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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
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Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?" Event volume totals $116M across outcomes, with $28M traded in the last 24 hours. Highest implied odds are for "December 31" at 96.8%, with top volume on "June 15" at 84.8% and $20M 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?)" at 29.0% and $2M 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - June 15
$20M
Highest implied
FIFA World Cup: Team to advance to Knockout Stages - Spain
98.5%
Top priced
FIFA World Cup: Team to advance to Knockout Stages - Spain
98.5%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - June 15 leads the desk at 84.8% with $20M traded.
Lead stories
Taken a toll : rising Liberal star to quit politics
Taken a toll : rising Liberal star to quit politics. Viktor Orban Re - elected Fidesz Leader Despite Electoral Setback in Hungary | World News.
Rubio grilled on Iran , says US wont swap sanctions relief for strait
Rubio grilled on Iran , says US wont swap sanctions relief for strait.
Sources:
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? - Yes leads the desk at 29.0% with $2M traded.
Lead stories
Iran Parliament to vote on Hormuz Strait management plan soon
Iran Parliament to vote on Hormuz Strait management plan soon. Is the Strait of Hormuz Open or Closed on May 31 , 2026 ? Latest Update on Global Shipping Route. Two - thirds of tankers going dark to pass through Strait of Hormuz : analysts.
Sources: globalsecurity.org, newsx.com, nypost.com
Audio recording shows IRGC warning vessels against transiting Strait of Hormuz
Audio recording shows IRGC warning vessels against transiting Strait of Hormuz. Iran IRGC warns vessels against transiting Strait of Hormuz in new audio. Iran IRGC warns vessels against transiting Strait of Hormuz in new audio.
B4
Lead market: Which company has best AI model end of June? - OpenAI leads the desk at 4.8% with $66K traded.
Lead stories
Wall Street needs crash course in tokens ahead OpenAI , Anthropic IPOs
Wall Street needs crash course in tokens ahead OpenAI , Anthropic IPOs. OpenAI Just Filed for an IPO After Anthropic Beat It to the Punch . Here What That Means for the AI Investing Race .. 3 AI Stocks Poised for Long - Term Gains Despite Strong Year - to - Date Performance.
B5
Lead market: Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 leads the desk at 10.0% with $209K traded.
Lead stories
Colman Domingo Style Evolution
Colman Domingo Style Evolution. 25 Years After Box Office Disappointment , This Musical Satire Is Now A Cult Classic. Colman Domingo Style Evolution Is a Masterclass in Confidence , Elegance & Individuality.
Sources: hellobeautiful.com, screenrant.com, ipowerrichmond.com
Who Winning The World Cup : Day 3 – Permutation anticipation , Swiss history and sticker albums
Who Winning The World Cup : Day 3 – Permutation anticipation , Swiss history and sticker albums. World Cup Betting Promos ( June 2026 ): Best Promos for the World Cup. FIFA World Cup 2026 Schedule for Today : Sunday Matches & How to Watch Live for Free.
B6
Lead market: What price will Bitcoin hit in June? - ↓ 55,000 leads the desk at 8.3% with $160K traded.
Lead stories
Billionaire Mark Cuban Suddenly Flips On Bitcoin As Massive Crash Fear Hits Price
Billionaire Mark Cuban Suddenly Flips On Bitcoin As Massive Crash Fear Hits Price. Bloodbath Bitcoin Price Crash Warning Issued As BlackRock Sell - Off Revealed. Bitcoin and ethereum prices today , Monday , May 25 , 2026 : Down from last week , but rising this morning.
Sources: forbes.com, forbes.com, finance.yahoo.com
B7
Lead market: 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - Germany leads the desk at 6.1% with $6M traded.
Lead stories
Who Winning The World Cup : Day 3 – Permutation anticipation , Swiss history and sticker albums
Who Winning The World Cup : Day 3 – Permutation anticipation , Swiss history and sticker albums. World Cup Betting Promos ( June 2026 ): Best Promos for the World Cup. Neuer to start for Germany in fifth World Cup.
Sources: nytimes.com, rotowire.com, arynews.tv
Kyle Busch son , father honor late NASCAR champ at Charlotte summer racing series
Kyle Busch son , father honor late NASCAR champ at Charlotte summer racing series. Kyle Busch son , father honor late NASCAR champ at Charlotte summer racing series. Speed cameras questioned as driver fined for speeding at 46mph on M4.
B8
Lead market: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 4.3% with $114K traded.
Lead stories
US puts up $750K to evacuate an American who was aboard hantavirus cruise ship from remote island - Boston News , Wea....
Sources: whdh.com
Oman accelerates energy transition with major renewable and emissions - cut projects
Oman accelerates energy transition with major renewable and emissions - cut projects. Is super El Niño coming ? UN warns of potentially historic climate event as fossil fuel emissions push planet into da.... NextEra Energy Sustainability Report 2025 : 98 % Zero - Emissions Power , $325 bn Clean Energy Investment Plan , and....
Sources: ,
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
#1 Awaiting data
n/a
#2 Awaiting data
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#3 Awaiting data
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Kalshi via Jupiter
+$201,666
Fed Decision in June?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
News brief in progress
Editors are compiling the latest reports on Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027.
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - June 15 at 84.8% with $20M traded.
Top volume remains in US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - June 15.
Event leaders
US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
Top volume: June 15 | 84.8% | $20M
Top odds: December 31 | 96.8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Top volume & odds: Yes (US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?) | 85.0% | $1M
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?) | 12.0% | $727K
Top volume: Rebecca Shepherd | 1.5% | $410K
Top odds: Andy Burnham | 74.0%
Popular events
7.9%
0.0pp
$12M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $658M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $628M0%
Sources: prokerala.com, thehindubusinessline.com, aninews.in
Canada interest rate to be announced by central bank
Canada interest rate to be announced by central bank. Bank of Canada holds rate steady at 2 . 25 % as it grapples with mixed economic signals. Goldman Sachs Sees Fed Holding Interest Rates Steady Until 2027.
Sources: bnnbloomberg.ca, theglobeandmail.com, econotimes.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? - Yes at 29.0% with $2M traded.
Top volume remains in Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? - Yes.
Lead event
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? - Yes
Trading at 29.0% with $2M in volume.
Event leaders
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?) | 29.0% | $2M
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?) | 63.0% | $507K
Top volume & odds: No change | 94.0% | $106K
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Top volume & odds: 0 (0 bps) | 70.9% | $86K
OpenAI Just Took the First Step Toward Its IPO . Here How to Invest in the Stock Now .. OpenAI under investigation by group of state attorneys general , source says. SpaceX IPO : How record - breaking market debut is paving the way for Anthropic and OpenAI listings.
Sources: fool.com, finance.yahoo.com, smh.com.au
These 4 Artificial Intelligence Stocks Have Room to Run Thanks to Anthropic New Fable Model
These 4 Artificial Intelligence Stocks Have Room to Run Thanks to Anthropic New Fable Model. Claude Fable 5 vs GPT 5 . 5 : Is this why the Trump admin banned one and not the other ?. Anthropic shuts down Mythos access after sweeping U . S . order.
Sources: fool.com, mashable.com, latimes.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Which company has best AI model end of June? - OpenAI at 4.8% with $66K traded.
Top volume remains in Which company has best AI model end of June? - OpenAI.
Event leaders
Which company has best AI model end of June?
Top volume: OpenAI | 4.8% | $66K
Top odds: Anthropic | 87.6%
Top volume & odds: December 31, 2026 | 56.0% | $19K
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
Top volume: ↑$2.0T | 41.0% | $13K
Top odds: ↑$1.1T | 97.1%
Top volume & odds: Anthropic | 82.0% | $2K
Popular events
Sources: nytimes.com, rotowire.com, justjared.com
Guest commentary : Who is a Christian ?
Guest commentary : Who is a Christian ?. Controversy behind world largest Jesus statue currently sitting in pieces at an Armenian village. On Jesu gaze : Pope Leo speaks on being drawn in.
Sources: idahopress.com, independent.co.uk, aleteia.org
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 at 10.0% with $209K traded.
Top volume remains in Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31.
Lead event
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31
Trading at 10.0% with $209K in volume.
Event leaders
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 10.0% | $209K
Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?) | 90.0% | $32K
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 2.1% | $26K
New "Stranger Things" episode released by...?
Top volume: July 31 | 1.8% | $13K
Top odds: December 31 | 6.0%
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Top volume: Toy Story 5 | 19.2% | $9K
Top odds: Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 56.0%
Bitcoin Uselessness As Money Well Predates Its Recent Decline. What happens to Satoshi BTC when Bitcoin quantum problem is fixed ?. Bitcoin Price Up 5 . 7 % Over Last Week ( BTC ).
Sources: forbes.com, coindesk.com, themarketsdaily.com
Is Bitcoin the Safest Crypto to Own Right Now ?
Is Bitcoin the Safest Crypto to Own Right Now ?. Bitcoin ( BTC ) Price Prediction : Michael Saylor Congratulates Elon Musk After SpaceX Reveals Massive Bitcoin Holdin.... Bitcoin Price Bull Setup Finally Happening as Iran Deal Keeps BTC Above $64 , 000.
Sources: fool.com, bravenewcoin.com, cointelegraph.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by What price will Bitcoin hit in June? - ↓ 55,000 at 8.3% with $160K traded.
Top volume remains in What price will Bitcoin hit in June? - ↓ 55,000.
Event leaders
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?) | 5.8% | $69K
Popular events
Sources: wbtv.com, foxcarolina.com, swindonadvertiser.co.uk
NHL Claude Lemieux Dead at 60 , Cause of Death Suicide
NHL Claude Lemieux Dead at 60 , Cause of Death Suicide. Gavin McKenna To Attend NHL Combine & Complete All Drills. Sean Strickland challenges Vegas Golden Knights player to boxing match on ice.
Sources: eonline.com, onwardstate.com, bjpenn.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - Germany at 6.1% with $6M traded.
Top volume remains in 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - Germany.
Event leaders
Top volume: Vegas Golden Knights | 20.3% | $140K
Top odds: Carolina Hurricanes | 84.0%
FIFA World Cup: Team to advance to Knockout Stages
Top volume: France | 97.3% | $133K
Top odds: Spain | 98.5%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)
Top volume: Justin Gaethje | 21.0% | $116K
Top odds: Ilia Topuria | 80.0%
Popular events
Golden Knights and Hurricanes both bring a hyper - defensive focus into the Stanley Cup Final
Golden Knights and Hurricanes both bring a hyper - defensive focus into the Stanley Cup Final. What to know about the Stanley Cup Final between the Vegas Golden Knights and Carolina Hurricanes. Canada lengthy Stanley Cup drought continues as Habs fall to Hurricanes – Winnipeg Free Press.
Sources: tsn.ca, tsn.ca, winnipegfreepress.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes at 4.3% with $114K traded.
Top volume remains in Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?) | 4.3% | $114K
Popular events
+$41,497
+$10,838
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
Leaderboard
#1
Awaiting data
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#2
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