Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" Event volume totals $23M across outcomes. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?)" at 6.1% and $0 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?)" at 3.2% and $3M 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? - Yes
$0
Highest implied
What will happen before GTA VI? - Drake releases Iceman
98.8%
Top priced
What will happen before GTA VI? - Drake releases Iceman
98.8%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? - Yes leads the desk at 3.3% with $1M traded.
Lead stories
San Antonio Iranian - American Community Rallies Against Tehran as Trump Rejects Latest Proposal
San Antonio Iranian - American Community Rallies Against Tehran as Trump Rejects Latest Proposal. U . S . Sanctions Tighten Grip on Iran - China Oil Trade - United States Department of State. Iranian - Americans want IRGC gone.
Sources: breitbart.com, state.gov, nypost.com
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? - Yes leads the desk at 3.2% with $3M traded.
Lead stories
Well attack any US forces in Strait of Hormuz - Iran warns
Well attack any US forces in Strait of Hormuz - Iran warns. Two commercial ships with US flag successfully pass the Strait of Hormuz : Trump. Most shipping blocked at Hormuz despite US assurances.
Sources: dailypost.ng, albawaba.com, middleeasteye.net
Iran attacks cargo ship in Strait of Hormuz
Iran attacks cargo ship in Strait of Hormuz. Pentagon Hails Two US Merchant Ships Safely Exiting Strait , As Iran Vows Attack On US Navy Entering Hormuz. Trump says US will guide stranded ships out of Strait of Hormuz : Get on with their business.
B4
Lead market: Which company has the best AI model end of May? - Anthropic leads the desk at 80.0% with $26K traded.
Lead stories
Meta bets $21 billion on AI infrastructure in CoreWeave deal
Meta bets $21 billion on AI infrastructure in CoreWeave deal.
Sources: thenews.com.pk
Meet 3 Upcoming Monster Artificial Intelligence ( AI ) IPOs That Will Soon Join Meta , Tesla , and Broadcom in the $1.... AI chatbots continue feeding into our worst delusions , finds worrying report on ChatGPT and Grok. Why Anthropic Draws Line Between Who Can Access Opus , Mythos.
Sources: fool.com,
B5
Lead market: Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes leads the desk at 2.4% with $367K traded.
Lead stories
Jesus Christ is not THE son of God : Hindu Americans defend Vivek Ramaswamy as old clip resurfaces
Jesus Christ is not THE son of God : Hindu Americans defend Vivek Ramaswamy as old clip resurfaces. Is Donald Trump Worse Than Joe Biden ? POTUS Blunders on Fox News Over Bizarre Jesus - Doctor Image Row. Deeply Fearful : Trump Spiritual Adviser Paula White - Cain Issues Chilling Warning Over Secret White House Decisions.
Sources: timesofindia.indiatimes.com, ibtimes.co.uk, ibtimes.co.uk
B6
Lead market: What price will Bitcoin hit in May? - ↑ 90,000 leads the desk at 23.0% with $217K traded.
Lead stories
Bitcoin Rallies to $80K , Highest Price Since January
Bitcoin Rallies to $80K , Highest Price Since January. Bitcoin Analysts Flip Bullish at $80K : Key BTC Price Levels to Watch Next. Bitcoin Price Flips Volatile on Iran Events as $80 , 000 Battle Heats Up.
Sources: cointelegraph.com, cointelegraph.com, cointelegraph.com
Should You Dump Bitcoin for Stocks After the S & P 500 Hit a New Record on Apple $100 Billion Buyback ?. Will Bitcoin Ever Be More Valuable Than Apple ? You Might Be Surprised at What Prediction Markets Say .. Will Bitcoin Ever Be More Valuable Than Apple ? You Might Be Surprised at What Prediction Markets Say ..
B7
Lead market: Timberwolves leads the desk at 23.0% with $698K traded.
Lead stories
Timberwolves vs . Spurs Game 1 Time , TV & Stream – May 4
Timberwolves vs . Spurs Game 1 Time , TV & Stream – May 4. Timberwolves vs . Spurs Game 1 Time , TV & Stream – May 4. Spurs vs . Timberwolves series odds , prediction : Anthony Edward return changes everything.
Sources: sportsradio957.iheart.com, khey1380.iheart.com, nypost.com
B8
Lead market: Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑3k leads the desk at 64.0% with $41 traded.
Lead stories
Warm waters and potential Super El Niño could supercharge start to Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Warm waters and potential Super El Niño could supercharge start to Eastern Pacific hurricane season. Making Climate Action Work for Hawaii - Hawaii Business Magazine. DEC recertifies Hamilton town , village as Climate Smart.
Sources: postcourier.com.pg, hawaiibusiness.com, oneidadispatch.com
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kyiv hits Russian oil sites as eight killed in both countries. Vladimir Putin is Preparing to Use Tactical Nuclear Weapon in Ukraine. The impact of Russia intensifying attacks on civilians in Ukraine : united kingdom statement to the OSCE.
Sources: dunyanews.tv, radaronline.com, globalsecurity.org
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? - Yes at 3.3% with $1M traded.
Top volume remains in Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? - Yes.
Event leaders
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?) | 3.3% | $1M
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?) | 6.5% | $885K
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?) | 30.0% | $494K
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?) | 6.0% | $269K
Popular events
8.3%
-0.2pp
$13M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $599M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $564M0%
Sources: nypost.com, zerohedge.com, nypost.com
Why energy lenders arent yet seeing a surge in oil loans
Why energy lenders arent yet seeing a surge in oil loans. A real turning point - or just more noise ?. PSX opens strong as KSE - 100 gains over 3 , 500 points.
Sources: americanbanker.com, marketscreener.com, pakobserver.net
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? - Yes at 3.2% with $3M traded.
Top volume remains in Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? - Yes.
Lead event
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? - Yes
Trading at 3.2% with $3M in volume.
Event leaders
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?) | 3.2% | $3M
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?) | 16.0% | $1M
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?
Top volume: ↑ $200 | 2.4% | $463K
Top odds: ↓ $100 | 96.0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?) | 47.0% | $271K
Musk vs OpenAI trial enters second week
Musk vs OpenAI trial enters second week. Musk vs OpenAI Trial Enters Second Week with Key Testimony. Musk vs OpenAI trial enters second week.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, punchng.com, omanobserver.om
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Which company has the best AI model end of May? - Anthropic at 80.0% with $26K traded.
Top volume remains in Which company has the best AI model end of May? - Anthropic.
Lead event
Which company has the best AI model end of May? - Anthropic
Trading at 80.0% with $26K in volume.
Event leaders
Which company has the best AI model end of May?
Top volume & odds: Anthropic | 80.0% | $26K
Top volume & odds: December 31, 2026 | 21.9% | $12K
Which company has best AI model end of June?
Top volume: OpenAI | 8.0% | $11K
Top odds: Anthropic | 66.0%
Top volume & odds: SpaceX | 94.1% | $11K
When is Eurovision 2026 and final date as latest winner odds revealed | TV & Radio | Showbiz & TV. BBC unveils its Eurovision 2026 coverage – including Scott Mill replacement. Scott Mill Eurovision replacement confirmed after BBC sacking.
Sources: express.co.uk, aol.co.uk, manchestereveningnews.co.uk
Neon Boards I Want My MTV From Patti Cake$ Filmmaker Geremy Jasper
Neon Boards I Want My MTV From Patti Cake$ Filmmaker Geremy Jasper. The Devil Wears Prada 2 box office : Meryl Streep film dethrones Michael , recovers budget in 24 hours ; mints $233 m.... Timothée Chalamet Marty Supreme Becomes HBO Max Top Streaming Hit.
Sources: deadline.com, hindustantimes.com, aceshowbiz.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes at 2.4% with $367K traded.
Top volume remains in Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes.
Event leaders
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 2.4% | $367K
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 18.0% | $42K
Top volume & odds: Aubry Bracco | 90.0% | $14K
Popular events
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, finance.yahoo.com, fool.com
FxWirePro - Key Crypto Updates - EconoTimes
FxWirePro - Key Crypto Updates - EconoTimes.
Sources: econotimes.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by What price will Bitcoin hit in May? - ↑ 90,000 at 23.0% with $217K traded.
Top volume remains in What price will Bitcoin hit in May? - ↑ 90,000.
Event leaders
Top volume: June 30, 2026 | 3.2% | $69K
Top odds: December 31, 2026 | 18.0%
Printr public sale total commitments?
Top volume & odds: >$3M | 5.1% | $48K
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?) | 8.6% | $29K
Popular events
Why the workouts of Formula 1 drivers might help computer users with tech neck – Sun Sentinel. Why the workouts of Formula 1 drivers might help computer users with tech neck. George Russell taken aback by impressive McLaren , Ferrari improvement at F1 Miami Grand Prix.
Sources: sun-sentinel.com, news-gazette.com, crash.net
Rasmus Dahlin , Gabriel Landeskog , and Jonathan Toews finalists for Bill Masterton Memorial Trophy
Rasmus Dahlin , Gabriel Landeskog , and Jonathan Toews finalists for Bill Masterton Memorial Trophy. Four reasons the Ducks could beat the Golden Knights in 2nd - round series. May the 4th be with the ballpark : Inside MLB Star Wars obsession.
Sources: russianmachineneverbreaks.com, presstelegram.com, tsn.ca
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by Timberwolves at 23.0% with $698K traded.
Top volume remains in Timberwolves.
Event leaders
Top volume: Anaheim Ducks | 4.0% | $91K
Top odds: Colorado Avalanche | 30.1%
Popular events
Vol $698K
Bengaluru rains flood iconic Church Street bookstore , over 4000 books destroyed : This feels terrible.
Sources: hindustantimes.com
Carlsson , Terry lead Ducks to 5 - 2 win in Game 6 , eliminating the 2 - time conference champ Oilers – KTBB News , W.... Ryan Poehling scores early in OT , Ducks push Oilers to the brink with 4 - 3 win in Game 4 – KTBB News , Weather , Talk.
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑3k at 64.0% with $41 traded.
Top volume remains in Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑3k.
Event leaders
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
Top volume & odds: ↑3k | 64.0% | $41
Popular events
+$77,609
+$23,195
+$7,941
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
Leaderboard
#1
Awaiting data
n/a
#2
Awaiting data
n/a
#3
Awaiting data
n/a
#4
Awaiting data
n/a
#5
Awaiting data
n/a