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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" Event volume totals $20M across outcomes. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?)" at 8.7% and $0 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?)" at 26.0% and $750K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? - Yes
$0
Highest implied
98.9%
Top priced
98.9%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
98.9%
$143K
B1
Lead market: US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - April 22 leads the desk at 23.0% with $2M traded.
Lead stories
US Iran war news live : Second US - sanctioned supertanker enters Gulf via Hormuz despite blockade
US Iran war news live : Second US - sanctioned supertanker enters Gulf via Hormuz despite blockade.
Sources: moneycontrol.com
Peru faces a presidential runoff as election count drags on after ballot delays
Peru faces a presidential runoff as election count drags on after ballot delays. Allies of disgraced former presidents lead in Peru presidential election. Peru vote count reaches 90 %, second place still tied.
Sources: ,
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30? - Yes leads the desk at 26.0% with $750K traded.
Lead stories
FACT CHECK : PH vessels pass through Strait of Hormuz , contrary to claim
FACT CHECK : PH vessels pass through Strait of Hormuz , contrary to claim. Chinese tanker retreat from the Strait of Hormuz shows how Trump blockade is working. Im opening Strait of Hormuz for China , insists Trump as he says President Xi will give me a big , fat , hug.
Sources: rappler.com, nypost.com, lbc.co.uk
B4
Lead market: AI bubble burst by...? - December 31, 2026 leads the desk at 6.6% with $47K traded.
Lead stories
AI Could Democratize One of Tech Most Valuable Resources
AI Could Democratize One of Tech Most Valuable Resources. AI Companies To Play Bigger Role in CVE Program , Says CISA. OpenAI introduces GPT 5 . 4 Cyber , an AI model built for cybersecurity defence : All details.
Sources: wired.com, infosecurity-magazine.com, digit.in
OpenAI launches GPT 5 . 4 Cyber to boost AI powered cybersecurity , eyes lead over Claude Mythos
OpenAI launches GPT 5 . 4 Cyber to boost AI powered cybersecurity , eyes lead over Claude Mythos. Microsoft is working on yet another OpenClaw - like agent. AI - boosted hacks with Anthropic Mythos could have dire consequences for banks.
B5
Lead market: Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes leads the desk at 3.9% with $138K traded.
Lead stories
Joy Behar claims Jesus never claimed to be Messiah
Joy Behar claims Jesus never claimed to be Messiah. Pete Ricketts on Trump AI image : There is only one Jesus Christ. Trump posts yet another AI - generated post of Jesus after previous controversy.
Sources: christianpost.com, 1011now.com, thegrio.com
Eurovision Your Decision ( 2026 ) returns to Royal Vauxhall Tavern , 6 - 16 May 2026
Eurovision Your Decision ( 2026 ) returns to Royal Vauxhall Tavern , 6 - 16 May 2026. Airdate : Eurovision Song Contest 2026. Episode 20 – ( November 18 , 2025 ) – TDoR & Trans Awareness Week.
B6
Lead market: MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch? - >$1B leads the desk at 49.0% with $48K traded.
Lead stories
The Perp Dex That Processed $360 Billion Just Went Live on Crypto Most Experimental Blockchain
The Perp Dex That Processed $360 Billion Just Went Live on Crypto Most Experimental Blockchain.
Sources: benzinga.com
Bitcoin Hidden Backdoor ? The Mystery of Satoshi Override Key
Bitcoin Hidden Backdoor ? The Mystery of Satoshi Override Key. Bitcoin Quantum Migration May Reveal Number of Satoshi Coins : Adam Back. Cardano Hoskinson says Bitcoin quantum fix cant save Satoshi Nakamoto BTC.
Sources: newsbtc.com, ,
B7
Lead market: Warriors leads the desk at 36.0% with $1M traded.
Lead stories
Golden State Warriors vs Los Angeles Clippers LIVE Score Updates in NBA Play - In Game | 04 / 15 / 2026. Three non - Steph Curry keys to Warriors beating Clippers – NBC Bay Area. OKC Thunder Playoff Schedule : Dates , Times , Opponents , TV Channel.
Sources: vavel.com, nbcbayarea.com, si.com
PSG Dominate Liverpool to Reach UCL Semis , Eye Historic Title Defence
PSG Dominate Liverpool to Reach UCL Semis , Eye Historic Title Defence. Arsenal , Bayern Munich seal Champions League semi - final spots. Lookman seals Champions League SF berth for Atleti.
B8
Lead market: Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑3k leads the desk at 83.0% with $304 traded.
Lead stories
biBerk Business Insurance Offers Key Insights on How Sustainability in Business Helps the Environment Including Tips.... biBerk Business Insurance Offers Key Insights on How Sustainability in Business Helps the Environment Including Tips.... biBerk Business Insurance Offers Key Insights on How Sustainability in Business Helps the Environment Including Tips....
Sources: bostonstar.com, memphissun.com,
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
98.7%
$605K
Did China Sell Iran the Spy Satellite It Used Against U . S . Bases ?
Did China Sell Iran the Spy Satellite It Used Against U . S . Bases ?. Iranian authorities dismantle terror group linked to Mossad , Zionist media. Iranian authorities dismantle terror group linked to Mossad , Zionist media.
Sources: pjmedia.com, jpost.com, jpost.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - April 22 at 23.0% with $2M traded.
Top volume remains in US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - April 22.
Event leaders
Peru Presidential Election Winner
Top volume: Rafael López Aliaga | 18.0% | $2M
Top odds: Keiko Fujimori | 65.0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?) | 1.7% | $919K
Next Prime Minister of Hungary
Top volume & odds: Péter Magyar | 98.7% | $605K
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?) | 31.0% | $584K
7.6%
+1.4pp
$10M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $557M+1%
Presidential election
Event volume $528M+1%
Prosecutors sought access to Federal Reserve building as Trump threatens to fire Powell. Trump Says He Will Have to Fire Jerome Powell If He Stays at the Fed After His Term Expires. Trump threatens to fire Powell if the Fed Chair decides to stay on after his term ends next month.
Sources: latimes.com, ibtimes.com, news4jax.com
Oil prices fall for 2nd day as Donald Trump signals possible US - Iran talks
Oil prices fall for 2nd day as Donald Trump signals possible US - Iran talks. Oil prices fall for 2nd day as Donald Trump signals possible US - Iran talks. Goldman Oil Guru Sees Mixed New For Prices : Slowing Draws Vs Rising Flows.
Sources: prokerala.com, ibtimes.co.in, zerohedge.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30? - Yes at 26.0% with $750K traded.
Top volume remains in Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30? - Yes.
Lead event
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30? - Yes
Trading at 26.0% with $750K in volume.
Event leaders
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?) | 26.0% | $750K
Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Top volume & odds: Kevin Warsh | 94.2% | $273K
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in April 2026?
Top volume & odds: ↓ $85 | 78.0% | $201K
Top volume & odds: Largest Company end of April? | 98.9% | $143K
Sources: businesstoday.in, businessghana.com, bworldonline.com
OpenAI Stratospheric Valuation Draws Investor Scrutiny As It Scrambles To Capture Enterprise Market
OpenAI Stratospheric Valuation Draws Investor Scrutiny As It Scrambles To Capture Enterprise Market. Anthropic $800 Billion Buzz Threatens To Dethrone OpenAI. OpenAI announces restricted - access cybersecurity model.
Sources: zerohedge.com, benzinga.com, digitaljournal.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by AI bubble burst by...? - December 31, 2026 at 6.6% with $47K traded.
Top volume remains in AI bubble burst by...? - December 31, 2026.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: December 31, 2026 | 6.6% | $47K
Which company has the best AI model end of April?
Top volume: OpenAI | 4.0% | $24K
Top odds: Anthropic | 94.0%
What will SpaceX's public ticker be?
Top volume: $SEX | 2.0% | $18K
Top odds: Other (incl $SPCX) | 60.5%
Which company has best AI model end of June?
Top volume: OpenAI | 9.0% | $14K
Top odds: Anthropic | 65.3%
Popular events
Sources: qxmagazine.com, tvtonight.com.au, joy.org.au
Luka Dončić and Cade Cunningham are eligible for NBA awards after successful appeals of 65 - game rule. Luka Dončić and Cade Cunningham are eligible for NBA awards after successful appeals of 65 - game rule. Doncic , Cunningham eligible for MVP race : NBA.
Sources: kare11.com, wzzm13.com, mtdemocrat.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes at 3.9% with $138K traded.
Top volume remains in Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes.
Event leaders
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 3.9% | $138K
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 18.0% | $72K
Top volume & odds: Cooper Flagg | 63.4% | $57K
Popular events
Eurovision Winner 2026 - Italy
Vol $81K
Vol $72K
FinancialContent - The Bitcoin Treasury Titan : An In - Depth Research Feature on MicroStrategy ( MSTR ). FinancialContent - MicroStrategy Shares Plunge 6 . 5 % as Bitcoin Breaks Below $72 , 000 Support. MicroStrategy Just Broke Through Its 50 - Day Moving Average . Should You Buy MSTR Stock Here ?.
Sources: markets.financialcontent.com, markets.financialcontent.com, finance.yahoo.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch? - >$1B at 49.0% with $48K traded.
Top volume remains in MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch? - >$1B.
Lead event
MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch? - >$1B
Trading at 49.0% with $48K in volume.
Event leaders
MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch?
Top volume: >$1B | 49.0% | $48K
Top odds: >$600M | 78.0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?) | 8.4% | $35K
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ?
Top volume: June 30, 2026 | 2.9% | $33K
Top odds: December 31, 2026 | 11.0%
Sources: dailypioneer.com, premiumtimesng.com, prokerala.com
F1 boss responds to Max Verstappen criticism of 2026 rules : His voice has to be listened to
F1 boss responds to Max Verstappen criticism of 2026 rules : His voice has to be listened to. EXCLUSIVE : F1 ACADEMY champion Doriane Pin on learning a lot in new Mercedes role and working towards her F1 goal. The Rally1 rookie proving he belongs in the WRC top flight.
Sources: motorsport.com, formula1.com, motorsport.com
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Bayern Munich | 34.0% | $777K
Top volume & odds: Kylian Mbappe | 61.0% | $253
Popular events
Vol $1M
Why Solar Powers the Renewable Boom : Solar Wind Benefits , Emission Cuts & Green Transition
Why Solar Powers the Renewable Boom : Solar Wind Benefits , Emission Cuts & Green Transition. Sappi Recognized with Climate Performance Award from ClimateWork Maine. Democrats vying for Wisconsin governor sound off on data centers , climate accountability during forum.
Sources: natureworldnews.com, paperage.com, wpr.org
Democrats Vying for WI Governor Take on Data Centers , Climate Change
Democrats Vying for WI Governor Take on Data Centers , Climate Change. Brazil Renewable Energy 2026 : Wind , Solar & H2. As energy costs rise , some states back off ambitious climate goals.
Sources: urbanmilwaukee.com, riotimesonline.com, sandiegouniontribune.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑3k at 83.0% with $304 traded.
Top volume remains in Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑3k.
Event leaders
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
Top volume & odds: ↑3k | 83.0% | $304
Popular events
+$13,468
+$7,620
+$7,235
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
Leaderboard
#1
Awaiting data
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#2
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#3
Awaiting data
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#4
Awaiting data
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#5
Awaiting data
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