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News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" Event volume totals $20M across outcomes. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?)" at 7.9% and $0 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?)" at 22.0% and $2M 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? - Yes
$0
Highest implied
USD.AI FDV above ___ one day after launch? - $100M
98.8%
Top priced
USD.AI FDV above ___ one day after launch? - $100M
98.8%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 - Jon Stewart leads the desk at 2.3% with $2M traded.
Lead stories
Have guts ? Face me directly : Didi dares BJP after I - T raids | India News
Have guts ? Face me directly : Didi dares BJP after I - T raids | India News. A Democrat Winning in Trump Country Why Isnt Andy Beshear a 2028 Favorite ?. HM Shah to lead BJP roadshows in Tamil Nadu today.
Sources: timesofindia.indiatimes.com, newsweek.com, prokerala.com
Hormuz standoff : Trump misread his leverage and overplayed his hand
Hormuz standoff : Trump misread his leverage and overplayed his hand. Iran fully closes Strait of Hormuz over US blockade , fires on ships. Iran closes Hormuz Strait again , as Trump warns against blackmail.
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30? - Yes leads the desk at 22.0% with $2M traded.
Lead stories
Iran imposes strict navigation rules in Strait of Hormuz
Iran imposes strict navigation rules in Strait of Hormuz. Trump left red faced as Iran makes dramatic Strait of Hormuz U - turn. Iran closes Strait of Hormuz again , accuses US of breaking promises by continuing blockade.
Sources: rediff.com, express.co.uk, ibtimes.co.in
Trump pointless Fed threats continue - Insurance News
Trump pointless Fed threats continue - Insurance News. Virginia General Assembly : Will they have a budget proposal ?.
B4
Lead market: Lead Bank in SpaceX’s IPO? - JPMorgan leads the desk at 2.2% with $156K traded.
Lead stories
Pomerantz LLP Pursues Class Action Lawsuit Against Gemini Space Station , ...
Pomerantz LLP Pursues Class Action Lawsuit Against Gemini Space Station , .... These 2 Genius AI Stocks Are Your Best Way to Own Anthropic Before Its IPO. Srinivas Narayanan , Kevin Weil , Bill Peebles : OpenAI lost 3 executives in one day as science division shuts down.
Sources: pr-inside.com, finance.yahoo.com, livemint.com
B5
Lead market: Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 leads the desk at 22.0% with $392K traded.
Lead stories
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie Box Office Record Proves A Major 2026 Lesson
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie Box Office Record Proves A Major 2026 Lesson. EXCLUSIVE : My conscience said I shouldnt do Aashqui 2 , reveals Sameer Anjaan 2 : Bollywood News. Super Mario Galaxy Movie tops box office for 3rd consecutive week.
Sources: screenrant.com, bollywoodhungama.com, pagesix.com
Sister Clare Crockett : Londonderry nun who could become a saint
Sister Clare Crockett : Londonderry nun who could become a saint. The New York Times News Quiz , April 17 , 2026. Christ and righteousness consciousness - Newsday Zimbabwe.
B6
Lead market: MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch? - >$2B leads the desk at 27.0% with $66K traded.
Lead stories
Ramp Network Launches Multichain Wallet to Cut Third - Party Handoffs
Ramp Network Launches Multichain Wallet to Cut Third - Party Handoffs.
Sources: cointelegraph.com
Blazpay Neural - Edge Crypto Presale 2026 Expands as Beam
Blazpay Neural - Edge Crypto Presale 2026 Expands as Beam. This Cryptocurrency Has Quietly Outperformed Bitcoin Over the Last Year. This Cryptocurrency Has Quietly Outperformed Bitcoin Over the Last Year.
Sources: openpr.com, finance.yahoo.com,
B7
Lead market: UEFA Champions League Winner - Atletico Madrid leads the desk at 11.9% with $441K traded.
Lead stories
Ancelotti chooses the winner of the Champions League for this season
Ancelotti chooses the winner of the Champions League for this season. Leon fires Sundowns into African Champions League final. Sergio Aguero urges £86m Arsenal target to join another club this summer.
Sources: gazetaexpress.com, thepeninsulaqatar.com, metro.co.uk
George Russell reacts to Max Verstappen contemplating his F1 future
George Russell reacts to Max Verstappen contemplating his F1 future. Carson Kvapil on pole for NASCAR OReilly Series race at Kansas. George Russell backs F1 to survive possible Max Verstappen exit.
B8
Lead market: Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑3k leads the desk at 69.0% with $528 traded.
Lead stories
Misguided Repair the World Climate Philanthropy
Misguided Repair the World Climate Philanthropy. From sea breeze to power blades Cox Bazar leads wind energy push. Letter : Do your part to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Sources: townhall.com, thedailystar.net, postbulletin.com
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
2 candidates with starkly different visions for Peru vie for a runoff spot
2 candidates with starkly different visions for Peru vie for a runoff spot. Two candidates with starkly different visions for Peru vie for a runoff spot. Peru interim president defers $3 . 5 billion fighter jet purchase to the next government – Winnipeg Free Press.
Sources: yahoo.com, latimes.com, winnipegfreepress.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 - Jon Stewart at 2.3% with $2M traded.
Top volume remains in Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 - Jon Stewart.
Event leaders
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Top volume: Jon Stewart | 2.3% | $2M
Top odds: Gavin Newsom | 27.4%
Peru Presidential Election Winner
Top volume: Roberto Sánchez Palomino | 22.5% | $762K
Top odds: Keiko Fujimori | 66.0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?) | 1.1% | $760K
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?) | 33.0% | $708K
6.9%
-0.2pp
$11M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $567M+1%
Presidential election
Event volume $539M0%
Sources: insurancenewsnet.com, pilotonline.com
Tanker takes fire as Iran closes Strait of Hormuz ( CL1 : COM )
Tanker takes fire as Iran closes Strait of Hormuz ( CL1 : COM ). Crude oil slumps after reopening of Hormuz drains geopolitical risk from markets. Goldman sees softer oil demand , flags two - sided risks to 2026 price outlook.
Sources: seekingalpha.com, geo.tv, thehindubusinessline.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30? - Yes at 22.0% with $2M traded.
Top volume remains in Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30? - Yes.
Lead event
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30? - Yes
Trading at 22.0% with $2M in volume.
Event leaders
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?) | 22.0% | $2M
Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Top volume: Judy Shelton | 1.4% | $387K
Top odds: Kevin Warsh | 94.4%
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in April 2026?
Top volume: ↑ $120 | 8.3% | $206K
Top odds: ↑ $100 | 38.0%
Meta may cut 8000 jobs on 20 May despite making billions in profit : Report.
Sources: digit.in
Elon Musk Tells TSMC CEO That Terafab Wouldnt Exist if the Foundry Could Keep Up With His Chip Demand. Musk Toasts Tesla US Lead But BYD Is 3X Bigger Globally. Tesla expands robotaxi service to Dallas , Houston.
Sources: wccftech.com, finance.yahoo.com, marketscreener.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Lead Bank in SpaceX’s IPO? - JPMorgan at 2.2% with $156K traded.
Top volume remains in Lead Bank in SpaceX’s IPO? - JPMorgan.
Event leaders
Which company has the best AI model end of April?
Top volume: OpenAI | 6.0% | $100K
Top odds: Anthropic | 94.0%
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?) | 3.7% | $21K
Popular events
Sources: bbc.co.uk, nytimes.com, newsday.co.zw
What we know so far about Eurovision Song Contest Asia 2026 , with Philippines confirmed among participants. Eurovision 2026 watch party confirmed for Newcastle with themed drinks and fancy dress contest. Eurojury 2026 Online Vote Opens.
Sources: interaksyon.philstar.com, chroniclelive.co.uk, eurovoix.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 at 22.0% with $392K traded.
Top volume remains in Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31.
Lead event
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31
Trading at 22.0% with $392K in volume.
Event leaders
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 22.0% | $392K
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 3.9% | $66K
Top volume & odds: Finland | 37.0% | $29K
Popular events
Bitcoin Breakout Confirmed , But Is It Real Or A Bull Trap ?
Bitcoin Breakout Confirmed , But Is It Real Or A Bull Trap ?. Bold Prediction : Bitcoin Will Hit $140 , 000 This Year , According to This Wall Street Investment Bank. Can Bitcoin Buyers Join The Breakout Party ? Analyst Says Not Yet.
Sources: newsbtc.com, fool.com, newsbtc.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch? - >$2B at 27.0% with $66K traded.
Top volume remains in MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch? - >$2B.
Lead event
MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch? - >$2B
Trading at 27.0% with $66K in volume.
Event leaders
MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch?
Top volume: >$2B | 27.0% | $66K
Top odds: >$600M | 91.0%
Top volume & odds: June 30, 2026 | 58.5% | $37K
Top volume: June 30, 2026 | 3.7% | $24K
Top odds: December 31, 2026 | 19.0%
Popular events
Sources: motorsport.com, yardbarker.com, crash.net
EXCLUSIVE : F1 ACADEMY champion Doriane Pin on learning a lot in new Mercedes role and working towards her F1 goal.
Sources: formula1.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by UEFA Champions League Winner - Atletico Madrid at 11.9% with $441K traded.
Top volume remains in UEFA Champions League Winner - Atletico Madrid.
Event leaders
Top volume: Atletico Madrid | 11.9% | $441K
Top odds: Bayern Munich | 35.0%
Top volume & odds: George Russell | 42.0% | $21K
Top volume & odds: Kylian Mbappe | 66.0% | $534
Popular events
BISHOP PAIUTE TRIBE CELEBRATES CALIFORNIA SECOND TRIBAL SOMAH FUNDED SOLAR INSTALLATION - Sierra Wave : Eastern Sierr.... Islington Council mitigates climate change in homes. Typhoon No . 4 Moves North Southeast of Ogasawara Islands.
Sources: sierrawave.net, times-series.co.uk, newsonjapan.com
Record US drought sparks worries about fires , water supply and food prices
Record US drought sparks worries about fires , water supply and food prices. Portugal Energy Advantage : From Sustainability to Strategic Competitiveness.
Sources: 12news.com, theportugalnews.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑3k at 69.0% with $528 traded.
Top volume remains in Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑3k.
Event leaders
Popular events
+$13,468
+$9,769
+$7,235
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
Leaderboard
#1
Awaiting data
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#2
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#3
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#4
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#5
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