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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?" Event volume totals $7M across outcomes, with $8K traded in the last 24 hours. Highest implied odds are for "3.75%" at 31.0%, with top volume on "3.25%" at 1.7% and $2K 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Fed Decision in July?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "No change" at 80.0% and $635K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - Belgium
$9M
Highest implied
Next UK Prime Minister in 2026? - Andy Burnham
98.8%
Top priced
Next UK Prime Minister in 2026? - Andy Burnham
98.8%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: Putin out as President of Russia by end of 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 13.0% with $998K traded.
Lead stories
Trust in Putin Falls To Lowest Level Since Ukraine War Began
Trust in Putin Falls To Lowest Level Since Ukraine War Began. Putin : Ukrainian drone strikes are creating problem for Russia. Remember the right - wing families who moved to Russia ? Here where they are now ..
Sources: newsweek.com, albawaba.com, dailykos.com
Asia Holds Two - Thirds of the World Largest Forex Reserves Here Why That Matters for Global Power
Asia Holds Two - Thirds of the World Largest Forex Reserves Here Why That Matters for Global Power. Quiz : Can You Name Every Country That Starts With a Vowel ?.
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Fed Decision in July? - No change leads the desk at 80.0% with $635K traded.
Lead stories
US Fed meeting outcome today : 5 things investors should watch as policymakers weigh inflation risks
US Fed meeting outcome today : 5 things investors should watch as policymakers weigh inflation risks.
Sources: economictimes.indiatimes.com
Iran post - war Hormuz fee plan gets Oman support despite US objection , says report
Iran post - war Hormuz fee plan gets Oman support despite US objection , says report. US envoys in Qatar for meetings on Iran amid tensions after weekend attacks. US envoys arrive in Qatar for meetings on Iran amid tensions.
Sources:
B4
Lead market: Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? - SpaceX leads the desk at 84.0% with $83K traded.
Lead stories
The Sneaky Way SpaceX , Anthropic , and OpenAI Can Destroy the Trump Bull Market
The Sneaky Way SpaceX , Anthropic , and OpenAI Can Destroy the Trump Bull Market. Elon Musk loses trillionaire status as tech rout hammers Tesla , SpaceX. Report : OpenAI May Delay IPO Plans Until Next Year Due to Market Uncertainty.
Sources: fool.com, foxbusiness.com, breitbart.com
B5
Lead market: Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 leads the desk at 7.0% with $193K traded.
Lead stories
Inde Navarrette Turns Heads With Her Stunning Fashion Week Appearance
Inde Navarrette Turns Heads With Her Stunning Fashion Week Appearance. Lifting heavy weights ? Surgeon warns that incorrect weightlifting can trigger hernia ; shares 4 signs to watch out for. Not a fan of Greek yoghurt ? Gastroenterologist shares a tastier alternative to chia pudding : Check full recipe.
Sources: glamsham.com, hindustantimes.com, hindustantimes.com
B6
Lead market: What price will Ethereum hit in 2026? - ↓ 500 leads the desk at 6.4% with $76K traded.
Lead stories
Bitcoin and ethereum prices today , Tuesday , June 30 : Prices sliding , down about 40 % from last year. Bitcoin and ethereum prices today , Thursday , June 25 , 2026 : Bitcoin tumbles further below $60 , 000. 1 Company Now Holds Nearly 5 % of All Ethereum . That An Obvious Sell Signal.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, finance.yahoo.com, fool.com
B7
Lead market: 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - Belgium leads the desk at 1.5% with $9M traded.
Lead stories
Mexico vs Ecuador FIFA World Cup 2026 Round of 32 : India Time , Live Streaming , Key Players , Predicted Lineups and.... Canada World Cup dreams are still alive , and St . John fans are loving it. How To Listen to the USMNT Round of 32 Match Live.
Sources: economictimes.indiatimes.com, cbc.ca, wonw1280.iheart.com
B8
Lead market: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 3.2% with $178K traded.
Lead stories
Entrepreneurship for a greener future : Tackling environmental challenges and sustainability
Entrepreneurship for a greener future : Tackling environmental challenges and sustainability. Entrepreneurship for a greener future : Tackling environmental challenges and sustainability. Sonoco 2025 Sustainability Report : Renewable Energy , Net Zero Strategy , Emissions Reduction and Circular Economy P....
Sources: ft.lk, ft.lk, greentechlead.com
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
96.9%
$2K
Sources: jagranjosh.com, mentalfloss.com
Taiwan President urges China to stop military expansion in South and East China Seas , Taiwan Strait
Taiwan President urges China to stop military expansion in South and East China Seas , Taiwan Strait. Taiwan Coast Guard warns off Chinese research vessel from its restricted waters. Taiwan Lai says defending democracy is not a provocation against China.
Sources: prokerala.com, prokerala.com, economictimes.indiatimes.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Putin out as President of Russia by end of 2026? - Yes at 13.0% with $998K traded.
Top volume remains in Putin out as President of Russia by end of 2026? - Yes.
Lead event
Putin out as President of Russia by end of 2026? - Yes
Trading at 13.0% with $998K in volume.
Event leaders
Putin out as President of Russia by end of 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Putin out as President of Russia by end of 2026?) | 13.0% | $998K
Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?
Top volume & odds: Lebanon | 2.7% | $411K
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?) | 3.7% | $405K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?) | 14.0% | $351K
Popular events
10.6%
+0.3pp
$12M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $667M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $643M0%
IMO : Iran and Oman Begin Coordinated Evacuation of Stranded Vessels Through Strait of Hormuz
IMO : Iran and Oman Begin Coordinated Evacuation of Stranded Vessels Through Strait of Hormuz. US envoys arrive in Qatar for meetings on Iran amid tensions. Shell : Global LNG Demand to Surge 65 % by 2050.
Sources: shtfplan.com, pilotonline.com, oilprice.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Fed Decision in July? - No change at 80.0% with $635K traded.
Top volume remains in Fed Decision in July? - No change.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: No change | 80.0% | $635K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?) | 30.0% | $241K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?) | 83.0% | $116K
Top volume & odds: Yes (Fed rate hike in 2026?) | 55.0% | $72K
Largest Company end of December 2026?
Top volume & odds: Largest Company end of December 2026? | 66.0% | $26K
Popular events
OpenAI introduces GPT - 5 . 6 to challenge Claude Mythos 5. New Chinese AI model GLM - 5 . 2 matches Anthropic Mythos in bug - finding tasks : Report. SpaceX Puts Top Starship and Starlink Engineers to Work on Grok.
Sources: siliconangle.com, moneycontrol.com, businessinsider.com
Elon Musk says SpaceX is putting top Starship and Starlink engineers to work on Grok
Elon Musk says SpaceX is putting top Starship and Starlink engineers to work on Grok. Grok 3 vs ChatGPT : Which One Should You Pick & Why ?. Elon Musk leaks Grok 4 . 5 launch inside Tesla and SpaceX.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, sify.com, news.az
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? - SpaceX at 84.0% with $83K traded.
Top volume remains in Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? - SpaceX.
Event leaders
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
Top volume & odds: SpaceX | 84.0% | $83K
Which company has best AI model end of July?
Top volume: OpenAI | 2.4% | $44K
Top odds: Anthropic | 88.0%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
Top volume: ↑$1.75T | 47.0% | $9K
Top odds: ↑$1.25T | 92.0%
Popular events
Huge West End musical confirms tour starting in Manchester with Sam Ryder starring. Guest commentary : Who is a Christian ?. This is one of the oldest depictions of the Sacred Heart.
Sources: manchestereveningnews.co.uk, idahopress.com, aleteia.org
Cocktail 2 Worldwide Box Office Day 10 : Shahid Kapoor Delivers 3rd Highest Grossing Rom - Com Post - COVID. Jaafar Jackson Michael BEATS Christopher Nolan Oppenheimer to become highest - grossing biopic of all time. Michael Jackson biopic Michael becomes highest - grossing biopic ever with $977 Million , overtakes Oppenheimer.
Sources: koimoi.com, timesofindia.indiatimes.com, moneycontrol.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 at 7.0% with $193K traded.
Top volume remains in Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31.
Lead event
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31
Trading at 7.0% with $193K in volume.
Event leaders
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 7.0% | $193K
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 1.9% | $24K
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Top volume: The Super Mario Galaxy Movie | 3.7% | $12K
Top odds: Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 75.0%
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
Top volume & odds: 2 | 66.0% | $3K
Top volume & odds: Bad Bunny | 85.0% | $2K
Bitcoin Holders to Get Free Coins Airdropped From Summer Fork Attempts. Bitcoin Price Tops $59 , 152 . 21 on Major Exchanges ( BTC ). Best Crypto Casinos 2026 : Top Bitcoin & Crypto Sites Ranked.
Sources: gizmodo.com, themarketsdaily.com, electroiq.com
Will Bitcoin Price Recover in July ?
Will Bitcoin Price Recover in July ?. Should You Buy Bitcoin While It Under $70 , 000 ? The Answer Might Surprise You .. Bitcoin Price In Rare Historical Value Zone After $58K Sell - Off : Data.
Sources: cointelegraph.com, fool.com, cointelegraph.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by What price will Ethereum hit in 2026? - ↓ 500 at 6.4% with $76K traded.
Top volume remains in What price will Ethereum hit in 2026? - ↓ 500.
Event leaders
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?) | 7.0% | $63K
Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Top volume: $400M | 75.0% | $9K
Top odds: $50M | 94.2%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?) | 40.0% | $9K
Popular events
United States vs Bosnia and Herzegovina Predictions , Picks & Odds. How To Listen to the USMNT Round of 32 Match Live. How To Listen to the USMNT Round of 32 Match Live.
Sources: toffeeweb.com, foxsports1070.iheart.com, wjno.iheart.com
World Cup : Cape Verde to beat Argentina 1 - 0 in knockouts , predicts president
World Cup : Cape Verde to beat Argentina 1 - 0 in knockouts , predicts president. Cape Verde are smallest nation to reach World Cup knockouts , is Messi path to final opening up ?. Get the cheapest tickets for Argentina Cape Verde World Cup match in Miami.
Sources: bbc.co.uk, nytimes.com, nypost.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - Belgium at 1.5% with $9M traded.
Top volume remains in 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - Belgium.
Event leaders
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina
Top volume & odds: United States | 89.0% | $407K
Top volume & odds: Portugal | 55.5% | $179K
2026 FIFA World Cup: Top Goalscorer
Top volume: Ousmane Dembele | 3.7% | $164K
Top odds: Lionel Messi | 44.4%
Popular events
Atiku sympathises with Lagos residents over devastating floods. Atiku Sympathises With Lagos Residents Over Flooding.
Sources: dailypost.ng, leadership.ng
Utah measles outbreak has slowed , but the fall season may see another surge
Utah measles outbreak has slowed , but the fall season may see another surge.
Sources: fortune.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes at 3.2% with $178K traded.
Top volume remains in Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?) | 3.2% | $178K
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
Top volume & odds: ↑3k | 79.0% | $783
Popular events
+$11,559
+$7,709
+$4,123
Kalshi via Jupiter
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