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News Meets Markets
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Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" Event volume totals $23M across outcomes. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?)" at 7.4% and $0 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?)" at 5.0% and $2M 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? - Yes
$0
Highest implied
What will happen before GTA VI? - Drake releases Iceman
98.9%
Top priced
What will happen before GTA VI? - Drake releases Iceman
98.9%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - April 30 leads the desk at 16.0% with $2M traded.
Lead stories
Atmosphere of terror : Congress rallies behind Kharge as ECI deadline over terrorist remark looms
Atmosphere of terror : Congress rallies behind Kharge as ECI deadline over terrorist remark looms. Republican congressional candidates lay out platforms in effort to unseat incumbents. Republican congressional candidates lay out platforms in effort to unseat incumbents.
Sources: aninews.in, idahostatejournal.com, idahopress.com
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30? - Yes leads the desk at 5.0% with $2M traded.
Lead stories
New scam promises ships safe passage through Strait of Hormuz : report
New scam promises ships safe passage through Strait of Hormuz : report. Iran accused of laying more mines in Strait of Hormuz after satellite image released. Press statement by the Chancellor at the conference on securing the Strait of Hormuz.
Sources: fox13news.com, mirror.co.uk, globalsecurity.org
New Fed chair in an evolving economy : What Warsh might face
New Fed chair in an evolving economy : What Warsh might face. Electric wheelchair explodes outside Florida home. Gov jets to California for Dem campaign duty.
B4
Lead market: Which company has the best AI model end of April? - OpenAI leads the desk at 30.1% with $278K traded.
Lead stories
Tesla Q1 revenue rises , driven by EV sales and FSD subscriptions
Tesla Q1 revenue rises , driven by EV sales and FSD subscriptions.
Sources: techcrunch.com
White House accuses China of copying American AI models in industrial - scale campaign
White House accuses China of copying American AI models in industrial - scale campaign. Trump administration vows crackdown on Chinese companies exploiting AI models made in US. Trump administration vows crackdown on Chinese companies exploiting AI models made in US.
Sources: edition.cnn.com, ,
B5
Lead market: Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 leads the desk at 21.0% with $130K traded.
Lead stories
XODIAC gains buzz with fully AI - generated MV Alibi : Moonlight Blood Alliance
XODIAC gains buzz with fully AI - generated MV Alibi : Moonlight Blood Alliance. The Devil Wears Prada 2 returns with fun , fashion and uncertainty of the moment. Fun , fashion and changing times.
Sources: allkpop.com, interaksyon.philstar.com, odt.co.nz
B6
Lead market: Will MegaETH launch a token by ___? - April 30, 2026 leads the desk at 6.0% with $115K traded.
Lead stories
Ramp Network Launches Multichain Wallet to Cut Third - Party Handoffs
Ramp Network Launches Multichain Wallet to Cut Third - Party Handoffs.
Sources: cointelegraph.com
1 Cryptocurrency to Buy Before It Goes Parabolic and Overtakes Ethereum Market Cap
1 Cryptocurrency to Buy Before It Goes Parabolic and Overtakes Ethereum Market Cap. Breakout - Engine Top Presale Crypto 2026 : Why Blazpay. North Korean hackers suspected of US$300mil crypto heist.
Sources: fool.com, openpr.com,
B7
Lead market: UEFA Champions League Winner - Atletico Madrid leads the desk at 11.5% with $248K traded.
Lead stories
FIFA confirms what on the line for Downs
FIFA confirms what on the line for Downs. Virgil van Dijk scores last gasp winner as Liverpool beat Everton in dramatic Merseyside derby. City beat Arsenal to seize title race control.
Sources: kickoff.com, caughtoffside.com, tribune.com.pk
Big Los For F1 If Verstappen Quits , Say McLaren Rivals
Big Los For F1 If Verstappen Quits , Say McLaren Rivals. Nigel Mansell says Max Verstappen quitting threats rhetoric , but all Formula 1 drivers disgruntled. Prince William tries to squeeze into Formula E car on Loui birthday.
B8
Lead market: Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑4k leads the desk at 32.0% with $670 traded.
Lead stories
Boston Public Health Commission : Person with measles passed through Logan Airport - Boston News , Weather , Sports.
Sources: whdh.com
Lincoln reports progress on Climate Action Plan amid federal policy challenges
Lincoln reports progress on Climate Action Plan amid federal policy challenges. Reducing the Environmental Impact of Modern Data Centers. DS Group strengthens portfolio - wide climate action strategy on Earth Day.
Sources: 1011now.com,
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
LIZA ! AT 80 Celebration To Feature Kristin Chenoweth , Donna Murphy , Beth Leavel and More
LIZA ! AT 80 Celebration To Feature Kristin Chenoweth , Donna Murphy , Beth Leavel and More. AR Future Projects Awards 2026 celebrate overhaul of dying shopping mall | News. ITV Im A Celeb vote open as winner revealed - and it not Adam Thomas.
Sources: broadwayworld.com, archinect.com, mirror.co.uk
Rockhold drops Minnesota Senate bid , runs for House seat instead
Rockhold drops Minnesota Senate bid , runs for House seat instead. Rep . David Scott , a Georgia Democrat seeking his 13th term in Congress , dies at age 80. RFK Jr . goes before the Senate . One lawmaker competing loyalties will be on display.
Sources: inforum.com, clickondetroit.com, timesfreepress.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - April 30 at 16.0% with $2M traded.
Top volume remains in US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - April 30.
Event leaders
Peru Presidential Election Winner
Top volume: Roberto Sánchez Palomino | 22.6% | $1M
Top odds: Keiko Fujimori | 63.0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?) | 31.0% | $754K
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?) | 3.5% | $731K
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
Top volume: April 30 | 9.6% | $578K
Top odds: December 31 | 42.0%
7.3%
+0.8pp
$11M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $578M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $549M0%
Trump orders US military to shoot and kill Iranian small boats choking Strait of Hormuz
Trump orders US military to shoot and kill Iranian small boats choking Strait of Hormuz. Strait of Hormuz Traffic Grinds to a Halt Again as Iran Fires on Passing Ships. How is there still a ceasefire as the US blockades the Strait of Hormuz and Iran seizes ships ?.
Sources: wtsp.com, oilprice.com, abc.net.au
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30? - Yes at 5.0% with $2M traded.
Top volume remains in Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30? - Yes.
Lead event
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30? - Yes
Trading at 5.0% with $2M in volume.
Event leaders
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?) | 5.0% | $2M
Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Top volume & odds: Kevin Warsh | 94.6% | $977K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?) | 43.0% | $214K
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in April 2026?
Top volume: ↑ $120 | 11.1% | $183K
Top odds: ↑ $100 | 65.0%
Top volume & odds: No change | 93.0% | $116K
Want SpaceX Exposure ? These 3 AI Titans Have Previously Invested in What Should Be Wall Street Largest - Ever IPO. AI startup Anthropic commits $100 billion to Amazon AWS over next 10 years - WSVN 7News | Miami News , Weather , Sports. SpaceX says it can buy AI coding tool Cursor for $60B later this year.
Sources: fool.com, wsvn.com, finance.yahoo.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Which company has the best AI model end of April? - OpenAI at 30.1% with $278K traded.
Top volume remains in Which company has the best AI model end of April? - OpenAI.
Lead event
Which company has the best AI model end of April? - OpenAI
Trading at 30.1% with $278K in volume.
Event leaders
Which company has the best AI model end of April?
Top volume: OpenAI | 30.1% | $278K
Top odds: Anthropic | 70.0%
Which company has best AI model end of June?
Top volume: xAI | 2.4% | $20K
Top odds: Anthropic | 50.9%
Top volume & odds: June 30, 2026 | 23.0% | $13K
Which company has the #1 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)
Top volume & odds: Anthropic | 73.0% | $6K
Popular events
What Does the Church Teach About Christian Zionism ? ( Trending with Timmerie ). How to disciple the new wave of religious young men. Jonathan Pokluda Breaks Down the Real Reason You Keep Falling Back Into Old Patterns.
Eurovision 2026 : Spain RTVE Pulls Broadcast Amid Israel Inclusion
Eurovision 2026 : Spain RTVE Pulls Broadcast Amid Israel Inclusion. Eurojury 2026 Online Vote Opens. Eurovision 2026 : Paul Weller , IDLES , Massive Attack , Paloma Faith , Kneecap , Primal Scream , Sigur Rós lead 1000....
Sources: instinctmagazine.com, eurovoix.com, nme.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 at 21.0% with $130K traded.
Top volume remains in Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31.
Lead event
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31
Trading at 21.0% with $130K in volume.
Event leaders
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 21.0% | $130K
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 3.9% | $129K
GTA VI released before June 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (GTA VI released before June 2026?) | 1.3% | $19K
Popular events
It Time Bitcoin Suddenly Braced For Price Shock After Surprise BlackRock Flip
It Time Bitcoin Suddenly Braced For Price Shock After Surprise BlackRock Flip. Bitcoin Power Laws Predicts When Price Will Hit $1 , 000 , 000. Cryptocurrencies : Bitcoin Reaches 11 - Week High.
Sources: forbes.com, newsbtc.com, etftrends.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by Will MegaETH launch a token by ___? - April 30, 2026 at 6.0% with $115K traded.
Top volume remains in Will MegaETH launch a token by ___? - April 30, 2026.
Event leaders
Will MegaETH launch a token by ___?
Top volume: April 30, 2026 | 6.0% | $115K
Top odds: September 30, 2026 | 98.4%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch?
Top volume: >$1B | 79.0% | $82K
Top odds: >$600M | 94.0%
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
Top volume & odds: ↑ 80,000 | 95.2% | $77K
Popular events
Sources: channelstv.com, grandprix247.com, geo.tv
Arkansas Construction Hall of Fame tips its hard hat to builders
Arkansas Construction Hall of Fame tips its hard hat to builders. Lando Norris says McLaren still not where they want but a lot of potential ahead of Japan. Tackling myths about cash pay in construction.
Sources: katv.com, grandprix247.com, cantechletter.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by UEFA Champions League Winner - Atletico Madrid at 11.5% with $248K traded.
Top volume remains in UEFA Champions League Winner - Atletico Madrid.
Event leaders
Top volume: Atletico Madrid | 11.5% | $248K
Top odds: Bayern Munich | 36.0%
Popular events
2026 - 04 - 23 | ArcelorMittal publishes its 2025 Sustainability Report : Safer , smarter growth | NYSE : MT. Earth Day cleanup in Uptown Charlotte highlights push for cleaner air , lower emissions. ArcelorMittal S . A .: ArcelorMittal publishes its 2025 Sustainability Report : Safer , smarter growth.
Sources: stockhouse.com, wbtv.com, finanznachrichten.de
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑4k at 32.0% with $670 traded.
Top volume remains in Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑4k.
Event leaders
Popular events
+$12,679
+$9,249
+$7,725
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
Leaderboard
#1
Awaiting data
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#2
Awaiting data
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#3
Awaiting data
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#4
Awaiting data
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#5
Awaiting data
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