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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Will Alberta join the US?" Event volume totals $2M across outcomes. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Will Alberta join the US?)" at 2.8% and $0 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Fed Decision in July?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "No change" at 85.1% and $2M 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑10k
$0
Highest implied
Which company has best AI model end of July? - Anthropic
98.6%
Top priced
Which company has best AI model end of July? - Anthropic
98.6%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: Presidential Election Winner 2028 - Gretchen Whitmer leads the desk at 1.2% with $1M traded.
Lead stories
Arizona Secretary of State Primary Election 2026 Live Results
Arizona Secretary of State Primary Election 2026 Live Results. De Gaulle returns to unite the French - at the cinema. Colombia : Gustavo Petro Sues to Stop de la Espriella Electoral Win.
Sources: nbcnews.com, thelocal.fr, breitbart.com
3 candidates remain in Maine Dem race to replace Graham Platner
3 candidates remain in Maine Dem race to replace Graham Platner. Jasmine Crockett appears to react to Talarico fierce defense of her. Maine Dems Sweat Troy Jackson Despite Dominant Victory.
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Fed Decision in July? - No change leads the desk at 85.1% with $2M traded.
Lead stories
Mortgage rates hold near 6 . 85 % ahead of Fed meeting
Mortgage rates hold near 6 . 85 % ahead of Fed meeting. JustMarkets Analyzes How Central Bank Policy Influences the Currency Market. Inflation Slowed in June , but These 4 Words From Kevin Warsh Suggest Interest Rate Hikes Are Still a Possibility Thi....
Sources: housingwire.com, manilatimes.net, finance.yahoo.com
US renews strikes on Iran as Trump threatens to attack Pickaxe Mountain
US renews strikes on Iran as Trump threatens to attack Pickaxe Mountain. Oil Prices Top $90 as Iran Attacks Tankers in Hormuz. The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz.
B4
Lead market: Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? - ↑$4.0T leads the desk at 8.4% with $52K traded.
Lead stories
Google Introduces Gemini 3 . 6 to Remind You It Has an AI Model , Too
Google Introduces Gemini 3 . 6 to Remind You It Has an AI Model , Too. Sam Altman v . Elon Musk ; Which AI Vision Actually Wins ?. What is China Moonshot AI and why is it roiling markets ?.
Sources: gizmodo.com, fool.com, businesstimes.com.sg
Robotics company sets up shop in Fremont for cutting - edge tech hub
Robotics company sets up shop in Fremont for cutting - edge tech hub.
B5
Lead market: Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - September 30 leads the desk at 2.4% with $51K traded.
Lead stories
Abbey Road to Honor Masayoshi Sukita With Lifetime Achievement Award
Abbey Road to Honor Masayoshi Sukita With Lifetime Achievement Award. Elon Musk tried to sink The Odyssey , audiences made it a blockbuster. Porn icon Cicciolina , 74 , fronts new Vivienne Westwood campaign.
Sources: rollingstone.com, ynetnews.com, ynetnews.com
Air1 Verse of the Day | Air1 Worship Music
Air1 Verse of the Day | Air1 Worship Music. Encountering Christ like Mary Magdalene did. How to Respond When People Say Jesus Had Brothers and Sisters.
Sources: ,
B6
Lead market: What price will Bitcoin hit in July? - ↑ 67,500 leads the desk at 75.0% with $137K traded.
Lead stories
Bitcoin and ethereum prices today , Tuesday , July 21 , 2026 : Crypto prices rise as investor risk appetite returns. Bitcoin ( BTC ) Price Prediction : Can Bitcoin Break $67K as Wyckoff Re - Accumulation Hints at an $85K Rally ?. 2 Cryptocurrencies Tom Lee Expects to Deliver Massive Gains.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, bravenewcoin.com, fool.com
B7
Lead market: Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 - Lionel Messi leads the desk at 4.9% with $122K traded.
Lead stories
Sir Alex Ferguson reveals meeting Kevin Keegan in pub just days after love it rant
Sir Alex Ferguson reveals meeting Kevin Keegan in pub just days after love it rant. Messi breaks silence after World Cup final defeat , congratulates Spain. Messi says Argentina defeat by Spain left immense pain.
Sources: aol.co.uk, theeagleonline.com.ng, samaa.tv
Amitabh Bachchan Clarifies Surgery Post , Says It Was About Argentina World Cup Loss
Amitabh Bachchan Clarifies Surgery Post , Says It Was About Argentina World Cup Loss. Amitabh Bachchan clarifies surgery post was misunderstood , says it referred to Argentina FIFA World Cup loss. I Am Fine : Amitabh Bachchan Clarifies Viral Surgery & ICU Blog , Says It Was About Lionel Messi , Not His Health.
B8
Lead market: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 3.3% with $12K traded.
Lead stories
Hantavirus doesnt linger , requires close contact : Officials – KTBB News , Weather , Talk
Hantavirus doesnt linger , requires close contact : Officials – KTBB News , Weather , Talk.
Sources: ktbb.com
Moderate rain causes flooding in parts of city | Surat News
Moderate rain causes flooding in parts of city | Surat News.
Sources: timesofindia.indiatimes.com
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
Sources: wmtw.com, thegrio.com, politicalwire.com
US - Iran news LIVE : Iran claims 2 tankers exploded in Hormuz , US denies ; sirens go off in Bahrain.
Sources: hindustantimes.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Presidential Election Winner 2028 - Gretchen Whitmer at 1.2% with $1M traded.
Top volume remains in Presidential Election Winner 2028 - Gretchen Whitmer.
Event leaders
Presidential Election Winner 2028
Top volume: Gretchen Whitmer | 1.2% | $1M
Top odds: JD Vance | 20.0%
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Top volume: Gretchen Whitmer | 1.8% | $656K
Top odds: Gavin Newsom | 19.9%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?) | 28.0% | $252K
Top volume & odds: Mojtaba Khamenei | 73.4% | $202K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?) | 14.0% | $187K
Popular events
14.4%
0.0pp
$12M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $678M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $668M0%
Sources: bbc.co.uk, punchng.com, arabnews.com
World still has substantial emergency oil reserves after record release , IEA says ( USO : NYSEARCA ). Brent crude passes US$92 a barrel , highest price since June. Gas Prices Jumped On Renewed Iran War Fighting.
Sources: seekingalpha.com, freemalaysiatoday.com, z100portland.iheart.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Fed Decision in July? - No change at 85.1% with $2M traded.
Top volume remains in Fed Decision in July? - No change.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: No change | 85.1% | $2M
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?) | 1.3% | $255K
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in July 2026?
Top volume & odds: ↑ $90 | 48.8% | $174K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?) | 54.0% | $85K
Top volume & odds: Largest Company end of July? | 75.0% | $80K
Popular events
Sources: mercurynews.com
Biotech IPO Gains Crush AI Listings With Standout 55 % Return
Biotech IPO Gains Crush AI Listings With Standout 55 % Return. Energy IPOs Are Booming Thanks to AI Insatiable Thirst for Power. China AI Companies Rush to Raise Funds and Close Gap With U . S ..
Sources: livemint.com, oilprice.com, livemint.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? - ↑$4.0T at 8.4% with $52K traded.
Top volume remains in Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? - ↑$4.0T.
Lead event
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? - ↑$4.0T
Trading at 8.4% with $52K in volume.
Event leaders
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
Top volume: ↑$4.0T | 8.4% | $52K
Top odds: ↑$1.25T | 84.0%
Which company has best AI model end of July?
Top volume & odds: Anthropic | 98.6% | $20K
Top volume & odds: December 31, 2026 | 18.0% | $1K
Popular events
The Odyssey Scores Best Monday Box Office Of 2026 With $18 . 6 Million
The Odyssey Scores Best Monday Box Office Of 2026 With $18 . 6 Million. Every Record Broken By The Odyssey So Far. Disney Divisive Live - Action Remake Conquers 86 - Year - Old Animated Classic at the Box Office.
Sources: forbes.com, screenrant.com, movieweb.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - September 30 at 2.4% with $51K traded.
Top volume remains in Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - September 30.
Lead event
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - September 30
Trading at 2.4% with $51K in volume.
Event leaders
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume: September 30 | 2.4% | $51K
Top odds: December 31 | 6.0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 2.0% | $16K
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Top volume: The Odyssey | 3.5% | $5K
Top odds: Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 75.0%
Bitcoin Hits $66 , 000 on Clarity Act Hopes But Bitwise Jeff Park Says the Market Is Getting Ahead of I. White House Agrees to Ethics Provisions in Market Structure Bill. CLARITY Act Could Help CFTC Deal with Prediction Markets : Lawyer.
Sources: benzinga.com, cointelegraph.com, cointelegraph.com
Here is how much Bitcoin you actually need to get rich like Warren Buffett or Elon Musk
Here is how much Bitcoin you actually need to get rich like Warren Buffett or Elon Musk. Bitcoin Suddenly Soars On Surprise Congress Price Game - Changer. Bitcoin dropped 2 % then rebounded after Trump said he a big crypto guy here are experts takes on buying the dip.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, forbes.com, finance.yahoo.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by What price will Bitcoin hit in July? - ↑ 67,500 at 75.0% with $137K traded.
Top volume remains in What price will Bitcoin hit in July? - ↑ 67,500.
Event leaders
What price will Bitcoin hit in July?
Top volume & odds: ↑ 67,500 | 75.0% | $137K
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?) | 47.0% | $97K
Popular events
Sources: deccanchronicle.com, aninews.in, freepressjournal.in
Oscar Piastri scolds F1 for being at mercy of computers behaving or misbehaving
Oscar Piastri scolds F1 for being at mercy of computers behaving or misbehaving. New Lego Technic Aston Martin F1 Car Is On Sale and Available Now. Hadjar secure at Red Bull amid Verstappen uncertainty.
Sources: crash.net, roadandtrack.com, grandprix.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 - Lionel Messi at 4.9% with $122K traded.
Top volume remains in Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 - Lionel Messi.
Event leaders
Top volume: Jake Knapp | 1.9% | $326
Top odds: Scottie Scheffler | 22.0%
Popular events
In 1854 , John Snow removed the handle from a single water pump on Broad Street in Soho and the cholera outbreak that....
Sources: terradaily.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes at 3.3% with $12K traded.
Top volume remains in Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?) | 3.3% | $12K
Popular events
+$61,062
+$47,014
+$44,440
Kalshi via Jupiter
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