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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" Event volume totals $23M across outcomes. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?)" at 5.9% and $0 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?)" at 5.0% and $273K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? - Yes
$0
Highest implied
Maine Democratic Senate Primary Winner - Graham Platner
98.9%
Top priced
Maine Democratic Senate Primary Winner - Graham Platner
98.9%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? - Yes leads the desk at 2.4% with $505K traded.
Lead stories
Strait of Hormuz : US threatens shipping firms with sanctions if they pay Iran tolls
Strait of Hormuz : US threatens shipping firms with sanctions if they pay Iran tolls. Iran could see another wave of protests soon . And this time regime supporters may too join. To the Trump Administration : Beware the So - Called Moderates by Majid Rafizadeh.
Sources: bbc.co.uk, theweek.in, ruthfullyyours.com
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? - Yes leads the desk at 5.0% with $273K traded.
Lead stories
Trump says Iran in state of collapse , wants Strait of Hormuz opened as soon as possible
Trump says Iran in state of collapse , wants Strait of Hormuz opened as soon as possible. Contradictory voices from Tehran on Hormuz make peace process tough , Iranian lawmaker calls for tolls in Strait. Iran Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei says new management of Strait of Hormuz will bring calm.
Sources: moneycontrol.com, aninews.in, tribune.com.pk
B4
Lead market: Which company has the best AI model end of May? - OpenAI leads the desk at 2.1% with $44K traded.
Lead stories
SalesCloser Secures U . S . Patent for AI - Powered Conversational Workflow Technology
SalesCloser Secures U . S . Patent for AI - Powered Conversational Workflow Technology.
Sources: manilatimes.net
Microsoft no longer has exclusive access to OpenAI tech
Microsoft no longer has exclusive access to OpenAI tech. Musk takes the stand in court battle against OpenAI and Altman. Pentagon inks AI procurement deals with seven companies , leaves out Anthropic.
Sources: bnnbloomberg.ca,
B5
Lead market: Eurovision Winner 2026 - Finland leads the desk at 33.8% with $330K traded.
Lead stories
Delta Goodrem Reworks Five Covers Across Stage , TV , and Soundtracks
Delta Goodrem Reworks Five Covers Across Stage , TV , and Soundtracks. 🇳🇱 Netherlands : First Part of Final Auditions for Junior Songfestival 2026 Takes Place. 🇳🇱 Netherlands : Seventeen Singers Compete in the Final Auditions for Junior Songfestival 2026.
Sources: el-balad.com, eurovoix.com, eurovoix.com
Luka Doncic Snubbed as MVP Finalist ? NBA Fans React as Lakers Star Not Top 3 Despite Exemption
Luka Doncic Snubbed as MVP Finalist ? NBA Fans React as Lakers Star Not Top 3 Despite Exemption. Nikola Jokic looks set to miss out on MVP after record - breaking season. Wembanyama a finalist for NBA defensive player of the year , Edwards a finalist for clutch player.
B6
Lead market: What price will Bitcoin hit in May? - ↓ 60,000 leads the desk at 6.0% with $123K traded.
Lead stories
Bitcoin and ethereum price today , Monday , April 27 , 2026 : Prices hold ahead of potential peace talks and Fed meeting. It Time Bitcoin Suddenly Braced For Price Shock After Surprise BlackRock Flip. Bitcoin Price Yet To Bottom Based On MVRV Bands $43K Still Possible ?.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, forbes.com, newsbtc.com
B7
Lead market: Flyers leads the desk at 8.0% with $706K traded.
Lead stories
Flyers vs . Hurricanes Series Prediction and Odds ( Carolina Favored To Take Down Philadelphia )
Flyers vs . Hurricanes Series Prediction and Odds ( Carolina Favored To Take Down Philadelphia ). Philadelphia Flyers visit Carolina Hurricanes to open the second round. Flyers vs . Hurricanes Prediction & Picks - NHL Playoffs Second Round Game 1.
Sources: si.com, abc11.com, 1049foxsports.iheart.com
B8
Lead market: Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑3k leads the desk at 64.0% with $501 traded.
Lead stories
Sorry , Los Angeles Times , Climate Change Isnt Driving Georgia Wildfires
Sorry , Los Angeles Times , Climate Change Isnt Driving Georgia Wildfires. Climate and Energy News : Are fossil fuel interests losing now ?. China reaffirms support for Kingdom environmental protection measures.
Sources: wattsupwiththat.com, augustafreepress.com, phnompenhpost.com
Northern Michigan Extreme Climate Disaster
Northern Michigan Extreme Climate Disaster. B . C . climate news : Drought forces earlier watering restrictions in Metro Vancouver | Global forest loss fell in 2.... Roundup of climate and environmental news to May 3 , 2026 ..
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
NBA MVP - Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
98.3%
$27K
Israel says may act again against Iran to ensure it doesnt become a threat
Israel says may act again against Iran to ensure it doesnt become a threat.
Sources: hindustantimes.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? - Yes at 2.4% with $505K traded.
Top volume remains in Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? - Yes.
Event leaders
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?) | 2.4% | $505K
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?) | 30.0% | $342K
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?) | 7.0% | $322K
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Top volume: May 31 | 10.0% | $319K
Top odds: December 31 | 29.0%
Popular events
8.6%
-0.1pp
$13M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $597M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $563M0%
India - linked tanker Sarv Shakti carrying cooking fuel crosses Strait of Hormuz. Iran drafts plan to regulate Strait of Hormuz transit : Deputy parliament speaker. U . S . warns shipping firms they could face sanctions over paying Iranian tolls in Strait of Hormuz.
Sources: moneycontrol.com, aa.com.tr, thehindu.com
WTI Crude Oil Prices Rise Amid Iran Conflict Uncertainty
WTI Crude Oil Prices Rise Amid Iran Conflict Uncertainty. PBF to move WTI to US east coast on Jones waiver. Trump Dodges War Powers Deadline Oil Enters Higher - For - Longer Regime As Brent Croses $111 - United Stat.
Sources: econotimes.com, argusmedia.com, benzinga.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? - Yes at 5.0% with $273K traded.
Top volume remains in Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? - Yes.
Lead event
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? - Yes
Trading at 5.0% with $273K in volume.
Event leaders
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?) | 5.0% | $273K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?) | 19.0% | $201K
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?
Top volume: ↑ $200 | 1.7% | $170K
Top odds: ↑ $105 | 90.0%
Top volume & odds: No change | 96.0% | $140K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?) | 45.0% | $36K
China DeepSeek rolls out a long - anticipated update of its AI model
China DeepSeek rolls out a long - anticipated update of its AI model. Pentagon says US military to be an AI - first fighting force. DeepSeek unveils new , low - cost V4 AI models : Here what you need to know | Technology News.
Sources: tech.yahoo.com, yahoo.com, indianexpress.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Which company has the best AI model end of May? - OpenAI at 2.1% with $44K traded.
Top volume remains in Which company has the best AI model end of May? - OpenAI.
Lead event
Which company has the best AI model end of May? - OpenAI
Trading at 2.1% with $44K in volume.
Event leaders
Which company has the best AI model end of May?
Top volume: OpenAI | 2.1% | $44K
Top odds: Anthropic | 82.0%
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?
Top volume: OpenAI | 18.0% | $7K
Top odds: Meituan | 32.1%
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?) | 1.2% | $5K
What will SpaceX's public ticker be?
Top volume: $SPACE | 1.2% | $4K
Top odds: Other (incl $SPCX) | 61.9%
Sources: bleacherreport.com, storyconsole.westword.com, kens5.com
What it means to be friends with Jesus
What it means to be friends with Jesus. Society News | Franklin Graham Downplays Trump AI Jesus Meme Backlash. Are Jesus and Satan brothers ? Allie Beth Stuckey challenges LDS podcaster on Mormon theology ..
Sources: americamagazine.org, christianitydaily.com, theblaze.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Eurovision Winner 2026 - Finland at 33.8% with $330K traded.
Top volume remains in Eurovision Winner 2026 - Finland.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Finland | 33.8% | $330K
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 3.5% | $53K
Elon Musk # tweets May 1 - May 8, 2026?
Top volume & odds: 80-99 | 1.8% | $47K
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume: May 31 | 2.2% | $47K
Top odds: December 31 | 18.0%
Popular events
How Eric Trump American Bitcoin Lost $500 Million In Shareholder Value In 8 Months - American Bitcoin (. 1 Reason Bitcoin Could Still Make You a Retirement Millionaire. Tether Backs Plan to Turn Twenty - One Into a Larger Public Bitcoin Platform.
Sources: benzinga.com, finance.yahoo.com, finance.yahoo.com
This Set It and Forget It Cryptocurrency Could Make You a Multimillionaire With Almost No Effort
This Set It and Forget It Cryptocurrency Could Make You a Multimillionaire With Almost No Effort. Bitcoin Rally Accelerates , But BTC Options Doubt $84K Is Possible. Why The Bitcoin Price Could Hit $68 , 000 Again.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, cointelegraph.com, newsbtc.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by What price will Bitcoin hit in May? - ↓ 60,000 at 6.0% with $123K traded.
Top volume remains in What price will Bitcoin hit in May? - ↓ 60,000.
Event leaders
What price will Bitcoin hit in May?
Top volume: ↓ 60,000 | 6.0% | $123K
Top odds: ↑ 80,000 | 85.0%
Top volume: June 30, 2026 | 3.0% | $50K
Top odds: December 31, 2026 | 19.0%
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
Top volume: ↑ 250,000 | 3.6% | $39K
Top odds: ↑ 80,000 | 95.4%
Popular events
Jayson Tatum dominates in return to playoffs : Takeaways from Celtics - 76ers Game 1. Every NBA Team Biggest Burner Suspect According to Fans. 4 Celtics who could be entering their final playoff run in Boston.
Sources: nytimes.com, bleacherreport.com, fansided.com
Live British Touring Car Championship
Live British Touring Car Championship. Inside McLaren search for its next F1 superstar driver. Toto Wolff opens up on Mercedes gamble that critics said would burn Kimi Antonelli.
Sources: tvguide.co.uk, crash.net, motorsport.com
Event leaders
Top volume: Minnesota Wild | 10.2% | $65K
Top odds: Colorado Avalanche | 31.1%
Top volume & odds: Bayern Munich | 32.0% | $61K
Popular events
Sources: circleofblue.org, theprovince.com, theprovince.com
BetMGM Bonus Code COVERS50 : Make $1 . 5K First Bet for Flyers - Hurricanes Game 1 on Saturday , Get Bonus Back. Bet365 Bonus Code : Claim $200 Bonus Bets for Flyers - Hurricanes Game 1 , NHL Games on Saturday. Flyers vs . Hurricanes Time , TV & Live Stream – Game 1 | 1049 Fox Sports Upstate.
Sources: covers.com, covers.com, 1049foxsports.iheart.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑3k at 64.0% with $501 traded.
Top volume remains in Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑3k.
Event leaders
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
Top volume & odds: ↑3k | 64.0% | $501
How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
Top volume: 17–19 | 23.0% | $38
Top odds: 14–16 | 31.0%
Popular events
Vol $706K
+$78,040
+$23,195
+$8,949
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
Leaderboard
#1
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#5
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