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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
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Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?" Event volume totals $54M across outcomes, with $2M traded in the last 24 hours. Highest implied odds are for "December 31" at 72.0%, with top volume on "June 7" at 2.8% and $1M 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?)" at 2.8% and $409K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Which companies will be acquired before 2027? - Perplexity AI
$0
Highest implied
Fed Decision in June? - No change
98.3%
Top priced
Fed Decision in June? - No change
98.3%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
Fed Decision in June? - No change
98.3%
$260K
B1
Lead market: US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - June 7 leads the desk at 2.8% with $1M traded.
Lead stories
Epic Fury is over : Rubio says war over even as Iran , US continue exchange of strikes
Epic Fury is over : Rubio says war over even as Iran , US continue exchange of strikes. Iran to respond if Israel attacks Beirut , talks with US still ongoing : Araghchi. UN watchdog nuclear agency concerned by lack of access to Iran sites ; seeks urgent inspections.
Sources: moneycontrol.com, prokerala.com, moneycontrol.com
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? - Yes leads the desk at 2.8% with $409K traded.
Lead stories
Iran Parliament to vote on Hormuz Strait management plan soon
Iran Parliament to vote on Hormuz Strait management plan soon. Is the Strait of Hormuz Open or Closed on May 31 , 2026 ? Latest Update on Global Shipping Route. Two - thirds of tankers going dark to pass through Strait of Hormuz : analysts.
Sources: globalsecurity.org, newsx.com, nypost.com
B4
Lead market: SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ? - >$1.8T leads the desk at 88.0% with $118K traded.
Lead stories
Boycotts Hurt Tesla Sales . Now , Activists Are Taking On Elon Musk SpaceX IPO
Boycotts Hurt Tesla Sales . Now , Activists Are Taking On Elon Musk SpaceX IPO. XAI Will Breakeven by Renting AI Data Center to Anthropic. SpaceX Sells Full Colossus 1 Compute to Anthropic Weeks Before $1 . 75 Trillion IPO.
Sources: wired.com, nextbigfuture.com, finance.yahoo.com
B5
Lead market: Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 leads the desk at 15.0% with $246K traded.
Lead stories
News brief in progress
Editors are compiling the latest reports on Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027.
Jesus Christ Is The Way – Finding Him As The Way At Eden
Jesus Christ Is The Way – Finding Him As The Way At Eden. AMERICA Prayer Vigil May 7 , 2026 ~PRAYER~. Do Muslims love Jesus ?.
Sources: patheos.com, freerepublic.com, christianpost.com
B6
Lead market: Bitcoin above ___ on June 5? - 64,000 leads the desk at 33.0% with $49K traded.
Lead stories
Bitcoin Is At Pivotal Level As $65K Downside Risk Looms : Analyst
Bitcoin Is At Pivotal Level As $65K Downside Risk Looms : Analyst. Bitcoin Price Prediction : BTC Flashes TD Sequential Buy Signal as $72K Support Holds , $79K Retest in Sight. Bitcoin Traders Turn Most Fearful In 2 Months Following Crash.
Sources: cointelegraph.com, bravenewcoin.com, newsbtc.com
B7
Lead market: 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - Norway leads the desk at 2.6% with $1M traded.
Lead stories
The 50 greatest players in World Cup history
The 50 greatest players in World Cup history. Where Person Fit Bet Online for World Cup 26 ? - Latest News In Nigeria , Nigeria News Today , Your Online Nigerian N.... Which City Hosted the 1998 World Cup Final ?.
Sources: aol.co.uk, nigerianeye.com, jagranjosh.com
Perkins rips Thunder star Chet Holmgren after Game 7 failure
Perkins rips Thunder star Chet Holmgren after Game 7 failure. The NBA Playoffs scoring leader quiz. NYT Connections Answers Explained For Friday , May 15 (# 1 , 069 ).
Sources:
B8
Lead market: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 6.1% with $91K traded.
Lead stories
Rise of Renewables and EVs in Australia Is Trimming Emissions
Rise of Renewables and EVs in Australia Is Trimming Emissions. Climate action cannot wait | The Peninsula Qatar. Climate Change Weekly # 581 It Hurricane Season , and Nothing Is New.
Sources: bloomberg.com, thepeninsulaqatar.com, wattsupwiththat.com
Bangladesh faces further measles risk due to lack of vaccinations , travel
Bangladesh faces further measles risk due to lack of vaccinations , travel.
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
Fed Decision in June?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
98.3%
$1K
US conducts self - defence strikes on Iranian radar , drone control sites : CENTCOM. U . S . Imposes Further Sanctions on Iran Military Oil Sales. Iranian Rial Rate Today in Pakistan.
Sources: moneycontrol.com, breitbart.com, arynews.tv
Peru election : Shamans perform blessing ritual ahead of presidential runoff
Peru election : Shamans perform blessing ritual ahead of presidential runoff. Peruvian shamans perform a blessing ritual ahead of a presidential runoff – Winnipeg Free Press. Peruvian shamans perform a blessing ritual ahead of a presidential runoff.
Sources: cp24.com, winnipegfreepress.com, abcnews.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - June 7 at 2.8% with $1M traded.
Top volume remains in US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - June 7.
Event leaders
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?) | 2.4% | $673K
Peru Presidential Election Winner
Top volume: Roberto Sánchez Palomino | 30.5% | $364K
Top odds: Keiko Fujimori | 69.0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Top volume & odds: Yes (US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?) | 29.0% | $225K
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
Top volume & odds: June 30 | 5.5% | $224K
Popular events
7.8%
-0.2pp
$12M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $650M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $617M0%
300 ships signed up for safe passage thru Strait of Hormuz : Iran. US Warns Of Sanctions Risk If Deals On Strait Of Hormuz Passage Are Struck. Iran says IRGC Navy to control all Strait of Hormuz traffic with full authority.
Sources: nypost.com, ibtimes.com, globalsecurity.org
Political pressure risks damaging trust in US central bank , Powell warns
Political pressure risks damaging trust in US central bank , Powell warns. Powell uses JFK award speech to defend Fed from political pressure. Opinion : The Stock Market May Have Dodged a Bullet With Jerome Powell Staying at the Fed.
Sources: aa.com.tr, scmp.com, finance.yahoo.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? - Yes at 2.8% with $409K traded.
Top volume remains in Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? - Yes.
Lead event
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? - Yes
Trading at 2.8% with $409K in volume.
Event leaders
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?) | 2.8% | $409K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?) | 17.0% | $297K
Top volume & odds: No change | 98.3% | $260K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?) | 34.0% | $73K
Top volume & odds: Largest Company end of June? | 95.0% | $69K
Popular events
Z Squared , Inc . Enters $50 Million Committed Equity Forward Purchase Agreement to Support AI Infrastructure Buildout.
Sources: prnewswire.com
Anthropic IPO is Just Ahead . Here What You Need to Know .
Anthropic IPO is Just Ahead . Here What You Need to Know .. These LLMs are the best at resisting Russian propaganda. Netflix and HBO Max Dominate Streaming AI Visibility , According to 5W AI Intelligence.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, arstechnica.com, prnewswire.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ? - >$1.8T at 88.0% with $118K traded.
Top volume remains in SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ? - >$1.8T.
Event leaders
Which company has best AI model end of June?
Top volume: OpenAI | 3.4% | $24K
Top odds: Anthropic | 82.8%
Top volume: 1.5T+ | 22.5% | $6K
Top odds: No IPO by December 31, 2026 | 30.0%
Popular events
Hugh Jackman Top 5 Highest - Grossing Films : Which Movie Earned The Biggest Box Office Profit ?. Michael creeps closer to highest - grossing film ?. Masters Of The Universe Box Office : How Much It Needs To Beat Jared Leto Highest - Grossing Film , Suicide Squad.
Sources: koimoi.com, thenews.com.pk, koimoi.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 at 15.0% with $246K traded.
Top volume remains in Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31.
Lead event
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31
Trading at 15.0% with $246K in volume.
Event leaders
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 15.0% | $246K
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 2.0% | $11K
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Top volume: The Super Mario Galaxy Movie | 3.3% | $6K
Top odds: Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 57.0%
Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?) | 89.0% | $6K
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
Top volume: 4 | 3.0% | $5K
Top odds: 2 | 66.0%
Billionaire Mark Cuban Suddenly Flips On Bitcoin As Massive Crash Fear Hits Price. Bloodbath Bitcoin Price Crash Warning Issued As BlackRock Sell - Off Revealed. Bitcoin and ethereum prices today , Monday , May 25 , 2026 : Down from last week , but rising this morning.
Sources: forbes.com, forbes.com, finance.yahoo.com
BTC , ETH , SOL and XRP ETFs bleed $4 . 4 billion over 13 sessions , only HYPE in green
BTC , ETH , SOL and XRP ETFs bleed $4 . 4 billion over 13 sessions , only HYPE in green. Standard Chartered crypto bull sticks to $100 , 000 bitcoin call despite painful week. Bitcoin Cant Compete With the AI Trade.
Sources: coindesk.com, finance.yahoo.com, finance.yahoo.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by Bitcoin above ___ on June 5? - 64,000 at 33.0% with $49K traded.
Top volume remains in Bitcoin above ___ on June 5? - 64,000.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: December 31, 2026 | 11.0% | $30K
Popular events
2026 NBA Finals odds : Spurs open as clear favorites despite Knick win streak
2026 NBA Finals odds : Spurs open as clear favorites despite Knick win streak. History between Knicks and Spurs ahead of NBA Finals matchup – NBC 5 Dallas - Fort Worth. History between Knicks and Spurs ahead of NBA Finals matchup – NBC4 Washington.
Sources: nytimes.com, nbcdfw.com, nbcwashington.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - Norway at 2.6% with $1M traded.
Top volume remains in 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - Norway.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: New York Knicks | 53.6% | $847K
Top volume & odds: Golden Knights | 57.0% | $249K
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves
Top volume & odds: Toronto Blue Jays | 84.0% | $244K
Popular events
2026 NBA Champion - New York Knicks
Vol $847K
Vol $400K
Sources: scmp.com
Stanley Cup Final : Hurricanes host Vegas in Game 2
Stanley Cup Final : Hurricanes host Vegas in Game 2. How to Watch Stanley Cup Finals : Live Stream Golden Knights Vs . Hurricanes From Anywhere. Open Thread : Hurricanes look to even series in Game 2 of Stanley Cup Final against Golden Knights.
Sources: wxii12.com, businessinsider.com, russianmachineneverbreaks.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes at 6.1% with $91K traded.
Top volume remains in Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?) | 6.1% | $91K
Popular events
Vol $249K
+$5,817
+$4,638
+$3,499
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
Leaderboard
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