Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?" Event volume totals $60M across outcomes, with $4M traded in the last 24 hours. Highest implied odds are for "August 31" at 98.8%, with top volume on "June 30" at 98.5% and $2M 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?)" at 23.0% and $1M 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Which companies will be acquired before 2027? - Nebius Group
$0
Highest implied
US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - August 31
98.8%
Top priced
US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - August 31
98.8%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - June 30 leads the desk at 98.5% with $2M traded.
Lead stories
U . S . Seeks Detailed Information on Iran Enriched Uranium Through IAEA Board Report – NaturalNews . com.
Sources: naturalnews.com
Defying Trump with brief Iran fight , Israel seeks sway over peace talks
Defying Trump with brief Iran fight , Israel seeks sway over peace talks. Why Lebanon may hold the key to the future of the Iran war.
Sources: dunyanews.tv, us.cnn.com
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? - Yes leads the desk at 23.0% with $1M traded.
Lead stories
Why Strait of Hormuz still hasnt reopened to shipping traffic despite Trump announcing Iran peace deal. Trump says oil tankers are moving through Strait of Hormuz. Europe backs Hormuz security mission ; Macron says French aircraft carrier ready to deploy.
Sources: nypost.com, siasat.com, moneycontrol.com
B4
Lead market: Which company has best AI model end of June? - Anthropic leads the desk at 91.5% with $41K traded.
Lead stories
Anthropic Top AI Scientist Locked Out of His Own Company Most Powerful AI Because He Not American
Anthropic Top AI Scientist Locked Out of His Own Company Most Powerful AI Because He Not American. How Microsoft and Apple Pivot Threatens OpenAI Dominance. OpenAI wins dismissal of Elon Musk xAI trade secret suit.
Sources: ibtimes.co.uk, geeky-gadgets.com, news.az
Mega IPOs Like SpaceX and OpenAI Could Reshape S & P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Portfolios in 2026
Mega IPOs Like SpaceX and OpenAI Could Reshape S & P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Portfolios in 2026. Major tech IPOs fetch mixed results remember that as SpaceX , OpenAI listings loom. SpaceX , OpenAI , Anthropic IPOs set to trigger Indian retail investment surge in US equities.
B5
Lead market: Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 leads the desk at 10.0% with $102K traded.
Lead stories
News brief in progress
Editors are compiling the latest reports on Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027.
Neymar World Cup doubts continue after Brazil forward has new tests on his injured right calf – Orlando Sentinel. Meet Bruna Biancardi Neymar Partner , Influencer , and Mother of His Daughters. Carlo Ancelotti reveals Neymar fitness status as Brazil star misses World Cup opener.
Sources: orlandosentinel.com, arynews.tv, fourfourtwo.com
B6
Lead market: What price will Bitcoin hit in June? - ↑ 75,000 leads the desk at 10.0% with $119K traded.
Lead stories
Bitcoin and ethereum prices today , Monday , June 15 , 2026 : Prices rising after U . S ., Iran agree to ceasefire deal. Bitcoin Climbs Back Above $65 , 000 , But Expect The True Bottom In Q4 , Analyst Says. Bitcoin Price Reclaims $65 , 000 With Conviction Is A Bigger Rally Next ?.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, benzinga.com, newsbtc.com
B7
Lead market: 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - Mexico leads the desk at 1.3% with $6M traded.
Lead stories
CBP officers in Indianapolis seize counterfeit World Cup jerseys , shirts , beanies , and other items. CBP officers in Indianapolis seize counterfeit World Cup jerseys , shirts , beanies , and other items. The Liverpool Offside World Cup 2026 Predictions : The Results.
Sources: fox2detroit.com, fox32chicago.com, liverpooloffside.sbnation.com
B8
Lead market: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 3.9% with $45K traded.
Lead stories
ESR | Worry about climate fearmongering – not climate change
ESR | Worry about climate fearmongering – not climate change.
Sources: enterstageright.com
Kering Cuts Carbon Emissions by 34 %, Expands Regenerative Agriculture to 1 mn Hectares
Kering Cuts Carbon Emissions by 34 %, Expands Regenerative Agriculture to 1 mn Hectares. First WATT and MTN Nigeria launch renewable energy infrastructure programme. Why India green transition must move beyond large - scale renewable projects.
Sources: greentechlead.com, ,
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
Iran war : Rubio says significant progres made in talks as details of potential deal emerge - follow live. Iran to give up nuclear weapons , US to lift sanctions : What in the final draft of the peace deal ?. Iran says draft US deal includes oil sanctions waiver , nuclear limits and asset release.
Sources: bbc.com, thehindubusinessline.com, al-monitor.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - June 30 at 98.5% with $2M traded.
Top volume remains in US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - June 30.
Event leaders
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
Top volume: June 30 | 11.8% | $724K
Top odds: July 31 | 21.0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?) | 34.0% | $438K
What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30?
Top volume: Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz | 16.8% | $235K
Top odds: Oil Sanction Relief | 90.0%
Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?
Top volume & odds: Switzerland | 72.7% | $233K
Popular events
8.2%
+0.3pp
$12M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $659M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $629M0%
President Trump : Ships Are Moving Through the Strait of Hormuz. First LNG Tanker Clears Hormuz After U . S .- Iran Deal Announcement. US - Iran deal guarantees Iran wont get nuclear weapons , says JD Vance.
Sources: townhall.com, oilprice.com, moneycontrol.com
Shippers remain cautious on Hormuz strait transit after US and Iran agree deal
Shippers remain cautious on Hormuz strait transit after US and Iran agree deal. Trump confirms US - Iran great peace deal , Strait of Hormuz to reopen Friday. VP Vance Confirms Hormuz Strait To Reopen Toll Free , Says Israel Has Seat At Table.
Sources: moneycontrol.com, thenews.com.pk, zerohedge.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? - Yes at 23.0% with $1M traded.
Top volume remains in Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? - Yes.
Lead event
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? - Yes
Trading at 23.0% with $1M in volume.
Event leaders
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?) | 23.0% | $1M
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?) | 63.0% | $429K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?) | 90.0% | $217K
Top volume & odds: Yes (Fed rate hike in 2026?) | 36.0% | $148K
Top volume & odds: Largest Company end of June? | 94.0% | $83K
Sources: econotimes.com, finance.yahoo.com, moneycontrol.com
Gary Black Predicts TSLA Selling Ahead Of SpaceX IPO - Tesla ( NASDAQ : TSLA )
Gary Black Predicts TSLA Selling Ahead Of SpaceX IPO - Tesla ( NASDAQ : TSLA ). Oppenheimer Predicts Nearly 41 % Upside For SPCX Ahead Of IPO - Tesla ( NASDAQ : TSLA ).
Sources: benzinga.com, benzinga.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Which company has best AI model end of June? - Anthropic at 91.5% with $41K traded.
Top volume remains in Which company has best AI model end of June? - Anthropic.
Lead event
Which company has best AI model end of June? - Anthropic
Trading at 91.5% with $41K in volume.
Event leaders
Which company has best AI model end of June?
Top volume & odds: Anthropic | 91.5% | $41K
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
Top volume & odds: SpaceX | 86.0% | $10K
Top volume & odds: December 31, 2026 | 57.0% | $6K
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
Top volume: ↑$4.0T | 9.0% | $3K
Top odds: ↑$1.1T | 97.1%
Popular events
Guest commentary : Who is a Christian ?
Guest commentary : Who is a Christian ?. Beyond Sunday Morning : A Veteran Scholar Calls the Church. BYU historian explains why LDS faith was left off Pentagon Christian list.
Sources: idahopress.com, openpr.com, freerepublic.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 at 10.0% with $102K traded.
Top volume remains in Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31.
Lead event
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31
Trading at 10.0% with $102K in volume.
Event leaders
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 10.0% | $102K
Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?) | 84.0% | $51K
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 2.1% | $17K
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Top volume: The Super Mario Galaxy Movie | 6.1% | $5K
Top odds: Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 53.0%
Top volume & odds: No Bond chosen | 91.0% | $481
Reactor reboot at world largest nuclear plant highlights flaws in Japan radioactive waste plans « nuclear - news.
Sources: nuclear-news.net
Will Bitcoin Fall Below $50 , 000 ? | The Motley Fool
Will Bitcoin Fall Below $50 , 000 ? | The Motley Fool. BTC News Today : Bitcoin Climbs Toward $66K as Trump Reveals US - Iran Peace Deal. How to Buy Bitcoin : Step - by - Step Guide for Beginners.
Sources: fool.com, bravenewcoin.com, newsx.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by What price will Bitcoin hit in June? - ↑ 75,000 at 10.0% with $119K traded.
Top volume remains in What price will Bitcoin hit in June? - ↑ 75,000.
Event leaders
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?) | 7.1% | $117K
Popular events
Invest New Zealand chief Robert Wall outlines plan to lift foreign investment. PM Modi historic New Zealand visit expected in July. Ive given it my all : Williamson brings curtain down on illustrious New Zealand career.
Sources: nzherald.co.nz, siasat.com, prokerala.com
World Cup 2026 : Pele , Maradona , Messi , Ronaldo - ranking the biggest World Cup legends
World Cup 2026 : Pele , Maradona , Messi , Ronaldo - ranking the biggest World Cup legends. Best World Cup Goal Scorer Bets Today ( Bet on Raúl Jiménez to Score in Opening Match ). Best World Cup Goal Scorer Bets Today ( Bet on Vinicius Junior to Score vs . Morocco ).
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - Mexico at 1.3% with $6M traded.
Top volume remains in 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - Mexico.
Event leaders
2026 FIFA World Cup: Top Goalscorer
Top volume: Cody Gakpo | 1.5% | $87K
Top odds: Kylian Mbappe | 16.0%
FIFA World Cup: Team to advance to Knockout Stages
Top volume: Switzerland | 88.5% | $71K
Top odds: USA | 97.9%
Popular events
Vol $254K
DayOne Data Centers Signs Landmark Renewable Energy Agreements with TNB in Malaysia
DayOne Data Centers Signs Landmark Renewable Energy Agreements with TNB in Malaysia. PAGASA launches smartphone - friendly weather monitoring app. National Hurricane Center raises tropical disturbance to 50 % chance.
Sources: thefastmode.com, bworldonline.com, el-balad.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes at 3.9% with $45K traded.
Top volume remains in Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?) | 3.9% | $45K
Popular events
+$201,666
+$41,497
+$12,586
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
Leaderboard
#1
Awaiting data
n/a
#2
Awaiting data
n/a
#3
Awaiting data
n/a
#4
Awaiting data
n/a
#5
Awaiting data
n/a