Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" Event volume totals $15M across outcomes. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?)" at 8.3% and $0 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?" Highest implied odds are for "Kevin Warsh" at 97.0%, with top volume on "Judy Shelton" at 1.5% and $717K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? - Yes
$0
Highest implied
98.8%
Top priced
98.8%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: US x Iran ceasefire by...? - April 30 leads the desk at 19.0% with $1M traded.
Lead stories
News brief in progress
Editors are compiling the latest reports on US x Iran ceasefire by....
Democratic attorneys general sue Trump over order to restrict mail voting
Democratic attorneys general sue Trump over order to restrict mail voting. Myanmar junta chief Min Aung Hlaing wins parliamentary vote to become president. DoJ Claims Presidential Records Act Is Unconstitutional.
Sources: theguardian.com, scmp.com, crooksandliars.com
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $975M
B3
Lead market: Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair? - Judy Shelton leads the desk at 1.5% with $717K traded.
Lead stories
FACT CHECK : Marcoleta not back as Senate blue ribbon chair
FACT CHECK : Marcoleta not back as Senate blue ribbon chair. Watch Live : Fed Chair Powell Speaks At Harvard University. Hernando Democratic Party chairman arrested , Republican Party of Florida calling for immediate removal.
Sources: rappler.com, zerohedge.com, yahoo.com
Judge upholds block on subpoenas to Fed Jerome Powell
Judge upholds block on subpoenas to Fed Jerome Powell. Federal judge upholds ruling shielding Fed chair Jerome Powell from subpoenas. US judge upholds block on subpoenas to Fed Powell , teeing up likely appeal.
B4
Lead market: Which company has the best AI model end of April? - DeepSeek leads the desk at 1.1% with $32K traded.
Lead stories
SpaceX - xAI Merger at $1 . 25 Trillion Just Set the Stage for a Landmark IPO . Here What It Means for Investors .. OpenAI Fidji Simo Is Taking Medical Leave Amid an Executive Shake - Up. SpaceX - xAI Merger at $1 . 25 Trillion Just Set the Stage for a Landmark IPO . Here What It Means for Investors ..
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, wired.com, fool.com
B5
Lead market: Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes leads the desk at 3.9% with $330K traded.
Lead stories
Church First Presidency shares Easter message
Church First Presidency shares Easter message. Christ Is King . Stop Using His Name in Vain .. GMG Productions , David Ian For Crossroads Live and Work Light Productions Presents The Regent Park Open Air Theatre....
Sources: ksl.com, townhall.com, portal.sina.com.hk
B6
Lead market: Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 7.8% with $37K traded.
Lead stories
Is Bitcoin Safe From Quantum Computers ? Satoshi Has This To Say
Is Bitcoin Safe From Quantum Computers ? Satoshi Has This To Say. Bitcoin Ends 5 - Month Losing Streak Real Reversal Or Just April Fool Hype ?. You Have Until 2029 Urgent Elon Musk Bitcoin Warning Suddenly Triggers Price Crash Fears.
Sources: newsbtc.com, newsbtc.com, forbes.com
Goldman Sachs Just Quietly Called The Bitcoin Price Bottom But There A Nasty Catch
Goldman Sachs Just Quietly Called The Bitcoin Price Bottom But There A Nasty Catch. Bitcoin Recovery Time Extends If Selloff Deepens Below $60K. Bitcoin price prediction 2030 : 5 - year bitcoin forecast.
B7
Lead market: UEFA Champions League Winner - Atletico Madrid leads the desk at 3.6% with $682K traded.
Lead stories
More than the Score - From Salah to LeBron : How do fans cope when their favourites leave ?
More than the Score - From Salah to LeBron : How do fans cope when their favourites leave ?. Italy third apocalypse : Why a team who won four World Cups now cant reach one. Sam Kerr and Ellie Carpenter return to spark Chelsea Women Super League win over Aston Villa.
Sources: bbc.co.uk, nytimes.com, abc.net.au
Timberwolves vs . Pistons Predictions , Odds & Stats – March 28
Timberwolves vs . Pistons Predictions , Odds & Stats – March 28. Timberwolves vs . Pistons Predictions , Odds & Stats – March 28. Timberwolves vs . Pistons Predictions , Odds & Stats – March 28.
B8
Lead market: Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑5k leads the desk at 49.0% with $1K traded.
Lead stories
Discover Effective Solutions Towards Climate Change Now
Discover Effective Solutions Towards Climate Change Now. Climate Change Solutions : Practical Actions We Can Take. Big tech was embracing clean energy and turning a corner on climate change . Then AI data centers arrived.
Sources: emagazine.com, emagazine.com, fortune.com
NOAA more informative hurricane cone a permanent part of the agency warnings
NOAA more informative hurricane cone a permanent part of the agency warnings. Weather : The Prowers Journal. TotalEnergies , Masdar Form $2 . 2B Renewables JV in Asia.
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
98.6%
$6
Fed decision in April? - No change
98.2%
$446K
Bondi Reaction To Being Fired By Trump , Final Straw Revealed : Report. Bondi Reaction To Being Fired By Trump , Final Straw Revealed : Report. Bondi Reaction To Being Fired By Trump , Final Straw Revealed : Report.
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by US x Iran ceasefire by...? - April 30 at 19.0% with $1M traded.
Top volume remains in US x Iran ceasefire by...? - April 30.
Event leaders
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Top volume: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 8.3% | $771K
Top odds: Gavin Newsom | 24.6%
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Top volume: Elon Musk | 1.2% | $638K
Top odds: J.D. Vance | 36.8%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?) | 3.5% | $556K
Popular events
5.4%
—
$7M
—
Republican nominee
Event volume $514M
Presidential election
Event volume $487M
Sources: cnbc.com, moneycontrol.com, marketscreener.com
What did the March jobs report show ?
What did the March jobs report show ?. US registers strong job growth in March in boost to Trump. US jobless aid filings fall to 202 , 000 as layoffs remain low despite uncertainty of Iran war.
Sources: alltoc.com, digitaljournal.com, timesfreepress.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair? - Judy Shelton at 1.5% with $717K traded.
Top volume remains in Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair? - Judy Shelton.
Event leaders
Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Top volume: Judy Shelton | 1.5% | $717K
Top odds: Kevin Warsh | 97.0%
Top volume & odds: No change | 98.2% | $446K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?) | 11.0% | $161K
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in April 2026?
Top volume: ↑ $200 | 2.7% | $157K
Top odds: ↑ $120 | 79.0%
What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of June?
Top volume: ↑ $5,500 | 25.9% | $60K
Top odds: ↓ $4,200 | 41.0%
Popular events
Anthropic Claude gains computer control as AI starts running your screen. Claude down : Users unable to use Anthropic AI chatbot , company yet to respond. Claude Code and Cowork can now use your computer.
Sources: businesstoday.in, digit.in, engadget.com
Elon Musk xAI has lost all 8 of its original co - founders since January - Ross Nordeen is the last to go. Fortune Tech : Microsoft revamps Copilot with Anthropic ; Sora post - mortem ; Mistral datacenter. All 11 xAI co - founders have now left Elon Musk AI company.
Sources: livemint.com, fortune.com, thenextweb.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Which company has the best AI model end of April? - DeepSeek at 1.1% with $32K traded.
Top volume remains in Which company has the best AI model end of April? - DeepSeek.
Lead event
Which company has the best AI model end of April? - DeepSeek
Trading at 1.1% with $32K in volume.
Event leaders
Which company has the best AI model end of April?
Top volume: DeepSeek | 1.1% | $32K
Top odds: Anthropic | 94.0%
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?) | 1.7% | $11K
Popular events
Art of Glam Awards : Red Carpet & Honorees. Dhurandhar merchandise drops on AJIO ahead of sequel release ; collection features Ranveer Singh , Sara Arjun – signe.... Lionsgate Power Ballad among over 50 films screening at 2026 Desertscape International Film Festival | News.
Sources: eurweb.com, bollywoodhungama.com, stgeorgeutah.com
Luka Doncic injury could mean he out of the NBA award race . How does that process work ?
Luka Doncic injury could mean he out of the NBA award race . How does that process work ?. Where does James Harden rank among all - time NBA shooting guards ?. Mac McClung becomes G League first two - time MVP.
Sources: durangoherald.com, fansided.com, bignewsnetwork.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes at 3.9% with $330K traded.
Top volume remains in Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes.
Event leaders
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 3.9% | $330K
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 17.0% | $302K
Top volume & odds: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 91.0% | $146K
Top volume & odds: Finland | 38.4% | $136K
Popular events
Sources: forbes.com, cointelegraph.com, yahoo.com
Bitcoin rangebound as altcoins rally while derivatives signal downside risk : Crypto Markets Today
Bitcoin rangebound as altcoins rally while derivatives signal downside risk : Crypto Markets Today. Crypto News On Pepeto Project advancement And BNB Price Prediction Targets That Every BNB Holders Need to Know. MEXC Announces USD1 Launchpool Event with 1 , 500 , 000 WLFI Prize Pool.
Sources: coindesk.com, manilatimes.net, manilatimes.net
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? - Yes at 7.8% with $37K traded.
Top volume remains in Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?) | 7.8% | $37K
MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch?
Top volume: >$2B | 10.0% | $36K
Top odds: >$600M | 69.0%
Top volume: June 30, 2026 | 3.1% | $19K
Top odds: December 31, 2026 | 14.0%
Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Top volume: $200M | 68.0% | $17K
Top odds: $50M | 96.0%
Popular events
Griezmann given go - ahead to talk with Orlando City
Griezmann given go - ahead to talk with Orlando City. Griezmann given go - ahead to talk with Orlando City. Griezmann given go - ahead to talk with Orlando City.
Sources: youralaskalink.com, thedigitalcourier.com, kpcnews.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by UEFA Champions League Winner - Atletico Madrid at 3.6% with $682K traded.
Top volume remains in UEFA Champions League Winner - Atletico Madrid.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: 76ers | 97.2% | $579K
Top volume & odds: Hawks | 96.5% | $118K
Top volume & odds: Magic | 85.0% | $94K
Top volume & odds: Islanders | 2.0% | $71K
Popular events
Sources: wgcu.org, theprowersjournal.com, rigzone.com
Ottawa , Alberta strike agreement on oil and gas methane reductions - WestCentralOnline : West Central Saskatchewan l.... Vanuatu and Pacific urged to fast - track shift to renewable energy. Vermont defends novel climate law that targets fossil fuel firms.
Sources: westcentralonline.com, dailypost.vu, bostonglobe.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑5k at 49.0% with $1K traded.
Top volume remains in Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑5k.
Event leaders
Popular events
+$4,844
+$1,630
+$934
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
Leaderboard