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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Virginia Republican Senate Primary Winner". Event volume totals $2M across outcomes, with $19 traded in the last 24 hours. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Bert Mizusawa" at 78.0% and $10 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?)" at 17.0% and $202K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - Morocco
$7M
Highest implied
Next UK Prime Minister in 2026? - Andy Burnham
98.9%
Top priced
Next UK Prime Minister in 2026? - Andy Burnham
98.9%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: Putin out as President of Russia by end of 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 11.0% with $333K traded.
Lead stories
Kremlin says Russia stance on conditions for a Ukraine peace deal has not changed since 2024
Kremlin says Russia stance on conditions for a Ukraine peace deal has not changed since 2024. Putin says Russia will press on with front - line campaign. Putin Mocked After 15 Failed Attempts To Seize Particular Ukrainian Region.
Sources: moneycontrol.com, koreaherald.com, huffingtonpost.co.uk
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B
B3
Lead market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? - Yes leads the desk at 17.0% with $202K traded.
Lead stories
Iran post - war Hormuz fee plan gets Oman support despite US objection , says report
Iran post - war Hormuz fee plan gets Oman support despite US objection , says report. Strait of Hormuz shutdown only benefits US energy firms , says Russia Rosneft chief Sechin.
Sources: livemint.com, thenews.com.pk
Saw missiles for first time : For Paanch Saab , baptism by fire at sea near Hormuz | India News
Saw missiles for first time : For Paanch Saab , baptism by fire at sea near Hormuz | India News. McEntee to discuss stability in region during Gulf trip. US shoots down Iranian drones launched toward Strait of Hormuz after Trump said were straightening out a little unfin....
B4
Lead market: Which company has best AI model end of July? - Google leads the desk at 11.2% with $42K traded.
Lead stories
ChatGPT - Maker OpenAI Is Headed for a $1 Trillion IPO . The Biggest Winner Could Be Microsoft Stock .. Who should I vote for ? Voters turn to AI before casting their ballots. Google Tops $1 Billion in Africa Investments.
Sources: fool.com, seattletimes.com, africa.com
B5
Lead market: Elon Musk # tweets June 30 - July 7, 2026? - 60-79 leads the desk at 2.3% with $102K traded.
Lead stories
Happy Birthday Elon Musk ! 55 Things You Might Not Know About Tesla & SpaceX CEO - Tesla ( NASDAQ : TSLA ), Sp. Elon Musk Birthday Celebrations Feature Rocket and Moon Base Cakes. Elon Musk Shares Wish For Mankind On 55th Birthday , Mom Maye Says Son Celebrated With Rocket And Moon Bas.
Sources: benzinga.com, businessinsider.com, benzinga.com
B6
Lead market: What price will Bitcoin hit in July? - ↓ 57,500 leads the desk at 38.0% with $111K traded.
Lead stories
Bitcoin and ethereum prices today , Monday , June 15 , 2026 : Prices rising after U . S ., Iran agree to ceasefire deal. Bitcoin and ethereum prices today , Thursday , June 18 , 2026 : Prices sliding despite Iran peace deal. Bitcoin and ethereum prices today , Monday , June 22 , 2026 : Prices moving higher this morning.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, finance.yahoo.com, finance.yahoo.com
B7
Lead market: 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - Morocco leads the desk at 2.6% with $7M traded.
Lead stories
GK Quiz on FIFA World Cup. How to watch today World Cup matches : Sunday , June 28. How to watch today World Cup matches : Tuesday , June 30.
Sources: jagranjosh.com, fox5atlanta.com, fox5atlanta.com
This is the confirmed route to the 2026 World Cup final for England ( and the other 31 teams …)
This is the confirmed route to the 2026 World Cup final for England ( and the other 31 teams …). World Cup : England wins group with shutout of Panama. Inside the World Cup knockout stage bracket.
B8
Lead market: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 2.4% with $7K traded.
Lead stories
How prediction markets could forecast the future of science
How prediction markets could forecast the future of science.
Sources: scientificamerican.com
Catastrophic wind damage : NWS warns impacts of Super Typhoon Bavi will be felt throughout the Marianas today. Isolated severe storms and heavy rain to end the holiday weekend. Severe thunderstorm and flash flooding alerts for parts of CNY through late 4th of July.
Sources: guampdn.com,
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
98.2%
$1K
US - Iran war news LIVE : Trump threatens Iran will no longer exist ; air raid sirens in Bahrain , Kuwait.
Sources: hindustantimes.com
Saw missiles for first time : For Paanch Saab , baptism by fire at sea near Hormuz | India News
Saw missiles for first time : For Paanch Saab , baptism by fire at sea near Hormuz | India News. McEntee to discuss stability in region during Gulf trip. Iran post - war Hormuz fee plan gets Oman support despite US objection , says report.
Sources: indianexpress.com, rte.ie, livemint.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Putin out as President of Russia by end of 2026? - Yes at 11.0% with $333K traded.
Top volume remains in Putin out as President of Russia by end of 2026? - Yes.
Lead event
Putin out as President of Russia by end of 2026? - Yes
Trading at 11.0% with $333K in volume.
Event leaders
Putin out as President of Russia by end of 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Putin out as President of Russia by end of 2026?) | 11.0% | $333K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?) | 5.0% | $225K
Trump out as President before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Trump out as President before 2027?) | 8.0% | $123K
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?) | 4.9% | $119K
Popular events
9.8%
—
$12M
—
Republican nominee
Event volume $669M
Presidential election
Event volume $646M
Sources: indianexpress.com, rte.ie, nypost.com
US Fed meeting outcome today : 5 things investors should watch as policymakers weigh inflation risks
US Fed meeting outcome today : 5 things investors should watch as policymakers weigh inflation risks.
Sources: economictimes.indiatimes.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? - Yes at 17.0% with $202K traded.
Top volume remains in Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? - Yes.
Lead event
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? - Yes
Trading at 17.0% with $202K in volume.
Event leaders
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?) | 17.0% | $202K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?) | 79.0% | $138K
Top volume & odds: No change | 90.0% | $53K
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will GameStop acquire eBay?) | 13.0% | $24K
Top volume & odds: Yes (Fed rate hike in 2026?) | 48.0% | $15K
Popular events
Oppenheimer Predicts Nearly 41 % Upside For SPCX Ahead Of IPO - Tesla ( NASDAQ : TSLA ).
Sources: benzinga.com
Claude Fable 5 vs GPT 5 . 5 : Is this why the Trump admin banned one and not the other ?
Claude Fable 5 vs GPT 5 . 5 : Is this why the Trump admin banned one and not the other ?. GPT - 5 . 6 Launch Window Starts Monday : Alignment Fix and 1 . 5M Token Context Inside. OpenAI names Prabhjeet Singh India MD , launches GPT - 5 . 6 Sol with stronger cyber protections.
Sources: mashable.com, techtimes.com, livemint.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Which company has best AI model end of July? - Google at 11.2% with $42K traded.
Top volume remains in Which company has best AI model end of July? - Google.
Lead event
Which company has best AI model end of July? - Google
Trading at 11.2% with $42K in volume.
Event leaders
Which company has best AI model end of July?
Top volume: Google | 11.2% | $42K
Top odds: Anthropic | 88.0%
Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
Top volume: Ubisoft | 12.0% | $3K
Top odds: MGM Resorts | 79.0%
Who will close Warner Bros. acquisition?
Top volume & odds: Paramount | 86.0% | $2K
Popular events
BHU Admission 2026 : Minimum CUET Marks Needed for Ancient Indian History Culture & Archaeology.
Sources: jagranjosh.com
Huge West End musical confirms tour starting in Manchester with Sam Ryder starring
Huge West End musical confirms tour starting in Manchester with Sam Ryder starring. Guest commentary : Who is a Christian ?. This is one of the oldest depictions of the Sacred Heart.
Sources: manchestereveningnews.co.uk, idahopress.com, aleteia.org
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Elon Musk # tweets June 30 - July 7, 2026? - 60-79 at 2.3% with $102K traded.
Top volume remains in Elon Musk # tweets June 30 - July 7, 2026? - 60-79.
Event leaders
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume: September 30 | 4.2% | $73K
Top odds: December 31 | 6.0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 1.9% | $12K
Richest person on December 31, 2026?
Top volume & odds: Elon Musk | 96.4% | $4K
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Top volume: The Super Mario Galaxy Movie | 2.6% | $3K
Top odds: Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 77.0%
Strategy Just Announced a Major Shake - Up to Its Bitcoin Plan . Here What It Means for MSTR Stock .
Strategy Just Announced a Major Shake - Up to Its Bitcoin Plan . Here What It Means for MSTR Stock .. Nearly a million investors lost a total of $3 . 8 billion on Trump crypto coin.
Sources: fool.com, seattletimes.com
Senator Lummis Takes Fire at Jamie Dimon : Here a Hard Deadline
Senator Lummis Takes Fire at Jamie Dimon : Here a Hard Deadline. CLARITY Act Faces Senate Uncertainty as Odds Drop to 50 - 50. Bitcoin : The critical threshold of $60 , 000 and the law that could save it.
Sources: coinspeaker.com, econotimes.com, bankingnews.gr
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by What price will Bitcoin hit in July? - ↓ 57,500 at 38.0% with $111K traded.
Top volume remains in What price will Bitcoin hit in July? - ↓ 57,500.
Event leaders
What price will Bitcoin hit June 29-July 5?
Top volume & odds: ↑ 64,000 | 28.0% | $49K
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?) | 54.0% | $21K
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?) | 6.1% | $16K
Popular events
Sources: themag.co.uk, dailynews.com, kcra.com
How to Watch Belgium vs Iran Livestream Free from Anywhere
How to Watch Belgium vs Iran Livestream Free from Anywhere. How to Watch New Zealand vs Belgium Livestream Free from Anywhere. How to watch Belgium vs Egypt for FREE : Live stream details.
Sources: gizmodo.com, gizmodo.com, fourfourtwo.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - Morocco at 2.6% with $7M traded.
Top volume remains in 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - Morocco.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: England | 40.0% | $624K
Top volume & odds: Belgium | 38.0% | $331K
Top volume & odds: Brazil | 54.0% | $240K
2026 FIFA World Cup: Top Goalscorer
Top volume: Erling Haaland | 2.4% | $234K
Top odds: Kylian Mbappe | 53.0%
Popular events
Go Now evacuations ordered as Antelope Creek Fire burns in Wasco County
Go Now evacuations ordered as Antelope Creek Fire burns in Wasco County. Residents must become active participants in flood control – Lagos Com . for Environment , Wahab. Frequent lightning and gusty wind possible with afternoon storms.
Sources: katu.com, punchng.com, news4jax.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes at 2.4% with $7K traded.
Top volume remains in Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?) | 2.4% | $7K
Popular events
+$55,388
+$50,547
+$10,616
Kalshi via Jupiter
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