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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" Event volume totals $23M across outcomes. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?)" at 6.8% and $0 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?)" at 2.3% and $2M 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? - Yes
$0
Highest implied
98.8%
Top priced
98.8%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
98.8%
$2K
B1
Lead market: US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - May 31 leads the desk at 23.0% with $3M traded.
Lead stories
US - Iran news live : Rubio says Iran deal may take days as Trump warns over enriched uranium
US - Iran news live : Rubio says Iran deal may take days as Trump warns over enriched uranium. Why US strikes in self - defence against Iran threaten progress on talks to end the war | Explained News.
Sources: moneycontrol.com, indianexpress.com
Atiku floors Amaechi in Anambra ADC presidential primaries
Atiku floors Amaechi in Anambra ADC presidential primaries. ADC presidential primary : Atiku defeats Amaechi in Ebonyi. ADC presidential primary : Atiku wins Ebonyi with 15 , 300 votes.
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B
B3
Lead market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? - Yes leads the desk at 2.3% with $2M traded.
Lead stories
Iran defines boundaries of Strait of Hormuz , mandates coordination and permit for vessels
Iran defines boundaries of Strait of Hormuz , mandates coordination and permit for vessels. Iran announces new regulatory body to manage Strait of Hormuz. Iran vows enemy weapons shipments cannot cross Strait of Hormuz.
Sources: aninews.in, thehindubusinessline.com, tribune.com.pk
B4
Lead market: Which company has best AI model end of June? - OpenAI leads the desk at 2.5% with $27K traded.
Lead stories
He Knows the Flaws Because He Knows the Man : Why Elon Musk OpenAI Attack Is Really About xAI
He Knows the Flaws Because He Knows the Man : Why Elon Musk OpenAI Attack Is Really About xAI. Inside the $40 Billion Google Deal Fueling Anthropic 2026 IPO. OpenAI to provide latest cybersecurity AI model to Japanese firms | The Asahi Shimbun : Breaking News , Japan News an....
Sources: 247wallst.com, geeky-gadgets.com, asahi.com
Musk : SpaceX Is Actively Seeking More AI Compute Customers , After Anthropic Deal
Musk : SpaceX Is Actively Seeking More AI Compute Customers , After Anthropic Deal. AI Crypto Mania : Venice , Akash , and Worldcoin Surge on SpaceX – OpenAI IPO Fever. US Stock Market : SpaceX , OpenAI IPO excitement revives debate over lofty valuations.
B5
Lead market: Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 leads the desk at 16.0% with $69K traded.
Lead stories
News brief in progress
Editors are compiling the latest reports on Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027.
5 Ways to make Sacred Heart consecration change your family
5 Ways to make Sacred Heart consecration change your family. Do You Need to Consume Jesus Under Both Species to Receive All of Him ? ( The Patrick Madrid Show ). WATCH Florida Church Sees 2 , 552 Baptized During Annual Beach Baptism Event.
Sources: aleteia.org, relevantradio.com, breitbart.com
B6
Lead market: MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? - May 31, 2026 leads the desk at 3.8% with $541K traded.
Lead stories
Alberta Pension Powerhouse Pivots to Bitcoin : AIMCo Discloses Major MicroStrategy Stake
Alberta Pension Powerhouse Pivots to Bitcoin : AIMCo Discloses Major MicroStrategy Stake. Grok AI is Bullish on MicroStrategy ( MSTR ) Despite Bitcoin Volatility. Bitcoin Supply Shock Incoming ? Galaxy CEO Warns Not Enough Supply For Michael Saylor Buying Strategy.
Sources: econotimes.com, insidermonkey.com, finance.yahoo.com
B7
Lead market: 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - Norway leads the desk at 2.5% with $2M traded.
Lead stories
The 50 greatest players in World Cup history
The 50 greatest players in World Cup history. Which City Hosted the 1998 World Cup Final ?. PRE - WORLD CUP | OPEN THREAD | MAY 25 , 2026.
Sources: aol.co.uk, jagranjosh.com, managingmadrid.com
Spurs vs . Thunder Prediction , Odds and Best Prop Bets for NBA Playoffs Game 5
Spurs vs . Thunder Prediction , Odds and Best Prop Bets for NBA Playoffs Game 5. Game Five Preview : San Antonio Spurs vs . Oklahoma City Thunder. Knicks are the biggest winners of a grueling Thunder vs Spurs Western Conference Finals.
B8
Lead market: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 5.4% with $198K traded.
Lead stories
Is Hantavirus a threat to Europe ? Climate change and habitat destruction are increasing the risk
Is Hantavirus a threat to Europe ? Climate change and habitat destruction are increasing the risk.
Sources: euronews.com
Steven Guilbeault to resign as MP : CTV News confirms
Steven Guilbeault to resign as MP : CTV News confirms. Kenya Unveils First Private Sector Climate Training Curriculum as Extreme Weather Threatens Key Industries. Africa Has Been Managing Climate Volatility for Decades - What the Rest of the World Can Learn From It.
Sources: bnnbloomberg.ca,
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
98.8%
$1K
Sources: dailypost.ng, dailypost.ng, thenationonlineng.net
Israel pushes for war amid US ceasefire , but its options may be limited
Israel pushes for war amid US ceasefire , but its options may be limited.
Sources: aljazeera.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - May 31 at 23.0% with $3M traded.
Top volume remains in US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - May 31.
Event leaders
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
Top volume: May 31 | 9.1% | $338K
Top odds: December 31 | 48.0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?) | 2.7% | $284K
Popular events
8.4%
—
$12M
—
Republican nominee
Event volume $642M
Presidential election
Event volume $602M
Red Lines in Water : Iran Removes Strait of Hormuz From Memorandum With US. Strait Of Hormuz May Reopen 30 Days After US - Iran Peace Deal : Report. US - Iran talks are heating up again . But the danger isnt over for gas prices.
Sources: globalsecurity.org, freepressjournal.in, cnn.com
New Fed Chair Warsh is doomed to break with his campaign pitch
New Fed Chair Warsh is doomed to break with his campaign pitch. Best high - yield savings interest rates today , Tuesday , May 26 , 2026 : Earn up to 4 . 1 % APY. Best CD rates today , Tuesday , May 26 , 2026 : Lock in up to 4 % APY today.
Sources: newsday.com, finance.yahoo.com, finance.yahoo.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? - Yes at 2.3% with $2M traded.
Top volume remains in Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? - Yes.
Lead event
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? - Yes
Trading at 2.3% with $2M in volume.
Event leaders
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?) | 2.3% | $2M
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?) | 42.0% | $361K
Top volume & odds: No change | 97.3% | $298K
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?
Top volume: ↑ $110 | 4.1% | $221K
Top odds: ↓ $90 | 69.0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?) | 61.0% | $99K
Grok falls flat in Washington , undercutting SpaceX AI growth story
Grok falls flat in Washington , undercutting SpaceX AI growth story. SpaceX to acquire AI coding startup Cursor for $60B after IPO. AI chatbots face major backlash over left - wing bias : Can no longer be considered neutral and cannot be trusted.
Sources: zawya.com, thenextweb.com, nypost.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Which company has best AI model end of June? - OpenAI at 2.5% with $27K traded.
Top volume remains in Which company has best AI model end of June? - OpenAI.
Event leaders
Which company has best AI model end of June?
Top volume: OpenAI | 2.5% | $27K
Top odds: Anthropic | 78.2%
Which company has the best AI model end of May?
Top volume & odds: Anthropic | 98.6% | $14K
Top volume & odds: December 31, 2026 | 70.0% | $8K
Pick your perfect World Cup 2026 look with FourFourTwo kit picker. World Cup 2026 Enthralls Austria , FIFA Loses Trust. Chinese manufacturing rides World Cup 2026 boom , with global sporting event underscoring China - made products as a....
Sources: fourfourtwo.com, vol.at, globaltimes.cn
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 at 16.0% with $69K traded.
Top volume remains in Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31.
Lead event
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31
Trading at 16.0% with $69K in volume.
Event leaders
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 16.0% | $69K
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 2.2% | $50K
Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?) | 91.0% | $14K
Elon Musk musk # tweets in May 2026?
Top volume: Elon Musk musk # tweets in May 2026? | 7.8% | $7K
Top odds: Elon Musk musk # tweets in May 2026? | 33.7%
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Top volume: Toy Story 5 | 7.3% | $3K
Top odds: Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 60.0%
Bloodbath Bitcoin Price Crash Warning Issued As BlackRock Sell - Off Revealed. Bitcoin To Nasdaq Valuation Gap Widens : Will It Benefit BTC ?. Is Bitcoin a Good Long - Term Investment for Beginners ?.
Sources: forbes.com, cointelegraph.com, 247wallst.com
Bitcoin Sell Pressure Rising ? Binance Inflows Hit 10 - Day Streak
Bitcoin Sell Pressure Rising ? Binance Inflows Hit 10 - Day Streak. Strive stacks more bitcoin as ASST surges 133 % in three months. Best Cryptos to Hold for the Next 5 Years.
Sources: newsbtc.com, coindesk.com, finance.yahoo.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? - May 31, 2026 at 3.8% with $541K traded.
Top volume remains in MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? - May 31, 2026.
Lead event
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? - May 31, 2026
Trading at 3.8% with $541K in volume.
Event leaders
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ?
Top volume: May 31, 2026 | 3.8% | $541K
Top odds: December 31, 2026 | 78.0%
Extended FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Top volume & odds: $150M | 62.0% | $13K
Will Base launch a token by ___ ?
Top volume & odds: December 31, 2026 | 36.0% | $10K
Popular events
Sources: si.com, poundingtherock.com, fansided.com
The Top 10 African clubs , CAF Club Ranking 2026
The Top 10 African clubs , CAF Club Ranking 2026. How Aston Villa win in Europa League final impacted Premier League Champions League qualification. Enzo Fernandez wants to join Man City.
Sources: udakuspecially.com, themag.co.uk, caughtoffside.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - Norway at 2.5% with $2M traded.
Top volume remains in 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - Norway.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: PSG | 58.0% | $464K
NBA Playoffs: Western Conference Champion
Top volume & odds: Oklahoma City Thunder | 53.0% | $112K
Popular events
PWHL goes the way of San Jose in adding a fourth expansion team and growing to 12 overall - Boston News , Weather , S....
Sources: whdh.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes at 5.4% with $198K traded.
Top volume remains in Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?) | 5.4% | $198K
Popular events
+$77,609
+$23,195
+$9,899
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
Leaderboard
#1
Awaiting data
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#2
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#3
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#4
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#5
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