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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" Event volume totals $23M across outcomes. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?)" at 6.2% and $0 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?)" at 14.0% and $850K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? - Yes
$0
Highest implied
Maine Democratic Senate Primary Winner - Graham Platner
98.5%
Top priced
Maine Democratic Senate Primary Winner - Graham Platner
98.5%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - May 11 leads the desk at 1.2% with $2M traded.
Lead stories
The Hindu Morning Digest : May 10 , 2026
The Hindu Morning Digest : May 10 , 2026. Stephanie Grace : LA Senate race about more than Bill Cassidy | Opinion. INDIA Bloc Collapsing ? What Do DMK - Congress - CPM Rifts After Elections Say About Alliance Fate ?.
Sources: thehindu.com, theadvocate.com, newsx.com
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? - Yes leads the desk at 14.0% with $850K traded.
Lead stories
Pakistan in talks with Iran for more Qatar LNG via Strait of Hormuz
Pakistan in talks with Iran for more Qatar LNG via Strait of Hormuz. Tanker struck off Qatar as Iran warns of US sanction supporters. India , Iran to talk safe passage through Hormuz at BRICS meet.
Sources: moneycontrol.com, jpost.com, economictimes.indiatimes.com
B4
Lead market: Which companies will be acquired before 2027? - Anthropic leads the desk at 12.0% with $18K traded.
Lead stories
Why Vanguard Flagship Tech ETF Might Not Be a Good Investment if Youre Interested in AI Stocks
Why Vanguard Flagship Tech ETF Might Not Be a Good Investment if Youre Interested in AI Stocks.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com
2026 - 05 - 10 | Faraday Future Acknowledged and Appointed YT Jia as Sole Global CEO and Jerry Wang Appointed Global.... US Said to Suspect Nvidia Chips Smuggled to Alibaba Via Thailand.
Sources: stockhouse.com,
B5
Lead market: Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - May 31 leads the desk at 2.1% with $401K traded.
Lead stories
How Celebrities Served Fashion , Glamour And Star Power At AMVCA 2026
How Celebrities Served Fashion , Glamour And Star Power At AMVCA 2026. My Father Shadow Dominates the 12th AMVCA Awards. AMVCA Awards : Ejiofor & Franklin Shine as Winners Emerge.
Sources: channelstv.com, punchng.com, punchng.com
Ajay Mitchell breakout was another sign of the Thunder impressive depth
Ajay Mitchell breakout was another sign of the Thunder impressive depth. Steve Kerr timeline as coach of Golden State Warriors. Steve Kerr agrees to 2 - year deal to remain with Warriors.
B6
Lead market: MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? - May 31, 2026 leads the desk at 39.0% with $205K traded.
Lead stories
Jim Cramer on Strategy Inc : You Want to Own Bitcoin ? Buy Bitcoin
Jim Cramer on Strategy Inc : You Want to Own Bitcoin ? Buy Bitcoin. The Saylor Pivot : Strategy Breaks Never Sell Vow to Fuel Dividends. Billionaire Michael Saylor said he would never sell bitcoin . After 3 straight quarterly losses , he changing his mind.
Sources: insidermonkey.com, econotimes.com, finance.yahoo.com
Anthony Scaramucci on MAGA , Midterms , Crypto and Trump Grip on the GOP
Anthony Scaramucci on MAGA , Midterms , Crypto and Trump Grip on the GOP. Analyst Predicts Biggest Bitcoin Bull Trap Of The Cycle , Calls Out 50 % Crash To $42 , 000. Bitcoin 4 - Year Cycle Says BTC Should Be at $150 , 000 by End of 2026.
B7
Lead market: Spurs leads the desk at 68.0% with $274K traded.
Lead stories
Spurs vs . Timberwolves Western Semifinals | Game 4 Injury Report – May 10
Spurs vs . Timberwolves Western Semifinals | Game 4 Injury Report – May 10. Spurs vs . Timberwolves Western Semifinals | Game 4 Injury Report – May 10. Spurs vs . Timberwolves Western Semifinals | Game 4 Injury Report – May 10.
Sources: am1300thezone.iheart.com, kfan.iheart.com, sportsradio957.iheart.com
B8
Lead market: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 7.3% with $1M traded.
Lead stories
The country where lethal hantavirus cases are on the rise . Experts blame climate change
The country where lethal hantavirus cases are on the rise . Experts blame climate change.
Sources: yahoo.com
Pakistan Sets Target of 95 % Renewable Electricity by 2040
Pakistan Sets Target of 95 % Renewable Electricity by 2040. 200 European cities and regions call for more ambitious EU climate and energy targets. Firm on climate action.
Sources: propakistani.pk, eturbonews.com,
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
NBA MVP - Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
97.7%
$20K
Newly elected DA KZN leader Ngema shifts focus to local government elections. Transcript : Sen . Mark Kelly on Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan , May 10 , 2026. Congress Demands Parliament Debate Over China Role in Operation Sindoor Support to Pakistan.
Sources: ewn.co.za, yahoo.com, dailypioneer.com
Donald Trump update : Iran war could make US president trip to see Xi Jinping in China a bit chillier than his first.... Iran war could make Trump trip to China a bit chillier than his first - term visit – Orange County Register. Iran war could make Trump trip to China a bit chillier than his first - term visit.
Sources: 9news.com.au, ocregister.com, ksat.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - May 11 at 1.2% with $2M traded.
Top volume remains in US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - May 11.
Event leaders
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?) | 27.0% | $523K
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Top volume: May 31 | 6.0% | $351K
Top odds: December 31 | 27.0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?) | 1.9% | $242K
Popular events
8.4%
+0.1pp
$13M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $612M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $575M0%
Iran army says countries siding with US to face difficultie in Hormuz. Iran issues horror 3 - word warning to Britain over Royal Navy warship | World | News. Tensions continue after HMS Dragon sets sail for Middle East as Iran issues fresh warning.
Sources: economictimes.indiatimes.com, express.co.uk, lbc.co.uk
Remember , the Federal Reserve could spook your stock portfolio soon
Remember , the Federal Reserve could spook your stock portfolio soon. President Donald Trump May Force the Fed Hand -- but Not in the Way Youd Expect. President Donald Trump May Force the Fed Hand -- but Not in the Way Youd Expect.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, finance.yahoo.com, fool.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? - Yes at 14.0% with $850K traded.
Top volume remains in Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? - Yes.
Lead event
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? - Yes
Trading at 14.0% with $850K in volume.
Event leaders
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?) | 14.0% | $850K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?) | 42.0% | $331K
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?
Top volume: ↑ $150 | 3.4% | $133K
Top odds: ↑ $100 | 85.0%
Meta turns off Instagram private messaging encryption worldwide | Ariana News
Meta turns off Instagram private messaging encryption worldwide | Ariana News.
Sources: ariananews.af
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Which companies will be acquired before 2027? - Anthropic at 12.0% with $18K traded.
Top volume remains in Which companies will be acquired before 2027? - Anthropic.
Lead event
Which companies will be acquired before 2027? - Anthropic
Trading at 12.0% with $18K in volume.
Event leaders
Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
Top volume: Anthropic | 12.0% | $18K
Top odds: Cursor | 75.0%
Which company has the best AI model end of May?
Top volume & odds: Anthropic | 80.0% | $13K
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?) | 1.9% | $3K
Sources: nytimes.com, eastbaytimes.com, abc7news.com
🇦🇹 Eurovision 2026 : Sertab Declined Performing in Vienna
🇦🇹 Eurovision 2026 : Sertab Declined Performing in Vienna. Eurovision 101 : Most winning country , how it works in 2026. Eurovision 101 : Most winning country , how it works in 2026.
Sources: eurovoix.com, philstar.com, philstar.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - May 31 at 2.1% with $401K traded.
Top volume remains in Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - May 31.
Lead event
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - May 31
Trading at 2.1% with $401K in volume.
Event leaders
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume: May 31 | 2.1% | $401K
Top odds: December 31 | 18.0%
Elon Musk # tweets May 8 - May 15, 2026?
Top volume & odds: 80-99 | 3.5% | $79K
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 1.9% | $71K
Popular events
Sources: bloomberg.com, newsbtc.com, finance.yahoo.com
Soaring Oil Prices Arent Great for Bitcoin . Here Why Investors Shouldnt Panic .
Soaring Oil Prices Arent Great for Bitcoin . Here Why Investors Shouldnt Panic .. Bitcoin Bottom In ? 2 Key Resistance Zones To Monitor. Bitcoin Price To $1M ? VanEck Makes Bullish Five Year Prediction , Joining BitWise and Others.
Sources: fool.com, newsbtc.com, finance.yahoo.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? - May 31, 2026 at 39.0% with $205K traded.
Top volume remains in MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? - May 31, 2026.
Lead event
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? - May 31, 2026
Trading at 39.0% with $205K in volume.
Event leaders
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ?
Top volume: May 31, 2026 | 39.0% | $205K
Top odds: December 31, 2026 | 87.0%
Top volume: June 30, 2026 | 2.9% | $15K
Top odds: December 31, 2026 | 19.0%
Will Base launch a token by ___ ?
Top volume: June 30, 2026 | 2.3% | $11K
Top odds: December 31, 2026 | 37.0%
Popular events
Thunder strikes first against Lakers as Pistons down Cavs. Thunder strikes first against Lakers as Pistons down Cavs. Thunder strikes first against Lakers as Pistons down Cavs.
UCL Final : Martin Keown picks team he wants Arsenal to face between PSG , Bayern
UCL Final : Martin Keown picks team he wants Arsenal to face between PSG , Bayern. Simeone after being eliminated from the Champions League : Clear penalty on Griezmann. Bukayo Saka speaks after becoming a hero for Arsenal : Beautiful story , means a lot to us.
Sources: dailypost.ng, gazetaexpress.com, gazetaexpress.com
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Spurs | 68.0% | $274K
Top volume: Minnesota Timberwolves | 1.3% | $165K
Top odds: Oklahoma City Thunder | 61.0%
NBA Playoffs: Eastern Conference Champion
Top volume & odds: New York Knicks | 59.0% | $64K
Top volume: Montreal Canadiens | 9.4% | $26K
Top odds: Carolina Hurricanes | 36.0%
Popular events
Vol $274K
NHL Playoff Predictions - Hurricanes vs . Flyers Picks & Odds
NHL Playoff Predictions - Hurricanes vs . Flyers Picks & Odds. Philadelphia Flyers hope return home can fuel comeback against Carolina Hurricanes down 2 - 0. Blake overtime goal lifts the Hurricanes 3 - 2 over the Flyers for their second playoff series sweep – Baltimore Sun.
Sources: thespread.com, tsn.ca, baltimoresun.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes at 7.3% with $1M traded.
Top volume remains in Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?) | 7.3% | $1M
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
Top volume & odds: ↑3k | 64.0% | $251
Popular events
+$77,609
+$23,195
+$6,365
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
Leaderboard
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#2
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#4
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#5
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