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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?" Event volume totals $7M across outcomes, with $436 traded in the last 24 hours. Highest implied odds are for "3.75%" at 32.0%, with top volume on "3.5%" at 13.1% and $92 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Fed Decision in July?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "No change" at 92.7% and $719K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026? - ≥ 4.5%
$0
Highest implied
Which company has best AI model end of July? - Anthropic
98.9%
Top priced
Which company has best AI model end of July? - Anthropic
98.9%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? - Yes leads the desk at 27.0% with $761K traded.
Lead stories
US - Iran news LIVE : Iran claims 2 tankers exploded in Hormuz , US denies ; sirens go off in Bahrain. US - Iran War Live : US launches fresh strikes on Iran , begins blockade of Iranian ports. US - Iran news LIVE : Bahrain sounds air raid sirens ; Bushehr hit after Trump major attack warning.
Sources: hindustantimes.com, economictimes.indiatimes.com,
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Fed Decision in July? - No change leads the desk at 92.7% with $719K traded.
Lead stories
The Federal Reserve July Inflation Forecast Is In , and It Contains a Surprising Red Flag
The Federal Reserve July Inflation Forecast Is In , and It Contains a Surprising Red Flag. What comes next for the Fed regulatory independence ?. The Federal Reserve July Inflation Forecast Is In , and It Contains a Surprising Red Flag.
Sources: fool.com, nationalmortgagenews.com, finance.yahoo.com
B4
Lead market: Which company has best AI model end of July? - Anthropic leads the desk at 98.9% with $28K traded.
Lead stories
Robotics company sets up shop in Fremont for cutting - edge tech hub
Robotics company sets up shop in Fremont for cutting - edge tech hub.
Sources: mercurynews.com
Beyond rockets and satellites , SpaceX is quietly building an AI compute business that may become key to its eye - po.... China latest open - source AI model further narrows gap with US rivals. Chinese AI model takes US tech industry by surprise with abilities rivalling Claude and ChatGPT.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com,
B5
Lead market: Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 leads the desk at 6.0% with $56K traded.
Lead stories
5 Olivier Rousteing Celebrity Looks Before His Rabanne Era
5 Olivier Rousteing Celebrity Looks Before His Rabanne Era. Murlikant Petkar congratulates Kartik Aaryan on National Award win for Chandu Champion : Truly well deserved : Bollyw.... Charlotte Gainsbourg - Rest Artist.
Sources: madamenoire.com, bollywoodhungama.com, aceshowbiz.com
B6
Lead market: What price will Ethereum hit in 2026? - ↓ 1,250 leads the desk at 26.0% with $196K traded.
Lead stories
2 Cryptocurrencies Poised to Soar 3 , 000 % or More , According to 1 Top Wall Street Analyst
2 Cryptocurrencies Poised to Soar 3 , 000 % or More , According to 1 Top Wall Street Analyst. Bitcoin and ethereum prices today , Monday , July 20 , 2026 : Crypto prices mixed as second half 2026 outlooks conflict. 2 Cryptocurrencies Poised to Soar 3 , 000 % or More , According to 1 Top Wall Street Analyst.
Sources: fool.com, finance.yahoo.com, finance.yahoo.com
B7
Lead market: Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 - Harry Kane leads the desk at 41.5% with $460K traded.
Lead stories
FULL LIST : Messi , Yamal lead Ballon dOr race ahead of World Cup final
FULL LIST : Messi , Yamal lead Ballon dOr race ahead of World Cup final. Messi , Yamal in pole position for Ballon dOr 2026 after World. Ballon dOr organisers release update on World Cup impact on 2026 award race.
Sources: thenationonlineng.net, pmnewsnigeria.com, vanguardngr.com
Top Gear on U : full details and when it on
Top Gear on U : full details and when it on. Ferrari should have signed Gianpiero Lambiase for Lewis Hamilton , says F1 broadcaster. George Russell told low moments are really good thing for him after Belgian GP blow.
B8
Lead market: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 3.6% with $116K traded.
Lead stories
Hantavirus doesnt linger , requires close contact : Officials – KTBB News , Weather , Talk
Hantavirus doesnt linger , requires close contact : Officials – KTBB News , Weather , Talk.
Sources: ktbb.com
How to keep indoor air clean during wildfires
How to keep indoor air clean during wildfires. How to keep indoor air clean during wildfires. How to keep indoor air clean during wildfires.
Sources: wcvb.com, wtae.com, wbaltv.com
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
How America can win the Iran war | The Jerusalem Post
How America can win the Iran war | The Jerusalem Post. Trump : Iran still has missiles and drones. Trump warns Iran : They will pay many times over.
Sources: jpost.com, news.am, israelnationalnews.com
AOC , Socialism and the Democratic Crackup | 960 WELI | The Sean Hannity Show
AOC , Socialism and the Democratic Crackup | 960 WELI | The Sean Hannity Show. Can AI Think Like a Doctor ?. Wikipedia bias , hidden identities and the fight for truth : Traveler Tal joins ALL CAP.
Sources: 960weli.iheart.com, home.dartmouth.edu, ynetnews.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? - Yes at 27.0% with $761K traded.
Top volume remains in Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? - Yes.
Event leaders
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?) | 27.0% | $761K
Top volume & odds: Mojtaba Khamenei | 76.1% | $242K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?) | 15.0% | $157K
Popular events
14.4%
+0.3pp
$12M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $677M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $666M0%
Second vessel hit near Strait of Hormuz as shipping risks escalate amid US - Iran conflict. Iran Warns No Tanker Can Pass Hormuz Without Permit After Incidents Aboard Violator Ships. Iran claims attacks on US bases as commercial ships come under fire in Hormuz.
Sources: moneycontrol.com, globalsecurity.org, moneycontrol.com
Exclusive : Dont Buy Crude ETFs for the Refining Crunch Veteran Trader Warns of a Temporary Crude Surplu. Oil prices surge above $90 as two tankers explode in Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil prices havent climbed as much as some expected in five months of war - why ?.
Sources: benzinga.com, thenews.com.pk, seekingalpha.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Fed Decision in July? - No change at 92.7% with $719K traded.
Top volume remains in Fed Decision in July? - No change.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: No change | 92.7% | $719K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?) | 1.3% | $494K
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in July 2026?
Top volume & odds: ↑ $85 | 83.0% | $129K
Top volume & odds: Largest Company end of July? | 68.0% | $80K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?) | 55.0% | $74K
Popular events
The Sneaky Way SpaceX , Anthropic , and OpenAI Can Destroy the Trump Bull Market
The Sneaky Way SpaceX , Anthropic , and OpenAI Can Destroy the Trump Bull Market. What IPO really stands for – and whether you should be buying SpaceX and the AI giants. Institutional demand for CXMT $8 . 6 billion Shanghai IPO dented by chip stock selloff.
Sources: fool.com, nypost.com, moneycontrol.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Which company has best AI model end of July? - Anthropic at 98.9% with $28K traded.
Top volume remains in Which company has best AI model end of July? - Anthropic.
Lead event
Which company has best AI model end of July? - Anthropic
Trading at 98.9% with $28K in volume.
Event leaders
Which company has best AI model end of July?
Top volume & odds: Anthropic | 98.9% | $28K
Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
Top volume: Snapchat | 21.0% | $7K
Top odds: Brown-Forman | 93.0%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
Top volume: ↑$5.0T | 5.3% | $5K
Top odds: ↑$1.25T | 92.0%
Popular events
The Odyssey India Box Office Day 3 : Becomes Christopher Nolan 2nd Highest - Grossing Film , Beats The Dark Knight Rises. The Odyssey breaks incredible new record marking first in Nolan career. Box Office : Russo Brothers Eye The No . 1 Spot In India , Set To Overtake James Cameron With Avengers : Doomsday.
Sources: koimoi.com, mirror.co.uk, koimoi.com
WEATHER : Morning frost and fog patches expected across parts of SA
WEATHER : Morning frost and fog patches expected across parts of SA. WEATHER : Morning mist and light winds set to sweep SA TODAY. WEATHER : Partly cloudy skies expected across parts of South Africa.
Sources: thesouthafrican.com, thesouthafrican.com, thesouthafrican.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 at 6.0% with $56K traded.
Top volume remains in Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31.
Lead event
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31
Trading at 6.0% with $56K in volume.
Event leaders
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 6.0% | $56K
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Top volume: Toy Story 5 | 6.8% | $31K
Top odds: Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 74.0%
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
Top volume: 1 | 40.0% | $6K
Top odds: 2 | 59.0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 2.0% | $5K
Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Top volume: Dune: Messiah | 2.2% | $3K
Top odds: Avengers: Doomsday | 72.0%
Bitcoin Whales Accumulate But Mid - Size Holders Sell – Is This Potentially Constructive ?. Strategy Stock Rises After $263 . 5 Million Sale Announcement - Strategy ( NASDAQ : MSTR ). Crypto News Today : AlphaPepe Presale Nears Sell Out As Bitcoin Price Prediction Eyes $200 , 000.
Sources: benzinga.com, benzinga.com, portal.sina.com.hk
US Agencies Miss GENIUS Act Deadline , Extending Stablecoin Uncertainty
US Agencies Miss GENIUS Act Deadline , Extending Stablecoin Uncertainty. Democrats Added Certain Consumer Protection Rules to CLARITY : Coinbase Exec. White House Crypto Adviser Stays on as CLARITY Nears Senate Vote.
Sources: zerohedge.com, cointelegraph.com, cointelegraph.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by What price will Ethereum hit in 2026? - ↓ 1,250 at 26.0% with $196K traded.
Top volume remains in What price will Ethereum hit in 2026? - ↓ 1,250.
Event leaders
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?) | 40.0% | $113K
Popular events
Sources: tvguide.co.uk, motorsport.com, motorsport.com
Anthony Joshua : Topuria Gaethje Defeat Reminded Me The Fight Game Is Not A Joke
Anthony Joshua : Topuria Gaethje Defeat Reminded Me The Fight Game Is Not A Joke.
Sources: lowkickmma.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 - Harry Kane at 41.5% with $460K traded.
Top volume remains in Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 - Harry Kane.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Harry Kane | 41.5% | $460K
Who will Alexander Volkanovski fight next?
Top volume: Arnold Allen | 1.2% | $6K
Top odds: Movsar Evloev | 92.0%
Top volume: Alexander Volkanovski | 2.0% | $2K
Top odds: Merab Dvalishvili | 75.0%
Popular events
Oregon wildfires burning 400K+ acres , topping 2025 total
Oregon wildfires burning 400K+ acres , topping 2025 total.
Sources: kptv.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes at 3.6% with $116K traded.
Top volume remains in Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?) | 3.6% | $116K
Popular events
+$61,062
+$47,014
+$44,440
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
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