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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" Event volume totals $23M across outcomes. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?)" at 6.2% and $0 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?)" at 4.3% and $492K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? - Yes
$0
Highest implied
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑2k
98.9%
Top priced
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑2k
98.9%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: Israel x Syria security agreement by...? - June 30 leads the desk at 8.0% with $1M traded.
Lead stories
Türkiye says Syria moving toward sustainable stability
Türkiye says Syria moving toward sustainable stability. From Tragedy to Opportunity , New Syria Is Writing Its Own Story , Security Council Hears , as Speakers Laud Progress.... Israeli occupation forces carry out incursion into southern countryside of Quneitra.
Sources: hurriyetdailynews.com, globalsecurity.org, sana.sy
Geopolitical power play : Trump fails to trade Taiwan for Iran as Putin heads to China and Mercedes eyes defense sector. Geopolitical power play : Trump fails to trade Taiwan for Iran as Putin heads to China and Mercedes eyes defense sector. Trump reveals Xi Jinping response to possibly releasing imprisoned Chinese critic Jimmy Lai.
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B
B3
Lead market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? - Yes leads the desk at 4.3% with $492K traded.
Lead stories
UAE Will Double Oil Export Capacity Bypassing Hormuz by 2027
UAE Will Double Oil Export Capacity Bypassing Hormuz by 2027. U . S ., Iran stall on Hormuz reopening as oil supplies tighten. Iran to soon unveil mechanism to manage Strait of Hormuz : Senior lawmaker.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, fortune.com, ibtimes.co.in
B4
Lead market: Which company has the best AI model end of May? - Google leads the desk at 9.0% with $66K traded.
Lead stories
ExlService Investor Day Spotlights AI Push , Double - Digit Growth Goals
ExlService Investor Day Spotlights AI Push , Double - Digit Growth Goals.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com
SpaceX , OpenAI , and Anthropic : Here are the most anticipated IPOs in 2026
SpaceX , OpenAI , and Anthropic : Here are the most anticipated IPOs in 2026. AI Spending Hurts Alibaba Q4 Profits . BABA Stock Is Still Rocking Higher .. Musk Launches Grok Build Beta for SuperGrok Heavy Grok Ai.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, ,
B5
Lead market: NBA MVP - Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads the desk at 97.9% with $284K traded.
Lead stories
NBA MVP Award : Our Case for Each of the Three Finalists for Basketball Most Prestigious Award
NBA MVP Award : Our Case for Each of the Three Finalists for Basketball Most Prestigious Award. Paul Pierce thinks LeBron James should retire due to criticism. Why Spurs won in 6 , not 5 , not 4 ? | Pounding The Rock.
Sources: si.com, awfulannouncing.com, poundingtherock.com
What Is Cannes Film Festival ? Date , History , Awards And Why It Matters
What Is Cannes Film Festival ? Date , History , Awards And Why It Matters. AMVCA 2026 Cultural Night : Stars celebrate African heritage. Jaafar Jackson pays tribute to Michael Jackson at Met Gala 2026.
B6
Lead market: MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? - May 31, 2026 leads the desk at 30.0% with $477K traded.
Lead stories
Grok AI is Bullish on MicroStrategy ( MSTR ) Despite Bitcoin Volatility
Grok AI is Bullish on MicroStrategy ( MSTR ) Despite Bitcoin Volatility. MicroStrategy Reveals It Will Sell Bitcoin Under These Conditions. Analyst Says Trump Can Take Bitcoin to 500K . This ETF Might Go Parabolic.
Sources: insidermonkey.com, finance.yahoo.com, finance.yahoo.com
Current price of Bitcoin for May 31 , 2026
Current price of Bitcoin for May 31 , 2026. Strategy Quietly Confirms Shock Plan To Sell Bitcoin , Sparking Sudden Price Crash Panic. Current price of Bitcoin for May 14 , 2026.
B7
Lead market: 2026 NBA Champion - Cleveland Cavaliers leads the desk at 2.0% with $353K traded.
Lead stories
Spurs dominate Wolves in Game 6 , will face Thunder next in Western Conference finals
Spurs dominate Wolves in Game 6 , will face Thunder next in Western Conference finals. Paul Pierce thinks LeBron James should retire due to criticism. Spurs use complete effort to dominate Timberwolves.
Sources: nytimes.com, awfulannouncing.com, yardbarker.com
B8
Lead market: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 7.3% with $201K traded.
Lead stories
The Hantavirus Is Also a Climate Warning - Watts Up With That ?
The Hantavirus Is Also a Climate Warning - Watts Up With That ?.
Sources: wattsupwiththat.com
How Technology Is Helping Fight Climate Change and Build a Sustainable Future
How Technology Is Helping Fight Climate Change and Build a Sustainable Future. New El Niño forecast warns of a powerful shift amid hurricane season. El Niño outlook : Seasonal models predict climate pattern could be strongest on record , bring more extreme weather.
Sources: techtimes.com, ,
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
98.7%
$3K
Sources: bankingnews.gr, bankingnews.gr, nypost.com
FBI Offers $200 , 000 Reward To Catch Former US Air Force Specialist In Iran Spying Case
FBI Offers $200 , 000 Reward To Catch Former US Air Force Specialist In Iran Spying Case. FBI offers $200 , 000 for former Air Force specialist accused of spying for Iran. Is Iran already a nuclear power ? | The Manila Times.
Sources: zerohedge.com, jpost.com, manilatimes.net
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Israel x Syria security agreement by...? - June 30 at 8.0% with $1M traded.
Top volume remains in Israel x Syria security agreement by...? - June 30.
Event leaders
Israel x Syria security agreement by...?
Top volume & odds: June 30 | 8.0% | $1M
What will Trump say during bilateral events with Xi Jinping?
Top volume & odds: Iran | 2.9% | $1M
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?) | 5.0% | $552K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
Top volume: May 31 | 10.0% | $523K
Top odds: December 31 | 66.0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Top volume: May 31 | 6.0% | $417K
Top odds: December 31 | 27.0%
8.6%
—
$13M
—
Republican nominee
Event volume $619M
Presidential election
Event volume $583M
Iran to charge Hormuz transit fees for commercial vessels , countries cooperating with Tehran : Ebrahim Azizi. Iran Panics as China and U . S . Align on Strait of Hormuz. Iran to soon unveil mechanism to manage Strait of Hormuz : Senior lawmaker.
Sources: moneycontrol.com, breitbart.com, prokerala.com
Larry Kudlow : Jay Powell Is Stupid to Stay at Fed Reserve
Larry Kudlow : Jay Powell Is Stupid to Stay at Fed Reserve. US Fed board names Powell temporary chief pending Warsh swearing - in. US Fed board names Powell temporary chief pending Warsh swearing - in.
Sources: mediaite.com, economictimes.indiatimes.com, manilatimes.net
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? - Yes at 4.3% with $492K traded.
Top volume remains in Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? - Yes.
Lead event
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? - Yes
Trading at 4.3% with $492K in volume.
Event leaders
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?) | 4.3% | $492K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?) | 29.0% | $285K
Top volume & odds: No change | 98.0% | $212K
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?
Top volume: ↑ $150 | 1.7% | $88K
Top odds: ↑ $105 | 82.0%
Top volume & odds: Largest Company end of May? | 95.8% | $44K
Popular events
AI startups now make up nearly half of US venture capital market : Report
AI startups now make up nearly half of US venture capital market : Report. Some Early OpenAI Workers Became Very , Very Rich. SpaceX IPO 2026 : US Stock Market IPO in 2026 : SpaceX , Anthropic , OpenAI , Inspire Brands , Discord . Check filing....
Sources: businesstoday.in, newser.com, economictimes.indiatimes.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Which company has the best AI model end of May? - Google at 9.0% with $66K traded.
Top volume remains in Which company has the best AI model end of May? - Google.
Lead event
Which company has the best AI model end of May? - Google
Trading at 9.0% with $66K in volume.
Event leaders
Which company has the best AI model end of May?
Top volume: Google | 9.0% | $66K
Top odds: Anthropic | 88.0%
What will SpaceX's public ticker be?
Top volume: $X | 4.8% | $32K
Top odds: Other (incl $SPCX) | 93.0%
Top volume & odds: SpaceX | 96.5% | $12K
Popular events
Sources: newsx.com, theeagleonline.com.ng, news.az
Coeur dAlene approves utility work for new LDS temple
Coeur dAlene approves utility work for new LDS temple. Pope Leo laughs with young people , urges one virtue. The perfect priesthood of Christ and the longest prayer in the Gospels.
Sources: krem.com, aleteia.org, catholicworldreport.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by NBA MVP - Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at 97.9% with $284K traded.
Top volume remains in NBA MVP - Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 97.9% | $284K
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume: June 30 | 2.3% | $120K
Top odds: December 31 | 13.0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 2.2% | $72K
Elon Musk musk # tweets in May 2026?
Top volume: Elon Musk musk # tweets in May 2026? | 6.6% | $5K
Top odds: Elon Musk musk # tweets in May 2026? | 10.2%
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Top volume: The Super Mario Galaxy Movie | 8.9% | $4K
Top odds: Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 58.0%
Popular events
Sources: fortune.com, forbes.com, fortune.com
Prediction : Bitcoin Will Hit $1 Million -- Here the Timeline
Prediction : Bitcoin Will Hit $1 Million -- Here the Timeline. Here When Bitcoin Could Reach $10M Under Power Law Model. Bitcoin and ethereum prices today , Wednesday , May 13 , 2026 : Prices holding as China summit kicks off.
Sources: fool.com, newsbtc.com, finance.yahoo.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? - May 31, 2026 at 30.0% with $477K traded.
Top volume remains in MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? - May 31, 2026.
Lead event
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? - May 31, 2026
Trading at 30.0% with $477K in volume.
Event leaders
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ?
Top volume: May 31, 2026 | 30.0% | $477K
Top odds: December 31, 2026 | 86.0%
What price will Bitcoin hit in May?
Top volume & odds: ↓ 75,000 | 59.0% | $202K
Top volume: June 30, 2026 | 1.2% | $23K
Top odds: December 31, 2026 | 17.0%
What price will Bitcoin hit May 11-17?
Top volume & odds: ↓ 76,000 | 13.8% | $20K
Popular events
Kristoffer Reitan secures breakthrough PGA Tour success as Alex Fitzpatrick fades at Quail Hollow. PGA Champs Official Film 2011. PGA Champs Official Film 2011.
Sources: aol.co.uk, tvguide.co.uk, tvguide.co.uk
Beth Mead to leave Arsenal at end of season
Beth Mead to leave Arsenal at end of season. Sundown cup final anxieties plugged in .... Will Arsenal finish above Chelsea in the WSL and why does it matter ?.
Sources: bbc.com, kickoff.com, fourfourtwo.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by 2026 NBA Champion - Cleveland Cavaliers at 2.0% with $353K traded.
Top volume remains in 2026 NBA Champion - Cleveland Cavaliers.
Event leaders
Top volume: Cleveland Cavaliers | 2.0% | $353K
Top odds: Oklahoma City Thunder | 59.0%
Top volume: Scottie Scheffler | 5.0% | $213K
Top odds: Alex Smalley | 16.6%
Top volume & odds: PSG | 59.0% | $97K
NBA Playoffs: Western Conference Champion
Top volume: San Antonio Spurs | 31.9% | $57K
Top odds: Oklahoma City Thunder | 69.0%
NBA Playoffs: Eastern Conference Champion
Top volume & odds: New York Knicks | 68.0% | $43K
Popular events
Stanley Cup Odds : Hurricanes and Avalanche on Collision Course for Stanley Cup Final
Stanley Cup Odds : Hurricanes and Avalanche on Collision Course for Stanley Cup Final. Blake OT winner gives Carolina Hurricanes win in Game 4 to complete sweep over Philadelphia Flyers. Blake overtime goal lifts the Hurricanes 3 - 2 over the Flyers for their second playoff series sweep – Baltimore Sun.
Sources: si.com, tsn.ca, baltimoresun.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes at 7.3% with $201K traded.
Top volume remains in Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?) | 7.3% | $201K
Popular events
+$77,609
+$23,195
+$12,674
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
Leaderboard
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