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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" Event volume totals $23M across outcomes. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?)" at 6.7% and $0 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?)" at 16.0% and $332K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? - Yes
$0
Highest implied
Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair? - Kevin Warsh
98.9%
Top priced
Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair? - Kevin Warsh
98.9%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...? - April 30 leads the desk at 3.4% with $3M traded.
Lead stories
Triggered Trump Loses It After Key U . S . Ally Says He Was Humiliated
Triggered Trump Loses It After Key U . S . Ally Says He Was Humiliated. No more Mr . Nice Guy : Trump gives ultimatum to Iran as war enters 2nd month . Here why. Trump Extends Iran Ceasefire ; Selnick Cites Lack of Negotiating Partners – NaturalNews . com.
Sources: thedailybeast.com, businesstoday.in, naturalnews.com
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? - Yes leads the desk at 16.0% with $332K traded.
Lead stories
Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic almost at a standstill , UN says
Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic almost at a standstill , UN says. Japanese tanker carrying Saudi oil crosses Strait of Hormuz. The Oil Supply Shock Will Scar the World for Years.
Sources: yahoo.com, koreatimes.co.kr, oilprice.com
U . S . Clearing Mines From Strait Of Hormuz As Oil Prices Remain Volatile | News Radio 1200 WOAI
U . S . Clearing Mines From Strait Of Hormuz As Oil Prices Remain Volatile | News Radio 1200 WOAI. Russian superyacht crosses Hormuz with Iran and U . S . approval. Would ships be allowed to safely pass the Strait of Hormuz after U war ends ? What Iran said.
B4
Lead market: Which company has best AI model end of June? - Google leads the desk at 29.0% with $34K traded.
Lead stories
OpenAI CEO Identity Verification Company Announced Fake Bruno Mars Partnership Due To Mistaken Identity.
Sources: vice.com
OpenAI - linked stocks slump on report it missed key targets
OpenAI - linked stocks slump on report it missed key targets. How Nvidia Stock Could Be the Biggest Loser From the SpaceX IPO. Google Bets Up to $40B on Anthropic as AI Compute Race Grows.
Sources: eastbaytimes.com, ,
B5
Lead market: Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 96.9% with $774K traded.
Lead stories
Clavicular bizarre pregnancy contest claim sparks backlash on social media ; I will be a dad …
Clavicular bizarre pregnancy contest claim sparks backlash on social media ; I will be a dad ….
Sources: hindustantimes.com
Eurojury 2026 : The Results From 🇩🇰 Denmark
Eurojury 2026 : The Results From 🇩🇰 Denmark. How To Win Eurovision ( Without Really Trying ).
Sources: eurovoix.com, cornellsun.com
B6
Lead market: MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch? - >$600M leads the desk at 97.8% with $165K traded.
Lead stories
The Perp Dex That Processed $360 Billion Just Went Live on Crypto Most Experimental Blockchain
The Perp Dex That Processed $360 Billion Just Went Live on Crypto Most Experimental Blockchain. MegaETH Hits 47K TPS As It Prepares For 11B Transaction Stress Test. FxWirePro - Key Crypto Updates - EconoTimes.
Sources: benzinga.com, cointelegraph.com, econotimes.com
Ramp Network Launches Multichain Wallet to Cut Third - Party Handoffs
Ramp Network Launches Multichain Wallet to Cut Third - Party Handoffs.
B7
Lead market: UEFA Champions League Winner - Arsenal leads the desk at 26.0% with $443K traded.
Lead stories
Disney+ buys rights for UEFA Champions League , Europa , and Conference League in Belgium : Best Belgian clubs -. Bring it on , says Rice , as Arsenal chases Champions League history. Bring it on , says Rice , as Arsenal chases Champions League history.
Sources: gamereactor.eu, usa.chinadaily.com.cn, europe.chinadaily.com.cn
B8
Lead market: Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑5k leads the desk at 9.0% with $2K traded.
Lead stories
How Unstoppable Renewable Energy Transition Serves National Self - Interest Amid Climate Geopolitics
How Unstoppable Renewable Energy Transition Serves National Self - Interest Amid Climate Geopolitics. Siemon flags renewable energy gains , emissions drop in ESG report. It is deeply concerning that despite climate law , planning approvals will substantially increase Ireland greenhouse....
Sources: natureworldnews.com, zawya.com, irishtimes.com
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
Iran War Heads Toward Legal Showdown as May 1 Deadline Nears. Kenya : Sixth Senate Mashinani to Be Held in Kilifi. Why Mamata Banerjee is facing a tough road in 2026 Bengal elections.
Sources: military.com, allafrica.com, moneycontrol.com
EU Approves $105 Billion Loan for Ukraine Amid New Sanctions on Russia | World News
EU Approves $105 Billion Loan for Ukraine Amid New Sanctions on Russia | World News. Ukrainian married couple aged 75 killed in Russian attack on Odesa | Russia - Ukraine war News. Russia Faces Economic , Civil & Political Challenges During Ukraine War.
Sources: timesofindia.indiatimes.com, aljazeera.com, forbes.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...? - April 30 at 3.4% with $3M traded.
Top volume remains in Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...? - April 30.
Lead event
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...? - April 30
Trading at 3.4% with $3M in volume.
Event leaders
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?
Top volume: April 30 | 3.4% | $3M
Top odds: June 30 | 61.0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?) | 11.0% | $443K
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?) | 3.6% | $372K
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Top volume: Jon Ossoff | 6.3% | $364K
Top odds: Gavin Newsom | 27.1%
7.6%
-0.1pp
$11M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $592M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $558M0%
Sources: woai.iheart.com, khaama.com, hindustantimes.com
Why Have Gasoline and Heating Oil Futures Diverged ?
Why Have Gasoline and Heating Oil Futures Diverged ?. What are the differences in crude oil ?. Oil Prices : Oil prices today : Crude jumps nearly 2 % as US - Iran talks stall , Hormuz disruptions tighten supply.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, marketplace.org, timesofindia.indiatimes.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? - Yes at 16.0% with $332K traded.
Top volume remains in Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? - Yes.
Lead event
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? - Yes
Trading at 16.0% with $332K in volume.
Event leaders
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?) | 16.0% | $332K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?) | 28.0% | $287K
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in April 2026?
Top volume: ↑ $120 | 1.4% | $205K
Top odds: ↓ $95 | 25.0%
Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Top volume & odds: Kevin Warsh | 98.9% | $200K
Top volume & odds: No change | 86.0% | $149K
Microsoft , OpenAI change terms of deal so startup can court Amazon , others
Microsoft , OpenAI change terms of deal so startup can court Amazon , others. Chip stocks drop on report OpenAI missed ChatGPT growth targets. Why This Week Could Be Huge For AI Stocks.
Sources: rappler.com, siliconangle.com, fool.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Which company has best AI model end of June? - Google at 29.0% with $34K traded.
Top volume remains in Which company has best AI model end of June? - Google.
Lead event
Which company has best AI model end of June? - Google
Trading at 29.0% with $34K in volume.
Event leaders
Which company has best AI model end of June?
Top volume: Google | 29.0% | $34K
Top odds: Anthropic | 60.7%
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?) | 1.6% | $32K
Which company has the best AI model end of April?
Top volume: OpenAI | 1.1% | $30K
Top odds: Anthropic | 98.6%
Top volume & odds: Cerebras | 97.8% | $28K
Top volume & odds: June 30, 2026 | 38.0% | $26K
Popular events
News brief in progress
Editors are compiling the latest reports on Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027.
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? - Yes at 96.9% with $774K traded.
Top volume remains in Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?) | 96.9% | $774K
Top volume & odds: Finland | 35.3% | $395K
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume: May 31 | 3.2% | $157K
Top odds: December 31 | 19.0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 3.7% | $137K
Top volume & odds: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 98.0% | $35K
Popular events
Sources: cointelegraph.com
Bear Trap or $84K ? Bitcoin Data Mixed on BTC Price Recovery
Bear Trap or $84K ? Bitcoin Data Mixed on BTC Price Recovery. Bitcoin Price Dips Under $76 , 500 , Sellers Push For Deeper Pullback. Tired of Being Burned by Crypto ? Make Bitcoin Your Core Long ‑ Term Position ..
Sources: cointelegraph.com, newsbtc.com, fool.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch? - >$600M at 97.8% with $165K traded.
Top volume remains in MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch? - >$600M.
Lead event
MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch? - >$600M
Trading at 97.8% with $165K in volume.
Event leaders
MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch?
Top volume & odds: >$600M | 97.8% | $165K
Will MegaETH launch a token by ___?
Top volume & odds: April 30, 2026 | 98.9% | $126K
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
Top volume: ↓ 55,000 | 54.0% | $85K
Top odds: ↑ 80,000 | 88.9%
Popular events
Buck Forslund grandson blazes a familiar Allan Cup trail.
Sources: owensoundsuntimes.com
Domenicali in denial : If you dont like it , you dont like it as Formula 1 backlash grows over 2026 rules. Meet The Champions : SCSU Outstanding Athletes Of The Year. Public Interest Registry Launches Global Campaign With Mission 44 across Formula 1 Digital Platforms to Spotlight the....
Sources: grandprix247.com, wjon.com, finanznachrichten.de
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by UEFA Champions League Winner - Arsenal at 26.0% with $443K traded.
Top volume remains in UEFA Champions League Winner - Arsenal.
Event leaders
Top volume: Carolina Hurricanes | 27.0% | $41K
Top odds: Colorado Avalanche | 30.0%
Popular events
Ryan Poehling scores early in OT , Ducks push Oilers to the brink with 4 - 3 win in Game 4 – KTBB News , Weather , Talk.
Sources: ktbb.com
10 years of forest work by B . C . society reduces fire risk , carbon output
10 years of forest work by B . C . society reduces fire risk , carbon output. 10 years of forest work by B . C . society reduces fire risk , carbon output. 10 years of forest work by B . C . society reduces fire risk , carbon output.
Sources: ladysmithchronicle.com, theprogress.com, missioncityrecord.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑5k at 9.0% with $2K traded.
Top volume remains in Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑5k.
Event leaders
Popular events
+$36,250
+$27,358
+$12,679
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
Leaderboard
#1
Awaiting data
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#2
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#3
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#4
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#5
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