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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" Event volume totals $15M across outcomes. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?)" at 8.3% and $0 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Fed decision in April?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "No change" at 98.4% and $721K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? - Yes
$0
Highest implied
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑2k
98.6%
Top priced
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑2k
98.6%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? - Yes leads the desk at 3.9% with $876K traded.
Lead stories
Downed planes raise new perils for Trump as Tehran hunts for missing US pilot
Downed planes raise new perils for Trump as Tehran hunts for missing US pilot. ICE arrests niece , grandniece of slain notorious Iranian Gen . Soleimani in Los Angeles. China Snaps Up Iran Oil , India Misses.
Sources: dunyanews.tv, nypost.com, rediff.com
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $980M+1%
B3
Lead market: Fed decision in April? - No change leads the desk at 98.4% with $721K traded.
Lead stories
Economics Paper Pdf : CBSE Class 12 Economics exam analysis 2026 : Paper moderate , Macro Economics tricky for some s.... The Economics Department Needs To Raise Its Standards | Opinion. CBSE Class 12th Economics Answer Key 2026 : Download Question Paper Solution PDF.
Sources: timesofindia.indiatimes.com, thecrimson.com, jagranjosh.com
B4
Lead market: Claude 5 released by…? - April 30, 2026 leads the desk at 13.0% with $22K traded.
Lead stories
Anthropic Claude gains computer control as AI starts running your screen
Anthropic Claude gains computer control as AI starts running your screen. Claude down : Users unable to use Anthropic AI chatbot , company yet to respond. GitHub - drona23 / claude - token - efficient : Universal CLAUDE . md - cut Claude output tokens by 63 %. Drop - in .....
Sources: businesstoday.in, digit.in, github.com
B5
Lead market: Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes leads the desk at 3.9% with $262K traded.
Lead stories
Church First Presidency shares Easter message
Church First Presidency shares Easter message. Christ Is King . Stop Using His Name in Vain .. GMG Productions , David Ian For Crossroads Live and Work Light Productions Presents The Regent Park Open Air Theatre....
Sources: ksl.com, townhall.com, portal.sina.com.hk
B6
Lead market: Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 7.7% with $23K traded.
Lead stories
You Have Until 2029 Urgent Elon Musk Bitcoin Warning Suddenly Triggers Price Crash Fears
You Have Until 2029 Urgent Elon Musk Bitcoin Warning Suddenly Triggers Price Crash Fears. Jiri Prochazka explains why potentially following Alex Pereira to heavyweight is a really good idea. You Have Until 2029 Urgent Musk Bitcoin Warning Spurs Coinbase CEO Flip As Price Crash Fears Swirl.
Sources: forbes.com, bjpenn.com, forbes.com
B7
Lead market: Arizona Wildcats leads the desk at 51.0% with $653K traded.
Lead stories
Men Final Four staff predictions : Why Arizona is ( still ) our favorite to win
Men Final Four staff predictions : Why Arizona is ( still ) our favorite to win. Freshman Koa Peat elevates Arizona past Purdue to end 25 - year Final Four drought. Top - seeded Arizona shakes off slow start , dominates No . 2 Purdue to advance to Final Four.
Sources: nytimes.com, nytimes.com, eastbaytimes.com
B8
Lead market: Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑5k leads the desk at 49.0% with $1K traded.
Lead stories
EU sees climate co - op progress with Turkmenistan , urges stronger methane measures ( Exclusive )
EU sees climate co - op progress with Turkmenistan , urges stronger methane measures ( Exclusive ). Sundaram Multi Pap Ltd takes Positive Step Towards Sustainability with Installation of Solar Roof Panels. Carbon Accounting Software Market : Driving Sustainability Through Technology.
Sources: trend.az, equitybulls.com, briefingwire.com
The cost of climate change is hitting home this Easter . Your lamb roast dinner is proof
The cost of climate change is hitting home this Easter . Your lamb roast dinner is proof. NBC & CBS Hype Climate Hysteria , Scold Denier Like Trump. Prof . Yaw Agyeman Boafo Highlights Climate Risks and Urban Resilience on Research Agenda Show , Says Solutions Lie w....
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?
98.4%
$721K
97.5%
$63K
Redemption is here : Dino Melaye explains how ADC will defeat Tinubu in 2027. DOJ , rejecting decades - old law , says Trump can keep his presidential records. 2027 : Kwankwaso meets Atiku ahead of planned move to join ADC - Latest News In Nigeria , Nigeria News Today , Your O....
Sources: premiumtimesng.com, abcnews.com, nigerianeye.com
Hobbs , Biggs spar as she wont say if shell debate him
Hobbs , Biggs spar as she wont say if shell debate him. Kerala Assembly elections 2026 : Tamil - speaking electorate holds key to Devikulam constituency. Kamala Harris joins leftist war against president authority to nominate justices * WorldNetDaily * by Bob Unruh.
Sources: tucson.com, thehindu.com, wnd.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? - Yes at 3.9% with $876K traded.
Top volume remains in Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? - Yes.
Event leaders
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?) | 3.9% | $876K
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Top volume: Jon Stewart | 2.3% | $625K
Top odds: Gavin Newsom | 24.3%
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Top volume: Ron DeSantis | 2.7% | $573K
Top odds: J.D. Vance | 36.9%
Next Prime Minister of Hungary
Top volume: Viktor Orbán | 35.0% | $490K
Top odds: Péter Magyar | 66.0%
Popular events
7.7%
+2.3pp
$7M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $518M+1%
Presidential election
Event volume $489M0%
Delve row explained : What led to its split from Y Combinator.
Sources: economictimes.indiatimes.com
Revisiting Energy Market Impacts From the Iran War
Revisiting Energy Market Impacts From the Iran War. Robin Brooks Warns Iran Oil Strategy Critical to Global Energy Stability. US Rig Count Rises For First Time in Three Weeks.
Sources: etftrends.com, benzinga.com, finance.yahoo.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Fed decision in April? - No change at 98.4% with $721K traded.
Top volume remains in Fed decision in April? - No change.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: No change | 98.4% | $721K
Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Top volume: Judy Shelton | 1.3% | $419K
Top odds: Kevin Warsh | 96.5%
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in April 2026?
Top volume: ↑ $200 | 2.8% | $372K
Top odds: ↑ $120 | 76.0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?) | 9.0% | $191K
Top volume & odds: Largest Company end of April? | 97.5% | $63K
Popular events
OpenAI president Greg Brockman says taste is a new core AI skill. Kara Swisher Talks Tech Regulation & AI at Exchange. Is Micron the New Nvidia ? | The Motley Fool.
Sources: afr.com, etftrends.com, fool.com
Elon Musk sets this Grok condition condition for all Wall Street banks , law firms and auditors if they want to advis.... Elon Musk xAI has lost all 8 of its original co - founders since January - Ross Nordeen is the last to go. Fortune Tech : Microsoft revamps Copilot with Anthropic ; Sora post - mortem ; Mistral datacenter.
Sources: timesofindia.indiatimes.com, livemint.com, fortune.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Claude 5 released by…? - April 30, 2026 at 13.0% with $22K traded.
Top volume remains in Claude 5 released by…? - April 30, 2026.
Event leaders
Which company has the best AI model end of April?
Top volume: OpenAI | 2.1% | $11K
Top odds: Anthropic | 93.0%
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?) | 2.1% | $6K
Popular events
Luka Doncic agent challenging NBA 65 games rule for awards. Ronda Rousey says the UFC used to be anti - establishment , and now it become the establishment. Using the Offseason to Produce a Great Season.
Sources: lakersnation.com, mmafighting.com, baltimoreravens.com
Rakasa Box Office Success : Niharika Konidela Horror - Comedy Earns Rs 2 . 60 Crore on Opening Day |
Rakasa Box Office Success : Niharika Konidela Horror - Comedy Earns Rs 2 . 60 Crore on Opening Day |. Coal City filmfest 2026 inducts NFC , NFVCB boss , 3 others into Hall of Fame. Dhurandhar 2 : Dhurandhar The Revenge : Manav Gohil responds to propaganda allegations ; says , Art and politics shou....
Sources: timesofindia.indiatimes.com, vanguardngr.com, timesofindia.indiatimes.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes at 3.9% with $262K traded.
Top volume remains in Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes.
Event leaders
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 3.9% | $262K
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 17.0% | $212K
GTA VI released before June 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (GTA VI released before June 2026?) | 1.4% | $50K
Popular events
The Perp Dex That Processed $360 Billion Just Went Live on Crypto Most Experimental Blockchain.
Sources: benzinga.com
I Asked ChatGPT To Explain Ethereum to Me Like Im 12
I Asked ChatGPT To Explain Ethereum to Me Like Im 12. New Crypto Pepeto Announces $8 . 7M Raised While Ethereum Price Prediction Just Got A New Boost. Global X Launches Ethereum Covered Call ETF Targeting Weekly Income.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, manilatimes.net, finance.yahoo.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? - Yes at 7.7% with $23K traded.
Top volume remains in Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?) | 7.7% | $23K
MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch?
Top volume: >$1B | 41.0% | $20K
Top odds: >$600M | 75.0%
Top volume: June 30, 2026 | 3.4% | $10K
Top odds: December 31, 2026 | 13.0%
Popular events
Bayern stage late comeback at Freiburg before Real Madrid showdown. Bayern Youngsters Deliver Rousing Comeback Win to Stay on Course for Bundesliga Title. Arne Slot : Liverpool boss has two weeks to save job as Carragher reveals huge transfer concern.
Sources: vanguardngr.com, english.aawsat.com, teamtalk.com
Max Verstappen calls those enjoying F1 new racing style not real fans
Max Verstappen calls those enjoying F1 new racing style not real fans. Takeaways for F1 meetings on rule changes after a big crash and Verstappen hint at retiring – The Press Democrat. Katsuta seizes Safari Rally lead as drama rocks Day Three.
Sources: nytimes.com, pressdemocrat.com, the-star.co.ke
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by Arizona Wildcats at 51.0% with $653K traded.
Top volume remains in Arizona Wildcats.
Event leaders
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines
Top volume & odds: Arizona Wildcats | 51.0% | $653K
Top volume & odds: Mercedes | 76.0% | $3K
Popular events
Vol $653K
Sources: euronews.com, newsbusters.org, ug.edu.gh
Impact Of El Nino - Global Weather Pattern
Impact Of El Nino - Global Weather Pattern. Why weather prediction got brilliant – but not climate predictions.
Sources: skymetweather.com, wattsupwiththat.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑5k at 49.0% with $1K traded.
Top volume remains in Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑5k.
Event leaders
Popular events
+$3,108
+$2,814
+$1,630
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
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