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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Peru Presidential Election Winner". Event volume totals $84M across outcomes, with $14M traded in the last 24 hours. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Keiko Fujimori" at 85.0% and $6M 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?)" at 1.2% and $646K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
$9M
Highest implied
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ? - >$1.2T
98.2%
Top priced
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ? - >$1.2T
98.2%
Volume leaders
$9M
68.0%
$9M
33.0%
Peru Presidential Election Winner - Keiko Fujimori
$6M
85.0%
B1
Lead market: Peru Presidential Election Winner - Keiko Fujimori leads the desk at 85.0% with $6M traded.
Lead stories
Peru Presidential Election Too Close to Call as Ipsos Quick Count Shows Statistical Tie
Peru Presidential Election Too Close to Call as Ipsos Quick Count Shows Statistical Tie.
Sources: econotimes.com
Iran war day 101 : Tensions escalate as Iran and Israel trade air attacks
Iran war day 101 : Tensions escalate as Iran and Israel trade air attacks.
Sources: aljazeera.com
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? - Yes leads the desk at 1.2% with $646K traded.
Lead stories
US adds 172 , 000 jobs in May , strongly beating expectations
US adds 172 , 000 jobs in May , strongly beating expectations. Strong US job growth beats expectations in May , firming recent gains. Strong US job growth beats expectations in May , firming recent gains.
Sources: hindustantimes.com, thedailystar.net, digitaljournal.com
B4
Lead market: SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ? - >$1.8T leads the desk at 85.0% with $185K traded.
Lead stories
What Can Crypto IPO History Tell Us About SpaceX And AI IPOs ?
What Can Crypto IPO History Tell Us About SpaceX And AI IPOs ?. Anthropic and Google Are Paying SpaceX $2 . 17 Billion Every Month That $26 Billion a Year. Elon Musk Announces Google AI Infrastructure Deal Days Ahead of SpaceX IPO.
Sources: forbes.com, ibtimes.co.uk, breitbart.com
Broadcom beefs up Spring security to protect against AI - enabled attacks
Broadcom beefs up Spring security to protect against AI - enabled attacks. IT News | Study Finds AI Models Most Favor Agnosticism. Legora Tech Chief Says Tokenmaxxing Is Really Stupid for AI Usage.
B5
Lead market: Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? - Yes leads the desk at 95.0% with $71K traded.
Lead stories
World Cup Memories Take Center Stage At New York Exhibit
World Cup Memories Take Center Stage At New York Exhibit. 9 World Cup records that could fall in North America in 2026. World Cup Retail Stores Opening Across LA Region.
Sources: forbes.com, thebiglead.com, kfiam640.iheart.com
News brief in progress
Editors are compiling the latest reports on Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027.
B6
Lead market: What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? - ↓ 55,000 leads the desk at 69.0% with $26K traded.
Lead stories
Bitcoin and ethereum prices today , Monday , June 8 , 2026 : Moving up after bitcoin prices fell below $60 , 000. Bitcoin Price Dips Below Fire Sale Territory , Echoing FTX Collapse – NaturalNews . com. Has The Bitcoin Price Crash Ended Or Is This Just The Beginning ? Analyst Answers.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, naturalnews.com, newsbtc.com
B7
Lead market: Spurs leads the desk at 68.0% with $9M traded.
Lead stories
2026 NBA Finals odds : Spurs open as clear favorites despite Knick win streak
2026 NBA Finals odds : Spurs open as clear favorites despite Knick win streak. Will the Knicks match up better against the Thunder or Spurs in NBA Finals ?. Ranking every possible NBA Finals series.
Sources: nytimes.com, nytimes.com, tsn.ca
Our writer World Cup 2026 predictions : Winners ? Breakthrough player ? Best host nation ? Shocks ?
Our writer World Cup 2026 predictions : Winners ? Breakthrough player ? Best host nation ? Shocks ?. Here how host nations have fared in FIFA World Cup history – NBC 5 Dallas - Fort Worth. Here how host nations have fared in FIFA World Cup history – NBC4 Washington.
B8
Lead market: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 5.5% with $155K traded.
Lead stories
How prediction markets could forecast the future of science
How prediction markets could forecast the future of science.
Sources: scientificamerican.com
Bangladesh faces further measles risk due to lack of vaccinations , travel
Bangladesh faces further measles risk due to lack of vaccinations , travel.
Sources: scmp.com
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
98.0%
$12K
US strikes Iran radar sites after drones near Hormuz , missiles at Kuwait and Bahrain. Iranian Rial Rate Today in Pakistan. US intercepts Iranian missiles launched toward Kuwait , Bahrain : CENTCOM.
Sources: foxnews.com, arynews.tv, kvia.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Peru Presidential Election Winner - Keiko Fujimori at 85.0% with $6M traded.
Top volume remains in Peru Presidential Election Winner - Keiko Fujimori.
Event leaders
Peru Presidential Election Winner
Top volume & odds: Keiko Fujimori | 85.0% | $6M
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?) | 1.5% | $831K
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?) | 18.0% | $361K
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Top volume & odds: Yes (US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?) | 19.0% | $307K
Popular events
7.8%
0.0pp
$12M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $654M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $622M0%
Iran Parliament to vote on Hormuz Strait management plan soon. Is the Strait of Hormuz Open or Closed on May 31 , 2026 ? Latest Update on Global Shipping Route. Most Indian ships leave Strait of Hormuz amid rising tensions.
Sources: globalsecurity.org, newsx.com, idrw.org
Iranian Official Says Hormuz to Reopen with New Toll Regime
Iranian Official Says Hormuz to Reopen with New Toll Regime. Strait will be open but ...: Iran adds new condition for ships transiting Hormuz. Iran says Strait of Hormuz to reopen with new transit fees.
Sources: oilprice.com, moneycontrol.com, thenews.com.pk
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? - Yes at 1.2% with $646K traded.
Top volume remains in Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? - Yes.
Lead event
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? - Yes
Trading at 1.2% with $646K in volume.
Event leaders
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?) | 1.2% | $646K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?) | 10.0% | $597K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?) | 28.0% | $169K
Top volume & odds: No change | 93.0% | $141K
Top volume: Apple | 3.6% | $76K
Top odds: Largest Company end of June? | 94.0%
OpenAI files IPO paperwork , eyes stock market debut
OpenAI files IPO paperwork , eyes stock market debut.
Sources: dw.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ? - >$1.8T at 85.0% with $185K traded.
Top volume remains in SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ? - >$1.8T.
Event leaders
Which company has best AI model end of June?
Top volume & odds: Anthropic | 87.1% | $33K
Popular events
AP Entertainment SummaryBrief at 1 : 52 p . m . EDT. Varun Dhawan CONFIRMS he said no to Andhadhun ; says , Original cast was me and Kangana Ranaut : Bollywood News. Charli XCX bringing Music , Fashion , Film Tour to Kia Forum.
Sources: smdailyjournal.com, bollywoodhungama.com, ocregister.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? - Yes at 95.0% with $71K traded.
Top volume remains in Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? - Yes.
Event leaders
Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?) | 95.0% | $71K
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 14.0% | $64K
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 2.1% | $30K
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Top volume: The Super Mario Galaxy Movie | 4.5% | $2K
Top odds: Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 55.0%
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
Top volume: 3 | 1.9% | $853
Top odds: 2 | 63.0%
Bitmine Makes Biggest Ethereum Purchase Of 2026. The SEC Just Included Digital Assets In Its 5 - Year Strategic Plan . Which Cryptocurrencies Could See the Biggest Ga.... 3 Stocks Under $20 to Buy Before a Broader Market Rally.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, fool.com, finance.yahoo.com
Jordi Visser Isnt Losing Sleep Over Bitcoin Slide Here Why
Jordi Visser Isnt Losing Sleep Over Bitcoin Slide Here Why. Why Strategy 32 Bitcoin sale became a bigger crypto debate. $1 , 000 in Strategy Beat the Market Long Term but Recent Buyers Face a Brutal Reckoning.
Sources: benzinga.com, cointelegraph.com, 247wallst.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? - ↓ 55,000 at 69.0% with $26K traded.
Top volume remains in What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? - ↓ 55,000.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: December 31, 2026 | 10.0% | $10K
Extended FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Top volume & odds: $150M | 74.0% | $8K
Popular events
Sources: nytimes.com, nbcdfw.com, nbcwashington.com
Stacey King , beloved Chicago Bulls broadcaster and 3X NBA champion , dies at 59
Stacey King , beloved Chicago Bulls broadcaster and 3X NBA champion , dies at 59. Who Is Stacey King Wife Debi ? Inside the Late Chicago Bulls Legend Private Marriage , Family Life. Stephen A Smith rips apart LeBron Jame GOAT statusStephen A Smith rips apart LeBron Jame GOAT status.
Sources: thegrio.com, ibtimes.co.uk, thebiglead.com
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Spurs | 68.0% | $9M
Top volume & odds: New York Knicks | 70.0% | $1M
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians
Top volume: New York Yankees | 31.0% | $134K
Top odds: Cleveland Guardians | 70.0%
Popular events
Golden Knights and Hurricanes both bring a hyper - defensive focus into the Stanley Cup Final. What to know about the Stanley Cup Final between the Vegas Golden Knights and Carolina Hurricanes.
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes at 5.5% with $155K traded.
Top volume remains in Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?) | 5.5% | $155K
Popular events
+$41,491
+$7,556
+$6,715
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
Leaderboard
#1
Awaiting data
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#2
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#3
Awaiting data
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#4
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#5
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