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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?" Event volume totals $7M across outcomes, with $1K traded in the last 24 hours. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "4.0%" at 36.5% and $127 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?)" at 7.0% and $2M 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - USA
$5M
Highest implied
98.7%
Top priced
98.7%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
98.7%
$34K
B1
Lead market: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...? - June 21 leads the desk at 92.8% with $1M traded.
Lead stories
Rubio grilled on Iran , says US wont swap sanctions relief for strait
Rubio grilled on Iran , says US wont swap sanctions relief for strait.
Sources: economictimes.indiatimes.com
Iran - US Deal Under Fire : What Americans And Republicans Are Saying About Trump Agreement
Iran - US Deal Under Fire : What Americans And Republicans Are Saying About Trump Agreement. Friction between Trump and Republican senators is growing before the pivotal midterm elections. The politics behind Israel showdown with Kaja Kallas.
Sources: ,
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? - Yes leads the desk at 7.0% with $2M traded.
Lead stories
Iran Parliament to vote on Hormuz Strait management plan soon
Iran Parliament to vote on Hormuz Strait management plan soon.
Sources: globalsecurity.org
US says 55 ships transited Strait of Hormuz despite Iran closure claim
US says 55 ships transited Strait of Hormuz despite Iran closure claim. Why Are the Iranians Lying About Closing the Strait of Hormuz ?. Why Has Iran Closed Strait of Hormuz Again Just Days After Reopening ? JD Vance Denies , Says No Evidence.
Sources: moneycontrol.com, ,
B4
Lead market: Which company has best AI model end of June? - OpenAI leads the desk at 1.9% with $51K traded.
Lead stories
Elon Musk AI tool Grok was used in strikes against Iran : US govt
Elon Musk AI tool Grok was used in strikes against Iran : US govt. SpaceX Just Bought Cursor for $60 Billion : Big Deal for AI Coding. Just days after its IPO , SpaceX buys AI coding startup Cursor : 3 biggest things that made Elon Musk spending $60 bi....
Sources: ewn.co.za, memeburn.com, timesofindia.indiatimes.com
B5
Lead market: Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - September 30 leads the desk at 5.3% with $64K traded.
Lead stories
French Feel - Good Musical Comedy The Marching Band US Trailer
French Feel - Good Musical Comedy The Marching Band US Trailer. Governor Box Office Collection Day 4 : Manoj Bajpayee Movie Crosses Rs 3 Crore , Continues Steady Run. Russell Crowe says Gladiator sequel failed without original moral core.
Sources: firstshowing.net, newsx.com, foxnews.com
B6
Lead market: What price will Bitcoin hit in June? - ↑ 72,500 leads the desk at 5.4% with $111K traded.
Lead stories
Bitcoin and ethereum prices today , Monday , June 15 , 2026 : Prices rising after U . S ., Iran agree to ceasefire deal. Bitcoin and ethereum prices today , Thursday , June 18 , 2026 : Prices sliding despite Iran peace deal. Bitcoin and ethereum prices today , Friday , June 19 , 2026 : Prices keep falling post - Fed decision.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, finance.yahoo.com, finance.yahoo.com
B7
Lead market: 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - USA leads the desk at 3.5% with $5M traded.
Lead stories
Which City Hosted the 1998 World Cup Final ?
Which City Hosted the 1998 World Cup Final ?. ® A chance to experience the FIFA 2026 final live : Birbank and Visa campaign concludes. Downs awaits Pitso former club at FIFA tournam ….
Sources: jagranjosh.com, azertag.az, kickoff.com
Jon Rahm goes from contender to missing cut at US Open
Jon Rahm goes from contender to missing cut at US Open. Jon Rahm goes from contender to missing cut at US Open. Jon Rahm goes from contender to missing cut at US Open.
B8
Lead market: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 4.2% with $8K traded.
Lead stories
Colorado public health officials investigating hantavirus death not linked to cruise ship cluster – KTBB News , Weath....
Sources: ktbb.com
Utah measles outbreak has slowed , but the fall season may see another surge
Utah measles outbreak has slowed , but the fall season may see another surge.
Sources: fortune.com
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
98.6%
$2K
UK PM Keir Starmer expected to announce resignation on Monday : Report
UK PM Keir Starmer expected to announce resignation on Monday : Report. UK PM Starmer hot mic moment with PM Modi suggests breakthrough in trade row. After Bloody Thursday , Labour Is Already Planning for Life After Starmer.
Sources: timesofindia.indiatimes.com, moneycontrol.com, redstate.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...? - June 21 at 92.8% with $1M traded.
Top volume remains in US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...? - June 21.
Event leaders
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
Top volume & odds: June 21 | 92.8% | $1M
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?) | 3.7% | $772K
Colombia Presidential Election
Top volume: Iván Cepeda Castro | 16.0% | $417K
Top odds: Abelardo de la Espriella | 85.0%
Presidential Election Winner 2028
Top volume & odds: JD Vance | 20.1% | $355K
Popular events
9.1%
0.0pp
$13M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $663M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $634M0%
Warsh decision to drop forward guidance may actually empower the Fed other policymakers
Warsh decision to drop forward guidance may actually empower the Fed other policymakers. Warsh gamble : A quieter Federal Reserve could mean volatile markets , higher rates. A quieter Federal Reserve could mean volatile markets , higher rates.
Sources: fortune.com, economictimes.indiatimes.com, chicagotribune.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? - Yes at 7.0% with $2M traded.
Top volume remains in Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? - Yes.
Lead event
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? - Yes
Trading at 7.0% with $2M in volume.
Event leaders
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?) | 7.0% | $2M
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?) | 45.0% | $271K
Top volume & odds: No change | 78.0% | $144K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?) | 88.0% | $82K
Top volume & odds: Yes (Fed rate hike in 2026?) | 63.0% | $40K
Elon Musk AI tool Grok was used in strikes against Iran : US govt. Why SpaceX is spending $60 billion to acquire AI coding startup Cursor. SpaceX buys AI coding startup for $60B in race for an edge over Anthropic and OpenAI.
Sources: arynews.tv, indianexpress.com, finance.yahoo.com
Entirely automating everything is not the future we want : OpenAI CEO Sam Altman lays out his company vision as it op.... OpenAI , Anthropic and the New Battle for A . I . Trust.
Sources: techradar.com, observer.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Which company has best AI model end of June? - OpenAI at 1.9% with $51K traded.
Top volume remains in Which company has best AI model end of June? - OpenAI.
Event leaders
Which company has best AI model end of June?
Top volume: OpenAI | 1.9% | $51K
Top odds: Anthropic | 94.7%
Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On)
Top volume: OpenAI | 2.6% | $11K
Top odds: Anthropic | 95.3%
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
Top volume & odds: SpaceX | 87.0% | $11K
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
Top volume: ↑$1.25T | 93.0% | $3K
Top odds: ↑$1.1T | 97.6%
Vancouver City Hall landmark exterior gets FIFA World Cup flair | Daily Hive. Buy Monopoly FIFA World Cup Edition Panini Prizm Cards , Deal Game. BLACKPINK Lisa 2026 FIFA World Cup song receives flak over problematic lyrics ; netizens say , She so embarrassing.
Sources: dailyhive.com, variety.com, moneycontrol.com
As Matthew is proclaimed at Mass , listen for these themes
As Matthew is proclaimed at Mass , listen for these themes. Obituary for Yvonne Searle - East Idaho News. You have a Father who loves you.
Sources: aleteia.org, eastidahonews.com, royalgazette.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - September 30 at 5.3% with $64K traded.
Top volume remains in Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - September 30.
Lead event
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - September 30
Trading at 5.3% with $64K in volume.
Event leaders
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume: September 30 | 5.3% | $64K
Top odds: December 31 | 10.0%
Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?) | 92.0% | $48K
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 2.0% | $27K
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Top volume: Avengers: Doomsday | 14.0% | $5K
Top odds: Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 66.0%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by...?
Top volume: July 31 | 1.5% | $1K
Top odds: December 31 | 6.0%
Should You Add Ethereum to Your Portfolio Right Now ?
Should You Add Ethereum to Your Portfolio Right Now ?. What Happened to 2024 Top Cryptocurrencies ? Here Who Graduated and Who Got Held Back .. What Happened to 2024 Top Cryptocurrencies ? Here Who Graduated and Who Got Held Back ..
Bitcoin vs . the fed : How Kevin Warsh policies could make you a millionaire or trigger a market meltdown – NaturalNe.... This Billionaire Says Bitcoin Is a Better Investment Than Real Estate . Is He Right ?. BlackRock Issues Explosive $9 Trillion Prediction As The Bitcoin Price Suddenly Surges.
Sources: naturalnews.com, fool.com, forbes.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by What price will Bitcoin hit in June? - ↑ 72,500 at 5.4% with $111K traded.
Top volume remains in What price will Bitcoin hit in June? - ↑ 72,500.
Event leaders
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?) | 7.2% | $9K
Popular events
Sources: joxfm.com, torontotelegraph.com, 1075thegame.com
PSG vs Arsenal live updates : Champions League final team news , predictions and buildup
PSG vs Arsenal live updates : Champions League final team news , predictions and buildup. Premier League fixtures 2026 - 27 : Newly promoted Coventry travel to champions Arsenal on opening day. With Arsenal Premier League title , have the Kroenkes completed sport ? Well , almost ….
Sources: nytimes.com, bbc.com, nytimes.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - USA at 3.5% with $5M traded.
Top volume remains in 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - USA.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Wyndham Clark | 72.0% | $159K
2026 FIFA World Cup: Top Goalscorer
Top volume: Deniz Undav | 3.8% | $149K
Top odds: Kylian Mbappe | 24.0%
Top volume & odds: Japan | 68.0% | $39K
Popular events
Mumbai civic body allocates Rs 20 , 730 crore for climate action in FY27 , climate spending rises to 43 per cent. Msheireb Museums hosts MIKTA Climate Dialogue 2026. Uzbekistan highlights climate progress at U . N . session in Bonn.
Sources: mid-day.com, gulf-times.com, trend.az
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes at 4.2% with $8K traded.
Top volume remains in Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?) | 4.2% | $8K
Popular events
+$201,666
+$61,902
+$41,497
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
Leaderboard
#1
Awaiting data
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#5
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