Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" Event volume totals $23M across outcomes. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?)" at 7.6% and $0 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?)" at 3.3% and $1M 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? - Yes
$0
Highest implied
Next Prime Minister of Hungary - Péter Magyar
98.9%
Top priced
Next Prime Minister of Hungary - Péter Magyar
98.9%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - April 30 leads the desk at 7.0% with $2M traded.
Lead stories
Republican congressional candidates lay out platforms in effort to unseat incumbents
Republican congressional candidates lay out platforms in effort to unseat incumbents. Republican congressional candidates lay out platforms in effort to unseat incumbents. WorkChoices helped end John Howard leadership . The policy ghost still haunts the Liberals.
Sources: idahostatejournal.com, idahopress.com, theconversation.com
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30? - Yes leads the desk at 3.3% with $1M traded.
Lead stories
The uncertainty and helplessness is overwhelming , says oil tanker captain stuck in Strait of Hormuz
The uncertainty and helplessness is overwhelming , says oil tanker captain stuck in Strait of Hormuz. Trump : US has total control over Strait of Hormuz. Iran Central Bank Confirms Strait of Hormuz Toll Revenue Deposited in Cash.
Sources: lbc.co.uk, thecable.ng, deccanchronicle.com
B4
Lead market: Which company has the best AI model end of April? - OpenAI leads the desk at 7.9% with $457K traded.
Lead stories
Grok Told Delusional User Suicide Was Readines as New AI Safety Tests Reveal Which Chatbots Fuel Psychosis and Which.... DeepSeek unveils V4 model , with rock - bottom prices and close integration with Huawei chips. China DeepSeek rolls out a long - anticipated update of its AI model.
Sources: ibtimes.co.uk, fortune.com, baltimoresun.com
B5
Lead market: Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes leads the desk at 3.9% with $211K traded.
Lead stories
Pope Leo speaks out against cardinal ordering blessings for gay couples
Pope Leo speaks out against cardinal ordering blessings for gay couples. Jonathan Pokluda Breaks Down the Real Reason You Keep Falling Back Into Old Patterns. CBN Animation - Superbook - Share the Gospel.
Sources: newsweek.com, relevantmagazine.com, securegiving.cbn.com
Eurovision 2026 : Spain RTVE Pulls Broadcast Amid Israel Inclusion
Eurovision 2026 : Spain RTVE Pulls Broadcast Amid Israel Inclusion. Eurojury 2026 Online Vote Opens. Eurovision 2026 : Paul Weller , IDLES , Massive Attack , Paloma Faith , Kneecap , Primal Scream , Sigur Rós lead 1000....
B6
Lead market: Will MegaETH launch a token by ___? - April 30, 2026 leads the desk at 95.7% with $874K traded.
Lead stories
MegaETH Hits 47K TPS As It Prepares For 11B Transaction Stress Test
MegaETH Hits 47K TPS As It Prepares For 11B Transaction Stress Test.
Sources: cointelegraph.com
Exodus Movement ( EXOD ) Wants to Make Stablecoin Spending as Easy as a Banking App
Exodus Movement ( EXOD ) Wants to Make Stablecoin Spending as Easy as a Banking App. Exodus Movement ( EXOD ) Wants to Make Stablecoin Spending as Easy as a Banking App. Compass Point Just Downgraded Circle ( CRCL ); So Why Is It Still Among the Best Ethereum Stocks to Buy ?.
Sources: insidermonkey.com, ,
B7
Lead market: Celtics leads the desk at 77.0% with $448K traded.
Lead stories
Ballon dOr : Ian Wright names Arsenal player to win award
Ballon dOr : Ian Wright names Arsenal player to win award. Ideal 2026 Summer Transfer Windows for the Premier League Biggest Spenders. FanDuel Promo Code : Claim $250 Bonus for MLB , NBA , and NHL Games on Friday.
Sources: dailypost.ng, bleacherreport.com, covers.com
Anthony Edwards guts out a Game 2 road win , and more takeaways from Timberwolves - Nuggets
Anthony Edwards guts out a Game 2 road win , and more takeaways from Timberwolves - Nuggets. Minnestota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets LIVE Score Updates in NBA Playoffs Game | 04 / 23 / 2026. FanDuel Promo Code : Claim $250 Bonus for Nuggets vs . Timberwolves , NBA Playoff Games Tonight.
B8
Lead market: Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑4k leads the desk at 32.0% with $3K traded.
Lead stories
DeSantis signs bill shutting down local climate change efforts
DeSantis signs bill shutting down local climate change efforts. JazzWorld Advances ESG and Climate Goals with Earth Hour and Decarbonization Efforts. How N . S . will meet emissions goals unclear if premier natural resource plans succeed.
Sources: wlrn.org, propakistani.pk, cbc.ca
Flyers beat East top seed Hurricanes 3 - 2 in SO and secure their first playoff berth since 2020
Flyers beat East top seed Hurricanes 3 - 2 in SO and secure their first playoff berth since 2020. Flyers beat Hurricanes in 3 - 2 in a shootout and secure their first playoff berth since 2020. Flyers beat East top seed Hurricanes 3 - 2 in SO and secure their first playoff berth since 2020 | News , Sports , Jobs.
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
98.9%
$99
Exiled Iranian prince calls on Germany Merz to halt talks with regime in Tehran – POLITICO
Exiled Iranian prince calls on Germany Merz to halt talks with regime in Tehran – POLITICO. Ceasefire continues , so does economic pressure on Iran , says White House press secretary | World News. Iran expands limited internet access while tightening control.
Sources: politico.eu, indianexpress.com, jpost.com
All the winners of the BAFTA Games Awards 2026
All the winners of the BAFTA Games Awards 2026. Lottery winner says dream of Yoo Jae - suk led to $340 , 000 jackpot. Clair Obscur : Expedition 33 Takes Home Another GOTY Win at the BAFTA Game Awards 2026.
Sources: nme.com, koreaherald.com, wccftech.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - April 30 at 7.0% with $2M traded.
Top volume remains in US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - April 30.
Event leaders
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?) | 3.5% | $903K
West Bengal Legislative Assembly Election Winner
Top volume: AITC | 43.4% | $720K
Top odds: BJP | 57.0%
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Top volume: Jon Ossoff | 5.8% | $642K
Top odds: Gavin Newsom | 26.3%
Peru Presidential Election Winner
Top volume: Roberto Sánchez Palomino | 24.4% | $564K
Top odds: Keiko Fujimori | 67.0%
Popular events
7.6%
+0.3pp
$11M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $580M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $551M0%
Senate banking committee grills Kevin Warsh , Trump pick for Fed chair. Senate banking committee grills Kevin Warsh , Trump pick for Fed chair. Senate banking committee grills Kevin Warsh , Trump pick for Fed chair.
Sources: fox13now.com, wptv.com, wkbw.com
Iran central bank confirms Strait of Hormuz toll revenue deposited in cash
Iran central bank confirms Strait of Hormuz toll revenue deposited in cash. Press statement by the Chancellor at the conference on securing the Strait of Hormuz. Trump orders US military to shoot and kill Iranian small boats choking Strait of Hormuz.
Sources: aninews.in, globalsecurity.org, wtsp.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30? - Yes at 3.3% with $1M traded.
Top volume remains in Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30? - Yes.
Lead event
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30? - Yes
Trading at 3.3% with $1M in volume.
Event leaders
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?) | 3.3% | $1M
Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Top volume & odds: Kevin Warsh | 94.5% | $756K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?) | 36.0% | $184K
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in April 2026?
Top volume & odds: ↑ $100 | 79.0% | $159K
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Top volume & odds: 0 (0 bps) | 40.1% | $40K
Trump administration vows crackdown on Chinese companies exploiting AI models made in US. Trump administration vows crackdown on Chinese companies exploiting AI models made in US. Trump administration vows crackdown on Chinese companies exploiting AI models made in US.
Sources: yahoo.com, wral.com, sun-sentinel.com
China DeepSeek rolls out a long - anticipated update of its AI model
China DeepSeek rolls out a long - anticipated update of its AI model. China DeepSeek rolls out a long - anticipated update of its AI model. China DeepSeek rolls out a long - anticipated update of its AI model.
Sources: ksat.com, ocregister.com, sandiegouniontribune.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Which company has the best AI model end of April? - OpenAI at 7.9% with $457K traded.
Top volume remains in Which company has the best AI model end of April? - OpenAI.
Lead event
Which company has the best AI model end of April? - OpenAI
Trading at 7.9% with $457K in volume.
Event leaders
Which company has the best AI model end of April?
Top volume: OpenAI | 7.9% | $457K
Top odds: Anthropic | 91.0%
Which company has the #1 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)
Top volume: OpenAI | 14.2% | $24K
Top odds: Anthropic | 82.0%
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12
Top volume: Successful splash down? | 1.4% | $6K
Top odds: Super Heavy booster explodes? | 2.4%
Sources: instinctmagazine.com, eurovoix.com, nme.com
THE SOUND OF MUSIC Tiny Vinyl Now Exclusively Available at Target
THE SOUND OF MUSIC Tiny Vinyl Now Exclusively Available at Target. Critics Are Down On The Michael Jackson Biopic , But Audiences Are REALLY Disagreeing. Michael Box Office Collection : Jaafar Jackson film breaks records with $12 . 6M US previews despite poor reviews.
Sources: broadwayworld.com, cinemablend.com, livemint.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes at 3.9% with $211K traded.
Top volume remains in Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes.
Event leaders
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 3.9% | $211K
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 21.0% | $44K
Top volume & odds: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 97.2% | $25K
GTA VI released before June 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (GTA VI released before June 2026?) | 1.3% | $15K
Popular events
Compass Point Just Downgraded Circle ( CRCL ); So Why Is It Still Among the Best Ethereum Stocks to Buy ?. What Is Contract Address in Crypto ? Meaning & Examples. Weekly Blockchain Blog - April 2026 # 3 | BakerHostetler.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, directionsmag.com, jdsupra.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by Will MegaETH launch a token by ___? - April 30, 2026 at 95.7% with $874K traded.
Top volume remains in Will MegaETH launch a token by ___? - April 30, 2026.
Lead event
Will MegaETH launch a token by ___? - April 30, 2026
Trading at 95.7% with $874K in volume.
Event leaders
Will MegaETH launch a token by ___?
Top volume & odds: April 30, 2026 | 95.7% | $874K
MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch?
Top volume: >$1B | 79.0% | $123K
Top odds: >$600M | 96.6%
Top volume & odds: June 30, 2026 | 48.2% | $66K
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?) | 9.2% | $38K
Popular events
Sources: nytimes.com, vavel.com, covers.com
Lakers vs . Rockets Game 3 Time , TV & Stream – April 24
Lakers vs . Rockets Game 3 Time , TV & Stream – April 24. Clint Capela finally responds to Deandre Ayton comments. Kevin Durant is Putting It on Himself to Improve the Rockets Offense.
Sources: am1300thezone.iheart.com, lakersnation.com, si.com
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Celtics | 77.0% | $448K
Top volume & odds: Colorado Avalanche | 25.9% | $45K
Sources: wral.com, wnep.com, mauinews.com
Renewable , EV sectors set to create massive green jobs in future : Dr . Jitendra Singh
Renewable , EV sectors set to create massive green jobs in future : Dr . Jitendra Singh. Levi Sued by Labor Group on Eve of Shareholder Climate Clash. Future Market Insights : Global Wood Pellets Market Outlook 2035 : How Drax Group plc , Enviva Inc . & Graanul Invest....
Sources: prokerala.com, finance.yahoo.com, finanznachrichten.de
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑4k at 32.0% with $3K traded.
Top volume remains in Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑4k.
Event leaders
Popular events
+$12,679
+$9,249
+$7,725
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
Leaderboard
#1
Awaiting data
n/a
#2
Awaiting data
n/a
#3
Awaiting data
n/a
#4
Awaiting data
n/a
#5
Awaiting data
n/a