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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?" Event volume totals $7M across outcomes, with $419 traded in the last 24 hours. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "3.75%" at 33.6% and $66 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?)" at 5.4% and $2M 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Markets at a glance
Most traded
$5M
Highest implied
Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On) - Anthropic
98.7%
Top priced
Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On) - Anthropic
98.7%
Volume leaders
$5M
31.0%
$5M
27.0%
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - Japan
$4M
1.7%
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: Putin out as President of Russia by end of 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 12.0% with $654K traded.
Lead stories
Putin , Lukashenko hold talks on Friday at tense point in Ukraine war
Putin , Lukashenko hold talks on Friday at tense point in Ukraine war. Putin , Lukashenko Hold Talks on Friday at Tense Point in Ukraine War. Sergei Ivanov , Russia ex - defense minister once seen as Putin likely successor , has died at 73 – Winnipeg Free Press.
Sources: moneycontrol.com, english.aawsat.com, winnipegfreepress.com
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? - Yes leads the desk at 5.4% with $2M traded.
Lead stories
Fears in Strait of Hormuz as tanker struck after Iran warned ships to turn back
Fears in Strait of Hormuz as tanker struck after Iran warned ships to turn back. Iran reportedly eyes Hormuz revenue role as US rejects toll plans. Iran reportedly eyes Hormuz revenue role as US rejects toll plans.
Sources: nypost.com, jpost.com, jpost.com
B4
Lead market: Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…? - July 1 leads the desk at 41.0% with $56K traded.
Lead stories
Fable 5 was too smart for its own good , so Anthropic had to kill it
Fable 5 was too smart for its own good , so Anthropic had to kill it. Anthropic wants Claude to be your new Slack coworker. Someone Is Suing the U . S . For Making Them Go Without Anthropic Fable 5 Model.
Sources: howtogeek.com, thestar.com.my, gizmodo.com
Like Anthropic , OpenAI may restrict GPT 5 . 6 access during initial rollout : Here is why
Like Anthropic , OpenAI may restrict GPT 5 . 6 access during initial rollout : Here is why. Chinese Open - Weight AI Model Raises Cybersecurity Worries Over Advanced Capabilities. Broadcom , Micron , AMD , and Other AI Chip Stocks Slumped on Friday . You Can Thank OpenAI and SpaceX ..
B5
Lead market: Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes leads the desk at 1.9% with $21K traded.
Lead stories
Holy unsatisfying – Winnipeg Free Press
Holy unsatisfying – Winnipeg Free Press. Stephen Max Larkin. AMERICA Prayer Vigil – 26 June 2026 [ Prayer ].
Sources: winnipegfreepress.com, stgeorgeutah.com, freerepublic.com
Balan : The Boy box office collection day 7 : Chidambaram film dips 2 %; Nears Rs 22 Cr worldwide
Balan : The Boy box office collection day 7 : Chidambaram film dips 2 %; Nears Rs 22 Cr worldwide. 50 things to do in Ireland for Summer 2026. When and where will The Devil Wears Prada 2 be streaming ?.
B6
Lead market: What price will Bitcoin hit in June? - ↓ 57,500 leads the desk at 36.2% with $268K traded.
Lead stories
Bitcoin Drops To $59K As A Massive Options Bet And A Hot Inflation Report Collide
Bitcoin Drops To $59K As A Massive Options Bet And A Hot Inflation Report Collide. Bitcoin Price Hovers Around $60K : Peter Schiff Blames Saylor. Strategy Shares Crash Below $100 as Bitcoin Sinks Towards $60K.
Sources: benzinga.com, coinspeaker.com, finance.yahoo.com
Investor who made millions from Bitcoin crash reveals next move
Investor who made millions from Bitcoin crash reveals next move. Bitcoin , Ethereum , XRP , Dogecoin Slump As Fed Favourite Inflation Barometer Hits 3 - Year High : Analyst W. Sharplink Buys ETH for First Time in 8 Months.
B7
Lead market: Cabo Verde leads the desk at 31.0% with $5M traded.
Lead stories
WORLD CUP DAILY , June 26 : Six matches today include New Zealand vs . Belgium in Vancouver , 8 p . m .. Cabo Verde seeks to extend World Cup fairytale. World Cup 2026 Cabo Verde Eye History Against Saudi Arabia.
Sources: kelownacapnews.com, china.org.cn, riotimesonline.com
2026 World Cup Group I : France clinches top spot as Erling Haaland sits for Norway
2026 World Cup Group I : France clinches top spot as Erling Haaland sits for Norway. 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 32 : How To Listen Live. 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 32 : How To Listen Live.
B8
Lead market: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 4.1% with $7K traded.
Lead stories
Colorado public health officials investigating hantavirus death not linked to cruise ship cluster – KTBB News , Weath....
Sources: ktbb.com
Utah measles outbreak has slowed , but the fall season may see another surge
Utah measles outbreak has slowed , but the fall season may see another surge.
Sources: fortune.com
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
97.8%
$1K
Fears in Strait of Hormuz as tanker struck after Iran warned ships to turn back. Iran reportedly eyes Hormuz revenue role as US rejects toll plans. Iran reportedly eyes Hormuz revenue role as US rejects toll plans.
Sources: nypost.com, jpost.com, jpost.com
Israel and Lebanon reach framework agreement
Israel and Lebanon reach framework agreement. Hezbollah chief demands Israel unconditional withdrawal from Lebanon. Peace deal signed between US - Israel - Lebanon | The Jerusalem Post.
Sources: bbc.co.uk, moneycontrol.com, jpost.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Putin out as President of Russia by end of 2026? - Yes at 12.0% with $654K traded.
Top volume remains in Putin out as President of Russia by end of 2026? - Yes.
Lead event
Putin out as President of Russia by end of 2026? - Yes
Trading at 12.0% with $654K in volume.
Event leaders
Putin out as President of Russia by end of 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Putin out as President of Russia by end of 2026?) | 12.0% | $654K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?) | 31.0% | $460K
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?
Top volume: June 30 | 1.4% | $285K
Top odds: July 31 | 12.0%
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30?
Top volume: 60+ | 47.0% | $191K
Top odds: 40+ | 95.0%
9.2%
-0.6pp
$13M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $665M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $640M0%
A . P . Farmer Association alleges exploitation of oil palm growers , seeks new oil fed plant at Pedavegi. Gold falls below $4 , 000 an ounce for the first time since November. Kevin Warsh believes banks are too transparent here what greater secrecy could mean for mortgages and investments.
Sources: thehindu.com, english.elpais.com, finance.yahoo.com
Iran IRGC warns against using highly dangerou Hormuz route : What to know - AL - MONITOR : The Middle Eastʼs leading.... Iran reasserts control over Strait of Hormuz after ship hit near Oman , warns Gulf states against backing US. Strait of Hormuz Evacuation Operation Halts After Cargo Ship Attack.
Sources: al-monitor.com, moneycontrol.com, world.kbs.co.kr
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? - Yes at 5.4% with $2M traded.
Top volume remains in Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? - Yes.
Lead event
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? - Yes
Trading at 5.4% with $2M in volume.
Event leaders
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?) | 5.4% | $2M
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?) | 47.0% | $655K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?) | 88.0% | $58K
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in June 2026?
Top volume & odds: ↓ $65 | 8.3% | $41K
Sources: digit.in, ibtimes.com, fool.com
Meet Micron , the chipmaker that just reported a 346 % sales surge and helped stop a global AI selloff. Robotics startup Sanctuary AI appoints former MDA exec as CEO.
Sources: fortune.com, betakit.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…? - July 1 at 41.0% with $56K traded.
Top volume remains in Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…? - July 1.
Lead event
Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…? - July 1
Trading at 41.0% with $56K in volume.
Event leaders
Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…?
Top volume: July 1 | 41.0% | $56K
Top odds: December 31 | 97.5%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
Top volume: ↑$1.25T | 90.0% | $38K
Top odds: ↑$1.1T | 96.7%
Which company has best AI model end of July?
Top volume: OpenAI | 5.2% | $31K
Top odds: Anthropic | 85.0%
Top volume & odds: December 31, 2026 | 22.0% | $10K
Sources: timesofindia.indiatimes.com, rte.ie, mirror.co.uk
WEATHER : Bitter cold , heavy rain and strong winds set to batter SA this WEEKEND
WEATHER : Bitter cold , heavy rain and strong winds set to batter SA this WEEKEND. U . S . News and World Report ranks MSU in top 6 % of universities | MSUToday. Ukraine targets Russia with at least 660 drones overnight , Moscow says.
Sources: thesouthafrican.com, msutoday.msu.edu, abcnews.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes at 1.9% with $21K traded.
Top volume remains in Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes.
Event leaders
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 1.9% | $21K
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 10.0% | $12K
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
Top volume: 3 | 3.0% | $1K
Top odds: 2 | 70.0%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by...?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 6.0% | $1K
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Top volume: The Super Mario Galaxy Movie | 4.2% | $548
Top odds: Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 66.0%
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, benzinga.com, cointelegraph.com
Reader Favorite Publishes Review of Political Thriller The Day Satoshi Returned by Taimour Alneimat | Press Releases. World largest Bitcoin holder has never sold a single coin. Bitcoin Price Tops $59 , 152 . 21 on Major Exchanges ( BTC ).
Sources: ktbs.com, finance.yahoo.com, themarketsdaily.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by What price will Bitcoin hit in June? - ↓ 57,500 at 36.2% with $268K traded.
Top volume remains in What price will Bitcoin hit in June? - ↓ 57,500.
Event leaders
What price will Bitcoin hit in June?
Top volume & odds: ↓ 57,500 | 36.2% | $268K
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?) | 7.8% | $52K
Popular events
Sources: aol.co.uk, wbhpam.iheart.com, ktok.iheart.com
Germany enter World Cup Group E with score to settle
Germany enter World Cup Group E with score to settle. Yamal injury hangs over Spain as Uruguay , Saudi seek Group H surprise. Brands blocking key FIFA World Cup opportunities well ahead of tournament : Zee.
Sources: namibian.com.na, namibian.com.na, bestmediainfo.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by Cabo Verde at 31.0% with $5M traded.
Top volume remains in Cabo Verde.
Event leaders
FIFA World Cup: Team to advance to Knockout Stages
Top volume: South Korea | 32.0% | $228K
Top odds: Senegal | 95.4%
Top volume & odds: Spain | 75.0% | $224K
2026 FIFA World Cup: Top Goalscorer
Top volume: Ousmane Dembele | 6.8% | $113K
Top odds: Lionel Messi | 35.1%
Popular events
Ex - lawmaker emerges president of global climate legislative body. Africa : Nigeria Onuigbo Makes History As Africa Takes Lead in Global Climate Parliamentary Network. Climate . gov relaunches as climate . us outside of Trump oversight.
Sources: punchng.com, allafrica.com, mashable.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes at 4.1% with $7K traded.
Top volume remains in Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?) | 4.1% | $7K
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
Top volume & odds: ↑3k | 73.0% | $440
Popular events
+$201,666
+$196,494
+$49,172
Kalshi via Jupiter
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