Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Another US government shutdown by February 14?" Event volume totals $7M across outcomes, with $5M traded in the last 24 hours. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Another US government shutdown by February 14?)" at 25.4% and $5M 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Fed decision in March?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "No change" at 93.0% and $961K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Another US government shutdown by February 14? - Yes
$5M
Highest implied
Bitcoin above ___ on February 13? - 62,000
98.9%
Top priced
Bitcoin above ___ on February 13? - 62,000
98.9%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: Another US government shutdown by February 14? - Yes leads the desk at 25.4% with $5M traded.
Lead stories
How faith leaders can help prevent war with Iran
How faith leaders can help prevent war with Iran. NTR Statue In Ameerpet , Deserves Bharat Ratna : CM Revanth @ Delhi !. America First In Myanmar Means Rejecting China Election Ploy.
Sources: religionnews.com, gulte.com, menafn.com
Trump opens up about the big mistake he made in first term : Sometimes you listen to people
Trump opens up about the big mistake he made in first term : Sometimes you listen to people. GOP senator says he open to compromise on Trump nominee to chair the Federal Reserve. GOP senator says he open to compromise on Trump nominee to chair the Federal Reserve.
B2
Awaiting market data for Thailand election winner, Senate control 2026.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $648M+1%
B3
Lead market: Fed decision in March? - No change leads the desk at 93.0% with $961K traded.
Lead stories
How much power does the Fed chair really have ?
How much power does the Fed chair really have ?. Live Updates : Jobs Report Set for Rare Wednesday Release. How much power does the Fed chair really have ?.
Sources: npr.org, businessinsider.com, kpbs.org
Snowboarder Choi Ga - on pulls off stellar comeback to win Korea first Olympic gold in snow event
Snowboarder Choi Ga - on pulls off stellar comeback to win Korea first Olympic gold in snow event. Snowboarder Choi Ga - on pulls off stellar comeback to win Korea first Olympic gold in snow event. Snowboarder Choi Ga - on pulls off stellar comeback to win Korea first Olympic gold in snow event.
B4
Lead market: Which company has the best AI model end of February? - OpenAI leads the desk at 3.1% with $69K traded.
Lead stories
Fortune Tech : AI market share , Amazon earnings , OpenAI new model
Fortune Tech : AI market share , Amazon earnings , OpenAI new model. Anthropic hits a $380B valuation as it heightens competition with OpenAI. Anthropic hits a $380B valuation as it heightens competition with OpenAI.
Sources: fortune.com, livemint.com, baltimoresun.com
Risk off trade on more AI disruption fears - Newsquawk US Market Wrap
Risk off trade on more AI disruption fears - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
Sources:
B5
Lead market: Oscars 2026: Best Picture Winner - Sinners leads the desk at 14.7% with $205K traded.
Lead stories
Live After the Oscars® Show VIP Giveaway | Contests
Live After the Oscars® Show VIP Giveaway | Contests. Michelle Yeoh Gives Her Wicked : For Good Oscars Snub Theory. Paul Thomas Anderson wins at 78th Directors Guild Awards for One Battle After Another.
Sources: wdrb.com, realitytea.com, abcnews.com
The 2026 World Watch List Reminds Us To Pray
The 2026 World Watch List Reminds Us To Pray. The Surprising Skill MAGA Christians Say Is Sinful. Church of Jesus Christ of Latter - day Saints announces new apostle.
B6
Lead market: What price will Bitcoin hit in February? - ↑ 90,000 leads the desk at 1.9% with $272K traded.
Lead stories
Panic Mode $10 , 000 Bitcoin Price Crash Warning Suddenly Triggers Huge BlackRock Earthquake
Panic Mode $10 , 000 Bitcoin Price Crash Warning Suddenly Triggers Huge BlackRock Earthquake. Bitcoin Price Plunges 50 %, Drawdown Nears FTX - Era Crash. Prediction : Bitcoin Will Hit $100 , 000 in 2026.
Sources: forbes.com, bitcoinmagazine.com, finance.yahoo.com
Bitcoin Price Just Hit A 15 - Year Trendline After The Crash , What This Means
Bitcoin Price Just Hit A 15 - Year Trendline After The Crash , What This Means. Bitcoin MVRV Falls Into 0 – 10 % Zone Is A Recovery Underway ?. Bitcoin Cash Surges As Bitcoin Reclaims $70 , 000.
B7
Lead market: UEFA Champions League Winner - Inter leads the desk at 3.0% with $268K traded.
Lead stories
Holders PSG brace for tough run
Holders PSG brace for tough run. You Ask The Questions : Fabinho answers YOUR questions. Father of Alexis Mac Allister sparks Liverpool exit speculations with fresh comments.
Sources: tribune.com.pk, fourfourtwo.com, caughtoffside.com
Maverick Anthony Davis trade was a move few saw coming , including Rich Paul
Maverick Anthony Davis trade was a move few saw coming , including Rich Paul. Anthony Davi first visit with Wizards was great , but he got questions. Sources : New Washington Wizards Star Anthony Davis Didnt Undergo Hand Surgery With Dallas Mavericks.
B8
Lead market: Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑5k leads the desk at 59.0% with $4K traded.
Lead stories
Measles cases in Florida rise as officials monitor outbreak at Ave Maria University , 2 cases at UF - WSVN 7News | Mi....
Sources: wsvn.com
Nevada nowhere near meeting 2030 greenhouse gas emission goal
Nevada nowhere near meeting 2030 greenhouse gas emission goal. Solar Set to Surpass Coal in China , But There a Catch. Europe Biochar from Woody Biomass Market Analysis , Trends , and Forecast.
Sources: thenevadaindependent.com,
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑2k
98.8%
$123
Sources: marketrealist.com, clickondetroit.com, mynorthwest.com
Iran says US GBU - 57 bombs and Tomahawk missiles remain at nuclear sites , alarms Washington and Israel.
Sources: zeenews.india.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Another US government shutdown by February 14? - Yes at 25.4% with $5M traded.
Top volume remains in Another US government shutdown by February 14? - Yes.
Event leaders
Another US government shutdown by February 14?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Another US government shutdown by February 14?) | 25.4% | $5M
Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?
Top volume: Judy Shelton | 4.5% | $2M
Top odds: Kevin Warsh | 94.5%
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Top volume: Rahm Emanuel | 1.9% | $397K
Top odds: Gavin Newsom | 27.0%
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Top volume: Tulsi Gabbard | 1.2% | $343K
Top odds: J.D. Vance | 48.0%
Popular events
5.3%
0.0pp
$4M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $280M+1%
Presidential election
Event volume $284M+2%
Sources: english.hani.co.kr, english.hani.co.kr, hani.co.kr
Dublin Students Organize Regional Robotics Championship
Dublin Students Organize Regional Robotics Championship. Exelon sees strong 2026 , tops quarterly estimates on higher rates , demand. Deutsche Börse to acquire remaining stake in ISS Stoxx for €1 . 1bn.
Sources: patch.com, marketscreener.com, finance.yahoo.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Fed decision in March? - No change at 93.0% with $961K traded.
Top volume remains in Fed decision in March? - No change.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: No change | 93.0% | $961K
What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of February?
Top volume: ↑ $6,000 | 1.9% | $137K
Top odds: ↓ $4,600 | 25.0%
Largest Company End of February?
Top volume & odds: Largest Company End of February? | 97.0% | $101K
Popular events
Anthropic hits a $380B valuation as it heightens competition with OpenAI
Anthropic hits a $380B valuation as it heightens competition with OpenAI. Anthropic hits a $380B valuation as it heightens competition with OpenAI. Anthropic hits a $380B valuation as it heightens competition with OpenAI.
Sources: orlandosentinel.com, clickondetroit.com, courant.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Which company has the best AI model end of February? - OpenAI at 3.1% with $69K traded.
Top volume remains in Which company has the best AI model end of February? - OpenAI.
Lead event
Which company has the best AI model end of February? - OpenAI
Trading at 3.1% with $69K in volume.
Event leaders
Which company has the best AI model end of February?
Top volume: OpenAI | 3.1% | $69K
Top odds: Anthropic | 75.4%
Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
Top volume: Anthropic | 16.0% | $9K
Top odds: Ubisoft | 47.0%
Sources: patheos.com, yahoo.com, eastidahonews.com
Apple Turned Bad Bunny Bowl into a Shot on iPhone Party
Apple Turned Bad Bunny Bowl into a Shot on iPhone Party. Postscript : Bad Bunny halftime show bombed with its audience. Bad Bunny gets first solo united kingdom Top 10 hits thanks to Super Bowl boost.
Sources: adweek.com, americanthinker.com, theguardian.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Oscars 2026: Best Picture Winner - Sinners at 14.7% with $205K traded.
Top volume remains in Oscars 2026: Best Picture Winner - Sinners.
Event leaders
Oscars 2026: Best Picture Winner
Top volume: Sinners | 14.7% | $205K
Top odds: One Battle After Another | 75.0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 3.7% | $63K
# of views on Bad Bunny halftime show (YouTube) in week 1?
Top volume: # of views on Bad Bunny halftime show (YouTube) in week 1? | 29.7% | $48K
Top odds: # of views on Bad Bunny halftime show (YouTube) in week 1? | 66.0%
Oscars 2026: Best Actor Winner
Top volume: Leonardo DiCaprio | 9.0% | $27K
Top odds: Timothée Chalamet | 78.0%
Popular events
Sources: newsbtc.com, newsbtc.com, benzinga.com
Bitcoin Sentiment Worst Since 2022 Bear As Price Crash Continues
Bitcoin Sentiment Worst Since 2022 Bear As Price Crash Continues. Macro Accomodative Policie May Not Be The Next Big Catalyst For Bitcoin. MicroStrategy Is Now Down $4 . 5 Billion On Its $54 Billion Bitcoin Investment : What Does This Mean For Investors ?.
Sources: newsbtc.com, cointelegraph.com, finance.yahoo.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by What price will Bitcoin hit in February? - ↑ 90,000 at 1.9% with $272K traded.
Top volume remains in What price will Bitcoin hit in February? - ↑ 90,000.
Event leaders
What price will Bitcoin hit in February?
Top volume: ↑ 90,000 | 1.9% | $272K
Top odds: ↓ 60,000 | 44.0%
Popular events
Sources: nytimes.com, nytimes.com, yardbarker.com
AP photographer captures defining photos of Lindsey Vonn downhill crash at the Winter Olympics
AP photographer captures defining photos of Lindsey Vonn downhill crash at the Winter Olympics. Lancashire Tourism Awards 2026 - full list of winners. Czech teen Jilek wins men 10 , 000m speed skating gold at Milan - Cortina.
Sources: ap.org, lancashiretelegraph.co.uk, thestar.com.my
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by UEFA Champions League Winner - Inter at 3.0% with $268K traded.
Top volume remains in UEFA Champions League Winner - Inter.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Lakers | 69.0% | $193K
2026 Winter Olympics: Ice Hockey Gold Medal Winner
Top volume: Finland | 5.0% | $52K
Top odds: Canada | 49.0%
Top volume & odds: AC Milan | 62.0% | $51K
Top volume & odds: Nuggets | 68.0% | $6K
Popular events
UEFA Champions League Winner - Inter
Vol $268K
Vol $193K
Biomass Power Generation Market Growth Driven by Renewable Energy Transition
Biomass Power Generation Market Growth Driven by Renewable Energy Transition. Landfill Delivers Major Greenhouse Gas Reductions. ECA sub - regional office for southern Africa transitions to clean energy with ground - breaking hybrid solar system.
Sources: briefingwire.com, miragenews.com, uneca.org
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑5k at 59.0% with $4K traded.
Top volume remains in Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑5k.
Event leaders
Popular events
+$3,480
+$3,370
+$3,361
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
Leaderboard