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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" Event volume totals $23M across outcomes. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?)" at 6.0% and $0 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?)" at 30.0% and $988K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? - Yes
$0
Highest implied
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...? - May 31
98.9%
Top priced
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...? - May 31
98.9%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? - Yes leads the desk at 22.0% with $3M traded.
Lead stories
Oshiomhole Seeks Ban On MTN , DSTV , Over Xenophobic Attacks On Nigerians
Oshiomhole Seeks Ban On MTN , DSTV , Over Xenophobic Attacks On Nigerians. Murkowski spearheads GOP showdown over Iran. Xenophobic attacks : Akpabio to lead NAssembly committee to SAfrica.
Sources: informationng.com, yahoo.com, thenationonlineng.net
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? - Yes leads the desk at 30.0% with $988K traded.
Lead stories
Iran Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei says new management of Strait of Hormuz will bring calm
Iran Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei says new management of Strait of Hormuz will bring calm. Trump admin pitches new international coalition to coordinate reopening of Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices hit wartime high as Iran vows to keep control of Hormuz strait.
Sources: tribune.com.pk, nypost.com, irishtimes.com
B4
Lead market: Which company has the best AI model end of May? - OpenAI leads the desk at 2.7% with $18K traded.
Lead stories
Meta bets $21 billion on AI infrastructure in CoreWeave deal
Meta bets $21 billion on AI infrastructure in CoreWeave deal.
Sources: thenews.com.pk
Spotify isnt the only service now integrated with Anthropic Claude
Spotify isnt the only service now integrated with Anthropic Claude. Anthropic adds routines to redesigned Claude Code , here how it works. Anthropic releases 9 Claude connectors for creative tools , including Blender and Adobe.
Sources: 9to5mac.com, 9to5mac.com,
B5
Lead market: Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes leads the desk at 1.7% with $500K traded.
Lead stories
Ready Hearts Await The Return Of Christ
Ready Hearts Await The Return Of Christ. Jesus Christ is not THE son of God : Hindu Americans defend Vivek Ramaswamy as old clip resurfaces. Here is modification of timeless , beautiful , old , truthful song , Love is the answer , written and performed origi....
Sources: patheos.com, timesofindia.indiatimes.com, straight.com
B6
Lead market: MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? - June 30, 2026 leads the desk at 23.8% with $492K traded.
Lead stories
Alberta Pension Powerhouse Pivots to Bitcoin : AIMCo Discloses Major MicroStrategy Stake
Alberta Pension Powerhouse Pivots to Bitcoin : AIMCo Discloses Major MicroStrategy Stake. Jim Cramer on Strategy Inc : You Want to Own Bitcoin ? Buy Bitcoin. Another retirement fund discloses $219M stake in MicroStrategy.
Sources: econotimes.com, insidermonkey.com, finance.yahoo.com
B7
Lead market: 76ers leads the desk at 34.0% with $1M traded.
Lead stories
Knicks make things look easy , send Hawks home in historic fashion : Game 6 takeaways
Knicks make things look easy , send Hawks home in historic fashion : Game 6 takeaways. Knick 47 - point halftime lead vs . Hawks sets record for largest in NBA playoff history. NBA Playoff Bracket 2026 , Updated Picture , Schedule After Knicks Eliminate Hawks.
Sources: nytimes.com, nytimes.com, bleacherreport.com
B8
Lead market: Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑10k leads the desk at 7.4% with $527 traded.
Lead stories
Climate groups press lawmakers to prioritize nature - based solutions
Climate groups press lawmakers to prioritize nature - based solutions. CO₂e emissions in the Rotterdam port area rose in 2025 due to increased electricity generation for Europe. Carolinas Face Top Hurricane Risk as 2026 Season Begins in 31 Days.
Sources: bignewsnetwork.com, hellenicshippingnews.com, sunny943.com
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
98.6%
$3K
NBA MVP - Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
98.4%
$57K
Iran IRGC Says Strait of Hormuz Opens When U . S . Is Neutralized – PJ Media
Iran IRGC Says Strait of Hormuz Opens When U . S . Is Neutralized – PJ Media. Iran Could Be Carrying Out Covert Operations Against Targets in the West. IRAN WAR WEEK 10 , day 6 : Rubio pulls the pin . Project Freedom paused ..
Sources: pjmedia.com, townhall.com, dailykos.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? - Yes at 22.0% with $3M traded.
Top volume remains in Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? - Yes.
Event leaders
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?) | 22.0% | $3M
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?) | 5.0% | $1M
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Top volume: May 31 | 8.0% | $818K
Top odds: December 31 | 28.0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?) | 2.3% | $554K
Popular events
8.1%
-0.1pp
$13M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $604M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $570M0%
Could a prolonged conflict between the US and Iran threaten another vital link ?. India - linked tanker Sarv Shakti carrying cooking fuel crosses Strait of Hormuz. Iran supreme leader says Gulf future without US , new Hormuz rules to boost stability , economy – Middle East Monitor.
Sources: scmp.com, moneycontrol.com, middleeastmonitor.com
Iran drafts plan to regulate Strait of Hormuz transit : Deputy parliament speaker
Iran drafts plan to regulate Strait of Hormuz transit : Deputy parliament speaker. Iran should beware the consequences of its blackmail.
Sources: aa.com.tr, arabnews.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? - Yes at 30.0% with $988K traded.
Top volume remains in Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? - Yes.
Lead event
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? - Yes
Trading at 30.0% with $988K in volume.
Event leaders
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?) | 30.0% | $988K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?) | 55.0% | $721K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?) | 3.3% | $639K
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?
Top volume: ↑ $200 | 1.1% | $411K
Top odds: ↓ $85 | 62.0%
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April?
Top volume & odds: 40+ | 1.5% | $315K
XAI Will Breakeven by Renting AI Data Center to Anthropic
XAI Will Breakeven by Renting AI Data Center to Anthropic. CNA Explains : What is frontier AI and how Anthropic Mythos is reshaping cybersecurity. Is xAI a neocloud now ? | TechCrunch.
Sources: nextbigfuture.com, channelnewsasia.com, techcrunch.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Which company has the best AI model end of May? - OpenAI at 2.7% with $18K traded.
Top volume remains in Which company has the best AI model end of May? - OpenAI.
Lead event
Which company has the best AI model end of May? - OpenAI
Trading at 2.7% with $18K in volume.
Event leaders
Which company has the best AI model end of May?
Top volume: OpenAI | 2.7% | $18K
Top odds: Anthropic | 75.0%
Which company has best AI model end of June?
Top volume: OpenAI | 8.0% | $13K
Top odds: Anthropic | 64.7%
Top volume & odds: December 31, 2026 | 27.0% | $6K
What will SpaceX's public ticker be?
Top volume: $SEX | 1.8% | $5K
Top odds: Other (incl $SPCX) | 57.0%
Popular events
Jaafar Jackson pays tribute to Michael Jackson at Met Gala 2026. BLACKPINK Lisa makes history as first K - pop star on Met Gala 2026 host committee. A - List Cameos You Mightve Missed in The Devil Wears Prada 2.
Sources: news.az, moneycontrol.com, arynews.tv
How to vote in the Eurovision Song Contest 2026
How to vote in the Eurovision Song Contest 2026. Eurovision 2026 : Delta Goodrem reveals how Olivia Newton - John is guiding her. The Odyssey | File 770.
Sources: sbs.com.au, theage.com.au, file770.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes at 1.7% with $500K traded.
Top volume remains in Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes.
Event leaders
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 1.7% | $500K
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 20.0% | $299K
Elon Musk # tweets May 5 - May 12, 2026?
Top volume & odds: 80-99 | 3.0% | $61K
Top volume & odds: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 98.4% | $57K
Popular events
Key Bitcoin Metric Suggest BTC Price Has Room for Further Expansion. Bitcoin Has Entered Its Most Dangerous Quarter , And This Expert Is Warning Investors. Bitcoin Treasury Corporation : Bitcoin Treasury Corporation Provides April Update on Normal Course Issuer Bid.
Sources: cointelegraph.com, newsbtc.com, finanznachrichten.de
Trump brothers - backed American Bitcoin narrows loss on stronger mining revenue
Trump brothers - backed American Bitcoin narrows loss on stronger mining revenue. Bitcoin News Today : Michael Saylor Never Sell Bitcoin Doctrine Just Got Quietly Abandoned by the Company That Create.... Bitcoin USD price prediction after 3 - month high : Bitcoin price today hits 3 - month high after US - Iran peace agr....
Sources: marketscreener.com, coinspeaker.com, economictimes.indiatimes.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? - June 30, 2026 at 23.8% with $492K traded.
Top volume remains in MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? - June 30, 2026.
Lead event
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? - June 30, 2026
Trading at 23.8% with $492K in volume.
Event leaders
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ?
Top volume: June 30, 2026 | 23.8% | $492K
Top odds: December 31, 2026 | 52.0%
Top volume: June 30, 2026 | 3.5% | $51K
Top odds: December 31, 2026 | 18.0%
Popular events
Bayern Munich v PSG : are Harry Kane , Luis Diaz and Michael Olise the best front three ?. UCL Final : Martin Keown picks team he wants Arsenal to face between PSG , Bayern. What to Know About the 2026 Champions League Final.
Sources: bbc.com, dailypost.ng, english.aawsat.com
Timberwolves vs . Spurs Game 2 Time , TV & Stream – May 6
Timberwolves vs . Spurs Game 2 Time , TV & Stream – May 6. Timberwolves vs . Spurs Game 2 Time , TV & Stream – May 6. Timberwolves vs . Spurs Game 2 Time , TV & Stream – May 6.
Sources: kxno.iheart.com, mykfan.iheart.com, sportsradio957.iheart.com
Event leaders
Top volume: Minnesota Wild | 2.5% | $118K
Top odds: Colorado Avalanche | 38.5%
Top volume: San Antonio Spurs | 15.4% | $81K
Top odds: Oklahoma City Thunder | 63.0%
Popular events
Carolinas Face Top Hurricane Risk as 2026 Season Begins in 31 Days. Microsoft , looking to build data centers , considers dumping climate goal , report states. Climate Change Commission report urges decisive action as major risks loom.
Sources: foxy99.com, mashable.com, rnz.co.nz
Carlsson , Terry lead Ducks to 5 - 2 win in Game 6 , eliminating the 2 - time conference champ Oilers – KTBB News , W....
Sources: ktbb.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑10k at 7.4% with $527 traded.
Top volume remains in Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑10k.
Event leaders
Popular events
+$77,609
+$23,195
+$12,596
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
Leaderboard
#1
Awaiting data
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#2
Awaiting data
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#3
Awaiting data
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#4
Awaiting data
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#5
Awaiting data
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