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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" Event volume totals $23M across outcomes. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?)" at 6.2% and $0 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?)" at 24.0% and $684K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? - Yes
$0
Highest implied
NBA MVP - Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
98.5%
Top priced
NBA MVP - Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
98.5%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
NBA MVP - Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
98.5%
$60K
B1
Lead market: US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - May 31 leads the desk at 29.0% with $2M traded.
Lead stories
Harkin endorses Turek in Iowa Democratic Senate primary | Iowa Campaigns and Elections
Harkin endorses Turek in Iowa Democratic Senate primary | Iowa Campaigns and Elections. Congress seeks discussion in Parliament on China support to Pakistan in Operation Sindoor. Radev sets out plans for new Bulgarian government after election win.
Sources: thegazette.com, thehindu.com, yahoo.com
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? - Yes leads the desk at 24.0% with $684K traded.
Lead stories
Indian sailor dies in dhow fire near Strait of Hormuz , 17 crew members rescued
Indian sailor dies in dhow fire near Strait of Hormuz , 17 crew members rescued. No ships have passed through Strait of Hormuz in past 24h : Report. Strait Of Hormuz Sees Zero Ship Traffic Over Past 24 Hours , Says Report.
Sources: rediff.com, news.webindia123.com, newsx.com
B4
Lead market: Which company has best AI model end of June? - xAI leads the desk at 1.4% with $20K traded.
Lead stories
OpenAI Trial Highlights Criticism of Musk , Altman Management Styles
OpenAI Trial Highlights Criticism of Musk , Altman Management Styles. Can You Invest in Anthropic Pre - IPO ? Everything You Need to Know .. The Best AI Software Stock to Buy in 2026.
Sources: bloomberg.com, fool.com, fool.com
US said to suspect Nvidia chips smuggled to Alibaba via Thailand
US said to suspect Nvidia chips smuggled to Alibaba via Thailand. Here Why This Artificial Intelligence ( AI ) Stock Just Exploded Past Wall Street Most Bullish Price Target.
B5
Lead market: Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - May 31 leads the desk at 2.0% with $514K traded.
Lead stories
AMVCA 2026 Cultural Night : Stars celebrate African heritage
AMVCA 2026 Cultural Night : Stars celebrate African heritage. Students take the spotlight at Slick Rock student film festival. Unscripted : Met Gala one step on a journey toward viewing fashion as art [ entertainment column ].
Sources: theeagleonline.com.ng, abc30.com, lancasteronline.com
B6
Lead market: MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? - May 31, 2026 leads the desk at 41.0% with $192K traded.
Lead stories
Coinbase Q1 2026 Revenue Falls 31 % to $1 . 41 Billion in Major Wall Street Miss
Coinbase Q1 2026 Revenue Falls 31 % to $1 . 41 Billion in Major Wall Street Miss. Why Hyperliquid Strategies Keeps Buying HYPE Despite Losses.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, memeburn.com
Donald Trump news : Truth Social parent company loses $400M
Donald Trump news : Truth Social parent company loses $400M. How Buying Bitcoin Today Could Help You Retire a Millionaire. U . S . Dollar Collapse A $39 Trillion Debt Crisi Is Quietly Predicted To Trigger A Huge Bitcoin Price Boom To Rival....
Sources: ,
B7
Lead market: Sean Strickland leads the desk at 20.0% with $5M traded.
Lead stories
UFC 328 Main Event : Chimaev Vs Strickland Betting Odds & Line Movement
UFC 328 Main Event : Chimaev Vs Strickland Betting Odds & Line Movement. Khamzat Chimaev Calls Himself A Terrorist , Kicks Sean Strickland At UFC Presser. UFC Star Calls Conspiracy On Khamzat Chimaev Making Weight , Claims 328 Fight Is Rigged.
Sources: forbes.com, wrestlinginc.com, wrestlinginc.com
B8
Lead market: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 7.9% with $994K traded.
Lead stories
Hantavirus a concern as spring cleaning is around the corner - DiscoverEstevan . com - Local news , Weather , Sports....
Sources: discoverestevan.com
Renewables are smashing records in the united kingdom , halting fossil fuel price shocks from Iran war. Climate Scientist Uncovers Massive Global Emissions Data Errors in Major Climate Pollution Database. EU monitor warns of heat as El Nino looms.
Sources: ,
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
98.5%
$2K
Maine Democrats shelve criticism of national party Joe Baldacci endorsement. Wait , That Who Democrats Are Bringing Out to Flip Texas ?. Senate slipping away from Republicans as they labor to steal the House : report.
Sources: bangordailynews.com, townhall.com, alternet.org
Patty Pickens wins Republican nomination for Elkhart County Clerk
Patty Pickens wins Republican nomination for Elkhart County Clerk. Primary Election Results - Cleveland And NE Ohio. How Democrats could be the big winners in Texa GOP primary.
Sources: wsbt.com, wtam.iheart.com, dailykos.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - May 31 at 29.0% with $2M traded.
Top volume remains in US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - May 31.
Event leaders
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Top volume: Michelle Obama | 1.5% | $531K
Top odds: Gavin Newsom | 24.8%
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Top volume: Rand Paul | 1.1% | $490K
Top odds: J.D. Vance | 37.1%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?) | 22.0% | $319K
Popular events
8.3%
+0.2pp
$13M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $610M+1%
Presidential election
Event volume $575M+1%
Iran is trying to formalise its control over the Strait of Hormuz , but there are some obvious problems. Qatari LNG Tanker Transits Hormuz As U . S . Awaits Iran Response To Peace Deal. Senior Iranian lawmaker says bill to set up Hormuz legal regime ready.
Sources: abc.net.au, zerohedge.com, prokerala.com
Brensley : Hub cant balance budget on backs of veterans
Brensley : Hub cant balance budget on backs of veterans. Trump has quietly bought up to $337 million in bonds and his Fed pick Kevin Warsh could send their value soaring. Ding Dong , RCP8 . 5 Is Dead ! - Watts Up With That ?.
Sources: bostonherald.com, finance.yahoo.com, wattsupwiththat.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? - Yes at 24.0% with $684K traded.
Top volume remains in Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? - Yes.
Lead event
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? - Yes
Trading at 24.0% with $684K in volume.
Event leaders
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?) | 24.0% | $684K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?) | 1.9% | $680K
Top volume & odds: No change | 97.4% | $306K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?) | 53.0% | $260K
Popular events
Sources: bostonglobe.com, finance.yahoo.com
The Best AI Software Stock to Buy in 2026
The Best AI Software Stock to Buy in 2026. AI models can hack computers and self - replicate onto new machines , new research finds. Musk Tried to Recruit Sam Altman to Tesla in 2017.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, euronews.com, explosion.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Which company has best AI model end of June? - xAI at 1.4% with $20K traded.
Top volume remains in Which company has best AI model end of June? - xAI.
Event leaders
Which company has best AI model end of June?
Top volume: xAI | 1.4% | $20K
Top odds: Anthropic | 70.7%
Which company has the best AI model end of May?
Top volume & odds: Anthropic | 80.0% | $13K
Top volume & odds: 2.0T-2.5T | 33.0% | $6K
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12
Top volume: Super Heavy booster explodes? | 91.0% | $3K
Top odds: June 30 | 92.4%
Jesus Christ is not THE son of God : Hindu Americans defend Vivek Ramaswamy as old clip resurfaces. Here is modification of timeless , beautiful , old , truthful song , Love is the answer , written and performed origi.... Resurrection Worked In Reverse To Make Good Friday Good.
Sources: timesofindia.indiatimes.com, straight.com, patheos.com
Eurovision 2026 Semi - Finals experts Rylan , Angela Scanlon and Sara Cox tease sincerity , spectacle , and absolute.... Integrity costs something : Eurovision winners want Israel out of the contest. Eurovision Music Competition : Eurovision 2026 : From Regarde ! to My System , look into all 35 songs and contestants....
Sources: bbc.co.uk, middleeasteye.net, timesofindia.indiatimes.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - May 31 at 2.0% with $514K traded.
Top volume remains in Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - May 31.
Lead event
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - May 31
Trading at 2.0% with $514K in volume.
Event leaders
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume: May 31 | 2.0% | $514K
Top odds: December 31 | 18.0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 1.7% | $215K
Top volume & odds: Australia | 28.0% | $8K
Popular events
Bitcoin Miners Bag Profit : 3 , 400 BTC Flow Out Of Reserves Since April
Bitcoin Miners Bag Profit : 3 , 400 BTC Flow Out Of Reserves Since April. Michael Saylor says remarks about selling Bitcoin were intended to jam short - sellers and haters. Bitcoin Drops To 2 Cents ! Revolut Users Report Massive BTC Price Glitch.
Sources: newsbtc.com, finance.yahoo.com, newsbtc.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? - May 31, 2026 at 41.0% with $192K traded.
Top volume remains in MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? - May 31, 2026.
Lead event
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? - May 31, 2026
Trading at 41.0% with $192K in volume.
Event leaders
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ?
Top volume: May 31, 2026 | 41.0% | $192K
Top odds: December 31, 2026 | 88.0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?) | 9.3% | $14K
Popular events
NBA and Budweiser Bring BUDX NBA House to New Delhi With NBA Legends , Live Music and a Celebrity 3 - on - 3 Game. NBA and Budweiser Bring BUDX NBA House to New Delhi With NBA Legends , Live Music and a Celebrity 3 - on - 3 Game. Detroit Pistons vs Cleveland Cavaliers LIVE Score Updates in NBA Playoffs Game | 05 / 09 / 2026.
Sources: news.webindia123.com, aninews.in, vavel.com
The Thunder have owned the Lakers . But the Lakers still have LeBron James
The Thunder have owned the Lakers . But the Lakers still have LeBron James. Thunder run away with Game 1 , but Lakers show some fight : Takeaways. Lakers forced the Thunder into an off night and still lost . What can they do ?.
Sources: nytimes.com, nytimes.com, nytimes.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by Sean Strickland at 20.0% with $5M traded.
Top volume remains in Sean Strickland.
Event leaders
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)
Top volume: Sean Strickland | 20.0% | $5M
Top odds: Khamzat Chimaev | 81.0%
Top volume: Minnesota Timberwolves | 1.2% | $515K
Top odds: Oklahoma City Thunder | 61.0%
Top volume & odds: Thunder | 82.0% | $329K
Top volume & odds: PSG | 58.0% | $194K
Top volume: Carolina Hurricanes | 35.0% | $121K
Top odds: Colorado Avalanche | 38.1%
Popular events
Flyers beat East top seed Hurricanes 3 - 2 in SO and secure their first playoff berth since 2020
Flyers beat East top seed Hurricanes 3 - 2 in SO and secure their first playoff berth since 2020. Flyers beat Hurricanes in 3 - 2 in a shootout and secure their first playoff berth since 2020. Flyers beat East top seed Hurricanes 3 - 2 in SO and secure their first playoff berth since 2020 | News , Sports , Jobs.
Sources: wral.com, wnep.com, mauinews.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes at 7.9% with $994K traded.
Top volume remains in Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?) | 7.9% | $994K
Popular events
+$77,609
+$23,195
+$6,575
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
Leaderboard
#1
Awaiting data
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#2
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#3
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#5
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