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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?" Event volume totals $73M across outcomes, with $11M traded in the last 24 hours. Highest implied odds are for "December 31" at 77.0%, with top volume on "June 15" at 16.5% and $7M 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?)" at 20.0% and $2M 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - June 15
$7M
Highest implied
Where will Trump and Putin meet next? - No meeting by June 30
98.5%
Top priced
Where will Trump and Putin meet next? - No meeting by June 30
98.5%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - June 15 leads the desk at 16.5% with $7M traded.
Lead stories
Congress to launch 3 - month national campaign against inflation , exam scams
Congress to launch 3 - month national campaign against inflation , exam scams. UK , Australia , and Canada Announce Launch of Major New International Fund to Scale Civil Society and Tackle Root Ca.... Cross - party group to review electoral reform in four weeks.
Sources: ianslive.in, prnewswire.com, royalgazette.com
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B
B3
Lead market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? - Yes leads the desk at 20.0% with $2M traded.
Lead stories
Iran Parliament to vote on Hormuz Strait management plan soon
Iran Parliament to vote on Hormuz Strait management plan soon. Is the Strait of Hormuz Open or Closed on May 31 , 2026 ? Latest Update on Global Shipping Route. Two - thirds of tankers going dark to pass through Strait of Hormuz : analysts.
Sources: globalsecurity.org, newsx.com, nypost.com
B4
Lead market: SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ? - >$2T leads the desk at 70.0% with $215K traded.
Lead stories
Gary Black Predicts TSLA Selling Ahead Of SpaceX IPO - Tesla ( NASDAQ : TSLA )
Gary Black Predicts TSLA Selling Ahead Of SpaceX IPO - Tesla ( NASDAQ : TSLA ). SpaceX tells investors of blue - chip credit ratings. SpaceX IPO vs OpenAI IPO : Valuations , fundamentals to growth prospects - key things to know.
Sources: benzinga.com, thestar.com.my, livemint.com
B5
Lead market: Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 leads the desk at 10.0% with $1M traded.
Lead stories
Colman Domingo Style Evolution Is a Masterclass in Confidence , Elegance & Individuality
Colman Domingo Style Evolution Is a Masterclass in Confidence , Elegance & Individuality. Blast Box Office Collection Day 14 : Arjun Sarja Action Thriller Maintains Steady Run , Crosses ₹57 Crore Worldwide. Heckler Sound makes its mark on Sydney Film Festival with two feature film premieres.
Sources: ipowerrichmond.com, newsx.com, campaignbrief.com
B6
Lead market: What price will Bitcoin hit in June? - ↓ 57,500 leads the desk at 30.3% with $81K traded.
Lead stories
Bitcoin Price Nears Structural Bottom : CryptoQuant Research
Bitcoin Price Nears Structural Bottom : CryptoQuant Research. Bitcoin Price Will Fall to $44 , 488 : Here Why Experts Are Convinced. Strategy Just Made a Major Bitcoin Buy After Selling For the First Time Since 2022 . What Does It Mean for Bitcoin In....
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, finance.yahoo.com, fool.com
B7
Lead market: 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - Norway leads the desk at 2.5% with $5M traded.
Lead stories
Kalshi World Cup Giveaway : Win a Share of $1M and Two World Cup Tickets
Kalshi World Cup Giveaway : Win a Share of $1M and Two World Cup Tickets. Is Messi playing at World Cup 2026 ?. World Cup Betting Promos ( June 2026 ): Best Promos for the World Cup.
Sources: rotowire.com, fourfourtwo.com, rotowire.com
Gregg Popovich influences Spurs , Steph Castle draft reflection and trade chatter
Gregg Popovich influences Spurs , Steph Castle draft reflection and trade chatter. Karl - Anthony Towns charged with 3rd foul as Knicks deficit increases. Spurs up by 10 , KAT with 2 fouls early.
B8
Lead market: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 3.8% with $200K traded.
Lead stories
Sustainable development : The missing link in Sri Lanka economic recovery
Sustainable development : The missing link in Sri Lanka economic recovery. NextEra Energy Sustainability Report 2025 : 98 % Zero - Emissions Power , $325 bn Clean Energy Investment Plan , and.... Sustainable partnership.
Sources: ft.lk, greentechlead.com, global.chinadaily.com.cn
Sustainable partnership. El Niño has formed . Forecasters expect a global weather powerhouse .. Inchcape Sustainability Report 2025 : Emissions Down 43 %, 1 , 500+ Solar Panels Deployed , AI Governance Reaches 100....
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
Fed Decision in June?
Peru election to be tight runoff between Fujimori and Sánchez : NPR.
Sources: npr.org
Nigeria : APC Has Number , Strength to Win Any Election - Yilwatda
Nigeria : APC Has Number , Strength to Win Any Election - Yilwatda. APC has number , strength to win any election – Yilwatda makes strong claims. Former Democrat Congressman Alan Grayson Is Back And Wants Cory Mill Seat.
Sources: allafrica.com, pmnewsnigeria.com, dailycaller.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - June 15 at 16.5% with $7M traded.
Top volume remains in US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - June 15.
Event leaders
Peru Presidential Election Winner
Top volume: Roberto Sánchez Palomino | 2.9% | $2M
Top odds: Keiko Fujimori | 95.9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?
Top volume: June 12 | 28.8% | $2M
Top odds: July 31 | 83.0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?) | 19.0% | $1M
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?) | 1.6% | $1M
7.7%
—
$12M
—
Republican nominee
Event volume $656M
Presidential election
Event volume $625M
300 ships signed up for safe passage thru Strait of Hormuz : Iran. US Warns Of Sanctions Risk If Deals On Strait Of Hormuz Passage Are Struck. Iran says IRGC Navy to control all Strait of Hormuz traffic with full authority.
Sources: nypost.com, ibtimes.com, globalsecurity.org
CME Group to Expand 24 / 7 Trading for WTI Crude Oil and Gold
CME Group to Expand 24 / 7 Trading for WTI Crude Oil and Gold. Why US Oil Prices Crashed Below $87 Today : Why crude oil markets suddenly reversed course today : US oil prices coll.... Oil prices rising amid further signs of escalating conflict in Middle East.
Sources: prnewswire.com, economictimes.indiatimes.com, news.am
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? - Yes at 20.0% with $2M traded.
Top volume remains in Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? - Yes.
Lead event
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? - Yes
Trading at 20.0% with $2M in volume.
Event leaders
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?) | 20.0% | $2M
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?) | 45.0% | $415K
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in June 2026?
Top volume: ↓ $70 | 12.0% | $63K
Top odds: ↓ $85 | 88.0%
Top volume & odds: Yes (Fed rate hike in 2026?) | 49.0% | $47K
SpaceX IPO : Is This Space and AI Stock Really Only Worth $780 Billion ?.
Sources: fool.com
Anthropic apologises , revises Claude Fable 5 AI development restrictions after backlash
Anthropic apologises , revises Claude Fable 5 AI development restrictions after backlash. Claude Web Visits Surge Before Anthropic IPO. OpenAI mulls slashing prices ahead of competition from Anthropic : WSJ.
Sources: moneycontrol.com, forbes.com, cnbc.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ? - >$2T at 70.0% with $215K traded.
Top volume remains in SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ? - >$2T.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: 2.0T-2.5T | 49.0% | $42K
Which company has best AI model end of June?
Top volume: OpenAI | 3.4% | $29K
Top odds: Anthropic | 85.3%
Top volume & odds: December 31, 2026 | 47.0% | $20K
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?
Top volume & odds: OpenAI | 3.7% | $8K
Popular events
Neymar ruled out of Brazil final FIFA World Cup warm - up against Egypt as recovery race continues. Football : Neymar set to undergo MRI. World Cup 2026 : Brazil releases statement on Neymar condition.
Sources: timesofoman.com, gdnonline.com, dailypost.ng
Emily Blunt 10 Highest - Grossing Movies
Emily Blunt 10 Highest - Grossing Movies. Mukesh Ambani has a Dhurandhar connect ! A connection many people didnt see coming. Obsession Aims to Break Even More Box Office Records in Its Historic Run.
Sources: screenrant.com, businesstoday.in, comingsoon.net
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 at 10.0% with $1M traded.
Top volume remains in Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31.
Lead event
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31
Trading at 10.0% with $1M in volume.
Event leaders
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 10.0% | $1M
Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?) | 92.0% | $24K
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Top volume: Toy Story 5 | 32.8% | $23K
Top odds: Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 44.0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 2.2% | $12K
Richest person on December 31, 2026?
Top volume & odds: Elon Musk | 94.0% | $2K
Bitcoin and ethereum prices today , Friday , June 5 , 2026 : Prices continue their descent. Bitcoin and ethereum prices today , June 10 , 2026 : BTC , ETH open lower and falling further. Bitcoin and ethereum prices today , Monday , June 8 , 2026 : Moving up after bitcoin prices fell below $60 , 000.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, finance.yahoo.com, finance.yahoo.com
Circle ( CRCL ) debuts cirBTC on Ethereum to challenge Coinbase ( COIN ) in the wrapped bitcoin market. Crypto Market Recap : Could BTC Drop to $20K ?; Zcash Crash Sparks Contagion Fears ; Mastercard Bets on Stablecoins ;.... Tether Market Capitalization Achieves $187 . 37 Billion ( USDT ).
Sources: coindesk.com, banklesstimes.com, themarketsdaily.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by What price will Bitcoin hit in June? - ↓ 57,500 at 30.3% with $81K traded.
Top volume remains in What price will Bitcoin hit in June? - ↓ 57,500.
Event leaders
Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Top volume: $200M | 77.0% | $14K
Top odds: $50M | 95.5%
Popular events
Sources: nytimes.com, abc7ny.com, abc7ny.com
Los Angeles Dodger Shohei Ohtani Stumbles In Bid For 7th Win
Los Angeles Dodger Shohei Ohtani Stumbles In Bid For 7th Win. Pittsburgh Pirates vs . Los Angeles Dodgers preview ( June 9 , 2026 ). Dodgers play the Pirates after Rushing 4 - hit game.
Sources: forbes.com, wtae.com, abc7.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - Norway at 2.5% with $5M traded.
Top volume remains in 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - Norway.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: New York Knicks | 80.4% | $2M
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Top volume & odds: Los Angeles Dodgers | 94.9% | $204K
Top volume & odds: Jalen Brunson | 50.0% | $197K
Popular events
Vol $204K
Sources: usa.chinadaily.com.cn, spokesman.com, greentechlead.com
Golden Knights vs . Hurricanes Prediction , Odds , Best Prop Bet for Stanley Cup Final Game 5
Golden Knights vs . Hurricanes Prediction , Odds , Best Prop Bet for Stanley Cup Final Game 5. bet365 bonus code : Bet $10 , get $365 in bonus bets for Golden Knights vs . Hurricanes. Vegas Golden Knights looking for big win on the road against Hurricanes.
Sources: si.com, nypost.com, fox5vegas.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes at 3.8% with $200K traded.
Top volume remains in Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?) | 3.8% | $200K
Popular events
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes
Vol $200K
Vol $147K
+$41,396
+$9,156
+$6,391
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
Leaderboard
#1
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#2
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#3
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#4
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#5
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