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News Meets Markets
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Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "US strikes Iran by...?" Event volume totals $56M across outcomes, with $13M traded in the last 24 hours. Highest implied odds are for "June 30" at 64.0%, with top volume on "February 28" at 28.0% and $5M 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Fed decision in March?" Highest implied odds are for "No change" at 93.0%, with top volume on "25 bps decrease" at 6.0% and $581K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
US strikes Iran by...? - February 28
$5M
Highest implied
How much spending will DOGE cut in 2025? - <$50B
98.9%
Top priced
How much spending will DOGE cut in 2025? - <$50B
98.9%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: US strikes Iran by...? - February 28 leads the desk at 28.0% with $5M traded.
Lead stories
US Iran tensions live updates : US deploys over 50 fighter jets near Iran , says report
US Iran tensions live updates : US deploys over 50 fighter jets near Iran , says report.
Sources: hindustantimes.com
Trump Economic Advisor Says Fed Writers Should Be Disciplined for Tariff Views
Trump Economic Advisor Says Fed Writers Should Be Disciplined for Tariff Views. Over 20 countries will attend Trump Board of Peace meeting on Thursday , White House says. FCC chair backs Nexstar proposed acquisition of TEGNA after Trump public support.
Sources: ,
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner, Senate control 2026.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $679M+1%
B3
Lead market: Fed decision in March? - 25 bps decrease leads the desk at 6.0% with $581K traded.
Lead stories
U . S . Treasury yields : investors await Fed meeting minutes
U . S . Treasury yields : investors await Fed meeting minutes. Fed signals rate hikes possible if inflation stays elevated above target. Fed Minutes Show Division as Rate Cuts Remain on the Table.
Sources: cnbc.com, foxbusiness.com, investopedia.com
How the Largest Buffer ETF Providers Stack Up
How the Largest Buffer ETF Providers Stack Up. Budweiser and Heineken face polar opposite fates in China as punters favour home comforts. Nvidia touts India deals at AI summit.
B4
Lead market: Which company has the best AI model end of February? - Google leads the desk at 14.0% with $955K traded.
Lead stories
Musk Says Grok Must Win AI Race As He Rails Against Woke Rivals
Musk Says Grok Must Win AI Race As He Rails Against Woke Rivals. XAI Grok 4 . 20 Makes Scheduling Repeated Monitoring Easy for Up to 200 Queries. Saudi Humain invested $3 billion in xAI Series E funding round.
Sources: forbes.com, nextbigfuture.com, thestar.com.my
B5
Lead market: GTA VI released before June 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 3.0% with $1M traded.
Lead stories
Are Keegan - Michael Key and Jordan Peele reuniting ? Star speaks out
Are Keegan - Michael Key and Jordan Peele reuniting ? Star speaks out. DealMaker and Dolphin Partner to Unlock Community Capital for Celebrity and Influencer Brands. DealMaker and Dolphin Partner to Unlock Community Capital for Celebrity and Influencer Brands.
Sources: cnycentral.com, hawaiitelegraph.com, californiatelegraph.com
B6
Lead market: What price will Bitcoin hit in February? - ↑ 75,000 leads the desk at 19.0% with $420K traded.
Lead stories
Jane Street Boosts Bitcoin Exposure with $276M IBIT Acquisition
Jane Street Boosts Bitcoin Exposure with $276M IBIT Acquisition. $10 , 000 in XRP or Bitcoin for 2026 ? 3 AI Models Pick the Winner. Bitcoin Price Dips Toward Decisive Support As Bears Regain Control.
Sources: coinspeaker.com, 247wallst.com, newsbtc.com
B7
Lead market: UEFA Champions League Winner - Inter leads the desk at 2.1% with $692K traded.
Lead stories
Manchester United midfield – Part 2 : Who should they sign to replace Casemiro ?
Manchester United midfield – Part 2 : Who should they sign to replace Casemiro ?. Bodo / Glimt Beat Inter Milan 3 - 1 In Champions League. Substitute Desire Doue inspires PSG comeback at Monaco.
Sources: nytimes.com, channelstv.com, myjoyonline.com
Belarusian Hanna Huskova through to Olympic aerials skiing final
Belarusian Hanna Huskova through to Olympic aerials skiing final. Where to watch Women 2026 Winter Olympics Freestyle Skiing Aerials livestream for free today. Winter Olympics Day 12 Results : Shiffrin Makes History , Canada Avoids Upset.
B8
Lead market: Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑7.5k leads the desk at 35.0% with $4K traded.
Lead stories
Renewable Energy Market to Reach USD 2 . 5 Trillion by 2033 Globally , at 8 . 5 % CAGR , Says Allied Market Research. Renewable Energy Market to Reach USD 2 . 5 Trillion by 2033 Globally , at 8 . 5 % CAGR , Says Allied Market Research. Space - Based Solar Power Will Be Economically Viable by 2040.
Sources: finanznachrichten.de, prnewswire.com, oilprice.com
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
98.3%
$135K
US says meaningful progres made as Ukraine talks enter second day
US says meaningful progres made as Ukraine talks enter second day. Ukraine sanctions Belaru Lukashenka , saying he will face special consequences. Ukraine , Russia continue peace talks amid Trump pressure.
Sources: bbc.co.uk, euronews.com, rte.ie
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by US strikes Iran by...? - February 28 at 28.0% with $5M traded.
Top volume remains in US strikes Iran by...? - February 28.
Event leaders
Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?
Top volume: Judy Shelton | 3.6% | $1M
Top odds: Kevin Warsh | 94.3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?) | 3.2% | $1M
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?) | 23.0% | $1M
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?) | 6.0% | $719K
Popular events
5.9%
-0.1pp
$6M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $308M+1%
Presidential election
Event volume $302M+1%
Sources: morningstar.com, scmp.com, taipeitimes.com
Gold , Silver Rate Today Live Updates : Gold , silver prices well below record highs ; what the outlook now ?. Gold hits $5 , 600 an ounce and silver surges 300 % as metal prices reach record highs. Ghana gold output hits record 6 - million ounces in 2025.
Sources: timesofindia.indiatimes.com, click2houston.com, timeslive.co.za
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Fed decision in March? - 25 bps decrease at 6.0% with $581K traded.
Top volume remains in Fed decision in March? - 25 bps decrease.
Event leaders
Largest Company End of February?
Top volume & odds: Largest Company End of February? | 98.3% | $135K
What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of February?
Top volume: ↑ $5,500 | 5.7% | $49K
Top odds: ↓ $4,600 | 10.5%
Popular events
Apple Is Adding ChatGPT , Claude , and Gemini to CarPlay in iOS 26 . 4. Another Essay Suggesting the AI Disruption Is Here. OpenAI Researches AI Agents Detecting Smart Contract Flaws.
Sources: lifehacker.com, hotair.com, cointelegraph.com
Musk courts Korea chip talent for AI push - The Korea Herald
Musk courts Korea chip talent for AI push - The Korea Herald. Humain unveils $3B investment in xAI ahead of SpaceX merger ( X . AI : Private ). Anthropic , the AI start - up that dares to defy Donald Trump.
Sources: koreaherald.com, seekingalpha.com, lemonde.fr
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Which company has the best AI model end of February? - Google at 14.0% with $955K traded.
Top volume remains in Which company has the best AI model end of February? - Google.
Lead event
Which company has the best AI model end of February? - Google
Trading at 14.0% with $955K in volume.
Event leaders
Which company has the best AI model end of February?
Top volume: Google | 14.0% | $955K
Top odds: Anthropic | 82.4%
Which company has the best AI model end of March?
Top volume: DeepSeek | 1.8% | $10K
Top odds: Google | 54.0%
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?) | 3.4% | $8K
Popular events
DealMaker and Dolphin Partner to Unlock Community Capital for Celebrity and Influencer Brands. Priyanka Chopra and Nick Jonas arrived hand - in - hand at the LA premiere of The Bluff in coordinated brown outfits. Do you remove the liquid that forms over curd ? Surgeon explains why you shouldnt.
Mission News | Graham Preaches as Hundreds Commit to Christ in Argentina
Mission News | Graham Preaches as Hundreds Commit to Christ in Argentina. Believer baptism or baptismal regeneration ?. The Resurrection of the Christ set photos revealed.
Sources: christianitydaily.com, postandcourier.com, joblo.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by GTA VI released before June 2026? - Yes at 3.0% with $1M traded.
Top volume remains in GTA VI released before June 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
GTA VI released before June 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (GTA VI released before June 2026?) | 3.0% | $1M
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?) | 12.0% | $486K
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 3.5% | $320K
Oscars 2026: Best Picture Winner
Top volume: Marty Supreme | 2.8% | $72K
Top odds: One Battle After Another | 75.0%
Who will win the Beast Games: Season 2?
Top volume & odds: 167 | 92.2% | $34K
Popular events
Tianrong Internet Products and Services Inc . ( TIPS ) Announces Successful Graduation of DEPIN Token for Depinfer an.... AP Trending SummaryBrief at 2 : 25 p . m . EST.
Sources: manilatimes.net, bakersfield.com
12 best places in the world to see cherry blossoms
12 best places in the world to see cherry blossoms.
Sources: thepointsguy.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by What price will Bitcoin hit in February? - ↑ 75,000 at 19.0% with $420K traded.
Top volume remains in What price will Bitcoin hit in February? - ↑ 75,000.
Event leaders
What price will Bitcoin hit in February?
Top volume: ↑ 75,000 | 19.0% | $420K
Top odds: ↓ 60,000 | 29.0%
Flying Tulip FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Top volume: $800M | 79.0% | $154K
Top odds: $400M | 91.6%
What price will Ethereum hit in February?
Top volume & odds: ↓ 1,600 | 15.3% | $74K
Popular events
Sources: sb.by, mlive.com, newsradio1170.iheart.com
Nuggets mourn Doug Moe , the motion - offense pioneer who helped change the NBA
Nuggets mourn Doug Moe , the motion - offense pioneer who helped change the NBA. Nuggets news : Nikola Jokic blasts haters who question his drive : I care a lot. Revived Clippers take on Nuggets after All - Star interlude.
Sources: durangoherald.com, clutchpoints.com, bignewsnetwork.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by UEFA Champions League Winner - Inter at 2.1% with $692K traded.
Top volume remains in UEFA Champions League Winner - Inter.
Event leaders
2026 Winter Olympics: Ice Hockey Gold Medal Winner
Top volume: Slovakia | 1.9% | $258K
Top odds: Canada | 48.0%
Top volume & odds: Nuggets | 71.0% | $38K
Champions League: Which teams advance to round of 16?
Top volume: Bodø/Glimt | 52.7% | $12K
Top odds: Paris Saint-Germain | 96.1%
Top volume & odds: Bucks | 66.0% | $2K
Popular events
UEFA Champions League Winner - Inter
Vol $692K
Vol $38K
Environmental groups sue EPA over climate regulation rollbacks : Politics overriding science | WFAE 90 . 7. Environmental groups sue EPA over climate regulation rollbacks : Politics overriding science. Environmental groups sue EPA over climate regulation rollbacks : Politics overriding science.
Sources: wfae.org, publicradioeast.org, wunc.org
Climate change is already costing Colorado . A new report estimates how much the costs will rise through 2050 .. Environmental Groups Challenge Decision to Revoke Basis of Climate Regulations. Fear over farmland loss is slowing renewable energy development in rural areas.
Sources: vaildaily.com, insurancejournal.com, santafenewmexican.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑7.5k at 35.0% with $4K traded.
Top volume remains in Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑7.5k.
Event leaders
Popular events
+$3,573
+$3,480
+$3,370
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
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