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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?" Event volume totals $3M across outcomes. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?)" at 13.0% and $0 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?)" at 9.0% and $584K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - Spain
$5M
Highest implied
Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban) - Starmer - UK PM
98.6%
Top priced
Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban) - Starmer - UK PM
98.6%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 - Ron DeSantis leads the desk at 2.3% with $304K traded.
Lead stories
Colorado Governor Race locked in : Victor Marx announces Republican nomination
Colorado Governor Race locked in : Victor Marx announces Republican nomination. Victor Marx succeeds in GOP primary for Colorado governor. Judge dismisses Tommy Tuberville residency lawsuit.
Sources: krdo.com, washingtonexaminer.com, yahoo.com
What does a by - election mean for Nigel Farage and Clacton ?
What does a by - election mean for Nigel Farage and Clacton ?. Not Nigel Farage : Who is Count Binface , contesting as MP for Clacton , united kingdom ? | Elections News. Nigel Farage courage and audacity could be about to disastrously backfire | Politics | News.
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B
B3
Lead market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? - Yes leads the desk at 9.0% with $584K traded.
Lead stories
Strait of Hormuz : What has happened since the US - Iran MoU on June 17 ?
Strait of Hormuz : What has happened since the US - Iran MoU on June 17 ?. Deepening Dark Trend Emerges On Hormuz As Ship Traffic Slows. 198 Indian seafarers aboard nine tankers stuck near Strait of Hormuz ; New Delhi weighs Iran outreach.
Sources: aljazeera.com, zerohedge.com, moneycontrol.com
B4
Lead market: Which company has best AI model end of July? - OpenAI leads the desk at 1.1% with $69K traded.
Lead stories
TCS flags no let - up in client caution after tepid Q1 | Company Business News
TCS flags no let - up in client caution after tepid Q1 | Company Business News.
Sources: livemint.com
Grok 4 . 5 : SpaceXAI launches Grok 4 . 5 model for coding , agentic tasks
Grok 4 . 5 : SpaceXAI launches Grok 4 . 5 model for coding , agentic tasks. SpaceXAI newest AI model Grok 4 . 5 dramatically undercuts Anthropic and OpenAI on price. Anthropic Sues Abnormal AI Over Alleged Brand Copying.
Sources: economictimes.indiatimes.com,
B5
Lead market: Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - September 30 leads the desk at 3.9% with $118K traded.
Lead stories
10 things to do in Los Angeles this summer , from cant - miss concerts to exclusive events
10 things to do in Los Angeles this summer , from cant - miss concerts to exclusive events. Michael On Verge Of Hitting $1 Billion At Worldwide Box Office. Davao Unveils Kadayawan 2026 Lineup of Events.
Sources: hola.com, forbes.com, sunstar.com.ph
AMERICA Prayer Vigil - July 9 , 2026 ( Prayer )
AMERICA Prayer Vigil - July 9 , 2026 ( Prayer ). Ahead of Christopher Nolan Mumbai visit , Film Heritage Foundation screens 70mm epic Ben - Hur. This 100 - year - old Irish prayer after Communion is beautiful.
B6
Lead market: What price will Bitcoin hit in July? - ↑ 65,000 leads the desk at 87.0% with $106K traded.
Lead stories
Bitcoin Most Prominent Holder Is Selling Some . Should You ?
Bitcoin Most Prominent Holder Is Selling Some . Should You ?. Donald Trump son bet big on Bitcoin , lost $600 million from family fortune. Trump family fortunes tumble by $600m as company faces deep downturn.
Sources: fool.com, economictimes.indiatimes.com, alternet.org
B7
Lead market: 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - Spain leads the desk at 21.1% with $5M traded.
Lead stories
Heavyweights , surprise packages set for blockbuster World Cup quarters
Heavyweights , surprise packages set for blockbuster World Cup quarters. World Cup Betting Promos ( July 2026 ): Best Promos for the World Cup. 10 FIFA World Cup winners who have attended a Formula 1 Grand Prix.
Sources: china.org.cn, rotowire.com, formula1.com
Football Daily - World Cup : A Taste Of Norway
Football Daily - World Cup : A Taste Of Norway. Erling Haaland vs . Harry Kane : A Heavyweight Showdown in the FIFA 2026 Quarterfinals. Alan Shearer names England goal - scorers in very specific Norway prediction.
B8
Lead market: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 2.1% with $37K traded.
Lead stories
Hantavirus doesnt linger , requires close contact : Officials – KTBB News , Weather , Talk
Hantavirus doesnt linger , requires close contact : Officials – KTBB News , Weather , Talk.
Sources: ktbb.com
Utah measles outbreak has slowed , but the fall season may see another surge
Utah measles outbreak has slowed , but the fall season may see another surge.
Sources: fortune.com
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
97.2%
$9
Sources: echo-news.co.uk, aljazeera.com, express.co.uk
Accord party in fresh legal trouble over 2027 presidential ticket
Accord party in fresh legal trouble over 2027 presidential ticket. 2027 : Opposition should unite under Peter Obi – Aisha Yesufu - Latest News In Nigeria , Nigeria News Today , Your On.... On This Day , July 9 : South Sudan declares independence.
Sources: pmnewsnigeria.com, nigerianeye.com, upi.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 - Ron DeSantis at 2.3% with $304K traded.
Top volume remains in Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 - Ron DeSantis.
Event leaders
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Top volume: Ron DeSantis | 2.3% | $304K
Top odds: J.D. Vance | 40.8%
Presidential Election Winner 2028
Top volume: Pete Buttigieg | 2.4% | $279K
Top odds: JD Vance | 19.9%
US announces blockade on Iran by...?
Top volume: July 31 | 24.0% | $209K
Top odds: December 31 | 43.0%
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?
Top volume: July 15 | 2.0% | $176K
Top odds: June 30, 2027 | 59.0%
Popular events
12.1%
—
$12M
—
Republican nominee
Event volume $671M
Presidential election
Event volume $654M
Supreme Court originalism is dead , dead , dead. Ringgit rises as Fed minutes weigh on US$. Ringgit rises as Fed minutes weigh on US dollar.
Sources: seattletimes.com, thestar.com.my, freemalaysiatoday.com
Canada interest rate to be announced by central bank
Canada interest rate to be announced by central bank. Bank of Canada holds rate steady at 2 . 25 % as it grapples with mixed economic signals. Weekly applications for jobless aid fall to 215 , 000 | The Arkansas Democrat - Gazette.
Sources: bnnbloomberg.ca, theglobeandmail.com, arkansasonline.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? - Yes at 9.0% with $584K traded.
Top volume remains in Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? - Yes.
Lead event
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? - Yes
Trading at 9.0% with $584K in volume.
Event leaders
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?) | 9.0% | $584K
Top volume & odds: No change | 78.0% | $378K
Top volume & odds: Largest Company end of July? | 92.0% | $112K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?) | 65.0% | $83K
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in July 2026?
Top volume: ↑ $85 | 14.0% | $60K
Top odds: ↓ $65 | 37.0%
Popular events
BofA extends loan to OpenAI ahead of IPO , Reuters source says
BofA extends loan to OpenAI ahead of IPO , Reuters source says. Private jet demand fuelled by artificial intelligence wealth. Sam Altman Called Any OpenAI IPO Valuation Below $1 Trillion a Nonstarter . Should Investors Prefer OpenAI or SpaceX ?.
Sources: bnnbloomberg.ca, bnnbloomberg.ca, fool.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Which company has best AI model end of July? - OpenAI at 1.1% with $69K traded.
Top volume remains in Which company has best AI model end of July? - OpenAI.
Event leaders
Which company has best AI model end of July?
Top volume: OpenAI | 1.1% | $69K
Top odds: Anthropic | 92.0%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
Top volume: ↑$2.0T | 47.0% | $14K
Top odds: ↑$1.25T | 91.0%
Top volume & odds: December 31, 2026 | 19.0% | $13K
Top volume & odds: Anthropic | 72.0% | $5K
Top volume & odds: No IPO by December 31, 2026 | 84.0% | $4K
Popular events
Obsession Officially Holds A Major 2026 Box Office Record
Obsession Officially Holds A Major 2026 Box Office Record. Michael Jackson movie overtakes huge hit to become the highest - grossing music biopic ever. I , Nobody Box Office : How Much Does It Need To Crack Prithviraj Sukumaran Top 5 Highest - Grossing Films In India ?.
Sources: screenrant.com, mirror.co.uk, koimoi.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - September 30 at 3.9% with $118K traded.
Top volume remains in Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - September 30.
Lead event
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - September 30
Trading at 3.9% with $118K in volume.
Event leaders
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume: September 30 | 3.9% | $118K
Top odds: December 31 | 8.0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 1.9% | $99K
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Top volume: Toy Story 5 | 7.6% | $3K
Top odds: Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 73.0%
Top volume: Doug Mason | 44.8% | $1K
Top odds: Other (Season Cancelled) | 69.0%
Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Top volume: Toy Story 5 | 1.1% | $641
Top odds: Avengers: Doomsday | 73.0%
Bitcoin , Ethereum , XRP Got Clobbered in Q2 : Here What Will Decide Their Fate in Q3. Stablecoin Leadership Continues To Be Driven By Compliance And Transparency. Decentralized Masters Reviews 2026 Reveal New Trends in DeFi Education.
Sources: benzinga.com, forbes.com, hawaiitelegraph.com
Ethereum ( ETH ) Price Prediction : ETH Holds Near $1 , 780 as Bulls Eye $1 , 860 – $1 , 950 , but $1 , 609 Remains K.... Current price of Ethereum for June 23 , 2026. Bitcoin and ethereum prices today , Tuesday , June 30 : Prices sliding , down about 40 % from last year.
Sources: bravenewcoin.com, fortune.com, finance.yahoo.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by What price will Bitcoin hit in July? - ↑ 65,000 at 87.0% with $106K traded.
Top volume remains in What price will Bitcoin hit in July? - ↑ 65,000.
Event leaders
What price will Bitcoin hit in July?
Top volume & odds: ↑ 65,000 | 87.0% | $106K
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?) | 41.0% | $23K
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?) | 6.5% | $10K
Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Top volume: $400M | 78.0% | $10K
Top odds: $50M | 92.5%
Popular events
Sources: bbc.co.uk, jagranjosh.com, metro.co.uk
theScore Bet Alberta Offering Pre Registration : Sign Up Early Today !
theScore Bet Alberta Offering Pre Registration : Sign Up Early Today !. BetMGM Alberta Now Taking Pre - Registration ! Sign Up with BetMGM Alberta Today. Surrey police seize suspected fake clothes , jerseys and jewelry.
Sources: rotowire.com, rotowire.com, castanetkamloops.net
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - Spain at 21.1% with $5M traded.
Top volume remains in 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - Spain.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Argentina | 58.0% | $431K
2026 FIFA World Cup: Nation to Reach Final
Top volume & odds: France | 59.0% | $239K
Popular events
Telenor Cuts Greenhouse Gas Emissions by 32 % as AI , Renewable Energy and 5G Drive Net - Zero Strategy. Call for Proposals : Japan Climate Fund for Agricultural Solar Projects. S . Korea , Mongolia sign MOU for energy transition , renewables.
Sources: greentechlead.com, fundsforngos.org, koreaherald.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes at 2.1% with $37K traded.
Top volume remains in Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?) | 2.1% | $37K
Popular events
+$47,014
+$32,003
+$22,084
Kalshi via Jupiter
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