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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" Event volume totals $15M across outcomes. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?)" at 8.9% and $0 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?" Highest implied odds are for "Kevin Warsh" at 96.0%, with top volume on "Judy Shelton" at 1.8% and $68K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Volume leaders
B1
Lead market: Presidential Election Winner 2028 - Gavin Newsom leads the desk at 16.4% with $109K traded.
Lead stories
Enter for a chance to win the 2026 Tamron Hall Mother Day Getaway
Enter for a chance to win the 2026 Tamron Hall Mother Day Getaway. Rousing success | CARTOON | Michael Ramirez. Who do you see as the winner between Vjosa Osmani and Albin Kurti ? Former Prime Minister Mustafa speaks.
Sources: abc11.com, reviewjournal.com, gazetaexpress.com
Trump could keep an acting attorney general for months
Trump could keep an acting attorney general for months. Democrats fighting for Iowa Senate seat tussle over Chuck Schumer and super PACs. Morning Docket : 04 . 09 . 26 - Above the Law.
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair? - Judy Shelton leads the desk at 1.8% with $68K traded.
Lead stories
NY Fed Chief John Williams Claims Powell Can Remain Chair After Term Expires
NY Fed Chief John Williams Claims Powell Can Remain Chair After Term Expires. Dunelm shoppers snapping up glamorous and stylish armchair in sale. B & M £100 folding egg chair beats Dunelm price for spring garden furniture.
Sources: breitbart.com, nottinghampost.com, dailyrecord.co.uk
How this crude oil price plunge compares to the largest on record
How this crude oil price plunge compares to the largest on record. War in Iran : Oil markets changed forever by Donald Trump. War in Iran : Oil markets changed forever by Donald Trump.
B4
Lead market: SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ? - >$3T leads the desk at 18.0% with $42K traded.
Lead stories
OpenAI will reserve portion of IPO shares for retail investors , CFO tells CNBC
OpenAI will reserve portion of IPO shares for retail investors , CFO tells CNBC. OpenAI to reserve portion of IPO shares for retail investors. Buy This AI Stock to Own SpaceX Pre - IPO and Hold It Through the Robotaxi Boom.
Sources: economictimes.indiatimes.com, dealstreetasia.com, fool.com
B5
Lead market: NBA MVP - Nikola Jokic leads the desk at 2.1% with $38K traded.
Lead stories
Victor Wembanyama gets encouraging update amid tight MVP race
Victor Wembanyama gets encouraging update amid tight MVP race. Spur Victor Wembanyama Further Exposes Folly Of NBA 65 - Game Awards Rule. Nike Kobe 4 Protro Draft Day Collection Gets Release Date.
Sources: yardbarker.com, forbes.com, blackenterprise.com
MAGA darling roasts Trump spiritual advisor after heretical speech
MAGA darling roasts Trump spiritual advisor after heretical speech. Ghana : Christians Urged to Prepare for 2nd Coming of Jesus Christ. Letters : Increase legislator pay | Dont compare Trump to Jesus | ICE is out of control – Orlando Sentinel.
B6
Lead market: Ethereum all time high by ___? - June 30, 2026 leads the desk at 2.0% with $3K traded.
Lead stories
Ethereum ( ETH ) Price Prediction : Supply Shock Meets Resistance Is ETH Preparing for a $2 , 500 Push ?. Bitcoin and ethereum price today , Thursday , April 9 , 2026 : Crypto rally slows as ceasefire wavers. BNB Price Prediction Gains Strength as Fermi Hard Fork Cuts Block.
Sources: bravenewcoin.com, finance.yahoo.com, openpr.com
B7
Lead market: Spurs leads the desk at 95.0% with $2M traded.
Lead stories
Portland Trail Blazers vs San Antonio Spurs LIVE Score Updates in NBA Game | 04 / 08 / 2026
Portland Trail Blazers vs San Antonio Spurs LIVE Score Updates in NBA Game | 04 / 08 / 2026. Trail Blazers vs . Spurs Time , TV & Stream – April 8 | Rip City Radio 620 Portland. Trail Blazers vs . Spurs Time , TV & Stream – April 8.
Sources: vavel.com, ripcityradio.iheart.com, khey1380.iheart.com
Thunder vs Clippers : Oklahoma City can clinch No . 1 seed
Thunder vs Clippers : Oklahoma City can clinch No . 1 seed. Thunder play the Clippers , seek 7th straight victory. Cooper Flagg scores 25 in Mav loss to Clippers.
B8
Lead market: Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑10k leads the desk at 15.0% with $145 traded.
Lead stories
Possible Super El Niño could reshape the hurricane season , Florida forecasters say
Possible Super El Niño could reshape the hurricane season , Florida forecasters say. France climate targets off track as emissions cuts slow again. Kathy Hochul Has One Last Chance to Do the Right Thing on Climate.
Sources: wtsp.com, thelocal.fr, newrepublic.com
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?
98.6%
$1
Fed decision in April? - No change
98.4%
$37K
Sources: rollcall.com, nbcnews.com, abovethelaw.com
Possible 2028 Democratic presidential hopefuls head to NYC for National Action Network convention
Possible 2028 Democratic presidential hopefuls head to NYC for National Action Network convention. Cameroon lawmakers revive vice presidency , handing aging president sweeping control over the post – Winnipeg Free Press. Rev . Al Sharpton boosts Kamala Harris for 2028 White House run.
Sources: wwaytv3.com, winnipegfreepress.com, nydailynews.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Presidential Election Winner 2028 - Gavin Newsom at 16.4% with $109K traded.
Top volume remains in Presidential Election Winner 2028 - Gavin Newsom.
Event leaders
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Top volume: Elon Musk | 1.2% | $104K
Top odds: J.D. Vance | 39.3%
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Top volume: Andy Beshear | 2.0% | $89K
Top odds: Gavin Newsom | 27.1%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?
Top volume: April 30 | 41.0% | $65K
Top odds: June 30 | 79.0%
Popular events
6.1%
-0.4pp
$8M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $535M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $506M0%
Sources: washingtonexaminer.com, smh.com.au, theage.com.au
Oil rises as investors remain wary US - Iran ceasefire will open supply flow - Moneycontrol . com
Oil rises as investors remain wary US - Iran ceasefire will open supply flow - Moneycontrol . com. Ukraine welcomes agreement to unblock Strait of Hormuz and ceasefire – FM Sybiha. Iran offers alternate Hormuz routes , cites sea mine risk after ceasefire.
Sources: moneycontrol.com, en.interfax.com.ua, moneycontrol.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair? - Judy Shelton at 1.8% with $68K traded.
Top volume remains in Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair? - Judy Shelton.
Event leaders
Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Top volume: Judy Shelton | 1.8% | $68K
Top odds: Kevin Warsh | 96.0%
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in April 2026?
Top volume: ↑ $120 | 32.0% | $60K
Top odds: ↓ $90 | 68.0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?) | 26.0% | $46K
Top volume & odds: No change | 98.4% | $37K
2nd largest company end of April?
Top volume: 2nd largest company end of April? | 1.9% | $35K
Top odds: Alphabet | 52.0%
XAI Reorganizes Its Engineering Team Ahead of SpaceX IPO. Intel Partners with Elon Musk Terafab Project to Revolutionize AI and Robotics , ETTelecom. Intel joins Elon Musk Terafab AI chip project to power humanoid , data centre goals.
Anthropic adds compute power with Google , Broadcom deals
Anthropic adds compute power with Google , Broadcom deals. Anthropic touts AI cybersecurity project with Big Tech partners. Meta Platforms Rises on Release of New AI Model.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, bworldonline.com, marketscreener.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ? - >$3T at 18.0% with $42K traded.
Top volume remains in SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ? - >$3T.
Event leaders
Which company has the best AI model end of April?
Top volume: Google | 3.1% | $6K
Top odds: Anthropic | 91.0%
What will SpaceX's public ticker be?
Top volume: $SPACE | 1.4% | $4K
Top odds: Other (incl $SPCX) | 74.5%
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12
Top volume: April 30 | 5.0% | $600
Top odds: Successful splash down? | 7.7%
Sources: rawstory.com, allafrica.com, orlandosentinel.com
Enter for a chance to win the 2026 Tamron Hall Mother Day Getaway
Enter for a chance to win the 2026 Tamron Hall Mother Day Getaway. Rousing success | CARTOON | Michael Ramirez. Who do you see as the winner between Vjosa Osmani and Albin Kurti ? Former Prime Minister Mustafa speaks.
Sources: abc11.com, reviewjournal.com, gazetaexpress.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by NBA MVP - Nikola Jokic at 2.1% with $38K traded.
Top volume remains in NBA MVP - Nikola Jokic.
Event leaders
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 3.9% | $15K
Top volume & odds: Finland | 39.5% | $10K
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Top volume: Michael | 1.2% | $6K
Top odds: Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 48.0%
Popular events
Bitcoin and ethereum price today , Wednesday , April 8 , 2026 : Prices rise after U . S .- Iran ceasefire announcement. Cryptocurrencies : Bitcoin Reaches 3 - Week High. Bitcoin news : Morgan Stanley spot BTC ETF may begin trading Wednesday.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, etftrends.com, coindesk.com
FinancialContent - Federated Hermes U . S . Strategic Dividend ETF ( NYSE : FDV ) Stock Quote
FinancialContent - Federated Hermes U . S . Strategic Dividend ETF ( NYSE : FDV ) Stock Quote. 2 Low - Volatility ETFs Built for the Choppy Market We Are Seeing in April 2026. 2 Low - Volatility ETFs Built for the Choppy Market We Are Seeing in April 2026.
Sources: markets.financialcontent.com, finance.yahoo.com, fool.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by Ethereum all time high by ___? - June 30, 2026 at 2.0% with $3K traded.
Top volume remains in Ethereum all time high by ___? - June 30, 2026.
Event leaders
Ethereum all time high by ___?
Top volume: June 30, 2026 | 2.0% | $3K
Top odds: December 31, 2026 | 15.0%
Top volume: June 30, 2026 | 2.8% | $1K
Top odds: December 31, 2026 | 13.0%
Sources: news9.com, morningsun.net, pressherald.com
Kane on Target as Bayern Gain Slim Edge at Real Madrid – THISDAYLIVE
Kane on Target as Bayern Gain Slim Edge at Real Madrid – THISDAYLIVE. How to watch PSG vs Liverpool : Free Streams & TV Info. Arsenal do it their way to establish blueprint for success in run - in.
Sources: thisdaylive.com, fourfourtwo.com, aol.co.uk
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Spurs | 95.0% | $2M
Top volume & odds: Thunder | 97.4% | $1M
Augusta National Invitational - Winner
Top volume: Chris Gotterup | 1.3% | $56K
Top odds: Scottie Scheffler | 14.0%
Top volume & odds: George Russell | 44.0% | $3K
Popular events
Crystal clear : Energy Minister Chris Bowen mounts fierce defence of key 2030 climate target at combative press confe.... China unveils large model for carbon emission accounting. China unveils large model for carbon emission accounting.
Sources: skynews.com.au, asiabulletin.com, bignewsnetwork.com
A Super El Niño is coming . Here how a hotter ocean could change the weather near you
A Super El Niño is coming . Here how a hotter ocean could change the weather near you. On India updated climate pledges. Zeldin tells climate skeptics to celebrate vindication.
Sources: wgal.com, thehindu.com, orlandosentinel.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑10k at 15.0% with $145 traded.
Top volume remains in Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑10k.
Event leaders
Popular events
+$6,545
+$1,997
+$1,900
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
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