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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028". Event volume totals $1B across outcomes, with $1M traded in the last 24 hours. Highest implied odds are for "Gavin Newsom" at 20.5%, with top volume on "Jon Stewart" at 2.6% and $409K 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Fed Decision in July?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "No change" at 81.0% and $588K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 - James Talarico
$0
Highest implied
Next UK Prime Minister in 2026? - Andy Burnham
98.0%
Top priced
Next UK Prime Minister in 2026? - Andy Burnham
98.0%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: Putin out as President of Russia by end of 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 13.0% with $959K traded.
Lead stories
Vladimir Putin : Putin Acknowledges Fuel Shortages Amid Ukrainian Drone Strikes on Russian Energy Infrastructure | Wo.... Putin says Russia will press on with front - line campaign. Kremlin says Russia stance on conditions for a Ukraine peace deal has not changed since 2024.
Sources: timesofindia.indiatimes.com, koreaherald.com, moneycontrol.com
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Fed Decision in July? - No change leads the desk at 81.0% with $588K traded.
Lead stories
What the Supreme Court ruling in the Cook case means for Federal Reserve independence | News , Sports , Jobs. Supreme Court upholds Fed independence , limits presidential power. Supreme Court upholds Fed independence , limits presidential power.
Sources: heraldextra.com, orlandosentinel.com, sandiegouniontribune.com
B4
Lead market: Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…? - August 31 leads the desk at 93.4% with $40K traded.
Lead stories
Claude Fable 5 vs GPT 5 . 5 : Is this why the Trump admin banned one and not the other ?
Claude Fable 5 vs GPT 5 . 5 : Is this why the Trump admin banned one and not the other ?. Anthropic Launches Claude Fable 5 For General Public : All You Need To Know About The Mythos - Clas AI Model. Anthropic Claude Fable 5 is here : The Mythos - class AI model anyone can now use and what makes it different.
Sources: mashable.com, freepressjournal.in, timesofindia.indiatimes.com
B5
Lead market: Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes leads the desk at 1.9% with $59K traded.
Lead stories
Deadline. Preaching the Gospel not politics at America 250th anniversary. [ Catholic Caucus Devotional ] My Catholic Life ! Catholic Daily Reflections : The Church Shall Prevail.
Sources: deadline.com, americamagazine.org, freerepublic.com
2026 BET Awards : Full List of Winners , Cardi B , Kendrick Lam
2026 BET Awards : Full List of Winners , Cardi B , Kendrick Lam. The Hollywood Reporter Wins 16 First - Place SoCal Journalism Awards. The Devil Wears Prada 2 Set to Stream on Disney+ and Hulu July 29 With Major New Viewing Update.
Sources: punchng.com,
B6
Lead market: What price will Bitcoin hit in June? - ↓ 57,500 leads the desk at 11.4% with $580K traded.
Lead stories
Michael Saylor Destroyed Shareholder Value Instead Of Creating It , Says Peter Schiff : Bitcoin Is Overvalued. SpaceX Just Lost $600 Billion in Value in Less Than Two Weeks . That Why Im Buying Bitcoin .. CryptoQuant Flags Rising Bitcoin Whale Share On Gate As BTC Holds Below $60 , 000.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, fool.com, newsbtc.com
B7
Lead market: 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - Mexico leads the desk at 1.3% with $5M traded.
Lead stories
Netherlands , Morocco meet in World Cup knockout showdown
Netherlands , Morocco meet in World Cup knockout showdown. World Cup Round of 32 heats up with 3 star - studded games Monday – NBC4 Washington. World Cup Round of 32 heats up with 3 star - studded games Monday – NBC Los Angeles.
Sources: ocregister.com, nbcwashington.com, nbclosangeles.com
How to watch Netherlands vs Morocco for FREE : Live stream details for World Cup 2026 round of 32
How to watch Netherlands vs Morocco for FREE : Live stream details for World Cup 2026 round of 32. Netherlands vs Morocco prediction for round of 32 tie in Monterrey. Netherlands vs . Morocco Free Livestream : How to Watch Today World Cup Game.
B8
Lead market: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 4.2% with $30K traded.
Lead stories
Deep Sky delivers continent first direct air capture carbon credits
Deep Sky delivers continent first direct air capture carbon credits. Sonoco 2025 Sustainability Report : Renewable Energy , Net Zero Strategy , Emissions Reduction and Circular Economy P.... Maple Leaf Foods 2025 Sustainability Report : Carbon Neutrality , Net Zero Goals , Regenerative Agriculture and Renew....
Sources: bnnbloomberg.ca, greentechlead.com, greentechlead.com
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
97.5%
$781
This is kind of a whole new ballgame : Haaland announces own lieutenant governor search process. Deb Haaland wants to interview candidates for lieutenant governor. Graham Platner - Lead , Follow or Get the ef out of the way ! Or , are folks only the worst thing they ever did ?.
Sources: kob.com, kob.com, dailykos.com
Despite its best efforts , Iran wont be able to toll the Strait of Hormuz . Here why
Despite its best efforts , Iran wont be able to toll the Strait of Hormuz . Here why. Fuelcast : Iran continues to control the Strait. What is Article 5 of the US - Iran interim agreement ? How the Strait of Hormuz clause triggered fresh US - Iran strikes.
Sources: theconversation.com, abc.net.au, livemint.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Putin out as President of Russia by end of 2026? - Yes at 13.0% with $959K traded.
Top volume remains in Putin out as President of Russia by end of 2026? - Yes.
Lead event
Putin out as President of Russia by end of 2026? - Yes
Trading at 13.0% with $959K in volume.
Event leaders
Putin out as President of Russia by end of 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Putin out as President of Russia by end of 2026?) | 13.0% | $959K
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Top volume: Jon Stewart | 2.6% | $409K
Top odds: Gavin Newsom | 20.5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?) | 15.0% | $226K
Top volume & odds: Yes (Xi Jinping out before 2027?) | 6.4% | $154K
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
Top volume & odds: United Russia (ER) | 58.0% | $72K
Popular events
9.3%
-0.3pp
$12M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $666M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $641M0%
Despite its best efforts , Iran wont be able to toll the Strait of Hormuz . Here why. Fuelcast : Iran continues to control the Strait. What is Article 5 of the US - Iran interim agreement ? How the Strait of Hormuz clause triggered fresh US - Iran strikes.
Sources: theconversation.com, abc.net.au, livemint.com
Trump Highlights Significant Drop in Oil , Gas Prices
Trump Highlights Significant Drop in Oil , Gas Prices. Trump Confirms Iran Talks In Doha On Tuesday , Asks Americans To Report Retail Gas Price Abuse - Chevron (. Commodity Corner : Oil , gold decline as geopolitical risks ease ; dollar remains in focus.
Sources: theepochtimes.com, benzinga.com, moneycontrol.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Fed Decision in July? - No change at 81.0% with $588K traded.
Top volume remains in Fed Decision in July? - No change.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: No change | 81.0% | $588K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?) | 39.0% | $351K
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in June 2026?
Top volume & odds: ↓ $65 | 2.3% | $127K
Popular events
OpenAI introduces GPT - 5 . 6 to challenge Claude Mythos 5. Sakana AI Fugu : Japanese AI startup Sakana launches Fugu , claims it beats banned Anthropic Claude Fable 5 in coding.... New Chinese AI model GLM - 5 . 2 matches Anthropic Mythos in bug - finding tasks : Report.
Sources: siliconangle.com, moneycontrol.com, moneycontrol.com
SpaceX Puts Top Starship and Starlink Engineers to Work on Grok
SpaceX Puts Top Starship and Starlink Engineers to Work on Grok. SpaceX Is Quietly Becoming One of the Most Important Data Center Companies in AI . Here What That Means for Investors. Grok 3 vs ChatGPT : Which One Should You Pick & Why ?.
Sources: businessinsider.com, fool.com, sify.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…? - August 31 at 93.4% with $40K traded.
Top volume remains in Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…? - August 31.
Lead event
Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…? - August 31
Trading at 93.4% with $40K in volume.
Event leaders
Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…?
Top volume: August 31 | 93.4% | $40K
Top odds: December 31 | 96.6%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
Top volume: ↑$3.0T | 19.0% | $23K
Top odds: ↑$1.1T | 94.4%
Which company has best AI model end of July?
Top volume & odds: Anthropic | 84.0% | $19K
SpaceX Closing Market Cap End of IPO Month
Top volume: $1.5T-$2.0T | 4.7% | $18K
Top odds: $2.0T-$2.5T | 95.0%
Top 10 Highest Grossing Bollywood Actresses at Indian Box Office : Deepika Padukone rules at No . 1 , Katrina Kaif ,.... Backrooms North America Box Office : Becomes The All - Time 11th Highest Grossing Horror Film Domestically. Cocktail 2 Worldwide Box Office Day 10 : Shahid Kapoor Delivers 3rd Highest Grossing Rom - Com Post - COVID.
Sources: pinkvilla.com, koimoi.com, koimoi.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes at 1.9% with $59K traded.
Top volume remains in Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes.
Event leaders
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 1.9% | $59K
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 9.0% | $15K
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Top volume: Toy Story 5 | 5.7% | $8K
Top odds: Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 74.0%
Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Top volume: The Odyssey | 1.2% | $1K
Top odds: Avengers: Doomsday | 70.0%
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
Top volume: 4 | 4.3% | $498
Top odds: 2 | 67.0%
Current price of Ethereum for June 23 , 2026. Bitcoin and ethereum prices today , Wednesday , June 24 , 2026 : Opened at lowest levels in about two weeks. Bitcoin and ethereum prices today , Thursday , June 25 , 2026 : Bitcoin tumbles further below $60 , 000.
Sources: fortune.com, finance.yahoo.com, finance.yahoo.com
Reader Favorite Publishes Review of Political Thriller The Day Satoshi Returned by Taimour Alneimat | Press Releases. Bitcoin Holders to Get Free Coins Airdropped From Summer Fork Attempts. Bitcoin Price Tops $59 , 152 . 21 on Major Exchanges ( BTC ).
Sources: ktbs.com, gizmodo.com, themarketsdaily.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by What price will Bitcoin hit in June? - ↓ 57,500 at 11.4% with $580K traded.
Top volume remains in What price will Bitcoin hit in June? - ↓ 57,500.
Event leaders
What price will Bitcoin hit in June?
Top volume & odds: ↓ 57,500 | 11.4% | $580K
What price will Ethereum hit in June?
Top volume & odds: ↓ 1,500 | 10.0% | $103K
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?) | 8.2% | $28K
Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Top volume: $400M | 71.0% | $10K
Top odds: $50M | 94.5%
Popular events
Sources: fourfourtwo.com, fourfourtwo.com, pcmag.com
Philadelphia Union hosting Ivory Coast watch party on Tuesday
Philadelphia Union hosting Ivory Coast watch party on Tuesday. What to see at Parcours des Mondes 2026. Brazil Leave It LATE Martinelli Stoppage - Time Dagger Sinks Brave Japan 2 - 1.
Sources: phillytrib.com, apollo-magazine.com, latintimes.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - Mexico at 1.3% with $5M traded.
Top volume remains in 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - Mexico.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Netherlands | 41.0% | $899K
Top volume & odds: Norway | 46.0% | $603K
Top volume & odds: France | 78.0% | $492K
2026 FIFA World Cup: Top Goalscorer
Top volume: Vinicius Junior | 2.3% | $176K
Top odds: Lionel Messi | 52.5%
Popular events
Dow Sustainability Report 2025 : Net Zero 2050 Goal , Renewable Energy Growth and Emissions Cuts Drive ESG Progress. GE Vernova Sustainability Report 2025 : $11 bn Investment Accelerates Net Zero , Renewable Energy and Grid Modernization. Asia Symbol Sustainability Report 2025 : Net Zero 2060 Strategy , 51 . 78 MW Solar Capacity and RMB 50 Billion Green....
Sources: greentechlead.com, greentechlead.com, greentechlead.com
Upper Hunter to host Australia first greenhouse gas network | The Scone Advocate
Upper Hunter to host Australia first greenhouse gas network | The Scone Advocate. Upper Hunter to host Australia first greenhouse gas network | The Singleton Argus. UAE Business : Masdar breaks ground on 1 GW wind , storage project in Kazakhstan.
Sources: sconeadvocate.com.au, singletonargus.com.au, gdnonline.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes at 4.2% with $30K traded.
Top volume remains in Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?) | 4.2% | $30K
Popular events
+$201,666
+$196,494
+$49,172
Kalshi via Jupiter
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