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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
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Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?" Event volume totals $243M across outcomes, with $8M traded in the last 24 hours. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Abiy Ahmed" at 95.1% and $990 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Fed Decision in July?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "No change" at 75.0% and $4M 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Volume leaders
B1
Lead market: August 31 leads the desk at 10.0% with $491K traded.
Lead stories
US accuses Iran IRGC of threatening ships in Strait of Hormuz , says waterway remains open
US accuses Iran IRGC of threatening ships in Strait of Hormuz , says waterway remains open. Progress reported in talks to resolve Strait of Hormuz crisis. Progress reported in talks to resolve Strait of Hormuz crisis.
Sources: moneycontrol.com, jpost.com, jpost.com
We will hit Iran hard : Trump warns of fresh US strikes after attack on American targets in Jordan
We will hit Iran hard : Trump warns of fresh US strikes after attack on American targets in Jordan.
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Fed Decision in July? - No change leads the desk at 75.0% with $4M traded.
Lead stories
US Fed decision today : What time is the announcement ? Rate expectations and where to watch
US Fed decision today : What time is the announcement ? Rate expectations and where to watch. July FOMC : Fed holds interest rates steady. Warsh plan for a more opaque Fed put to the test by markets on edge.
Sources: hindustantimes.com, foxbusiness.com, cnbc.com
B4
Lead market: Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? - SpaceX leads the desk at 87.0% with $8K traded.
Lead stories
Anthropic IPO Could Be a $240 Billion Moment for Amazon ( AMZN )
Anthropic IPO Could Be a $240 Billion Moment for Amazon ( AMZN ). CXMT blockbuster debut fuels China AI chip ambitions. CXMT blockbuster debut fuels China AI chip ambitions.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, laosnews.net, bruneinews.net
It Frighteningly Easy to Jailbreak Some Frontier AI Models
It Frighteningly Easy to Jailbreak Some Frontier AI Models. Chaos at xAI ... Just as Elon Musk Needs Investors to Believe in AI. Nvidia Alliance Backs Open Source AI After Hugging Face Breach.
B5
Lead market: Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 leads the desk at 6.0% with $18K traded.
Lead stories
Prince Purple Rain musical to make 2027 Broadway debut
Prince Purple Rain musical to make 2027 Broadway debut. Hadestown : The Musical film produced by Wright State grad is a high - earner in theaters | Dayton Events. Why 2026 Belongs To Michael Jackson , Madonna And Paul McCartney.
Sources: asiaone.com, daytondailynews.com, forbes.com
B6
Lead market: Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 29.0% with $205K traded.
Lead stories
British Council Sri Lanka transfers vocational qualification attestation to TVEC
British Council Sri Lanka transfers vocational qualification attestation to TVEC. Bitcoin Doesnt Need CLARITY , Anthony Pompliano Says : Well Hit All - Time Highs Either Way. Clarity Act Vote Delayed as US Fed Rate Hike Speculation Intensifies Over Inflation.
Sources: ft.lk, benzinga.com, bravenewcoin.com
B7
Lead market: Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 - Kylian Mbappé leads the desk at 11.4% with $37K traded.
Lead stories
Cristiano Ronaldo sets drama debut with Matthew Vaughn , Damian Lewis
Cristiano Ronaldo sets drama debut with Matthew Vaughn , Damian Lewis. Man City Rodri undergoes back surgery - Ghanaian Times. Man City : Real Madrid get green light to sign Rodri as Viana chases heir as part of astonishing £321m triple raid.
Sources: philstar.com, ghanaiantimes.com.gh, teamtalk.com
B8
Lead market: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 3.6% with $31K traded.
Lead stories
Hantavirus doesnt linger , requires close contact : Officials – KTBB News , Weather , Talk
Hantavirus doesnt linger , requires close contact : Officials – KTBB News , Weather , Talk.
Sources: ktbb.com
Gas emissions fall but progress still too slow
Gas emissions fall but progress still too slow. Column : Isle climate laws must be strengthened | Honolulu Star - Advertiser. Soil , Peat Fires Fueled Canada 2023 Emissions Spike.
Sources: rte.ie, staradvertiser.com, miragenews.com
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
97.9%
$353
Sources: moneycontrol.com
If your nominee passes away before you , here what happens to your investments
If your nominee passes away before you , here what happens to your investments. Property inheritance : How this one document can prevent family disputes later. Thai police uncover alleged Chinese nominee network behind 33 Bangkok luxury homes.
Sources: moneycontrol.com, livemint.com, thestar.com.my
Event leaders
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
Top volume & odds: August 31 | 10.0% | $491K
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?) | 25.0% | $280K
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Top volume: Mark Kelly | 3.4% | $216K
Top odds: Gavin Newsom | 19.4%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
Top volume: July 31 | 6.0% | $165K
Top odds: December 31 | 88.0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?) | 10.0% | $141K
Popular events
Vol $491K
12.7%
-1.2pp
$14M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $682M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $674M0%
US Fed meeting outcome today : Here date , time , expectations , where to watch Kevin Warsh speech. Rate rise roulette : Why the RBA is about to get it wrong again. U . S . Fed holds interest rate despite some dissents as inflation persists - National.
Sources: livemint.com, switzer.com.au, globalnews.ca
Federal Reserve expected to not change rates
Federal Reserve expected to not change rates. The Fed hawks are winning even without a rate hike. US Fed begins meeting with markets expecting steady interest rates.
Sources: bnnbloomberg.ca, housingwire.com, digitaljournal.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Fed Decision in July? - No change at 75.0% with $4M traded.
Top volume remains in Fed Decision in July? - No change.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: No change | 75.0% | $4M
Top volume: Largest Company end of July? | 12.0% | $258K
Top odds: Apple | 89.6%
Top volume & odds: Yes (Fed rate hike in 2026?) | 76.0% | $253K
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in July 2026?
Top volume: ↑ $95 | 11.4% | $197K
Top odds: ↑ $90 | 32.8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?) | 55.0% | $160K
Popular events
Vol $258K
Vol $253K
Sources: wired.com, lnt.ma, forbes.com
Famous Investor Michael Burry Is Short Nvidia , Palantir , and Tesla . Why Id Buy 1 of the Stocks , Hold Another , an.... AI Singularity : What Sam Altman Actually Means. CoreWeave and Nebius gain after report links Nvidia to major OpenAI infrastructure financing.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, forbes.com, finance.yahoo.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? - SpaceX at 87.0% with $8K traded.
Top volume remains in Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? - SpaceX.
Event leaders
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
Top volume & odds: SpaceX | 87.0% | $8K
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
Top volume: ↑$2.5T | 21.0% | $6K
Top odds: ↑$1.25T | 86.0%
Top volume & odds: December 31, 2026 | 22.0% | $2K
Top volume & odds: December 31, 2026 | 19.0% | $1K
Popular events
Michael Is Moonwalking to Streaming Sooner Than You Think. Michael Is Moonwalking to Streaming Sooner Than You Think. Michael Is Moonwalking to Streaming Sooner Than You Think.
Sources: 1077thebounce.com, foxy99.com, hot969boston.com
Catholic Caucus : Daily Mass Readings 29 - July - 2026
Catholic Caucus : Daily Mass Readings 29 - July - 2026. For All or For Many ? Clearing Up the Controversy. Pope Leo to young Catholics : Jesus doesnt want you to be couch potatoes.
Sources: freerepublic.com, crisismagazine.com, americamagazine.org
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 at 6.0% with $18K traded.
Top volume remains in Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31.
Lead event
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31
Trading at 6.0% with $18K in volume.
Event leaders
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 6.0% | $18K
New "Stranger Things" episode released by...?
Top volume: December 31, 2026 | 5.0% | $17K
Top odds: March 31, 2027 | 17.0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 2.0% | $10K
Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Avengers: Doomsday | 58.0% | $8K
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 83.0% | $7K
Bitcoin and ethereum prices today , Wednesday , July 29 , 2026 : Crypto investors watching the Fed decision closely. Cryptos Rise While War Widens , Crude Climbs , FOMC Looms And Chip Dip Grows. Current price of Bitcoin for July 29 , 2026.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, finanznachrichten.de, fortune.com
Bitcoin Is Suddenly Braced For A Huge Fed Price Shock
Bitcoin Is Suddenly Braced For A Huge Fed Price Shock. A Tactical Edge for Bitcoin : Amplify Premieres BNAV. Strategy CEO Phong Le Says Bitcoin Can Drop Below $10 , 000 Without Putting Stress on MSTR . Here Why He Right ..
Sources: forbes.com, etftrends.com, fool.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? - Yes at 29.0% with $205K traded.
Top volume remains in Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?) | 29.0% | $205K
Will Base launch a token by ___ ?
Top volume: September 30, 2026 | 4.1% | $20K
Top odds: December 31, 2027 | 64.0%
Popular events
LeBron James , 76ers To Play NBA - High 34 National TV Games In 2026 - 27. NBA fans stunned by Nikola Jokic horse racing celebration : Happier than winning the championship. New NBA Rumors on Timeline for James Harden , Draymond Green Contracts With Cavs , Warriors.
Sources: forbes.com, hitc.com, bleacherreport.com
Pokémon Champions of Champions trainer bringing high - octane energy to competition
Pokémon Champions of Champions trainer bringing high - octane energy to competition. Pokémon Champions of Champions trainer bringing high - octane energy to competit. Gukesh to face challenger Sindarov in World Chess Championship match at Geneva.
Sources: aol.co.uk, express.co.uk, prokerala.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 - Kylian Mbappé at 11.4% with $37K traded.
Top volume remains in Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 - Kylian Mbappé.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Kimi Antonelli | 73.6% | $30K
Popular events
Animal Welfare Assessment on the July 24 Davao Flooding
Animal Welfare Assessment on the July 24 Davao Flooding.
Sources: sunstar.com.ph
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes at 3.6% with $31K traded.
Top volume remains in Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?) | 3.6% | $31K
Popular events
+$61,062
+$47,014
+$44,498
Kalshi via Jupiter
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