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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028". Event volume totals $666M across outcomes, with $125K traded in the last 24 hours. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "J.D. Vance" at 41.6% and $37K 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Fed Decision in July?" Highest implied odds are for "No change" at 80.0%, with top volume on "25 bps decrease" at 1.2% and $259K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Markets at a glance
Most traded
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - Morocco
$17M
Highest implied
Next UK Prime Minister in 2026? - Andy Burnham
98.3%
Top priced
Next UK Prime Minister in 2026? - Andy Burnham
98.3%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: Putin out as President of Russia by end of 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 14.0% with $890K traded.
Lead stories
Putin makes rare admission of fuel shortages caused by Ukrainian strikes
Putin makes rare admission of fuel shortages caused by Ukrainian strikes. Trust in Putin Falls To Lowest Level Since Ukraine War Began. Putin : Ukrainian drone strikes are creating problem for Russia.
Sources: bbc.co.uk, newsweek.com, albawaba.com
Election Guide : Virginia primaries set stage for mid - term congressional showdown
Election Guide : Virginia primaries set stage for mid - term congressional showdown. Texas Dems chant were all going to Hell in support of Talarico. Jawando , Wells set for Montgomery County executive race in November.
Sources:
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Fed Decision in July? - 25 bps decrease leads the desk at 1.2% with $259K traded.
Lead stories
Trump is losing his fight with the Fed
Trump is losing his fight with the Fed. US Supreme Court says Fed Governor Cook can keep her job for now. US Supreme Court says Fed Governor can keep her job.
Sources: us.cnn.com, yahoo.com, canberratimes.com.au
On the etymology of strait and the Strait of Hormuz – The Forward
On the etymology of strait and the Strait of Hormuz – The Forward. Iran rejects French idea for global effort to demine Strait of Hormuz. Iran says held first meeting with Oman on managing Hormuz.
Sources:
B4
Lead market: Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…? - July 1 leads the desk at 94.1% with $175K traded.
Lead stories
Anthropic wants Claude to be your new Slack coworker
Anthropic wants Claude to be your new Slack coworker. US Allows Anthropic to Restore Claude Mythos 5 Access. Anthropic restores Claude Mythos 5 for select users : Full story in 5 points.
Sources: thestar.com.my, propakistani.pk, digit.in
B5
Lead market: Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes leads the desk at 1.9% with $20K traded.
Lead stories
Is Jesus going to reign for 1 , 000 years or not ?
Is Jesus going to reign for 1 , 000 years or not ?. Tarot card reader deletes online content after finding Jesus. AMERICA Prayer Vigil ( June 30 , 2026 ) * Prayer *.
Sources: christianpost.com, christianpost.com, freerepublic.com
Daree or The Cave by Bertram Nihal : Has it created a new genre to take Sinhala cinema to the world ?. The Hollywood Reporter Wins 16 First - Place SoCal Journalism Awards. Inde Navarrette Turns Heads With Her Stunning Fashion Week Appearance.
B6
Lead market: What price will Bitcoin hit in June? - ↓ 57,500 leads the desk at 24.0% with $652K traded.
Lead stories
Bitcoin and ethereum prices today , Tuesday , June 30 : Prices sliding , down about 40 % from last year. 1 Top Cryptocurrency to Buy Before It Soars as Much as 4 , 815 %, According to VanEck Matthew Sigel. 1 Top Cryptocurrency to Buy Before It Soars as Much as 4 , 815 %, According to VanEck Matthew Sigel.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, fool.com, finance.yahoo.com
B7
Lead market: 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - Morocco leads the desk at 3.2% with $17M traded.
Lead stories
World Cup 2026 : Brazil were 45 minutes from humiliation - but Crafty Carlo does it again
World Cup 2026 : Brazil were 45 minutes from humiliation - but Crafty Carlo does it again. Mexico vs Ecuador FIFA World Cup 2026 Round of 32 : India Time , Live Streaming , Key Players , Predicted Lineups and.... FIFA WC : Ancelotti calmness gave us belief , says Martinelli after Brazil comeback win.
Sources: bbc.co.uk, economictimes.indiatimes.com, prokerala.com
B8
Lead market: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 4.1% with $8K traded.
Lead stories
10 Simple Lifestyle Changes to Significantly Lower Your Carbon Footprint
10 Simple Lifestyle Changes to Significantly Lower Your Carbon Footprint. US CO2 Emissions Jump 3 . 2 % in 2025 as Coal Consumption Rebounds , Driving One - Third of Global Carbon Increase. Forest carbon credits may be underestimating climate risks , study finds.
Sources: emagazine.com, greentechlead.com, upr.org
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
98.0%
$11K
On the etymology of strait and the Strait of Hormuz – The Forward
On the etymology of strait and the Strait of Hormuz – The Forward. Iran rejects French idea for global effort to demine Strait of Hormuz. Iran says held first meeting with Oman on managing Hormuz.
Sources: forward.com, yahoo.com, freemalaysiatoday.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Putin out as President of Russia by end of 2026? - Yes at 14.0% with $890K traded.
Top volume remains in Putin out as President of Russia by end of 2026? - Yes.
Lead event
Putin out as President of Russia by end of 2026? - Yes
Trading at 14.0% with $890K in volume.
Event leaders
Putin out as President of Russia by end of 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Putin out as President of Russia by end of 2026?) | 14.0% | $890K
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Top volume: Graham Platner | 1.2% | $171K
Top odds: Gavin Newsom | 20.6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?) | 15.0% | $132K
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 14.0% | $117K
10.3%
+1.0pp
$12M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $666M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $642M0%
What the Supreme Court ruling in the Cook case means for Federal Reserve independence | News , Sports , Jobs. What the Supreme Court ruling in the Cook case means for Federal Reserve independence. Supreme Court upholds Fed independence , limits presidential power.
Sources: heraldextra.com, therecord.com, nydailynews.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Fed Decision in July? - 25 bps decrease at 1.2% with $259K traded.
Top volume remains in Fed Decision in July? - 25 bps decrease.
Event leaders
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?) | 31.0% | $149K
Top volume & odds: Yes (Fed rate hike in 2026?) | 55.0% | $128K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?) | 84.0% | $17K
Largest Company end of December 2026?
Top volume: SpaceX | 2.5% | $10K
Top odds: Largest Company end of December 2026? | 66.0%
Popular events
OpenAI limits GPT - 5 . 6 rollout after government request , says restrictions shouldnt be the norm. New Google Framework Dubs AI Agents as Potential Insider Threats. Gemini 3 . 5 Pro Cleared for July Launch as Fable 5 Nears Return , GPT - 5 . 6 Stays Locked.
Sources: businessghana.com, tech.co, techtimes.com
As $2 . 3 trillion wiped out from Microsoft , Nvidia , Alphabet , Apple , Meta , Tesla and Amazon ; Tesla Bull Dan Iv.... Volvo CEO to EU : Europe would be the only loser if cuts tie with Google , Microsoft , Amazon and Meta ; as we will b.... US Stock Market Is Out of Whack , 2 Reasons : Mohamed El - Erian.
Sources: timesofindia.indiatimes.com, timesofindia.indiatimes.com, businessinsider.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…? - July 1 at 94.1% with $175K traded.
Top volume remains in Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…? - July 1.
Lead event
Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…? - July 1
Trading at 94.1% with $175K in volume.
Event leaders
Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…?
Top volume: July 1 | 94.1% | $175K
Top odds: July 2 | 98.0%
Which company has best AI model end of July?
Top volume: OpenAI | 3.1% | $12K
Top odds: Anthropic | 84.0%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
Top volume: ↑$1.5T | 74.0% | $9K
Top odds: ↑$1.1T | 97.5%
Popular events
Sources: ft.lk, hollywoodreporter.com, glamsham.com
Michael Jackson biopic Michael becomes highest - grossing biopic ever with $977 Million , overtakes Oppenheimer. Michael Is Now the Highest - Grossing Biopic of All Time. Super Mario Galaxy Movie Sets Peacock Release Date : How to Watch.
Sources: moneycontrol.com, rollingstoneindia.com, variety.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes at 1.9% with $20K traded.
Top volume remains in Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes.
Event leaders
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 1.9% | $20K
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume: September 30 | 4.4% | $18K
Top odds: December 31 | 9.0%
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Top volume: Avengers: Doomsday | 13.0% | $5K
Top odds: Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 74.0%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by...?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 5.0% | $4K
Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Top volume: Toy Story 5 | 4.7% | $3K
Top odds: Avengers: Doomsday | 71.0%
Is Ethereum Golden Goose Finally Cooked ?. Sharplink Bought 10 , 000 ETH , 2 Million SBET : What Going On ?. Is Ethereum Golden Goose Finally Cooked ?.
Sources: fool.com, benzinga.com, finance.yahoo.com
Best Crypto Casinos 2026 : Top Bitcoin & Crypto Sites Ranked
Best Crypto Casinos 2026 : Top Bitcoin & Crypto Sites Ranked.
Sources: electroiq.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by What price will Bitcoin hit in June? - ↓ 57,500 at 24.0% with $652K traded.
Top volume remains in What price will Bitcoin hit in June? - ↓ 57,500.
Event leaders
What price will Bitcoin hit in June?
Top volume & odds: ↓ 57,500 | 24.0% | $652K
What price will Ethereum hit in June?
Top volume & odds: ↓ 1,500 | 3.2% | $170K
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?) | 8.4% | $81K
Popular events
Mexico look to extend fine run against Ecuador | The Peninsula Qatar.
Sources: thepeninsulaqatar.com
A champion and a competitor : Lewandowski signs for MLS side Chicago Fire
A champion and a competitor : Lewandowski signs for MLS side Chicago Fire. Viral Ghana mystic predicts Cabo Verde to upset Messi in Miami World Cup game. Three Lions brace for DR Congo challenge | The Shillong Times.
Sources: the42.ie, miaminewtimes.com, theshillongtimes.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - Morocco at 3.2% with $17M traded.
Top volume remains in 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - Morocco.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Mexico | 41.0% | $3M
2026 FIFA World Cup: Top Goalscorer
Top volume: Erling Haaland | 4.0% | $243K
Top odds: Lionel Messi | 46.3%
World Cup: Nation To Reach Quarterfinals
Top volume & odds: France | 91.0% | $113K
Popular events
Vol $3M
Utah measles outbreak has slowed , but the fall season may see another surge.
Sources: fortune.com
Tetra Pak Advances Food System Resilience as It Cuts GHG Emissions Across the Value Chain by Over a Third. Tetra Pak Advances Food System Resilience as It Cuts GHG Emissions Across the Value Chain by Over a Third. Tetra Pak Advances Food System Resilience as It Cuts GHG Emissions Across the Value Chain by Over a Third.
Sources: vietnamtribune.com, middleeaststar.com, russiaherald.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes at 4.1% with $8K traded.
Top volume remains in Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?) | 4.1% | $8K
Popular events
#1 Awaiting data
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#3 Awaiting data
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Kalshi via Jupiter
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