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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Will Alberta join the US?" Event volume totals $2M across outcomes. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Will Alberta join the US?)" at 2.6% and $0 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Fed Decision in July?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "No change" at 74.0% and $1M 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑10k
$0
Highest implied
MLB: NL Platinum Glove Winner - Pete Crow-Armstrong
98.8%
Top priced
MLB: NL Platinum Glove Winner - Pete Crow-Armstrong
98.8%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? - Yes leads the desk at 30.0% with $660K traded.
Lead stories
US - Iran war news LIVE : Trump threatens Iran will no longer exist ; air raid sirens in Bahrain , Kuwait.
Sources: hindustantimes.com
Trump just turbocharged Iran nuclear ambitions in a big way : report
Trump just turbocharged Iran nuclear ambitions in a big way : report. Trump says China , Russia assured him they are not arming Iran. Trump says China , Russia assured him they are not arming Iran.
Sources: rawstory.com,
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Fed Decision in July? - No change leads the desk at 74.0% with $1M traded.
Lead stories
The Probability of a July Fed Rate Hike Has Tripled Over the Last Week -- Here Why
The Probability of a July Fed Rate Hike Has Tripled Over the Last Week -- Here Why. The Probability of a July Fed Rate Hike Has Tripled Over the Last Week -- Here Why. Kevin Warsh Just Vowed to Bring a Regime Change to the Fed . It Could Rattle Wall Street ..
B4
Lead market: Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? - SpaceX leads the desk at 86.0% with $9K traded.
Lead stories
Better Buy : SpaceX or Nvidia ?
Better Buy : SpaceX or Nvidia ?. Elon Musk Wouldnt Rule Out a Tesla - SpaceX Merger on the July 22 Earnings Call . Here What It Would Mean for the Sha.... Elon Musk Wouldnt Rule Out a Tesla - SpaceX Merger on the July 22 Earnings Call . Here What It Would Mean for the Sha....
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, fool.com, fool.com
B5
Lead market: Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes leads the desk at 2.0% with $15K traded.
Lead stories
7 Common Misquotes of Jesus We Should Avoid - Topical Studies
7 Common Misquotes of Jesus We Should Avoid - Topical Studies. Venezuela bishops insist earthquakes are not a punishment from God | News Headlines. When Christianity becomes a label instead of following the w ....
Sources: biblestudytools.com, catholicculture.org, dexterstatesman.com
Charli XCX Taps David Cronenberg For a Collab That Explains Music , Fashion , Film
Charli XCX Taps David Cronenberg For a Collab That Explains Music , Fashion , Film. Diaspora Insurance brings prizes to ZimFest 2026 – Nehanda Radio. Eniola Ajao : How she rewrote her Nollywood story.
B6
Lead market: What price will Bitcoin hit in July? - ↑ 67,500 leads the desk at 23.0% with $156K traded.
Lead stories
Bitcoin May Have Already Bottomed If the Fed Helps , Says Grayscale
Bitcoin May Have Already Bottomed If the Fed Helps , Says Grayscale. A Quantum Roadmap Would Push Bitcoin Much Higher. Is Bitcoin Still a Millionaire Maker ? | The Motley Fool.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, zerohedge.com, fool.com
Quantum Roadmap Would Push Bitcoin Much Higher : Charles Edwards
Quantum Roadmap Would Push Bitcoin Much Higher : Charles Edwards. $981M Bitcoin ETF Streak Signals Institutional Re - Entry , $70K in Sight. Michael Saylor Strategy Just Unveiled a New Bitcoin Banking Index . Here What That Signals for MSTR Stock ..
B7
Lead market: Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 - Harry Kane leads the desk at 41.0% with $126K traded.
Lead stories
Enzo Maresca insists Man City wont repeat what Man Utd did after Sir Alex Ferguson
Enzo Maresca insists Man City wont repeat what Man Utd did after Sir Alex Ferguson. Modric extends Milan stay for another year. Kevin Keegan fan bid for fitting tribute to England legend in Scunthorpe where career began.
Sources: aol.co.uk, middle-east-online.com, aol.co.uk
Lando Norris hits out at Formula One for putting money ahead of drivers
Lando Norris hits out at Formula One for putting money ahead of drivers. Aston Martin success under Adrian Newey is only a matter of time , says former F1 driver. Max Verstappen : Fernando Alonso is still a top - five driver in F1.
B8
Lead market: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 3.6% with $5K traded.
Lead stories
Hantavirus doesnt linger , requires close contact : Officials – KTBB News , Weather , Talk
Hantavirus doesnt linger , requires close contact : Officials – KTBB News , Weather , Talk.
Sources: ktbb.com
There are already more US measles cases this year than in all of 2025 - WSVN 7News | Miami News , Weather , Sports.
Sources: wsvn.com
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
Should Swiss neutrality be stricter ? Voters will decide
Should Swiss neutrality be stricter ? Voters will decide. Cornyn , Tillis Drag Their Feet On Blanche AG Nomination. Why SA needs to tame its lobbying Wild West.
Sources: swissinfo.ch, thefederalist.com, dailymaverick.co.za
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? - Yes at 30.0% with $660K traded.
Top volume remains in Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? - Yes.
Event leaders
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?) | 30.0% | $660K
Top volume & odds: Mojtaba Khamenei | 73.7% | $230K
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Top volume: Josh Shapiro | 5.3% | $171K
Top odds: Gavin Newsom | 19.8%
Popular events
14.5%
0.0pp
$14M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $679M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $670M0%
Overseas Buyers In Hot Pursuit of united states Crude. WTI Explodes Higher as Middle East Shipping Risks Multiply. Crude oil turns lower as reports say China pushing to resume U . S .- Iran talks ( USO : NYSEARCA ).
Sources: rigzone.com, oilprice.com, seekingalpha.com
Budget 2027 : From stabilisation to transformation
Budget 2027 : From stabilisation to transformation. Budget 2027 : From stabilisation to transformation. Another Fed Rate Hike Would Be a Serious Mistake.
Sources: ft.lk, ft.lk, theepochtimes.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Fed Decision in July? - No change at 74.0% with $1M traded.
Top volume remains in Fed Decision in July? - No change.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: No change | 74.0% | $1M
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in July 2026?
Top volume: ↑ $120 | 1.6% | $83K
Top odds: ↑ $95 | 48.3%
Top volume & odds: Yes (Fed rate hike in 2026?) | 72.0% | $62K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?) | 52.0% | $42K
Popular events
Nvidia , SK Group unveil $500 billion - plus AI data centres initiative , memory partnership. Nvidia , Microsoft , Meta warn against overregulating open - weight models. Caution Is Warranted : Ed Dowd Warns Wall Street AI CapEx Party Is Ending.
Sources: economictimes.indiatimes.com, cnbc.com, zerohedge.com
OpenAI Employees Dropped More Than $296 , 000 On Democrats While Republicans Got Nothing , Filings Show. AMD invests up to $5 billion in Anthropic , secures AI deal. AMD invests up to $5 billion in Anthropic , secures AI deal.
Sources: dailycaller.com, afghanistansun.com, parisguardian.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? - SpaceX at 86.0% with $9K traded.
Top volume remains in Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? - SpaceX.
Event leaders
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
Top volume & odds: SpaceX | 86.0% | $9K
Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
Top volume: Zoom Video Communications | 19.8% | $783
Top odds: PayPal | 62.0%
Top volume & odds: December 31, 2026 | 19.0% | $732
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
Top volume: ↓$800B | 19.0% | $150
Top odds: ↑$1.25T | 85.0%
Sources: gq.com, nehandaradio.com, punchng.com
Michael Worldwide Box Office : Officially Beats The Super Mario Galaxy Movie As 2026 Top Grosser
Michael Worldwide Box Office : Officially Beats The Super Mario Galaxy Movie As 2026 Top Grosser. Highest Grossing IMAX Movies of All Time. Disney reportedly lays off hundreds of employees , Pixar hit hard despite blockbuster success.
Sources: koimoi.com, blackamericaweb.com, fox4news.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes at 2.0% with $15K traded.
Top volume remains in Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes.
Event leaders
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 2.0% | $15K
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 6.0% | $5K
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Top volume: The Odyssey | 3.2% | $4K
Top odds: Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 80.0%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by...?
Top volume: December 31, 2026 | 6.0% | $4K
Top odds: March 31, 2027 | 20.0%
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
Top volume: 1 | 41.0% | $274
Top odds: 2 | 56.0%
Sources: cointelegraph.com, finance.yahoo.com, fool.com
Family & domestic violence researcher claims emergency alert could put survivors at risk
Family & domestic violence researcher claims emergency alert could put survivors at risk. Student who posted girl images for predators gets 15 years.
Sources: perthnow.com.au, nonpareilonline.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by What price will Bitcoin hit in July? - ↑ 67,500 at 23.0% with $156K traded.
Top volume remains in What price will Bitcoin hit in July? - ↑ 67,500.
Event leaders
Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Top volume & odds: $50M | 90.5% | $41K
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?) | 33.0% | $25K
Popular events
Sources: aol.co.uk, motorsport.com, motorsport.com
Trump jokes about tariffs for Mexico lettuce , Canada wildfire smoke
Trump jokes about tariffs for Mexico lettuce , Canada wildfire smoke. Two more wrestlers qualify for WWE SummerSlam ladder match. Fury defeats Wach , eyes Anthony Joshua mega - fight.
Sources: yahoo.com, f4wonline.com, punchng.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 - Harry Kane at 41.0% with $126K traded.
Top volume remains in Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 - Harry Kane.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Harry Kane | 41.0% | $126K
Top volume & odds: Chris Gotterup | 57.5% | $85
Popular events
How renewable energy can benefit agriculture , environment - Blueprint Newspapers Limited. To block renewable energy projects , Texas Republicans have weaponized conservation concerns. Promoting sustainable resource use in the Global South.
Sources: blueprint.ng, sacurrent.com, manilatimes.net
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes at 3.6% with $5K traded.
Top volume remains in Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?) | 3.6% | $5K
How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
Top volume & odds: 0 | 72.0% | $0
Popular events
+$61,062
+$47,014
+$44,498
Kalshi via Jupiter
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