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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Will Alberta join the US?" Event volume totals $2M across outcomes. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Will Alberta join the US?)" at 2.6% and $0 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Fed Decision in July?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "No change" at 73.7% and $1M 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Will Alberta join the US? - Yes
$0
Highest implied
Which company has best AI model end of July? - Anthropic
98.5%
Top priced
Which company has best AI model end of July? - Anthropic
98.5%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? - Yes leads the desk at 11.0% with $276K traded.
Lead stories
59 India - Bound Vessels Transited Hormuz Since War
59 India - Bound Vessels Transited Hormuz Since War. Second vessel hit near Strait of Hormuz as shipping risks escalate amid US - Iran conflict. US assisted Hormuz transits drop to zero | Latest Market News.
Sources: rediff.com, moneycontrol.com, argusmedia.com
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Fed Decision in July? - No change leads the desk at 73.7% with $1M traded.
Lead stories
Kevin Warsh has homed in on three key phrases . How Fed watchers interpret them
Kevin Warsh has homed in on three key phrases . How Fed watchers interpret them. The Probability of a July Fed Rate Hike Has Tripled Over the Last Week -- Here Why. The Probability of a July Fed Rate Hike Has Tripled Over the Last Week -- Here Why.
A history of oil price swings this century
A history of oil price swings this century. Asian , European buyers in hot pursuit of US crude as wars escalate. Halliburton Company ( HAL ) Stock Forecasts.
B4
Lead market: Which company has best AI model end of July? - Anthropic leads the desk at 98.5% with $22K traded.
Lead stories
Alphabet beats expectations , cloud revenue nearly doubles
Alphabet beats expectations , cloud revenue nearly doubles.
Sources: thedailystar.net
AMD Launches Full Production AI Servers to Compete with Nvidia , ETTelecom
AMD Launches Full Production AI Servers to Compete with Nvidia , ETTelecom. US accuses China Moonshot of stealing from Anthropic Fable for latest AI model. US accuses China Moonshot of stealing from Anthropic Fable for latest AI model.
Sources: telecom.economictimes.indiatimes.com,
B5
Lead market: Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 leads the desk at 6.0% with $19K traded.
Lead stories
Charli XCX Taps David Cronenberg For a Collab That Explains Music , Fashion , Film
Charli XCX Taps David Cronenberg For a Collab That Explains Music , Fashion , Film. Jana Nayagan 1st Day Box Office Collection : Vijay Film Mints Over Rs 80 crore On Opening Day. Diaspora Insurance brings prizes to ZimFest 2026 – Nehanda Radio.
Sources: gq.com, oneindia.com, nehandaradio.com
B6
Lead market: Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 33.0% with $291K traded.
Lead stories
Bitcoin Hits $66 , 000 on Clarity Act Hopes But Bitwise Jeff Park Says the Market Is Getting Ahead of I. US Agencies Miss GENIUS Act Deadline for Final Stablecoin Rules. US Agencies Miss GENIUS Act Deadline , Extending Stablecoin Uncertainty.
Sources: benzinga.com, cointelegraph.com, zerohedge.com
B7
Lead market: Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 - Lionel Messi leads the desk at 3.9% with $140K traded.
Lead stories
Modric Signs AC Milan Contract Extension
Modric Signs AC Milan Contract Extension. Al Hilal Denies Excluding Karim Benzema from Domestic Squad. Rodri set to have surgery after winning the World Cup with Spain.
Sources: moroccoworldnews.com, moroccoworldnews.com, thebiglead.com
Trump jokes about tariffs for Mexico lettuce , Canada wildfire smoke
Trump jokes about tariffs for Mexico lettuce , Canada wildfire smoke. Like Anthony Joshua , Okoh Aiming to Win Boxing Gold for England – THISDAYLIVE. Fury defeats Wach , eyes Anthony Joshua mega - fight.
B8
Lead market: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 3.6% with $10K traded.
Lead stories
Hantavirus doesnt linger , requires close contact : Officials – KTBB News , Weather , Talk
Hantavirus doesnt linger , requires close contact : Officials – KTBB News , Weather , Talk.
Sources: ktbb.com
There are already more US measles cases this year than in all of 2025 - WSVN 7News | Miami News , Weather , Sports.
Sources: wsvn.com
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
US - Iran news LIVE : Iran claims 2 tankers exploded in Hormuz , US denies ; sirens go off in Bahrain.
Sources: hindustantimes.com
Trump just turbocharged Iran nuclear ambitions in a big way : report
Trump just turbocharged Iran nuclear ambitions in a big way : report. Trump says China , Russia assured him they are not arming Iran. Trump says China , Russia assured him they are not arming Iran.
Sources: rawstory.com, fox13now.com, wxyz.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? - Yes at 11.0% with $276K traded.
Top volume remains in Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? - Yes.
Lead event
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? - Yes
Trading at 11.0% with $276K in volume.
Event leaders
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?) | 11.0% | $276K
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?) | 31.0% | $274K
Top volume & odds: Mojtaba Khamenei | 72.4% | $246K
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?) | 11.0% | $106K
Popular events
14.3%
-0.1pp
$12M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $678M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $670M0%
Sources: rte.ie, businesstimes.com.sg, finance.yahoo.com
Colombia Ecopetrol says cyberattack stole data tied to 3 , 300 accounts
Colombia Ecopetrol says cyberattack stole data tied to 3 , 300 accounts. 24 Seven Ranks No . 2 Among Marketing / Creative Staffing Firms in the U . S ., Earns Spot on SIA 2026 Largest Staffi.... Colombia Ecopetrol says cyberattack stole data tied to 3 , 300 accounts.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, prnewswire.com, thestar.com.my
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Fed Decision in July? - No change at 73.7% with $1M traded.
Top volume remains in Fed Decision in July? - No change.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: No change | 73.7% | $1M
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in July 2026?
Top volume: ↑ $95 | 62.6% | $200K
Top odds: ↓ $90 | 83.0%
Top volume & odds: Largest Company end of July? | 72.0% | $178K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?) | 52.0% | $172K
Top volume: 25 bps decrease | 3.6% | $140K
Top odds: 25 bps increase | 54.0%
Popular events
CXMT is sparking fears of a cash drain before blockbuster IPO
CXMT is sparking fears of a cash drain before blockbuster IPO. Nvidia , Microsoft , Meta warn against overregulating open - weight models. Trump under pressure from all sides over Chinese AI surge.
Sources: cnbc.com, cnbc.com, freemalaysiatoday.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Which company has best AI model end of July? - Anthropic at 98.5% with $22K traded.
Top volume remains in Which company has best AI model end of July? - Anthropic.
Lead event
Which company has best AI model end of July? - Anthropic
Trading at 98.5% with $22K in volume.
Event leaders
Which company has best AI model end of July?
Top volume & odds: Anthropic | 98.5% | $22K
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
Top volume & odds: ↑$1.25T | 84.0% | $18K
Top volume & odds: December 31, 2026 | 18.0% | $3K
Who will close Warner Bros. acquisition?
Top volume & odds: Paramount | 67.0% | $2K
Popular events
Backrooms Worldwide Box Office : With 15 . 5X Gain Over Break - Even Makes Kane Parson Horror A Monster Success. The Top 10 Highest - Grossing Opening Weekends In Movie History. $2 Billion Fantasy Franchise Scores Big on Streaming.
Sources: koimoi.com, brobible.com, movieweb.com
7 Common Misquotes of Jesus We Should Avoid - Topical Studies
7 Common Misquotes of Jesus We Should Avoid - Topical Studies. Venezuela bishops insist earthquakes are not a punishment from God | News Headlines. Churches have shrunk the Gospel.
Sources: biblestudytools.com, catholicculture.org, christianpost.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 at 6.0% with $19K traded.
Top volume remains in Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31.
Lead event
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31
Trading at 6.0% with $19K in volume.
Event leaders
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 6.0% | $19K
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Top volume: Avengers: Doomsday | 13.0% | $7K
Top odds: Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 81.0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 2.0% | $6K
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
Top volume: 1 | 41.0% | $4K
Top odds: 2 | 56.0%
A Quantum Roadmap Would Push Bitcoin Much Higher. Quantum Roadmap Would Push Bitcoin Much Higher : Charles Edwards. Strategy Has Now Gone 4 Weeks Without Buying Bitcoin . Should Investors Be Concerned ?.
Sources: zerohedge.com, cointelegraph.com, fool.com
Another crypto company to sell its Bitcoin stash
Another crypto company to sell its Bitcoin stash. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong Thinks Bitcoin May Have Hit a Bottom . Here Why He Right. Bitcoin , Ethereum , XRP , Dogecoin Flat Despite Crypto Bill Getting Ethics Provisions : Analyst Highlights Level to....
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, finance.yahoo.com, finance.yahoo.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? - Yes at 33.0% with $291K traded.
Top volume remains in Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?) | 33.0% | $291K
Popular events
Sources: yahoo.com, thisdaylive.com, punchng.com
Lando Norris hits out at Formula One for putting money ahead of drivers
Lando Norris hits out at Formula One for putting money ahead of drivers. Aston Martin success under Adrian Newey is only a matter of time , says former F1 driver. F1 news : Max Verstappen hits back as rivals join F1 car criticism.
Sources: aol.co.uk, motorsport.com, speedcafe.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 - Lionel Messi at 3.9% with $140K traded.
Top volume remains in Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 - Lionel Messi.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Mercedes | 88.0% | $9K
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
Top volume & odds: Boston Red Sox | 54.0% | $4K
Popular events
One of India biggest sources of carbon emissions is hiding in plain sight. How renewable energy can benefit agriculture , environment - Blueprint Newspapers Limited. To block renewable energy projects , Texas Republicans have weaponized conservation concerns.
Sources: scroll.in, blueprint.ng, sacurrent.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes at 3.6% with $10K traded.
Top volume remains in Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?) | 3.6% | $10K
How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
Top volume & odds: 0 | 72.0% | $85
Popular events
+$61,062
+$47,014
+$44,498
Kalshi via Jupiter
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