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News Meets Markets
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Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?" Event volume totals $19M across outcomes, with $4M traded in the last 24 hours. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?)" at 16.4% and $4M 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Fed decision in March?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "No change" at 98.4% and $2M 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? - Yes
$4M
Highest implied
Ethereum above ___ on March 4? - 1,800
98.7%
Top priced
Ethereum above ___ on March 4? - 1,800
98.7%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? - Yes leads the desk at 16.4% with $4M traded.
Lead stories
Israel Air Force says extensive wave of strikes against Iran regime targets on
Israel Air Force says extensive wave of strikes against Iran regime targets on. IAF strikes dozens of Iranian regime headquarters. Israel vows to assassinate Iran new supreme leader - after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in air strike.
Sources: news18.com, israelnationalnews.com, lbc.co.uk
Iran Assembly Elects Mojtaba Khamenei as New Supreme Leader
Iran Assembly Elects Mojtaba Khamenei as New Supreme Leader. Khamenei wife dies from injuries sustained in U . S .- Israeli strikes – NaturalNews . com. Iran war LIVE as Ali Khamenei son Mojtaba named as new Supreme Leader - World News.
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner, Senate control 2026.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $761M
B3
Lead market: Fed decision in March? - No change leads the desk at 98.4% with $2M traded.
Lead stories
Kraken Secures Federal Reserve Master Account : WSJ
Kraken Secures Federal Reserve Master Account : WSJ. Fed Williams : Cooling Inflation Could Allow for Future Rate Cuts. Fed Schmid Says No Room for Complacency Given Above - Target Inflation.
Sources: cointelegraph.com, marketscreener.com, marketscreener.com
US Stock Market | Warsh path to rate cuts getting tougher even before his Fed entry
US Stock Market | Warsh path to rate cuts getting tougher even before his Fed entry. Meet the tots whose parents are feeding their kids sticks of raw butter all in the name of health. Dow Jones Top Markets Headlines at 3 PM ET : Stocks Slide as Oil Prices Jump | Fed ....
B4
Lead market: OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ? - $1.2T leads the desk at 41.0% with $163K traded.
Lead stories
After deal with Department of War , OpenAI now looking at contract with NATO : Report
After deal with Department of War , OpenAI now looking at contract with NATO : Report. SoftBank $30 billion OpenAI bet spurs S & P credit outlook cut.
Sources: livemint.com, thehindubusinessline.com
Many AI toys claim to use chatbots meant for adults and teens
Many AI toys claim to use chatbots meant for adults and teens.
Sources:
B5
Lead market: Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes leads the desk at 3.9% with $1M traded.
Lead stories
Kyle Idleman : There No Room for Comfortable Christianity
Kyle Idleman : There No Room for Comfortable Christianity. Redemptor Hominis : More Important than Ever. Jesus Dwells Within.
Sources: relevantmagazine.com, firstthings.com, philstar.com
Congratulations to Kirk Franklin , Tasha Cobbs Leonard and all Winners | 99 . 7 | 1230 WSOK
Congratulations to Kirk Franklin , Tasha Cobbs Leonard and all Winners | 99 . 7 | 1230 WSOK. Congratulations to Kirk Franklin , Tasha Cobbs Leonard and all Winners | Hallelujah 95 . 5. People magazine launches | March 4 , 1974.
B6
Lead market: What price will Bitcoin hit in March? - ↓ 65,000 leads the desk at 73.7% with $624K traded.
Lead stories
Current price of Bitcoin for March 3 , 2026
Current price of Bitcoin for March 3 , 2026. Expert Trader Says Bitcoin Surge To $220 , 000 Is Coming , But This Will Happen First. Elliot Wave Theory Says Bitcoin Price Is Headed To $40 , 000 , But The End Game Will Shock You.
Sources: fortune.com, newsbtc.com, newsbtc.com
Are Bitcoin Critics Holding Price Back From $750 , 000 ? Ray Dalio Warning Is Opportunity , Says Bitwise Exec. Bitcoin Year - End Odds of Reaching $150 , 000 Just Slipped to 10 % on Prediction Markets -- Here What That Really Me.... Eric Trump American Bitcoin Expands Hashrate , Deepens BTC Bet.
B7
Lead market: UEFA Champions League Winner - Tottenham leads the desk at 1.8% with $1M traded.
Lead stories
Why Viktor Gyokeres is a useful small - game player – and why that is important
Why Viktor Gyokeres is a useful small - game player – and why that is important. Vote for February Women Player of the Month !. Where S Cristiano Ronaldo ? Fans Worry As Conflict Escalates In Saudi Arabia.
Sources: nytimes.com, arsenal.com, i24news.tv
2026 LCK Cup wraps up , Gen . G reigns supreme
2026 LCK Cup wraps up , Gen . G reigns supreme.
Sources:
B8
Lead market: Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑10k leads the desk at 19.1% with $3K traded.
Lead stories
More electric trucks , motorbikes to deliver carbon cuts
More electric trucks , motorbikes to deliver carbon cuts. China Command Economy And Climate Growth : Centralization , Decarbonization , And Global Implications | A & O Shearman. Penguins to highlight sustainability efforts during Thursday home game.
Sources: canberratimes.com.au, jdsupra.com, wpxi.com
Michigan snow so far is nearing 200 inches at one Upper Peninsula location
Michigan snow so far is nearing 200 inches at one Upper Peninsula location.
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
98.6%
$174K
Sources: news18.com, naturalnews.com, mirror.co.uk
Oil prices will destroy Europe if Iran does not open Strait of Hormuz : Serbian President
Oil prices will destroy Europe if Iran does not open Strait of Hormuz : Serbian President. China Pleads with Iran to Keep Strait of Hormuz Open for Oil Shipments. 4 numbers that explain why the Strait of Hormuz is so crucial in Iran war - National.
Sources: moneycontrol.com, breitbart.com, globalnews.ca
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? - Yes at 16.4% with $4M traded.
Top volume remains in Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? - Yes.
Event leaders
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?) | 16.4% | $4M
Top volume & odds: Mojtaba Khamenei | 60.6% | $4M
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?
Top volume: March 31 | 71.0% | $3M
Top odds: December 31 | 78.0%
5.6%
—
$7M
—
Republican nominee
Event volume $351M
Presidential election
Event volume $361M
Galvanized Profiles Market Forecast to Grow at 5 . 4 % CAGR Through
Galvanized Profiles Market Forecast to Grow at 5 . 4 % CAGR Through. GXO Celebrates 20 Years of Growth in Poland Fueled by Innovation and Community Impact. Thor Is a Strong Operator and Leading Recreational Vehicle Maker.
Sources: openpr.com, manilatimes.net, morningstar.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Fed decision in March? - No change at 98.4% with $2M traded.
Top volume remains in Fed decision in March? - No change.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: No change | 98.4% | $2M
Top volume: Apple | 4.6% | $38K
Top odds: Largest Company end of March? | 94.0%
What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of June?
Top volume: ↑ $8,500 | 5.0% | $21K
Top odds: ↑ $5,500 | 76.3%
Popular events
Prediction : Nvidia Feb . 25 Earnings Report Just Proved Why It Will Be the Best - Performing Magnificent Seven Stock.... After Iran strikes , Google , OpenAI employees demand limits on military AI contracts. Elon Musk Calls Other AI Platforms Weak Sauce and Claims Grok Is the Only Unwoke AI.
Sources: fool.com, moneycontrol.com, ibtimes.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ? - $1.2T at 41.0% with $163K traded.
Top volume remains in OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ? - $1.2T.
Event leaders
Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Viking Therapeutics | 61.0% | $123K
Which company has the best AI model end of March?
Top volume: DeepSeek | 3.3% | $56K
Top odds: Anthropic | 63.8%
Which company has best AI model end of June?
Top volume: Alibaba | 1.3% | $30K
Top odds: Anthropic | 39.6%
Inside Fan Bingbing Net Worth Fame , Fortune , and the Tax Scandal That Shook China
Inside Fan Bingbing Net Worth Fame , Fortune , and the Tax Scandal That Shook China. Planet Classroom Launches March Film Slate on Youth Mental Health , Indigenous Storytelling , Sustainable Fashion , A.... Why TV is Not a Lower Art than Film | Arts | The Harvard Crimson.
Sources: financial-news.co.uk, prnewswire.com, thecrimson.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes at 3.9% with $1M traded.
Top volume remains in Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes.
Event leaders
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 3.9% | $1M
GTA VI released before June 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (GTA VI released before June 2026?) | 2.4% | $630K
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?) | 19.0% | $387K
Oscars 2026: Best Actor Winner
Top volume: Michael B. Jordan | 34.1% | $73K
Top odds: Timothée Chalamet | 52.0%
Top volume & odds: Finland | 29.6% | $68K
Popular events
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, finance.yahoo.com, cointelegraph.com
Like riding a bike : Oscar nominee Ethan Hawke on the magic of Blue Moon
Like riding a bike : Oscar nominee Ethan Hawke on the magic of Blue Moon. Like riding a bike : Oscar nominee Ethan Hawke on the magic of Blue Moon.
Sources: elkharttruth.com, heraldpalladium.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by What price will Bitcoin hit in March? - ↓ 65,000 at 73.7% with $624K traded.
Top volume remains in What price will Bitcoin hit in March? - ↓ 65,000.
Event leaders
What price will Bitcoin hit in March?
Top volume & odds: ↓ 65,000 | 73.7% | $624K
Opensea FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Top volume & odds: $500M | 68.1% | $106K
Top volume: June 30, 2026 | 6.0% | $74K
Top odds: December 31, 2026 | 18.0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch?
Top volume: >$3B | 7.7% | $67K
Top odds: >$800M | 68.0%
Popular events
Trail Blazers vs . Grizzlies Injury Report – March 4 | Rip City Radio 620 Portland
Trail Blazers vs . Grizzlies Injury Report – March 4 | Rip City Radio 620 Portland. The Bizarre Stat That Sums Up Why the Chicago Bulls Went in a New Direction. Stars are aligning for Suns to reach once - unthinkable feat with Booker return.
Sources: ripcityradio.iheart.com, si.com, valleyofthesuns.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by UEFA Champions League Winner - Tottenham at 1.8% with $1M traded.
Top volume remains in UEFA Champions League Winner - Tottenham.
Event leaders
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs
Top volume & odds: Bilibili Gaming | 86.0% | $171K
Top volume & odds: Nuggets | 72.0% | $3K
Top volume & odds: Bucks | 65.0% | $1K
Popular events
Sources: yahoo.com
More electric trucks , motorbikes to deliver carbon cuts
More electric trucks , motorbikes to deliver carbon cuts. More electric trucks , motorbikes to deliver carbon cuts. More electric trucks , motorbikes to deliver carbon cuts.
Sources: maitlandmercury.com.au, yasstribune.com.au, muswellbrookchronicle.com.au
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑10k at 19.1% with $3K traded.
Top volume remains in Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑10k.
Event leaders
Popular events
+$7,692
+$1,992
+$1,308
Kalshi via Jupiter
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