Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" Event volume totals $23M across outcomes. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?)" at 7.5% and $0 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in April 2026?" Highest implied odds are for "↑ $100" at 62.0%, with top volume on "↑ $120" at 6.9% and $315K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? - Yes
$0
Highest implied
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑2k
98.6%
Top priced
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑2k
98.6%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑2k
98.6%
$193
B1
Lead market: US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - April 30 leads the desk at 2.1% with $3M traded.
Lead stories
Ex - Aviation Minister Hadi Sirika Declares Bid for Katsina North Senate Seat Under APC - Latest News In Nigeria , Ni.... Kaduna Senator Sunday Katung Announces 2027 Re - election Bid. Sen . Rand Paul speaks on Iran War , hopes it ends in negotiated peace.
Sources: nigerianeye.com, punchng.com, lex18.com
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B
B3
Lead market: What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in April 2026? - ↑ $120 leads the desk at 6.9% with $315K traded.
Lead stories
Why Have Gasoline and Heating Oil Futures Diverged ?
Why Have Gasoline and Heating Oil Futures Diverged ?. Crude Oil Weekly Forecast - 19 / 04 : Lower Value ( Chart ). Oil new normal : Why Brent and WTI crude face a fresh Hormuz shock.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyforex.com, businesstoday.in
Before the Iran war , how empires fought for the Strait of Hormuz
Before the Iran war , how empires fought for the Strait of Hormuz. From maritime trench warfare to a sloppy peace : Here how the Strait of Hormuz standoff could end. US military says Iran blockade continues to be fully implemented.
B4
Lead market: Which company has the best AI model end of April? - OpenAI leads the desk at 9.5% with $233K traded.
Lead stories
Profound Medical Showcases TULSA Data , AI Software Upgrades , and Reimbursement Tailwinds at Conference.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com
China DeepSeek rolls out a long - anticipated update of its AI model
China DeepSeek rolls out a long - anticipated update of its AI model. DeepSeek launches 1 . 6 trillion parameter V4 on Huawei chips as U . S . escalates AI theft accusations U . S . govt.... DeepSeek unveils new , low - cost V4 AI models : Here what you need to know | Technology News.
Sources: tech.yahoo.com,
B5
Lead market: Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes leads the desk at 3.9% with $703K traded.
Lead stories
How do you pray the Jesus Prayer ?
How do you pray the Jesus Prayer ?. Rosary Novena Day 6 : The Woman Who Saw the Sacred Heart. Saint Mark Gospel Reavels the True Impact of Scripture.
Sources: aleteia.org, relevantradio.com, dailysignal.com
Eurojury 2026 : The Results From 🇦🇺 Australia
Eurojury 2026 : The Results From 🇦🇺 Australia. Eurojury 2026 : The Results From 🇺🇦 Ukraine. 🇨🇭 Switzerland : Veronica Fusaro Covers Eurovision 2010 Winner Lena.
Sources: eurovoix.com,
B6
Lead market: MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch? - >$1B leads the desk at 86.0% with $230K traded.
Lead stories
MegaETH Hits 47K TPS As It Prepares For 11B Transaction Stress Test
MegaETH Hits 47K TPS As It Prepares For 11B Transaction Stress Test. FxWirePro - Key Crypto Updates - EconoTimes.
Sources: cointelegraph.com, econotimes.com
Crypto Has Another Positive Week As Investor Sentiment Improves
Crypto Has Another Positive Week As Investor Sentiment Improves. Dont Buy XRP Until This Happens | The Motley Fool. What Is Polkadot Actually Used For -- and Does It Justify the Investment ?.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com,
B7
Lead market: UEFA Champions League Winner - Atletico Madrid leads the desk at 11.5% with $988K traded.
Lead stories
FIFA confirms what on the line for Downs
FIFA confirms what on the line for Downs. City beat Arsenal to seize title race control. Man City beat Arsenal to seize control of title race , Liverpool win.
Sources: kickoff.com, tribune.com.pk, freemalaysiatoday.com
Proud to be a Vee : NHL star Scheifele excited to watch Penticton in WHL playoffs
Proud to be a Vee : NHL star Scheifele excited to watch Penticton in WHL playoffs. NHL Playoffs Boost : Any Canadian Team to Advance Past Rd 1 +100 at BET99. Ducks return to Stanley Cup playoffs after 7 - year absence to face Connor McDavid and tested Oilers.
B8
Lead market: Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑4k leads the desk at 41.0% with $1K traded.
Lead stories
Interconnect Malta announces extension of deadline for renewable energy link
Interconnect Malta announces extension of deadline for renewable energy link. Firms urged to take proactive control measures despite carbon tax being postponed. DeSantis signs bill shutting down local climate change efforts.
Sources: independent.com.mt, thestar.com.my, keysnews.com
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
98.6%
$2K
Bill to mitigate foreign influence on U . S . policymaking passes Senate. Youth Cong to launch Better Delhi campaign on May 1. Oregon and other states , lawmakers push to shut down Trump order on mail - in voting.
Sources: vermontbiz.com, tribuneindia.com, kgw.com
McClain Delaney to Trone : Stop misleading Maryland voters
McClain Delaney to Trone : Stop misleading Maryland voters. Social Media Posts And A Spanish Campaign Ad Expose John Cornyn History Of Support For Amnesty. Senate Approves $70 Billion Budget Blueprint for Immigration Enforcement Agencies – NaturalNews . com.
Sources: bethesdamagazine.com, dailycaller.com, naturalnews.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - April 30 at 2.1% with $3M traded.
Top volume remains in US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - April 30.
Event leaders
Peru Presidential Election Winner
Top volume: Rafael López Aliaga | 2.1% | $1M
Top odds: Keiko Fujimori | 63.0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?) | 4.0% | $908K
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Top volume: Jon Ossoff | 5.4% | $852K
Top odds: Gavin Newsom | 25.8%
8.5%
—
$11M
—
Republican nominee
Event volume $586M
Presidential election
Event volume $554M
Sources: indianexpress.com, fortune.com, prokerala.com
News brief in progress
Editors are compiling the latest reports on Fed Decision in June.
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in April 2026? - ↑ $120 at 6.9% with $315K traded.
Top volume remains in What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in April 2026? - ↑ $120.
Lead event
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in April 2026? - ↑ $120
Trading at 6.9% with $315K in volume.
Event leaders
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in April 2026?
Top volume: ↑ $120 | 6.9% | $315K
Top odds: ↑ $100 | 62.0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?) | 35.0% | $239K
Top volume & odds: No change | 93.0% | $115K
Top volume: Alphabet | 4.0% | $37K
Top odds: Largest Company end of June? | 93.0%
Popular events
DeepSeek Launches V4 on Huawei Chips in Challenge to US AI
DeepSeek Launches V4 on Huawei Chips in Challenge to US AI. ChatGPT GPT - 5 . 5 vs Claude Opus 4 . 7 vs Gemini 3 . 1 Pro : How does OpenAI latest model compare against rivals ?. SpaceX XAI 2027 | NextBigFuture . com.
Sources: newsghana.com.gh, livemint.com, nextbigfuture.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Which company has the best AI model end of April? - OpenAI at 9.5% with $233K traded.
Top volume remains in Which company has the best AI model end of April? - OpenAI.
Lead event
Which company has the best AI model end of April? - OpenAI
Trading at 9.5% with $233K in volume.
Event leaders
Which company has the best AI model end of April?
Top volume: OpenAI | 9.5% | $233K
Top odds: Anthropic | 91.0%
Which company has the #1 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)
Top volume: OpenAI | 10.7% | $13K
Top odds: Anthropic | 90.0%
Which company has best AI model end of June?
Top volume: Google | 31.0% | $9K
Top odds: Anthropic | 42.9%
What will SpaceX's public ticker be?
Top volume: $SEX | 1.8% | $8K
Top odds: Other (incl $SPCX) | 73.7%
EXCLUSIVE : Tina Thadani meets Rihanna , calls her authentic and beautiful : Bollywood News
EXCLUSIVE : Tina Thadani meets Rihanna , calls her authentic and beautiful : Bollywood News. HBO Max Is About To Lose a 10 / 10 Animated Movie From 2019. Bhooth Bangla box office collection day 9 : Akshay Kumar film joins the Rs 100 crore club ; outshines Dhurandhar and....
Sources: bollywoodhungama.com, comicbook.com, timesofindia.indiatimes.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes at 3.9% with $703K traded.
Top volume remains in Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes.
Event leaders
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 3.9% | $703K
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 21.0% | $77K
Top volume & odds: Cooper Flagg | 80.0% | $21K
Popular events
Solana Price Prediction For 2026 & 2027 : Why Vanrtix Is The Safer &
Solana Price Prediction For 2026 & 2027 : Why Vanrtix Is The Safer &. Aurelion Allocates $48 Million in Tether Gold to XAUE Yield Protocol. What Is Polkadot Actually Used For -- and Does It Justify the Investment ?.
Sources: openpr.com, finance.yahoo.com, fool.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch? - >$1B at 86.0% with $230K traded.
Top volume remains in MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch? - >$1B.
Lead event
MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch? - >$1B
Trading at 86.0% with $230K in volume.
Event leaders
MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch?
Top volume: >$1B | 86.0% | $230K
Top odds: >$600M | 96.5%
Will MegaETH launch a token by ___?
Top volume & odds: April 30, 2026 | 93.5% | $49K
Top volume: June 30, 2026 | 2.9% | $18K
Top odds: December 31, 2026 | 18.0%
Top volume & odds: June 30, 2026 | 66.2% | $17K
Popular events
Sources: kelownacapnews.com, rotowire.com, abc7.com
DTM season opener at Spielberg : Full schedule and entry list
DTM season opener at Spielberg : Full schedule and entry list. Abbi Pulling on rising opportunities for young female drivers : I wish I was eight again. Norris and Piastri react to Verstappen F1 exit story.
Sources: motorsport.com, motorsport.com, thejudge13.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by UEFA Champions League Winner - Atletico Madrid at 11.5% with $988K traded.
Top volume remains in UEFA Champions League Winner - Atletico Madrid.
Event leaders
Top volume: Atletico Madrid | 11.5% | $988K
Top odds: Bayern Munich | 37.0%
Top volume: Anaheim Ducks | 2.5% | $68K
Top odds: Colorado Avalanche | 28.5%
Popular events
Flyers beat East top seed Hurricanes 3 - 2 in SO and secure their first playoff berth since 2020. Flyers beat Hurricanes in 3 - 2 in a shootout and secure their first playoff berth since 2020. Flyers beat East top seed Hurricanes 3 - 2 in SO and secure their first playoff berth since 2020 | News , Sports , Jobs.
Sources: wral.com, wnep.com, mauinews.com
Behind Nvidia record profits : a growing climate disaster
Behind Nvidia record profits : a growing climate disaster. During Earth Week , DEC Announces More Than 20 Municipalities Certified as Climate Smart Communities. How To Care For The Environment Beyond Earth Day.
Sources: greenpeace.org, dec.ny.gov, blackenterprise.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑4k at 41.0% with $1K traded.
Top volume remains in Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑4k.
Event leaders
Popular events
+$30,396
+$24,078
+$12,679
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
Leaderboard
#1
Awaiting data
n/a
#2
Awaiting data
n/a
#3
Awaiting data
n/a
#4
Awaiting data
n/a
#5
Awaiting data
n/a