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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?" Event volume totals $457M across outcomes, with $7M traded in the last 24 hours. Highest implied odds are for "Kevin Warsh" at 95.0%, with top volume on "Judy Shelton" at 4.0% and $3M 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Fed decision in March?" Highest implied odds are for "No change" at 92.0%, with top volume on "25 bps decrease" at 7.0% and $2M 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? - Judy Shelton
$3M
Highest implied
# of views of next MrBeast video on week 1? - <60M
98.8%
Top priced
# of views of next MrBeast video on week 1? - <60M
98.8%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? - Judy Shelton leads the desk at 4.0% with $3M traded.
Lead stories
Lawmakers Urge Trump Admin to Exercise Leverage Over China With Chipmaking Equipment Controls
Lawmakers Urge Trump Admin to Exercise Leverage Over China With Chipmaking Equipment Controls. Trump says his new Fed chair pick will boost US economy by 15 %: I think more than that. Up First briefing : Nancy Guthrie ; DHS ; Pam Bondi ; Trump and Netanyahu : NPR.
Sources: theepochtimes.com, marketrealist.com, npr.org
B2
Awaiting market data for Thailand election winner, Senate control 2026.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $643M+1%
B3
Lead market: Fed decision in March? - 25 bps decrease leads the desk at 7.0% with $2M traded.
Lead stories
Live Updates : Jobs Report Set for Rare Wednesday Release
Live Updates : Jobs Report Set for Rare Wednesday Release. Delayed CPI Report to Show Persistent Inflation. FinancialContent - The Data Drought Ends : January Jobs Report Arrives Amid Shutdown Shadows and Fed Pivot Hopes.
Sources: businessinsider.com, morningstar.com, markets.financialcontent.com
Commonwealth Bank Shares Surge by Most in Six Years on Profit Beat
Commonwealth Bank Shares Surge by Most in Six Years on Profit Beat. Insulated Metal Panels Market worth $17 . 13 billion by 2030 - Exclusive Report by MarketsandMarkets. Blu - ray wind - down continues - Sony ends production of recordable players.
B4
Lead market: Which company has the best AI model end of February? - Google leads the desk at 26.0% with $330K traded.
Lead stories
Musk reorganizes xAI after SpaceX merger and ahead of blockbuster IPO
Musk reorganizes xAI after SpaceX merger and ahead of blockbuster IPO. AI researchers are sounding the alarm on their way out the door. VCs break taboo by backing both Anthropic , OpenAI in AI battle.
Sources: thestar.com.my, edition.cnn.com, economictimes.indiatimes.com
Monday stocks from analyst calls like Nvidia
Monday stocks from analyst calls like Nvidia.
B5
Lead market: GTA VI released before June 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 3.2% with $2M traded.
Lead stories
First - Ever Long Island Music and Entertainment Hall of Fame Documentary Film Festival Legacy Award Presented to Mus.... Chris Hemsworth had to bribe his daughter to appear in Avengers : Doomsday. Chris Hemsworth had to bribe his daughter to appear in Avengers : Doomsday.
Sources: longisland.com, wcti12.com, katv.com
B6
Lead market: What price will Bitcoin hit in February? - ↓ 50,000 leads the desk at 8.5% with $315K traded.
Lead stories
Strategy ( MSTR ) Stock Jumps 33 % on Revenue and Bitcoin Boost Can the Rally Hold ?
Strategy ( MSTR ) Stock Jumps 33 % on Revenue and Bitcoin Boost Can the Rally Hold ?. Bitcoin Price Craters Near $60 , 000 , Eyes Multi - Month Bottom. IBIT Vs FBTC : Bitcoin ETF Battle Heats Up After Goldman Bet - Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund ( BATS : FBTC ), iSh....
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, bitcoinmagazine.com, benzinga.com
B7
Lead market: Thunder leads the desk at 89.0% with $270K traded.
Lead stories
NBA Hall of Famers . A Splash Father . Inside the single 3 - pointer club
NBA Hall of Famers . A Splash Father . Inside the single 3 - pointer club. Thunder vs . Suns Predictions , Odds & Stats – Feb . 11. Thunder vs . Suns Time , TV & Stream – Feb . 11.
Sources: nytimes.com, foxsportsabq.iheart.com, foxsports1450.iheart.com
Grizzlies vs Nuggets Prediction , Picks & Odds for Tonight NBA Game
Grizzlies vs Nuggets Prediction , Picks & Odds for Tonight NBA Game. Nikola Jokic posts triple - double to carry Nuggets past Grizzlies. Nikola Jokic posts triple - double to carry Nuggets past Grizzlies.
B8
Lead market: Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑7.5k leads the desk at 39.0% with $9K traded.
Lead stories
Bangkok Post - Carbon rules reshape Thai business as CBAM looms
Bangkok Post - Carbon rules reshape Thai business as CBAM looms. Clear Horizons Act and New Mexico climate policy : Opinion on energy , emissions and green agendas. North America Green Hydrogen Market Growth Report and Forecast 2026 – 2035.
Sources: bangkokpost.com, abqjournal.com, briefingwire.com
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
98.7%
$14K
Iran vows to resist US pressure on its nuclear programme. Iran President Asserts Nation Will Not Succumb to Excessive Demands. Live : Israel Netanyahu set to pressure Trump over Iran at White House meeting.
Sources: punchng.com, deccanchronicle.com, france24.com
Trump tariffs ; U . S . House backs resolution to end tariffs
Trump tariffs ; U . S . House backs resolution to end tariffs. Stephen A . Smith tells Democrats stop wasting our time with impeaching Trump. Netanyahu announces Israel will join Trump Board of Peace.
Sources: bnnbloomberg.ca, washingtonexaminer.com, freemalaysiatoday.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? - Judy Shelton at 4.0% with $3M traded.
Top volume remains in Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? - Judy Shelton.
Event leaders
Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?
Top volume: Judy Shelton | 4.0% | $3M
Top odds: Kevin Warsh | 95.0%
How many people will Trump deport in 2025?
Top volume & odds: 250-500k | 90.9% | $1M
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by March 31, 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by March 31, 2026?) | 4.6% | $461K
5.6%
+0.6pp
$4M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $276M+1%
Presidential election
Event volume $279M+1%
Sources: marketscreener.com, finanznachrichten.de, afterdawn.com
Fed to hold rates through May , but Warsh may be too loose with policy , economists say
Fed to hold rates through May , but Warsh may be too loose with policy , economists say. Fed to hold rates through May , but Warsh may be too loose with policy , economists say. How Do Federal Reserve Rates Impact APY ?.
Sources: economictimes.indiatimes.com, theglobeandmail.com, gobankingrates.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Fed decision in March? - 25 bps decrease at 7.0% with $2M traded.
Top volume remains in Fed decision in March? - 25 bps decrease.
Event leaders
Largest Company End of February?
Top volume: Apple | 2.0% | $130K
Top odds: Largest Company End of February? | 96.4%
What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of February?
Top volume: ↑ $5,500 | 13.8% | $60K
Top odds: ↓ $4,600 | 26.9%
Will Silver (SI) hit__ by end of February?
Top volume & odds: ↓ $75 | 58.9% | $56K
Popular events
Sources: cnbc.com
Meet Amanda Askell the philosopher teaching Claude AI difference between right and wrong
Meet Amanda Askell the philosopher teaching Claude AI difference between right and wrong. AI Worries Led to Piper Sandler Downgrade on Vertex. AI safety researcher quits with a cryptic warning.
Sources: firstpost.com, insidermonkey.com, bignewsnetwork.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Which company has the best AI model end of February? - Google at 26.0% with $330K traded.
Top volume remains in Which company has the best AI model end of February? - Google.
Lead event
Which company has the best AI model end of February? - Google
Trading at 26.0% with $330K in volume.
Event leaders
Which company has the best AI model end of February?
Top volume: Google | 26.0% | $330K
Top odds: Anthropic | 69.7%
Logan Paul 1st edition Charizard Sale Price?
Top volume & odds: >600k | 98.7% | $14K
Popular events
Which Book of the Bible Best Explains the Gospel ? - Explore the Bible. Latter - day Saints temple planned for Suffolk , church announces. Air1 Verse of the Day | Air1 Worship Music.
Sources: biblestudytools.com, 13newsnow.com, air1.com
James Rodríguez interview : The gasoline that fuels him and the truth about playing in the cold
James Rodríguez interview : The gasoline that fuels him and the truth about playing in the cold. Texas and Sarkisian cant miss again ; why NDSU jump to FBS makes sense : Mandel Mailbag. Protesters press Target to oppose immigration crackdown in Minnesota.
Sources: nytimes.com, nytimes.com, pilotonline.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by GTA VI released before June 2026? - Yes at 3.2% with $2M traded.
Top volume remains in GTA VI released before June 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
GTA VI released before June 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (GTA VI released before June 2026?) | 3.2% | $2M
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 3.9% | $332K
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by...?
Top volume: June 30, 2026 | 38.0% | $94K
Top odds: December 31, 2026 | 57.8%
Oscars 2026: Best Picture Winner
Top volume: Marty Supreme | 2.7% | $79K
Top odds: One Battle After Another | 74.0%
# of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?
Top volume & odds: <60M | 98.8% | $62K
MicroStrategy Is Now Down $4 . 5 Billion On Its $54 Billion Bitcoin Investment : What Does This Mean For Investors ?. Bitcoin Price Stuck Under $72K As Consolidation Looms : New Research .. Can Ethereum , XRP extend recovery as Bitcoin struggles to find upside strength ?.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, cointelegraph.com, fxstreet.com
Bitcoin 2026 Rally To $150K Possible If These Conditions Are Met
Bitcoin 2026 Rally To $150K Possible If These Conditions Are Met. Bitcoin Price Fails To Stabilize , Is Another Drop Imminent ?. Bitcoin Not Pumpable Right Now , Says CryptoQuant Founder : Here Why.
Sources: cointelegraph.com, newsbtc.com, newsbtc.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by What price will Bitcoin hit in February? - ↓ 50,000 at 8.5% with $315K traded.
Top volume remains in What price will Bitcoin hit in February? - ↓ 50,000.
Event leaders
What price will Bitcoin hit in February?
Top volume: ↓ 50,000 | 8.5% | $315K
Top odds: ↑ 75,000 | 37.0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ?
Top volume: March 31, 2026 | 2.0% | $82K
Top odds: December 31, 2026 | 17.0%
Popular events
Sources: covers.com, 640wxsm.com, coloradostar.com
Timberwolves Humble Trail Blazers | Rip City Radio 620 Portland
Timberwolves Humble Trail Blazers | Rip City Radio 620 Portland. Trail Blazers vs . Jazz Time , TV & Stream – Feb . 12 | FOX SPORTS 550 The ZONE. Trail Blazers vs . Jazz Time , TV & Stream – Feb . 12 | Rip City Radio 620 Portland.
Sources: ripcityradio.iheart.com, 550thezone.iheart.com, ripcityradio.iheart.com
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Thunder | 89.0% | $270K
Top volume & odds: Nuggets | 82.0% | $216K
Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves
Top volume & odds: Timberwolves | 96.0% | $214K
Top volume & odds: Pacers | 51.0% | $174K
Top volume & odds: Clippers | 61.0% | $131K
Popular events
Regional Centre for Climate Change Technologies is almost ready for launch in Ashgabat . We give here some details ab.... Microgrids Australia Renewable Energy : Powering the Outback. Annapolis expands renewable energy with community solar initiative.
Sources: newscentralasia.net, energymatters.com.au, wcbm.com
Nevada nowhere near meeting 2030 greenhouse gas emission goal
Nevada nowhere near meeting 2030 greenhouse gas emission goal. Carbon Credit Validation , Verification , and Certification Market worth $448 . 0 million in 2030. Kenya : Carbon Neutral By 2030 - Can Kenya Corporates Deliver Credible Net - Zero ?.
Sources: thenevadaindependent.com, finanznachrichten.de, allafrica.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑7.5k at 39.0% with $9K traded.
Top volume remains in Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑7.5k.
Event leaders
Popular events
+$3,480
+$3,370
+$3,361
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
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