Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" Event volume totals $23M across outcomes. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?)" at 7.4% and $0 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?)" at 40.0% and $618K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Volume leaders
B1
Lead market: US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - April 30 leads the desk at 1.2% with $2M traded.
Lead stories
Ekiti poll will test APC strength for 2027 , says governor
Ekiti poll will test APC strength for 2027 , says governor. CPI D Raja urges voters in W Bengal to reject BJP , warns of disastrous outcome if party wins. CPI D Raja urges voters in W Bengal to reject BJP , warns of disastrous outcome if party wins.
Sources: punchng.com, news.webindia123.com, aninews.in
Iran proposes deal to reopen Strait of Hormuz but at what cost to US ?
Iran proposes deal to reopen Strait of Hormuz but at what cost to US ?. On Meet the Press Ro Khanna goes to the crux of the matter about what is holding Trump back on making peace with Iran. US secretary of state says Iran seriou about deal.
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B
B3
Lead market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? - Yes leads the desk at 40.0% with $618K traded.
Lead stories
Trump says Iran in state of collapse , wants Strait of Hormuz opened as soon as possible
Trump says Iran in state of collapse , wants Strait of Hormuz opened as soon as possible. Contradictory voices from Tehran on Hormuz make peace process tough , Iranian lawmaker calls for tolls in Strait. Japanese crude supertanker Idemitsu Maru attempts Strait of Hormuz exit in war first.
Sources: moneycontrol.com, aninews.in, moneycontrol.com
B4
Lead market: Which company has the best AI model end of April? - OpenAI leads the desk at 1.4% with $540K traded.
Lead stories
Meta bets $21 billion on AI infrastructure in CoreWeave deal
Meta bets $21 billion on AI infrastructure in CoreWeave deal.
Sources: thenews.com.pk
Microsoft no longer has exclusive access to OpenAI tech
Microsoft no longer has exclusive access to OpenAI tech. Anthropic , Silicon Valley conscience ?, by Félix Tréguer ( Le Monde diplomatique. OpenAI breaks off Microsoft exclusivity.
Sources: bnnbloomberg.ca, mondediplo.com,
B5
Lead market: Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes leads the desk at 3.9% with $578K traded.
Lead stories
Allie Beth Stuckey debates Latter - day Saints podcaster and asks : Was Christ sacrifice not enough ?. President Oaks extends invitations to youths and young adults. Why would an Israeli soldier smash the face of Jesus ?.
Sources: theblaze.com, yahoo.com, jpost.com
Eurojury 2026 : The Results From 🇩🇰 Denmark
Eurojury 2026 : The Results From 🇩🇰 Denmark. Eurojury 2026 : The Results From 🇱🇹 Lithuania. Sing Instead of Dance Permit : ESC SingAlong in the Retirement Home.
B6
Lead market: Will MegaETH launch a token by ___? - April 30, 2026 leads the desk at 97.5% with $382K traded.
Lead stories
MegaETH Hits 47K TPS As It Prepares For 11B Transaction Stress Test
MegaETH Hits 47K TPS As It Prepares For 11B Transaction Stress Test. FxWirePro - Key Crypto Updates - EconoTimes.
Sources: cointelegraph.com, econotimes.com
Crypto Staking Explained : Rewards , Risks , and How to Start
Crypto Staking Explained : Rewards , Risks , and How to Start. Bitcoin and ethereum prices today , Tuesday , April 28 , 2026 : Values falling ahead of Fed meeting. Western Union to Launch Solana - Based USDPT Stablecoin Next Month.
Sources: pressofatlanticcity.com,
B7
Lead market: FC Bayern München leads the desk at 38.0% with $365K traded.
Lead stories
HorsegiirL Shares Earth Is Turning And Confirms Nature Is Healing Album Release
HorsegiirL Shares Earth Is Turning And Confirms Nature Is Healing Album Release. Wilhelm Sasnal : Grey Eyes - Announcements. Artdaily - The First Art Newspaper on the Net.
Sources: noise11.com, e-flux.com, artdaily.com
Disney+ buys rights for UEFA Champions League , Europa , and Conference League in Belgium : Best Belgian clubs -. Tel time , Maddison to come back or bring in Bergvall – who replaces Xavi Simons ?.
B8
Lead market: Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑4k leads the desk at 36.0% with $7K traded.
Lead stories
Cenovus says oilfield extension will hike emissions
Cenovus says oilfield extension will hike emissions. Cenovus says oilfield extension off Newfoundland will hike emissions by 21 per cent. N . L . government approves emissions hikes for Cenovus oil field project , Vale nickel mine.
Sources: bnnbloomberg.ca, cbc.ca, theglobeandmail.com
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
98.9%
$9K
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑2k
98.7%
$595
Sources: thenews.com.pk, dailykos.com, tribune.com.pk
Growing Calls to End Unilateral Coercive Measures
Growing Calls to End Unilateral Coercive Measures. APC Leaders Back Oyebanji Re - election Bid in Ekiti State. Conservatives Ask Trump to Use Obscure Constitutional Power to Fund DHS.
Sources: countercurrents.org, punchng.com, dailysignal.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - April 30 at 1.2% with $2M traded.
Top volume remains in US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - April 30.
Event leaders
Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?
Top volume: April 30 | 6.0% | $629K
Top odds: May 31 | 59.0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?) | 34.0% | $366K
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Top volume: May 31 | 8.0% | $339K
Top odds: December 31 | 25.0%
Popular events
7.7%
—
$11M
—
Republican nominee
Event volume $590M
Presidential election
Event volume $557M
Oil Prices : Oil prices today : Crude jumps nearly 2 % as US - Iran talks stall , Hormuz disruptions tighten supply. Crude climbs 3 % as Strait of Hormuz restrictions continue. Oil climbs nearly 2 % as US - Iran peace talks stall.
Demand Surge Fuels Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company ( TSM ) Rally
Demand Surge Fuels Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company ( TSM ) Rally.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? - Yes at 40.0% with $618K traded.
Top volume remains in Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? - Yes.
Lead event
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? - Yes
Trading at 40.0% with $618K in volume.
Event leaders
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?) | 40.0% | $618K
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in April 2026?
Top volume: ↑ $120 | 3.5% | $282K
Top odds: ↑ $105 | 43.0%
Top volume: Apple | 1.9% | $105K
Top odds: Largest Company end of June? | 92.0%
What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of June?
Top volume: ↑ $5,500 | 11.6% | $81K
Top odds: ↓ $4,600 | 95.7%
Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Top volume & odds: Kevin Warsh | 98.6% | $80K
Popular events
Anthropic releases 9 Claude connectors for creative tools , including Blender and Adobe
Anthropic releases 9 Claude connectors for creative tools , including Blender and Adobe. Claude can now plug directly into Photoshop , Blender , and Ableton. Anthropic teams up with Adobe , others to use Claude for creative work.
Sources: 9to5mac.com, theverge.com, seekingalpha.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Which company has the best AI model end of April? - OpenAI at 1.4% with $540K traded.
Top volume remains in Which company has the best AI model end of April? - OpenAI.
Lead event
Which company has the best AI model end of April? - OpenAI
Trading at 1.4% with $540K in volume.
Event leaders
Which company has the best AI model end of April?
Top volume: OpenAI | 1.4% | $540K
Top odds: Anthropic | 98.2%
Which company has best AI model end of June?
Top volume & odds: Anthropic | 57.1% | $20K
Top volume & odds: June 30, 2026 | 21.0% | $10K
Which company has the #1 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)
Top volume & odds: Anthropic | 98.9% | $9K
What will SpaceX's public ticker be?
Top volume: $SPACE | 1.2% | $8K
Top odds: Other (incl $SPCX) | 67.2%
Popular events
Sources: eurovoix.com, eurovoix.com, vol.at
Mark Ronson to Receive Honorary Clio Award
Mark Ronson to Receive Honorary Clio Award. Rashmika Mandanna to return as presenter at 10th Global Anime Awards in Tokyo. The Devil Wears Prada 2 First Reactions.
Sources: billboard.com, bollywoodhungama.com, themarysue.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes at 3.9% with $578K traded.
Top volume remains in Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes.
Event leaders
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 3.9% | $578K
Top volume & odds: Finland | 36.6% | $343K
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 19.0% | $83K
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 66.0% | $9K
Popular events
XRP Price Prediction : We Asked AI if XRP Will Hit $5 Before Bitcoin Hits $200K
XRP Price Prediction : We Asked AI if XRP Will Hit $5 Before Bitcoin Hits $200K. Bitcoin Bears At Risk Of $1 . 4B Liquidation If BTC Rallies To $80K. Bitcoin Whale Holdings Hit 5 Month High At 3 . 09M BTC.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, cointelegraph.com, cointelegraph.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by Will MegaETH launch a token by ___? - April 30, 2026 at 97.5% with $382K traded.
Top volume remains in Will MegaETH launch a token by ___? - April 30, 2026.
Lead event
Will MegaETH launch a token by ___? - April 30, 2026
Trading at 97.5% with $382K in volume.
Event leaders
Will MegaETH launch a token by ___?
Top volume & odds: April 30, 2026 | 97.5% | $382K
MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch?
Top volume: >$2B | 34.0% | $208K
Top odds: >$600M | 98.3%
Will Base launch a token by ___ ?
Top volume: June 30, 2026 | 3.9% | $39K
Top odds: December 31, 2026 | 39.0%
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
Top volume & odds: ↑ 80,000 | 89.9% | $32K
Popular events
Sources: gamereactor.eu, aol.co.uk
What To Expect At The Sabre Game 5 Showdown Against Bruins
What To Expect At The Sabre Game 5 Showdown Against Bruins. What To Expect At The Sabre Game 5 Showdown Against Bruins. Ducks seeking first series victory in 9 years vs . Oilers.
Sources: wbuf.com, wblk.com, californiatelegraph.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by FC Bayern München at 38.0% with $365K traded.
Top volume remains in FC Bayern München.
Event leaders
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München
Top volume: FC Bayern München | 38.0% | $365K
Top odds: Paris Saint-Germain FC | 40.0%
Top volume: Atletico Madrid | 11.5% | $80K
Top odds: Bayern Munich | 37.0%
Top volume: Carolina Hurricanes | 23.0% | $51K
Top odds: Colorado Avalanche | 28.8%
Popular events
Flyers beat East top seed Hurricanes 3 - 2 in SO and secure their first playoff berth since 2020. Flyers beat Hurricanes in 3 - 2 in a shootout and secure their first playoff berth since 2020. Flyers beat East top seed Hurricanes 3 - 2 in SO and secure their first playoff berth since 2020 | News , Sports , Jobs.
Sources: wral.com, wnep.com, mauinews.com
Wu outlines climate roadmap to make Boston carbon neutral by 2050
Wu outlines climate roadmap to make Boston carbon neutral by 2050. Exclusive | NY climate mandates may send fees in affordable Co - Op City complex soaring from $950 to $4K. A Legacy for the Future : DS Group Strengthens Portfolio - Wide Climate Action Strategy on Earth Day.
Sources: wcvb.com, nypost.com, bangladeshsun.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑4k at 36.0% with $7K traded.
Top volume remains in Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑4k.
Event leaders
Popular events
+$36,319
+$25,653
+$12,679
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
Leaderboard
#1
Awaiting data
n/a
#2
Awaiting data
n/a
#3
Awaiting data
n/a
#4
Awaiting data
n/a
#5
Awaiting data
n/a