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News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" Event volume totals $20M across outcomes. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?)" at 8.7% and $0 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Fed decision in April?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "No change" at 98.8% and $910K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? - Yes
$0
Highest implied
Next Prime Minister of Hungary - Péter Magyar
98.9%
Top priced
Next Prime Minister of Hungary - Péter Magyar
98.9%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: Colombia Chamber of Representatives Election: 3rd Place - Historic Pact for Colombia (PH) leads the desk at 1.7% with $2M traded.
Lead stories
Report : 20 % of Spain Population Is Now Foreign - Born
Report : 20 % of Spain Population Is Now Foreign - Born. The Repair Shop guest blown away as pride of place falling apart item fixed. Report : 20 % of Spain Population Is Now Foreign - Born - American Renaissance.
Sources: breitbart.com, liverpoolecho.co.uk, amren.com
Peru faces presidential runoff as election count drags on after ballot delays
Peru faces presidential runoff as election count drags on after ballot delays. Peru faces presidential runoff as election count drags on after ballot delays – Winnipeg Free Press. Peru faces presidential runoff as election count drags on after ballot delays.
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Fed decision in April? - No change leads the desk at 98.8% with $910K traded.
Lead stories
Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee : The longer the war goes on , the more a rate cut gets pushed off. Fed nominee Kevin Warsh faces impossible task in rate cuts. QUESTIONS FOR KEVIN WARSH KEY ISSUES ARE FEDERAL RESERVE INDEPENDENCE , INFLATION CONTROL.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, washingtonexaminer.com, insurancenewsnet.com
B4
Lead market: AI bubble burst by...? - December 31, 2026 leads the desk at 16.2% with $70K traded.
Lead stories
Study finds top AI models still struggle with clinical reasoning
Study finds top AI models still struggle with clinical reasoning. Why Pay the SpaceX Premium When You Can Invest in xAI and Anthropic for Just $35 ? Here How .. OpenAI Has a New GPT - 5 . 4 - Cyber Model . Here Why You Cant Use It.
Sources: news-medical.net, fool.com, cnet.com
Anthropic adds routines to redesigned Claude Code , here how it works
Anthropic adds routines to redesigned Claude Code , here how it works. Billionaire Michael Burry : Anthropic Is a Serious Threat to Palantir Stock. Canada AI minister says Anthropic withholding Mythos is responsible - National.
B5
Lead market: Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes leads the desk at 3.9% with $239K traded.
Lead stories
Opening of new Bacolod temple church set
Opening of new Bacolod temple church set. Joe Rogan Mocks Trump Idiotic Excuse for AI - Generated Jesus Post on Truth Social. Sara Haines corrects Joy Behar claim Jesus never called himself Messiah.
Sources: sunstar.com.ph, thedailybeast.com, foxnews.com
Eurovision Your Decision ( 2026 ) returns to Royal Vauxhall Tavern , 6 - 16 May 2026
Eurovision Your Decision ( 2026 ) returns to Royal Vauxhall Tavern , 6 - 16 May 2026.
B6
Lead market: Kraken IPO by ___ ? - December 31, 2026 leads the desk at 69.0% with $47K traded.
Lead stories
Crypto Exchange Kraken Prepares for IPO
Crypto Exchange Kraken Prepares for IPO. Crypto exchange Kraken confirms it has confidentially filed for an IPO. Deutsche Börse Acquires Kraken Stake in $200M Deal.
Sources: pymnts.com, cnbc.com, finance.yahoo.com
Bitcoin Price Prediction : BTC Holds $74K Can MACD Golden Cross and IBIT Rebound Push It to $85K ?
Bitcoin Price Prediction : BTC Holds $74K Can MACD Golden Cross and IBIT Rebound Push It to $85K ?. Bitcoin Price Will Hit $21M , Claims Michael Saylor , Following Strategy Latest $1B Purchase. Bitcoin Price Roars Past $76 , 000 As Short Squeeze Continues.
B7
Lead market: UEFA Champions League Winner - Atletico Madrid leads the desk at 10.4% with $663K traded.
Lead stories
Lauren James : How can Sarina Wiegman and England get the best from talented forward ?
Lauren James : How can Sarina Wiegman and England get the best from talented forward ?. Ballon dOr winner Dembele shines at Anfield , sends PSG to Champions League semi - finals. Barcelona eliminated from Champions League , Atletico advances to semifinals.
Sources: bbc.com, gazetaexpress.com, gazetaexpress.com
Hugo Ekitike injury update after Liverpool striker is stretchered off vs PSG
Hugo Ekitike injury update after Liverpool striker is stretchered off vs PSG. Digging Deeper Into Liverpool 0 - 2 ( 0 - 4 agg .) Defeat to PSG. PSG have dumped Liverpool out of the Champions League.
B8
Lead market: Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑12.5k leads the desk at 10.0% with $764 traded.
Lead stories
Canadian insurers fortify homes , urge Carney to put climate first as wildfire season kicks off
Canadian insurers fortify homes , urge Carney to put climate first as wildfire season kicks off. Japan posts lowest greenhouse gas emissions in decade. Sembcorp Industries Advances Sustainability Strategy with Renewables Expansion and Net - Zero Roadmap.
Sources: marketscreener.com, thepeninsulaqatar.com, greentechlead.com
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?
98.9%
$79K
Sources: wral.com, winnipegfreepress.com, seattletimes.com
Senate Republicans block latest bid to rein in Trump Iran war powers
Senate Republicans block latest bid to rein in Trump Iran war powers. Senate again blocks bid to limit Trump Iran war powers | Honolulu Star - Advertiser. Senate Conservatives Fund Endorses Rep . Mike Collins in Georgia Senate Race.
Sources: ksl.com, staradvertiser.com, breitbart.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Colombia Chamber of Representatives Election: 3rd Place - Historic Pact for Colombia (PH) at 1.7% with $2M traded.
Top volume remains in Colombia Chamber of Representatives Election: 3rd Place - Historic Pact for Colombia (PH).
Lead event
Colombia Chamber of Representatives Election: 3rd Place - Historic Pact for Colombia (PH)
Trading at 1.7% with $2M in volume.
Event leaders
Colombia Chamber of Representatives Election: 3rd Place
Top volume: Historic Pact for Colombia (PH) | 1.7% | $2M
Top odds: Partido Liberal Colombiano (PLC) | 96.4%
Peru Presidential Election Winner
Top volume: Roberto Sánchez Palomino | 20.5% | $1M
Top odds: Keiko Fujimori | 58.0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?) | 1.6% | $705K
Next Prime Minister of Hungary
Top volume & odds: Péter Magyar | 98.9% | $604K
6.2%
0.0pp
$10M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $554M+1%
Presidential election
Event volume $525M+1%
Comedy Shows Play Dumb On Trump Hormuz Blockade Announcement. Australia deeply invested in ensuring Strait of Hormuz remains open : Defense chief. US blockade on maritime traffic of Iranian ports takes effect.
Sources: newsbusters.org, aa.com.tr, albawaba.com
Kevin Warsh , Trump Pick for Fed Chair Reveals Over $100M in Assets : See Details
Kevin Warsh , Trump Pick for Fed Chair Reveals Over $100M in Assets : See Details. Trump Fed Pick Is Knee Deep in Tech and Crypto Investments. Trump pick for new Fed Chair to have confirmation hearing next week.
Sources: newsweek.com, gizmodo.com, wwmt.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Fed decision in April? - No change at 98.8% with $910K traded.
Top volume remains in Fed decision in April? - No change.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: No change | 98.8% | $910K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?) | 24.0% | $667K
Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Top volume & odds: Kevin Warsh | 95.0% | $429K
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in April 2026?
Top volume: ↑ $160 | 2.3% | $176K
Top odds: ↓ $85 | 74.0%
Popular events
Sources: 9to5mac.com, finance.yahoo.com, globalnews.ca
Anthropic IPO lifts outlook for SK Telecom stake
Anthropic IPO lifts outlook for SK Telecom stake. Anthropic IPO lifts outlook for SK Telecom stake. Blazing hot IPOs , an AI agent craze , and a new word for token : Here what happening in the world of Chinese AI.
Sources: upi.com, upi.com, finance.yahoo.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by AI bubble burst by...? - December 31, 2026 at 16.2% with $70K traded.
Top volume remains in AI bubble burst by...? - December 31, 2026.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: December 31, 2026 | 16.2% | $70K
Which company has the best AI model end of April?
Top volume: OpenAI | 5.5% | $13K
Top odds: Anthropic | 92.0%
What will SpaceX's public ticker be?
Top volume: $SPACE | 1.2% | $11K
Top odds: Other (incl $SPCX) | 60.4%
Popular events
Sources: qxmagazine.com
LeBron James , Luka Doncic & Austin Reaves Among Most - Viewed Players On NBA Socials
LeBron James , Luka Doncic & Austin Reaves Among Most - Viewed Players On NBA Socials. Shams Charania slams Bucks for questioning his credibility. The Best and Worst Case Scenario for Every NBA Team in the Postseason.
Sources: lakersnation.com, awfulannouncing.com, si.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes at 3.9% with $239K traded.
Top volume remains in Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes.
Event leaders
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 3.9% | $239K
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 18.0% | $118K
Top volume & odds: Kon Knueppel | 50.9% | $47K
Popular events
Eurovision Winner 2026 - Malta
Vol $130K
Vol $129K
Sources: bravenewcoin.com, finance.yahoo.com, bitcoinmagazine.com
The Perp Dex That Processed $360 Billion Just Went Live on Crypto Most Experimental Blockchain
The Perp Dex That Processed $360 Billion Just Went Live on Crypto Most Experimental Blockchain.
Sources: benzinga.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by Kraken IPO by ___ ? - December 31, 2026 at 69.0% with $47K traded.
Top volume remains in Kraken IPO by ___ ? - December 31, 2026.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: December 31, 2026 | 69.0% | $47K
MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch?
Top volume: >$3B | 4.4% | $26K
Top odds: >$600M | 63.0%
Top volume & odds: June 30, 2026 | 46.0% | $19K
Popular events
Toto Wolff opens up on Mercedes gamble that critics said would burn Kimi Antonelli
Toto Wolff opens up on Mercedes gamble that critics said would burn Kimi Antonelli. Marathi mandatory for auto , taxi drivers from May 1 ; unions call it a political diktat. Exactly what to say when challenging a council parking ticket.
Sources: motorsport.com, hindustantimes.com, mirror.co.uk
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by UEFA Champions League Winner - Atletico Madrid at 10.4% with $663K traded.
Top volume remains in UEFA Champions League Winner - Atletico Madrid.
Event leaders
Top volume: Atletico Madrid | 10.4% | $663K
Top odds: Bayern Munich | 30.0%
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF
Top volume: Real Madrid CF | 19.0% | $59K
Top odds: FC Bayern München | 65.0%
Popular events
Vol $59K
Japan net greenhouse gas emissions fall to record low. Super Typhoon Sinlaku leaves 2 , 000 tourists stranded with 173mph wind | World | News. Manila Bulletin - Emperador raises 300 million euros from its first sustainability - linked loan.
Sources: bssnews.net, express.co.uk, mb.com.ph
Kenya Launches Sh520mn UN - Backed Nairobi Green Cities Project to Boost Climate - Resilient Urban Growth. Small Modular Reactors : Climate Solution or Costly Distraction ?. Greenhouse gas emissions in Japan fell to record low in fiscal 2024.
Sources: allafrica.com, geeky-gadgets.com, japantimes.co.jp
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑12.5k at 10.0% with $764 traded.
Top volume remains in Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑12.5k.
Event leaders
Popular events
+$6,545
+$4,615
+$3,543
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
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