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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" Event volume totals $23M across outcomes. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?)" at 5.8% and $0 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?)" at 21.0% and $846K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? - Yes
$0
Highest implied
What will happen before GTA VI? - Drake releases Iceman
98.9%
Top priced
What will happen before GTA VI? - Drake releases Iceman
98.9%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? - Yes leads the desk at 2.8% with $1M traded.
Lead stories
Strait of Hormuz : US threatens shipping firms with sanctions if they pay Iran tolls
Strait of Hormuz : US threatens shipping firms with sanctions if they pay Iran tolls. There Are No Moderate : Regime Change in Iran Must Again Be a Priority for the Trump Administration. Have We Broken Iran Will Yet ? - American Thinker.
Sources: bbc.co.uk, gatestoneinstitute.org, americanthinker.com
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? - Yes leads the desk at 21.0% with $846K traded.
Lead stories
Iran attacks cargo ship in Strait of Hormuz
Iran attacks cargo ship in Strait of Hormuz. Trump says US will guide stranded ships out of Strait of Hormuz : Get on with their business. US will help free up ships stuck in Strait of Hormuz , says Trump.
Sources: nypost.com, nypost.com, lbc.co.uk
Recent inflation data was bad news , Fed Goolsbee says
Recent inflation data was bad news , Fed Goolsbee says. The Fed As Inflation Fighter Is Rooted In Phillips Curve Mysticism. The Fed subtly signaled that only rate cuts are on the table . Some Fed officials are crying foul.
B4
Lead market: Which company has the best AI model end of May? - Google leads the desk at 19.0% with $34K traded.
Lead stories
Meta bets $21 billion on AI infrastructure in CoreWeave deal
Meta bets $21 billion on AI infrastructure in CoreWeave deal.
Sources: thenews.com.pk
OpenAI Reportedly Missed Revenue and User Targets -- These 2 Stocks Could Be Big Winners
OpenAI Reportedly Missed Revenue and User Targets -- These 2 Stocks Could Be Big Winners. OpenAI Reportedly Missed Revenue and User Targets -- These 2 Stocks Could Be Big Winners. Elon Musk xAI to soon bring Grok Voice mode to Apple CarPlay , ETAuto.
Sources: fool.com, ,
B5
Lead market: Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - May 31 leads the desk at 2.2% with $51K traded.
Lead stories
Devil Wears Prada 2 takes top spot in N . American box office
Devil Wears Prada 2 takes top spot in N . American box office. Devil Wears Prada 2 takes top spot in N . America box office. The Devil Wears Prada 2 box office collections day 2 : Meryl Streep and Anne Hathaway film grows 5 . 3 %; Crosses Rs....
Sources: freemalaysiatoday.com, insidenova.com, timesofindia.indiatimes.com
B6
Lead market: What price will Bitcoin hit in May? - ↑ 100,000 leads the desk at 2.1% with $41K traded.
Lead stories
Bitcoin Price Yet To Bottom Based On MVRV Bands $43K Still Possible ?
Bitcoin Price Yet To Bottom Based On MVRV Bands $43K Still Possible ?. Analyst Predicts Exactly When To Sell Bitcoin For The Most Return. Bitcoin Posts Strongest Monthly Gain In 12 months In April.
Sources: newsbtc.com, newsbtc.com, cointelegraph.com
Bitcoin Clings To Key Support : EMA Reclaim Vs $78 , 000 Resistance Showdown
Bitcoin Clings To Key Support : EMA Reclaim Vs $78 , 000 Resistance Showdown. Stock Market Today , May 1 : Riot Platforms Jumps After AI Data Center Revenue Beats Estimates. Top 3 Cryptos to Buy Now Including Pepeto as ETH and ADA Face.
B7
Lead market: 2026 NHL Stanley Cup Champion - Philadelphia Flyers leads the desk at 2.6% with $12K traded.
Lead stories
Drive Fore Kids announces field of competitors
Drive Fore Kids announces field of competitors. Carlsson , Terry lead Ducks to 5 - 2 win in Game 6 , eliminating the 2 - time conference champ Oilers. NHL Playoffs Boost : Any Canadian Team to Advance Past Rd 1 +100 at BET99.
Sources: wmtw.com, kob.com, rotowire.com
Ferrari bemoan a challenging Sunday on both sides of the garage at the Miami Grand Prix
Ferrari bemoan a challenging Sunday on both sides of the garage at the Miami Grand Prix. Miami Grand Prix Preview : Key Storylines , Full Schedule As F1 Returns to United States. Tackling myths about cash pay in construction.
B8
Lead market: How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026? - 5–7 leads the desk at 1.9% with $124 traded.
Lead stories
Bengaluru rains flood iconic Church Street bookstore , over 4000 books destroyed : This feels terrible.
Sources: hindustantimes.com
Sorry , Los Angeles Times , Climate Change Isnt Driving Georgia Wildfires
Sorry , Los Angeles Times , Climate Change Isnt Driving Georgia Wildfires. Climate and Energy News : Are fossil fuel interests losing now ?. China reaffirms support for Kingdom environmental protection measures.
Sources: ,
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
UK Summons Iranian Ambassador Over Embassy Unacceptable Comments on Social Media. UK summons Iranian ambassador over embassy unacceptable comments on social media. UK summons Iranian ambassador over unacceptable social media comments.
Sources: english.aawsat.com, yahoo.com, arabnews.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? - Yes at 2.8% with $1M traded.
Top volume remains in Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? - Yes.
Event leaders
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?) | 2.8% | $1M
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Top volume: May 31 | 9.0% | $207K
Top odds: December 31 | 28.0%
Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?
Top volume & odds: May 31 | 30.0% | $184K
Popular events
Vol $207K
8.5%
-0.1pp
$13M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $597M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $563M0%
Sources: cnbc.com, forbes.com, edition.cnn.com
Historic halt : Kuwait exports no crude oil in April , first since 1991 Gulf War
Historic halt : Kuwait exports no crude oil in April , first since 1991 Gulf War. TSX : SU Forum Post | liljohnnyjoke - 36987934 | OPEC to increase production. Crude Prices Fall on Hopes for US - Iran Negotiations.
Sources: siasat.com, stockhouse.com, finance.yahoo.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? - Yes at 21.0% with $846K traded.
Top volume remains in Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? - Yes.
Lead event
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? - Yes
Trading at 21.0% with $846K in volume.
Event leaders
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?) | 21.0% | $846K
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?
Top volume & odds: ↑ $105 | 90.0% | $62K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?) | 5.0% | $31K
Popular events
AI did not just hallucinate my wife , it stereotyped her
AI did not just hallucinate my wife , it stereotyped her. iOS 27 releasing soon : Compatible iPhones , massive Siri overhaul , and deep AI camera integration. Amid growing calls to limit teen use of AI chatbots , are parental controls enough ?.
Sources: taipeitimes.com, livemint.com, cbc.ca
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Which company has the best AI model end of May? - Google at 19.0% with $34K traded.
Top volume remains in Which company has the best AI model end of May? - Google.
Lead event
Which company has the best AI model end of May? - Google
Trading at 19.0% with $34K in volume.
Event leaders
Which company has the best AI model end of May?
Top volume: Google | 19.0% | $34K
Top odds: Anthropic | 79.0%
Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
Top volume: Lovable | 20.0% | $10K
Top odds: Caesars Entertainment | 78.0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ?
Top volume & odds: >$1T | 93.6% | $3K
Popular events
Delta Goodrem Reworks Five Covers Across Stage , TV , and Soundtracks. 🇳🇱 Netherlands : First Part of Final Auditions for Junior Songfestival 2026 Takes Place. 🇳🇱 Netherlands : Seventeen Singers Compete in the Final Auditions for Junior Songfestival 2026.
Sources: el-balad.com, eurovoix.com, eurovoix.com
Many Survivor Fans Suddenly Think An Unexpected Player Might Win Season 50
Many Survivor Fans Suddenly Think An Unexpected Player Might Win Season 50. Exclusive | Survivor 50 star Stephenie LaGrossa details warning to Cirie Fields during unseen fight. Rob Cesternino Went Off About His Least Favorite Survivor Tradition , ( But Ill Defend It ).
Sources: cinemablend.com, pagesix.com, cinemablend.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - May 31 at 2.2% with $51K traded.
Top volume remains in Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - May 31.
Lead event
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - May 31
Trading at 2.2% with $51K in volume.
Event leaders
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume: May 31 | 2.2% | $51K
Top odds: December 31 | 18.0%
Top volume & odds: Aubry Bracco | 90.0% | $20K
GTA VI released before June 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (GTA VI released before June 2026?) | 1.1% | $13K
Elon Musk # tweets May 5 - May 12, 2026?
Top volume: Elon Musk # tweets May 5 - May 12, 2026? | 2.0% | $10K
Top odds: Elon Musk # tweets May 5 - May 12, 2026? | 17.0%
Popular events
Sources: newsbtc.com, finance.yahoo.com, openpr.com
FxWirePro - Key Crypto Updates - EconoTimes
FxWirePro - Key Crypto Updates - EconoTimes.
Sources: econotimes.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by What price will Bitcoin hit in May? - ↑ 100,000 at 2.1% with $41K traded.
Top volume remains in What price will Bitcoin hit in May? - ↑ 100,000.
Event leaders
Top volume: June 30, 2026 | 3.4% | $13K
Top odds: December 31, 2026 | 18.0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?) | 9.1% | $13K
Popular events
Sources: grandprix247.com, si.com, cantechletter.com
Max Verstappen gives Red Bull verdict after total passenger turnaround
Max Verstappen gives Red Bull verdict after total passenger turnaround. Lando Norris gives driver verdict after FIA rule changes come into force. Miami F1 Grand Prix start time moved three hours earlier due predicted storms.
Sources: planetf1.com, planetf1.com, abc.net.au
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by 2026 NHL Stanley Cup Champion - Philadelphia Flyers at 2.6% with $12K traded.
Top volume remains in 2026 NHL Stanley Cup Champion - Philadelphia Flyers.
Event leaders
Top volume: Philadelphia Flyers | 2.6% | $12K
Top odds: Colorado Avalanche | 31.1%
Top volume & odds: Bayern Munich | 32.0% | $5K
Top volume: Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 2.7% | $1K
Top odds: Kylian Mbappe | 59.0%
Popular events
Carlsson , Terry lead Ducks to 5 - 2 win in Game 6 , eliminating the 2 - time conference champ Oilers – KTBB News , W.... Ryan Poehling scores early in OT , Ducks push Oilers to the brink with 4 - 3 win in Game 4 – KTBB News , Weather , Talk.
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026? - 5–7 at 1.9% with $124 traded.
Top volume remains in How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026? - 5–7.
Event leaders
Popular events
+$77,609
+$23,195
+$7,948
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
Leaderboard
#1
Awaiting data
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#2
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#3
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#4
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#5
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