . White Sox Series Injured List - Aug . 7 - 9. Abreu homers again , Gray gets 14th victory as Boston Red Sox beat Chicago White Sox for seventh straight win.
Sources: sportsradio957.iheart.com, wncoam.iheart.com, tsn.ca
CCEP ( CCEP ) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
CCEP ( CCEP ) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript.
B8
Lead market: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 4.0% with $187K traded.
Lead stories
Antisemitic theories blaming Jews for European wildfires spreading
Antisemitic theories blaming Jews for European wildfires spreading. Antisemitic theories blaming Jews for European wildfires spreading. Online antisemites blame Jews for Europe wildfires – San Diego Jewish World.
Sources: jpost.com, jpost.com, sdjewishworld.com
Southwire Sustainability Report 2025 : Carbon Zero Achieved , Scope 1 & 2 Emissions Down 25 %, Targets 54 . 8 % GHG C.... Concerned by our climate ? You should not vote Republican .. Keysight 2025 Corporate Social Responsibility Progress Report : Environmental Sustainability.
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
Fed Decision in September?
Senate Summer Pileup Is Threatening a Quick Escape
Senate Summer Pileup Is Threatening a Quick Escape. The Latest : El - Sayed defeats Stevens to win Democratic Senate nomination in Michigan. The Latest : Trump talks up the economy at a Las Vegas casino.
Sources: politicalwire.com, thegazette.com, local10.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? - Adanech Abiebie at 1.7% with $738K traded.
Top volume remains in Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? - Adanech Abiebie.
Event leaders
Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
Top volume: Adanech Abiebie | 1.7% | $738K
Top odds: Abiy Ahmed | 96.1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
Top volume: August 15 | 1.6% | $343K
Top odds: August 31 | 15.0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?) | 18.0% | $209K
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
Top volume: August 7 | 19.4% | $195K
Top odds: December 31 | 95.6%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?) | 3.8% | $155K
Popular events
14.8%
+0.3pp
$14M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $685M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $678M0%
A serious mistake : Moody Analytics economist says the Fed is putting the economy at risk with its silence. Kevin Warsh to stick with lean Fed messaging despite market backlash. Trump has called Warsh repeatedly since he became Fed chair.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, irishtimes.com, livemint.com
Oman oil price drops by $1 . 72 to $77 . 44 per barrel
Oman oil price drops by $1 . 72 to $77 . 44 per barrel. Oil prices today : Crude slips as Iran - Oman talks fuel hopes of peace deal , Hormuz reopening. Oil Prices dip as traders anticipate Middle - East developments.
Sources: timesofoman.com, timesofindia.indiatimes.com, thepeninsulaqatar.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? - Yes at 61.0% with $83K traded.
Top volume remains in Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? - Yes.
Lead event
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? - Yes
Trading at 61.0% with $83K in volume.
Event leaders
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?) | 61.0% | $83K
Top volume & odds: No change | 49.0% | $52K
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in August 2026?
Top volume: ↑ $85 | 49.0% | $52K
Top odds: ↓ $75 | 81.0%
Top volume & odds: Yes (Fed rate hike in 2026?) | 64.0% | $27K
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will GameStop acquire eBay?) | 13.0% | $25K
SpaceX doubles revenue on Anthropic and Google compute deals , Starlink growth. Anthropic confirms plans to build own chips amid global shortage. OpenAI , Anthropic Models Created Fake Profiles , Tried To Trick Humans During Cyber Tests.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, siliconrepublic.com, zerohedge.com
Meta launches Muse Code tool amid AI hacking revelations
Meta launches Muse Code tool amid AI hacking revelations. Jeff Dean and Sanjay Ghemawat Depart Google to Co - Found Discovery Loop. Meta AI model follows rivals in revealing hacks of outside systems | Science and Technology News.
Sources: euronews.com, techtimes.com, aljazeera.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Which companies will be acquired before 2027? - Nebius Group at 6.7% with $31K traded.
Top volume remains in Which companies will be acquired before 2027? - Nebius Group.
Lead event
Which companies will be acquired before 2027? - Nebius Group
Trading at 6.7% with $31K in volume.
Event leaders
Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
Top volume: Nebius Group | 6.7% | $31K
Top odds: MGM Resorts | 40.0%
Which company has best AI model end of August?
Top volume & odds: Anthropic | 91.0% | $12K
Top volume & odds: Yes (Human moon landing in 2026?) | 2.0% | $9K
Top volume & odds: December 31, 2026 | 15.9% | $9K
When will Satoshi's identity be proven?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 4.1% | $8K
Isabella Rossellini Explains Why She Lives in US Despite Bad Politics. Jana Nayagan Full Movie Collection : Jana Nayagan box office collection day 15 [ Live ]: Vijay and Pooja Hegde film s.... Lauryn Hill Says Her Actions Speak Through Ambitious Diaspora Festival.
Why Hannah Brown Is Delaying Baby Plans With Husband Adam
Why Hannah Brown Is Delaying Baby Plans With Husband Adam. The Secret Lives Of Mormon Wive Renewed For Another 20 Episodes At Hulu. The Secret Lives of Mormon Wives Renewed , Season 6 Filming.
Sources: usmagazine.com, deadline.com, usmagazine.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes at 2.0% with $256K traded.
Top volume remains in Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes.
Event leaders
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 2.0% | $256K
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 6.0% | $144K
Top volume: Richard Van De Water | 1.1% | $12K
Top odds: Other (Season Cancelled) | 69.0%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by...?
Top volume: December 31, 2026 | 5.0% | $5K
Top odds: March 31, 2027 | 12.0%
Popular events
Clarity Act : Here what could happen with the crypto market structure legislation
Clarity Act : Here what could happen with the crypto market structure legislation. Crypto Legislation Delay Disappointing , but Doesnt Change the Direction of Travel for Digital Assets. If Clarity Dies , Democrats Killed It : Lummis Urges Senate To Act On Crypto Bill Before Recess.
Sources: coindesk.com, benzinga.com, zerohedge.com
Hashdex Pulls Plug on $14 . 7M Bitcoin ETF as Scale Kills Viability
Hashdex Pulls Plug on $14 . 7M Bitcoin ETF as Scale Kills Viability. Bitcoin 500 - Day Rule Once Predicted Bull Runs . Wall Street May Be Changing That. If you bought SpaceX stock and Bitcoin on launch , here is what each is worth today.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, ibtimes.com, finance.yahoo.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by What price will Bitcoin hit in August? - ↓ 50,000 at 2.9% with $38K traded.
Top volume remains in What price will Bitcoin hit in August? - ↓ 50,000.
Event leaders
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?) | 16.0% | $25K
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?) | 5.3% | $22K
Popular events
Sources: fool.com
Formula One Esports world champion from Wales becomes youngest ever
Formula One Esports world champion from Wales becomes youngest ever. F1 : Chequered Flag - Chequered Flag Extra : School out for summer. Max Verstappen to McLaren under scrutiny from former champion.
Sources: bbc.co.uk, bbc.co.uk, planetf1.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by Chicago White Sox at 48.0% with $250K traded.
Top volume remains in Chicago White Sox.
Event leaders
Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox
Top volume: Chicago White Sox | 48.0% | $250K
Top odds: Boston Red Sox | 53.0%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
Top volume & odds: Boston Red Sox | 57.0% | $17K
Popular events
Vol $250K
Sources: greentechlead.com, pressherald.com, csrwire.com
After nearly 80 years , Rajasthan Roadways bus reaches Ajmer village for the first time ; residents celebrate in rain....
Sources: timesofindia.indiatimes.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes at 4.0% with $187K traded.
Top volume remains in Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?) | 4.0% | $187K
Popular events
+$5,096
+$3,809
+$3,336
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
Leaderboard