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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" Event volume totals $23M across outcomes. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?)" at 5.9% and $0 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?)" at 6.0% and $889K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? - Yes
$0
Highest implied
Maine Democratic Senate Primary Winner - Graham Platner
98.8%
Top priced
Maine Democratic Senate Primary Winner - Graham Platner
98.8%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - May 31 leads the desk at 23.0% with $1M traded.
Lead stories
Iran war live updates : Iran war deadline approaches with no end in sight for conflict
Iran war live updates : Iran war deadline approaches with no end in sight for conflict. Iran submits latest proposal for US negotiations , state media say.
Sources: economictimes.indiatimes.com, breitbart.com
US imposes new sanctions on Iran , warns shippers not to pay Strait tolls
US imposes new sanctions on Iran , warns shippers not to pay Strait tolls. US sanctions Chinese oil terminal over Iran trade under Economic Fury. US naval blockade squeezes Iran oil exports , forces crude onto floating storage.
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? - Yes leads the desk at 6.0% with $889K traded.
Lead stories
Could a prolonged conflict between the US and Iran threaten another vital link ?
Could a prolonged conflict between the US and Iran threaten another vital link ?. Iran should beware the consequences of its blackmail. US Navy contracts AI firm for software to counter Iranian mines in Strait.
Sources: scmp.com, arabnews.com, jpost.com
Why Have Gasoline and Heating Oil Futures Diverged ?
Why Have Gasoline and Heating Oil Futures Diverged ?. Crude Oil Weekly Forecast - 19 / 04 : Lower Value ( Chart ). WTI Crude Oil Prices Rise Amid Iran Conflict Uncertainty.
B4
Lead market: Which company has the best AI model end of May? - OpenAI leads the desk at 3.5% with $52K traded.
Lead stories
Should You Buy SoundHound AI Stock Before May 7 ?
Should You Buy SoundHound AI Stock Before May 7 ?. Here how much Microsoft buyout program will cost.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, seattletimes.com
AI from 7 tech companies will be used on classified systems : Pentagon
AI from 7 tech companies will be used on classified systems : Pentagon. Pentagon inks AI procurement deals with seven companies , leaves out Anthropic. Pentagon says US military to be an AI - first fighting force.
Sources: ,
B5
Lead market: Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 leads the desk at 18.0% with $166K traded.
Lead stories
BLACKPINK Lisa makes history as first K - pop star on Met Gala 2026 host committee
BLACKPINK Lisa makes history as first K - pop star on Met Gala 2026 host committee. EXCLUSIVE : Tina Thadani meets Rihanna , calls her authentic and beautiful : Bollywood News. Mark Ronson to Receive Honorary Clio Award.
Sources: moneycontrol.com, bollywoodhungama.com, billboard.com
B6
Lead market: Printr public sale total commitments? - >$3M leads the desk at 4.0% with $162K traded.
Lead stories
FxWirePro - Key Crypto Updates - EconoTimes
FxWirePro - Key Crypto Updates - EconoTimes.
Sources: econotimes.com
Bitcoin rises above $77K , but profit - taking fears loom ahead of US inflation data
Bitcoin rises above $77K , but profit - taking fears loom ahead of US inflation data. Bitcoin Crash Is Coming : Pundit Says It Time To Sell All Your BTC. If I Had $4 , 500 to Invest in Crypto , Here What Id Buy Today.
Sources: moneycontrol.com, newsbtc.com,
B7
Lead market: Pistons leads the desk at 71.0% with $609K traded.
Lead stories
Is the Eastern Conference the Knick to lose ? It feels that way
Is the Eastern Conference the Knick to lose ? It feels that way. DraftKings Promo Code : Get $100 Bonus Bets for Pistons vs . Magic , NBA Playoffs on Friday. How to live stream Pistons vs Magic : NBA Playoffs , TV channel.
Sources: nytimes.com, covers.com, thebiglead.com
Cavaliers vs . Raptors Prediction , Odds and Best Prop Bets for NBA Playoffs Game 6
Cavaliers vs . Raptors Prediction , Odds and Best Prop Bets for NBA Playoffs Game 6. Raptors look to stay alive with win over Cavs. DraftKings Promo Code : Get $100 Bonus Bets for Cavaliers vs . Raptors Game 6 , NBA Playoffs.
B8
Lead market: How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026? - 11–13 leads the desk at 27.0% with $3K traded.
Lead stories
We Need To Speak Out Against Policies That Are Exacerbating Climate Change
We Need To Speak Out Against Policies That Are Exacerbating Climate Change. Hoymiles Releases 2025 Sustainability Report , Advancing High - Quality Growth Through ESG Leadership. Hoymiles Releases 2025 Sustainability Report , Advancing High - Quality Growth Through ESG Leadership.
Sources: cleantechnica.com, philippinetimes.com, sydneysun.com
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
NBA MVP - Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
98.7%
$81K
Sources: jpost.com, aninews.in, zawya.com
Scott Bessent Reveals the True State of Iran Amid the US Blockade : Like Rats in a Sewer Pipe
Scott Bessent Reveals the True State of Iran Amid the US Blockade : Like Rats in a Sewer Pipe. As Desperation Grows , Iran Considers Deploying Explosive Dolphins Against US Blockade. Cal Thomas : Do we know our enemy ?.
Sources: townhall.com, townhall.com, dailyfreeman.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - May 31 at 23.0% with $1M traded.
Top volume remains in US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - May 31.
Event leaders
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Top volume: May 31 | 9.0% | $615K
Top odds: December 31 | 28.0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?) | 2.7% | $408K
Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?
Top volume: May 15 | 15.0% | $264K
Top odds: May 31 | 41.0%
Popular events
Vol $615K
8.7%
+0.1pp
$13M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $595M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $562M0%
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyforex.com, econotimes.com
The UN Security Council Discusses Maritime Security
The UN Security Council Discusses Maritime Security. Iran submits latest proposal for US negotiations , state media say. US Treasury warns shippers not to pay Hormuz tolls , even in form of charity.
Sources: voltairenet.org, bostonherald.com, koreatimes.co.kr
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? - Yes at 6.0% with $889K traded.
Top volume remains in Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? - Yes.
Lead event
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? - Yes
Trading at 6.0% with $889K in volume.
Event leaders
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?) | 6.0% | $889K
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?
Top volume: ↑ $150 | 6.0% | $259K
Top odds: ↑ $105 | 92.0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?) | 46.0% | $236K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?) | 21.0% | $147K
SpaceX IPO Aims to Raise $75 Billion -- and 1 AI Stock Should Be a Big Winner From It
SpaceX IPO Aims to Raise $75 Billion -- and 1 AI Stock Should Be a Big Winner From It. SpaceX , Anthropic , and OpenAI Could Be Fast - Tracked Into the S & P 500 After Their IPOs . Here How. Elon Musk clashes with OpenAI lawyer on third day of trial over ChatGPT maker.
Sources: fool.com, fool.com, euronews.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Which company has the best AI model end of May? - OpenAI at 3.5% with $52K traded.
Top volume remains in Which company has the best AI model end of May? - OpenAI.
Lead event
Which company has the best AI model end of May? - OpenAI
Trading at 3.5% with $52K in volume.
Event leaders
Which company has the best AI model end of May?
Top volume: OpenAI | 3.5% | $52K
Top odds: Anthropic | 81.0%
Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
Top volume: Nebius Group | 20.0% | $50K
Top odds: Cursor | 77.0%
Which company has best AI model end of June?
Top volume & odds: Anthropic | 69.5% | $20K
Top volume & odds: December 31, 2026 | 21.2% | $13K
Ready Hearts Await The Return Of Christ. Living Stones , Walk in the Light of Christ. Golden Harvest receives 36 , 000 pounds of food from Latter - day Saints church.
Sources: patheos.com, ncregister.com, wrdw.com
Rich Paul Says LeBron Jame Legacy Wouldnt Be Impacted if Lakers Blow 3 - 0 NBA Playoffs Lead
Rich Paul Says LeBron Jame Legacy Wouldnt Be Impacted if Lakers Blow 3 - 0 NBA Playoffs Lead. 3 teams Nikola Jokic could move to that would make the NBA much more interesting. Nuggets , Bucks And The NBA Between - Dynasty Missed Opportunities.
Sources: bleacherreport.com, fansided.com, forbes.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 at 18.0% with $166K traded.
Top volume remains in Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31.
Lead event
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31
Trading at 18.0% with $166K in volume.
Event leaders
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 18.0% | $166K
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 3.6% | $95K
Top volume & odds: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 98.7% | $81K
Top volume: Richard Van De Water | 6.3% | $30K
Top odds: Kevin Montero | 94.8%
Popular events
This Cryptocurrency Could Skyrocket 2 , 500 %, According to a Top Wall Street Strategist
This Cryptocurrency Could Skyrocket 2 , 500 %, According to a Top Wall Street Strategist. Baystreet . ca - Bitcoin Gained 13 % In April As Crypto Winter Thawed. Coinremitter Can Offer the Easiest Way to Accept Crypto Payments.
Sources: fool.com, baystreet.ca, insidermonkey.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by Printr public sale total commitments? - >$3M at 4.0% with $162K traded.
Top volume remains in Printr public sale total commitments? - >$3M.
Event leaders
Top volume: by June 30, 2026 | 1.8% | $59K
Top odds: by December 31, 2026 | 11.0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?) | 9.8% | $43K
Top volume: September 30, 2026 | 10.0% | $34K
Top odds: December 31, 2026 | 17.0%
Popular events
Vol $82K
Sources: si.com, globalnews.ca, covers.com
Lakers vs . Rockets Game 4 Time , TV & Stream – April 26
Lakers vs . Rockets Game 4 Time , TV & Stream – April 26. Lakers vs . Rockets Prediction , Odds and Best Prop Bets for NBA Playoffs Game 6. Lakers get Austin Reaves back but fail to close out Rockets in Game 5.
Sources: am1300thezone.iheart.com, si.com, dailynews.com
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Pistons | 71.0% | $609K
Top volume & odds: PSG | 32.0% | $105K
Top volume: Minnesota Wild | 10.0% | $86K
Top odds: Colorado Avalanche | 31.5%
Hoymiles Releases 2025 Sustainability Report , Advancing High - Quality Growth Through ESG Leadership. PH , Singapore ink landmark carbon credits deal. Climate change increases stroke risk through extreme weather and pollution.
Sources: singaporestar.com, manilatimes.net, news-medical.net
Ryan Poehling scores early in OT , Ducks push Oilers to the brink with 4 - 3 win in Game 4 – KTBB News , Weather , Talk.
Sources: ktbb.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026? - 11–13 at 27.0% with $3K traded.
Top volume remains in How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026? - 11–13.
Event leaders
Popular events
+$23,195
+$10,606
+$3,651
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
Leaderboard
#1
Awaiting data
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#2
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#3
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#4
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#5
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